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By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
The past two seasons have been challenging for Pittsburgh Penguins supporters, who have become accustomed to experiencing a degree of success over the last twenty years.
During the Crosby-Malkin-Letang era, the team consistently felt like a shoo-in for the playoffs. However, they now find themselves in a battle just to qualify.
Expectations for Pittsburgh this season appear to be more of the same, with one significant difference: for the first time since Sidney Crosby’s rookie year, the Penguins are positioned below the playoff cut line.
The projection
Throughout the entirety of this model’s history, the Penguins have consistently been viewed as strong contenders for the playoffs. This is partly why the last two seasons have been so underwhelming—Pittsburgh was seen as a reliable choice. In the 2022-23 season, their playoff odds were at 81 percent, dropping to 64 percent last season.
Yet, they found themselves just outside of playoff contention on both occasions. In both instances, the underlying issues were within the organization.
Compounding the situation—alongside the trade of Jake Guentzel—has placed the Penguins in uncharted territory outside the playoff picture. This outcome shouldn’t come as a shock, considering they landed in the same predicament for the last two seasons; the projected total of 89 points aligns perfectly with the Penguins’ performance over that span. What may surprise some is that Pittsburgh is still hovering around the 90-point mark.
While the Penguins’ window for competition appears to be nearly shut, their playoff opportunities remain just open enough to maintain interest. The Eastern Conference is fierce, but the teams in the middle possess enough weaknesses to keep the Penguins genuinely competitive.
It will be intriguing to see how they perform this time without the burden of lofty expectations.
The big question
Does the aging core possess sufficient energy left to compete?
Pittsburgh’s projected 90-point season is already indicative of the contributions that Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson, and Kris Letang continue to make on a nightly basis. Before addressing the overarching question, let’s consider a few smaller inquiries. Are they aging? Absolutely. Did they perform well (or exceptionally) last season? Yes. Will they likely be effective again in 2024-25? Most definitely.
In fact, they are still expected to function as above-average players relative to their positions on the roster. Crosby is set to remain a top-tier first-line center; the same goes for Malkin when evaluated against second-line centers. Karlsson and Letang, as top defensive players, also offer significant value. Having these athletes as your leading performers has never been a disadvantage.
Given this context, it would be un“`html
rookie season.
On the other hand, Malkin remains sufficiently productive at five-on-five to offset certain age-related limitations; he averaged 2.18 points per 60 last season, matching Ottawa’s Tim Stützle, all while bearing a $6.1 million cap hit. Letang, however, was the standout among Pittsburgh’s defensemen in terms of five-on-five points per 60 last season, ranking between Noah Dobson and Thomas Harley on the league scale. Despite a dip in production, Karlsson continued to have a remarkably positive impact as a puck-mover, generating shot and chance assists at a rate that surpassed nearly all other defensemen in the league.
The big question, however, ultimately must be answered with a “no.” While Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson can shine individually, and in a different context, they might well compete for a Cup — or at least come closer than seems feasible in 2024-25. This is undeniable. The deeper issue for Pittsburgh, however, is that these veteran players are not only the best on the roster; they are alarmingly close to being the only significant contributors. Together, they boast a plus-37 Net Rating. In contrast, the overall team rating is a minus-2, marking a 19-point decline from the previous year. This is stark and troubling arithmetic. A closer look reveals that only three players on the Penguins outside of the four Hall of Famers are projected to have a positive Net Rating: Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting, and Marcus Pettersson. This simply isn’t sufficient for achieving meaningful victories. Not at this moment, anyway.
In many ways, this was inevitable — a consequence of the Jim Rutherford regime’s short-sighted strategies and the depletion of role players under Ron Hextall. Kyle Dubas’ first major UFA signing, defenseman Ryan Graves, is teetering dangerously close to being a bust, yet Dubas deserves recognition for emerging from this summer with a promising future asset in Rutger McGroarty and a fair selection of low-risk lottery tickets in the bottom six. After another year of similar efforts, who knows what could happen? For now, if they can sneak into the postseason with solid goaltending and an operational power play … stranger things have indeed occurred.
More likely, however, is that Crosby and the other veterans from Pittsburgh’s ’80s generation will make the roster too good to fall into the depths of poor performance, yet the roster as a whole remains too flawed to reach greatness. There may still be enough fuel in the tank, but vehicles cannot operate on fuel alone.
