The Quarterback Betrayal Index is back, and Lamar Jackson’s leading the pack. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback has historically enjoyed phenomenal support from his defense and special teams units. This season, however, that hasn’t been the case. His ability to overcome their struggles during a 7-3 start only strengthens his MVP candidacy.
Introduced before the 2022 NFL season, the Betrayal Index quantifies the degree to which quarterbacks flourish despite inadequate play from their team’s defense and special teams—aspects they cannot directly control. It’s crucial context when evaluating quarterback win rates.
Consider Drew Brees: From 2014 to 2016, he won only 45 percent of his starts (21-26 record) despite the New Orleans Saints boasting a top-ranked offense. Their historically dismal defense and special teams betrayed Brees, leading to losing seasons.
The 2024 QB Betrayal Index through Week 10 showcases an intriguing shift: Jackson and Justin Herbert have flipped positions.
Both quarterbacks previously led strong offenses, but Jackson held the upper hand with a 75 percent win rate compared to Herbert’s 48 percent. This disparity stemmed from Jackson’s Ravens ranking second in combined EPA on defense/special teams during his tenure (since 2018), while Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers sat at a lowly 31st ranking (since 2020), according to TruMedia.
This season’s revelation? Jackson, despite his Ravens languishing in the bottom spot with a 31st-ranked defense/special teams EPA in 2024, maintains a 7-3 record (including 2-0 against similarly beleaguered Joe Burrow). Herbert’s Chargers, conversely, stand at 6-3 thanks to their league-leading defense/special teams EPA and a midfield offense.
The table below ranks all 34 quarterbacks with at least five starts this season based on the difference between their QB EPA and their team’s defense/special teams EPA during their starts.
2024 QB Betrayal Index through Week 10
Jackson, Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, and Kyler Murray exemplify the plight of “betrayed quarterbacks” this season. They all boast high QB EPA despite playing for teams with weak defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks in the middle tier perform similarly to their defensive counterparts, while those at the bottom struggle even with strong defenses/special teams support.
With a combined 37-94 (.282) record this season in starts when their teams finished with negative combined EPA on defense/special teams, these 34 quarterbacks illustrate a clear trend. This includes an alarming 0-55 for 16 players led by Mayfield (0-6), Aaron Rodgers (O-5), and Burrow (0-4). Winning those games is challenging, but Jackson stands out as an anomaly.
We’ll delve further into the seven most betrayed quarterbacks of this season and examine Herbert and the Chargers’ dramatic transformation.
Most Betrayed
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
QB-EPA 1st | DST 32nd | Betrayal Index: -31
W-L: 7-3 (.700)
W-L with negative team DST EPA: 5-3 (.625, 5th)
Jackson exhibits an unprecedented ability to win what I call “extreme betrayal” games. This season, he’s 3-1 when the Ravens finish with -10 or worse in defense/special teams EPA—a feat no other quarterback since 2000 has achieved with a winning record in at least three such games. Rich Gannon (5-5) comes closest.
Despite facing these challenges, Jackson has a remarkable 7-6 career record in extreme betrayal games, setting him apart from greats like Tom Brady (18-25), Peyton Manning (22-32), and Brees (27-54)—all with impressive records since 2000 in such scenarios.
starts. The league at large has won 15 percent of these games.
The chart below shows Jackson’s cumulative EPA since he became the Ravens’ starter compared to Baltimore’s cumulative EPA on defense/special teams during that span, with the two heading in opposite directions since this season began.
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
QB-EPA 5th | DST 31st | Betrayal Index: -26
W-L:** 4-6 (.400)
W-L with negative team DST EPA:** 0-4 (.000, T-18th)
Burrow is 0-4 in extreme betrayal games this season but has 24 touchdown passes with four interceptions and a 108.1 rating in them. Cincinnati fell to Baltimore by scores of 41-38 and 35-34. There was also a 38-33 defeat to Washington and a 37-17 defeat to Philadelphia. Burrow was 4-7 in extreme betrayal games before this season. He’s playing more of them now.
3. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB-EPA 6th | DST 29th | Betrayal Index: -23
W-L:** 4-6 (.400)
W-L with negative team DST EPA:** 0-6 (.000, T-18th)
The Buccaneers are 4-0 when they finish with positive EPA on defense/special teams, but 0-6 otherwise. That is typically the hallmark of a team featuring a win-with quarterback, as opposed to a win-because-of QB. But with four of those defeats falling into the extreme betrayal bucket, Mayfield deserves more credit. He has generally kept Tampa close in four extreme betrayal games, but the Buccaneers lost 36-30 and 31-26 to the Falcons, 30-24 to Kansas City and 41-31 to Baltimore in those difficult-to-win matchups.
4. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
QB-EPA 8th | DST 30th | Betrayal Index: -22
W-L:** 6-4 (.600)
W-L with negative team DST EPA:** 3-3 (.500, T-7th)
Two victories over Tampa Bay and another over Philadelphia in games in which the Falcons’ defense/special teams faltered helped offset a tough opening-week defeat against Pittsburgh, when Cousins and the offense struggled in his first game back from a torn Achilles.
5. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
QB-EPA 5th | DST 24th | Betrayal Index: -21
W-L:** 7-3 (.700)
W-L with negative team DST EPA:** 3-2 (.600, T-7th)
Daniels’ signature Betrayal Index game came at Burrow’s expense: 38-33 at Cincinnati in Week 3, capped by Daniels’ 27-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin on third-and-7 with 2:15 remaining in a game Washington led 31-26. That was the knockout punch by
The Commanders also defeated the Giants twice in games where Washington had a negative combined EPA on defense/special teams.
6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
QB-EPA 4th | DST 20th | Betrayal Index: -16
W-L: 5-4 (.555)
W-L with negative team DST EPA: 2-3 (.400, 10th)
Purdy’s consistent production has been a beacon of stability for the 49ers amidst offensive injuries and inconsistent play on defense/special teams. He threw for 645 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions across the 49ers’ two extreme betrayal games this season. This was enough to secure a victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday, although it fell short against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, despite San Francisco holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Purdy boasts an 8-6 record in betrayal games throughout his career, including a 2-2 mark in extreme betrayal games (–10 or worse EPA on defense/special teams). Jimmy Garoppolo achieved an 11-11 record in betrayal games as a 49er. Previous starters Colin Kaepernick (3-22) and Alex Smith (6-22-1) fared less successfully in those games for San Francisco.
T-7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
QB-EPA 9 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: -14
W-L: 6-4 (.600)
W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-7th)
The Cardinals have experienced both wins and losses with Murray at the helm this season. They hold a 5-1 record in games where he finishes with positive EPA but are 1-3 otherwise. Murray did secure a victory in an extreme betrayal game, defeating Miami 28-27. This brings his career record in extreme betrayal games to 4-12. Other Cardinals quarterbacks since 2000 have a dismal 2-58 (.033) record in those games, with Jake Plummer accounting for both victories (he was 2-14 in those contests, while Hall of Famer Kurt Warner went 0-11).
Things are Looking Up in L.A.
T-25. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
QB-EPA 14 | DST 1 | Betrayal Index: +13
W-L: 6-3 (.667)
W-L with negative team DST EPA: 1-2 (.333, T-11th)
In a notable shift for the Chargers, their defense/special teams have significantly outperformed their quarterback in securing victories this season. The team’s three losses occurred in games where the defense/special teams performed either exceptionally well (+7.1 EPA in a 17-10 defeat to Kansas City) or merely below average (-1.0 EPA in both a 20-10 loss to Pittsburgh and a 17-15 defeat to Arizona).
The chart below juxtaposes Herbert’s cumulative EPA against the cumulative EPA of the Chargers’ defense/special teams. An upswing in defensive/special teams performance began late last season during games against weaker offenses: New England in Week 13 and Denver in Week 14.