The wild card
Can the Penguins rely on an improved power play?
The answer to this question is straightforward: yes. The Penguins have every reason to expect an improved power play this season, as they could hardly perform any worse. Last season, Pittsburgh generated just 5.47 goals per 60 during power plays. This performance not only placed them 30th in the league in 2023-24 but also ranked them 443rd out of 520 dating back to the 2007-08 season, marking the worst result in franchise history. It is remarkable for any team to struggle that much, particularly for a team with a reasonably solid level of talent like the Penguins.
Apart from this, it’s important to note that Pittsburgh’s power play was not entirely ineffective at creating opportunities. In fact, their expected goals per 60 were 9.88, ranking them 7th in the NHL last season and 13th in that same extensive 520-team, 16-season dataset.</p“`html
permanent incompatibility.
The strengths
In Pittsburgh, everything centers around Crosby. With his contract now settled — a perfectly poetic $8.7 million AAV — the captain is free from any distracting personal matters. His sole focus can be on capturing at least one more Cup within the next three years.
Crosby has played a crucial role in maintaining the Penguins’ relevance. Last season, he not only had one of the best performances among players aged 35 and over, but he also proved to be one of the league’s most valuable athletes. Had the competition in the Hart Trophy race not been so fierce, Crosby would likely have garnered more attention.
For the 19th consecutive season, Crosby maintained a pace exceeding one point per game, tallying 42 goals and 94 points across 82 games. This achievement is particularly notable given the numerous power-play opportunities that went uncapitalized last season. A dominant force in five-on-five situations, he consistently drives play regardless of his linemates. It’s no surprise that he tops the team with a plus-17 Offensive Rating.
Crosby retained his position in this year’s Player Tiers and continued to receive accolades from insider panels across the league.
“If I were playing a game or a playoff series tomorrow, I would likely still place Sid in that upper echelon,” one executive remarked. “Perhaps in a couple of months I might notice some decline as the season progresses. However, for the majority of the year, Sid remained elite.”
This season poses a challenge for Crosby, particularly concerning the Penguins’ left-wing depth. To his right will probably be Rust, who has harmonized effectively with the team’s pivotal player.
Although Rust isn’t the primary driver of his line, he has a keen sense of the game and complements the elite skills of his teammates. The speedy winger excels in the subtleties and possesses the finishing ability to contribute on the scoresheet. With the Player Tiers now expanded to include the top 150, Rust finally earned a well-deserved spot after narrowly missing out in previous years.
Malkin and Rickard Rakell create another robust duo beneath Crosby and Rust. Similar to Crosby, Malkin defies conventional age trends. While his performance levels have dipped in recent years, he remains a highly capable second-line center.
After the trade deadline, the Penguins had an opportunity to preview their 2024-25 second line. Bunting joined Malkin and Rakell for nearly 200 minutes of five-on-five play, yielding impressive results. Pittsburgh dominated possession with almost 58 percent of the expected goal share while outscoring rivals 15-9.
Now, the Penguins need their depth players to step up and bolster that top six.
If McGroarty secures a spot on the roster, he could inject the youthful energy this team
On the ice, the addition of Lars Eller enhances Pittsburgh’s defensive capabilities, even though he might be playing in a role larger than what he ideally merits. This underscores the significance of McGroarty being ready for the NHL right from the start. His presence allows Hayes to move to the 3C position and Eller to drop to 4C, which is a much better fit for him.
With Crosby, Malkin, Eller, and Lizotte, the Penguins are projected to have the 11th-best center depth in the league. The only position ranked higher is right defense, coming in at third, thanks to the contributions from Karlsson and Letang.
Only four defensemen are expected to exceed Karlsson’s offensive rating of plus-16: Evan Bouchard, Roman Josi, Cale Makar, and Quinn Hughes.
While Karlsson may not have been able to replicate his remarkable scoring achievements from the 2022-23 season, his puck movement remains exceptional. This aspect was the standout feature of a somewhat disappointing first year in Pittsburgh for him. However, he is not to blame entirely for this situation. A fresh perspective at the helm of the power play could facilitate his rebound.
Letang faces more uncertainties due to Karlsson’s arrival, which detracts from his prime playing time. Nevertheless, he has proven able to handle tough minutes at the top of the lineup. If he can improve his scoring and if his primary partner can bounce back, the Penguins will be in a favorable position.
Graves fell short of expectations during his first year in Pittsburgh, yet he also demonstrated some undervalued defensive abilities. In high-pressure situations, the Penguins allowed only 1.99 goals against per 60 minutes and faced 2.68 expected goals against per 60 while Graves was on the ice — both of which led the team. While he struggled with the puck, defensively, he contributed effectively. If Graves can return to his 2022-23 form in New Jersey, the top four defensemen could emerge as a considerable strength this season. At the very least, he adds value to the third pairing.
The Weaknesses
A significant weakness is the evident gap left by the trade of Guentzel. Crosby has previously demonstrated an ability to maximize limited resources, and Bunting has adapted reasonably well in Pittsburgh. Still, the team is missing a game-breaking winger.
Guentzel led the Penguins in shot volume and expected goal generation last season. His transition play, precise passing, and aggressive forechecking made him a multidimensional threat. Game-changing scorers like Guentzel are hard to find, and the Penguins have lost far more than just his presence. His absence places the team below the playoff threshold, and there isn’t a genuine replacement on the current roster. O’Connor appears to have the inside track for that role but will likely struggle in a top-line position. Neither Hayes nor Beauvillier measures up well, and McGroarty introduces uncertainty due to his lack of NHL experience.
Despite whatever offensive production the Penguins might generate without Guentzel, it does not compensate for their collective weaknesses defensively. The Penguins hold a minus-13 defensive rating, which ranks 25th in the league — hardly favorable for a team with playoff aspirations.
It begins with the star players; Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Bunting, Karlsson, and Letang collectively account for a minus-12 defensive rating. While some playoff teams feature core players who are less effective defens“`html
He has struggled to replicate the two-way success that marked his career year in 2018-19 while playing for New York. Now, he must demonstrate that he still has something to contribute on a team with aspirations for the playoffs.
However, he is not the only player needing to prove himself.
Cody Glass has yet to meet the expectations set by his sixth overall selection by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017. Over the years, he has showcased flashes of his talent in both Vegas and Nashville, but he has yet to show enough consistency to secure a position in the top nine. Meanwhile, defensemen Matt Grzelcyk and Sebastian Aho appear to offer little impact on either end of the ice, resembling a typical third pair.
This situation likely complicates matters for the goaltending, which is already quite unreliable.
Tristan Jarry’s performance has been on a decline for several seasons, raising concerns about his ability to be a starting goaltender given his play over the past five years. Last season, he placed 24th in goals saved above expected, which was an improvement over the previous year, yet his season was still plagued by inconsistency. While he has shown moments of being slightly above average during the regular season, Jarry has struggled to maintain his performance throughout a full season. His inconsistency and injury issues make him unpredictable, especially considering his limited experience in the playoffs thus far. The Penguins have significant goals tied to their aging core, and Jarry seems unlikely to provide the solid foundation they require for a deep playoff run.
Jarry’s injury history heightens the necessity for a dependable backup. Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he does not fit that role. Although he has had seasons where he played more than the average backup, the quality of his performance has not always justified the increased workload. It has been three seasons since his remarkable stint with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2020-21, which now seems more like an anomaly.
Unless there are changes this season, the Penguins may need to reevaluate their goaltending situation if they hope to capture another Stanley Cup during the Crosby era. A trade could be their only solution, with Jarry signed for four more years and Nedeljkovic list for another two.
The best case
Pittsburgh’s power play rebounds explosively, Jarry reestablishes himself as a starting caliber goaltender, and there is sufficient energy among the leaders for one last push beyond the first round.
The worst case
The issues that plagued last season persist, leading to another inconsistent year in which the Penguins fail to secure enough wins to reach the playoffs while also not losing enough to initiate the next era.
The bottom line
Crosby and his teammates have mostly managed to stay ahead of the aging curve. Betting against him comes with its risks. Still, expecting a return to the playoffs from an older squad with a flawed supporting cast in a conference filled with promising teams might not be realistic.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Tracking Across All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder
Access the additional previews for the 2024-25 season here.
(Image of Sidney Crosby: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Is This the End of an Era? Analyzing the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Playoff Hopes in the 2024-25 Season
Introduction to the 2024-25 Season
As the 2024-25 NHL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves at a pivotal crossroads. With a rich history of success, including five Stanley Cup championships, the franchise is now faced with questions about its future direction. As veteran players age and new talent emerges, fans are eager to understand the team’s playoff prospects and whether this season marks the end of an era.