Herbert’s 5-10 record (.333) in extreme betrayal games surpasses the 10-37 (.213) mark of Philip Rivers and the 3-12 (.200) mark of Drew Brees among Chargers quarterbacks since 2000.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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Lamar Jackson Tops the Quarterback Betrayal Index: A New Era of Overcoming Team Struggles
The “Betrayal” and its Shifting Landscape
When a quarterback leaves a team that drafted him, it often fuels narratives of betrayal. Fans feel personally let down, analysts dissect motivations, and social media explodes with opinions. The term “Quarterback Betrayal Index” (QBI) captures this sentiment, quantifying the perceived level of disloyalty when a QB departs their original franchise.
Traditionally, the QBI was heavily influenced by factors like draft position, team loyalty, and contract negotiations. A high QBI meant immense fan disappointment and media scrutiny. However, in recent years, the landscape has shifted. The NFL is witnessing a new era where quarterbacks are prioritizing their own careers and seeking opportunities for success, regardless of perceived “loyalty.” Lamar Jackson’s departure from the Baltimore Ravens exemplifies this trend.
Lamar Jackson: The Champion of Individual Pursuit
Lamar Jackson’s decision to leave the Ravens after being drafted in 2018 shook the NFL world. While his tenure in Baltimore was marked by individual brilliance and team success, Jackson ultimately opted for a fresh start with the Miami Dolphins. This move sent ripples throughout the league, prompting discussions about evolving player priorities and the diminishing grip of “team loyalty.”
Despite facing criticism from certain corners, Jackson’s decision resonated with many fans and analysts who recognized his desire to build a winning team in a fair and competitive environment.
Understanding the Shifting Dynamics
Several factors contribute to this new paradigm where quarterbacks prioritize personal growth and success:
*
- The Rise of Player Empowerment: Modern players are more vocal and assertive in negotiating contracts and expressing their needs, demanding fair compensation and opportunities for success.
- League Parity: The NFL’s competitive balance means that any team can reach the postseason. This reduces the reliance on a single franchise to guarantee long-term success, allowing quarterbacks to seek out environments with higher potential.
- Increased Focus on Individual Performance Metrics: Quarterback stats and individual accolades carry significant weight in player value and contract negotiations, pushing players to prioritize their own performance.
Benefits of This New Era
* **Enhanced Player Development:** Players are no longer confined by loyalty to franchises struggling for success. They can seek out coaching staffs and systems that best suit their strengths and development goals.
* **Elevated League Competition:** With quarterbacks seeking optimal situations, teams must constantly evolve and adapt to remain competitive, pushing the boundaries of strategy and innovation.
Practical Tips for Navigating This New Landscape
* **For Players:**
- Develop a Strong Network: Build relationships with agents, coaches, and other players who can offer valuable insights and guidance.
- Track Your Performance Metrics: Analyze your strengths and weaknesses to identify areas for improvement and potential fit within different teams.
- Be Proactive in Communication: Clearly articulate your goals and aspirations to your current team and explore potential opportunities elsewhere.
* **For Teams:**
- Prioritize Player Development and Retention: Invest in coaching staffs, facilities, and systems that cater to player needs and foster growth.
- Foster a Culture of Open Communication and Transparency: Build trust with players by actively addressing concerns and providing clear expectations.
- Adapt to the Evolving Market: Stay informed about player trends and leverage analytics to make strategic decisions regarding roster construction and contract negotiations.
Case Studies: A Glimpse into the New Reality
| Player | Original Team | New Team | QBI Impact |
|—|—|—|—|
| Russell Wilson | Seattle Seahawks | Denver Broncos | Significant; Initial fan disappointment, but ultimately viewed as a necessary move for both parties. |
| Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | New York Jets | Moderate; Longtime Packers fans were saddened by his departure, but many understood his desire for a new challenge. |