Current Roster Overview
The Penguins’ roster for the 2024-25 season has undergone significant changes. The team is a blend of seasoned veterans and promising newcomers, making it crucial to analyze how these dynamics will affect their playoff aspirations. Below is a snapshot of the current roster:
| Player Name | Position | Age | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Crosby | C | 36 | 6’3″ | 200 lbs |
| Evgeni Malkin | C | 37 | 6’3″ | 190 lbs |
| Jake Guentzel | LW | 29 | 5’11” | 180 lbs |
| Marcus Pettersson | D | 27 | 6’3″ | 178 lbs |
| Tristan Jarry | G | 28 | 6’2″ | 194 lbs |
Key Factors Influencing Playoff Hopes
To effectively gauge the Penguins’ playoff hopes for the upcoming season, several critical factors must be considered:
1. Veteran Leadership
The presence of experienced players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is invaluable. Their leadership on and off the ice has been a cornerstone of the team’s success. However, fans must wonder how much longer they can maintain their elite performance levels.
2. Emerging Talent
The influx of younger players, such as Guentzel, is essential for the Penguins to remain competitive. The development of these players will be crucial as they seek to fill the gaps left by aging superstars.
3. Coaching Strategies
Head coach Mike Sullivan’s strategies will play a significant role in the Penguins’ performance. His ability to adapt to the evolving game and utilize his roster effectively could be a determining factor in their playoff success.
4. Team Chemistry
A cohesive team is vital for success in the NHL. The blend of veterans and youth must gel quickly to navigate the grueling season and the challenges of playoff hockey.
Analysis of the Competition
The Penguins are not alone in their quest for a playoff spot. The Eastern Conference is highly competitive, featuring several formidable teams:
- Boston Bruins: With a strong roster and playoff experience, the Bruins will be a tough competitor.
- Tampa Bay Lightning: Known for their offensive prowess, the Lightning will pose a significant challenge.
- New York Rangers: A young and dynamic team that has been making waves recently.
Potential Challenges Ahead
The path to the playoffs is fraught with challenges. Identifying these hurdles can help the Penguins strategize more effectively.
1. Injury Concerns
Injuries are an unfortunate reality in sports. The Penguins must navigate the season without significant injuries to key players, particularly their veterans, to maintain their playoff hopes.
2. Consistency Issues
Maintaining a consistent performance throughout the season is critical. The Penguins must avoid long losing streaks that can derail playoff aspirations.
3. Transitioning Roles
As veteran players transition to new roles, the team must ensure that younger players are ready to step up. This includes adapting to increased responsibilities and pressure in key moments.
Benefits of Playoff Success
Achieving playoff success is not just about the glory of winning but also brings several benefits:
- Increased revenue from ticket sales and merchandise.
- Enhanced team morale and fan engagement.
- Opportunities for younger players to gain invaluable playoff experience.
Practical Tips for Fans
For Penguins fans looking to support their team throughout this critical season, here are some practical tips:
- Attending Games: Be sure to attend home games to create a lively atmosphere.
- Engaging on Social Media: Follow the team on social platforms to stay updated and show your support.
- Wearing Team Colors: Show your pride by sporting Penguins gear during games.
Case Studies: Teams that Transitioned Successfully
Looking at other NHL teams that have successfully transitioned can provide insights for the Penguins:
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks underwent a significant transition after their championship run. By integrating young talent while retaining key veterans, they remained competitive for several seasons.
Los Angeles Kings
After winning two Stanley Cups, the Kings faced similar challenges as their core aged. By investing in the draft and developing young players, they maintained their competitive edge.
First-Hand Experiences: Fan Perspectives
Engaging with fans can provide context to the team’s situation. Many longtime Penguins supporters express mixed feelings about the future:
- Some embrace the influx of younger talent and the excitement they bring.
- Others are concerned about losing the core players that defined the franchise’s recent success.
Conclusion
As the Penguins embark on the 2024-25 season, they face a defining moment in franchise history. The blend of veteran leadership and emerging talent presents both challenges and opportunities. By addressing key factors and learning from other successful franchises, the Penguins can enhance their chances of making a deep playoff run. Whether this season marks the end of an era or the beginning of a new chapter remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the Penguins will strive for excellence on and off the ice.
