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What are we targeting this time? Great question!
We are looking for a defenseman who is 24 years and 105 days old, boasting approximately 132 NHL games played.
If you haven’t yet read the piece on breakout forwards, the introduction there provides further insights into how we identify potential breakout players in fantasy hockey. The approach for defensemen is fairly similar, albeit with a few adjustments based on relevant statistics. If you wish to delve into our methodology, continue reading, but if you prefer to see our top selections right away, click here.
Criteria for a Breakout Candidate
The trend of fantasy production by age for defensemen is less steep than that of forwards. In other words, defensemen generally take a bit longer to hit their fantasy peak and enjoy a more extended period once they arrive there.
Indeed, when analyzing the top 60 defensemen in fantasy points from the previous 15 NHL seasons, the average age stands at 28 years and 122 days, which is about six months older than forwards.
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Applying the same analysis as with forwards, we focus on all defensemen who made their debut from the 2009-10 season onwards, who are at least 25.7 years old (increased by one year compared to forwards) and possess a minimum of 100 NHL games played. This will help determine the average age and experience at which these players made their mark in the fantasy realm.
Similar to forwards, we utilize a 30-game rolling average of at least 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to indicate when a “breakout” has occurred.
This range in this case is broader than it was for forwards. Like forwards, some players made an immediate impact, such as Charlie McAvoy, Cale Makar, and Zach Werenski
After analyzing the stats, we have narrowed down to 20 defensemen.
Similar to the forwards, it’s essential to apply our 30-game rolling average analysis to determine if any of these players have consistently surpassed 1.7 FPPG. This approach will help us identify potential breakout candidates more accurately.
Among the 20 defensemen, Cam York, Bowen Byram, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson, Thomas Harley, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Justin Barron have successfully maintained a 30-game stretch at or above 1.7 FPPG.
The Breakouts
This leaves us with 13 defensemen to evaluate for their breakout potential. Each of these players meets the following criteria:
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Each defender is under 25 years and 105 days old.
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All have a career FPPG below 1.7.
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They possess at least 92 games of NHL experience but fewer than 172.
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None have recorded a sustained stretch of 30 games averaging 1.7 FPPG or better.
The players are listed below in order of FPPG from the previous season, along with their ages as of September 1, 2024, and their NHL game experience.
Editor’s Picks
1 Related
Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (1.39 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 97 games played): Currently, he is playing top-pairing minutes alongside Seth Jones, but due to the Hawks’ overall performance, he has yet to capitalize on significant fantasy opportunities. With the team’s recent acquisitions and the growth of Connor Bedard, Vlasic may gain additional stats this season.
Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (1.3 FPPG, 22.4 years old, 147 games played): The Flyers have multiple defenders in this potential breakout category, though Cam York has already distinguished himself. Drysdale might find himself somewhat overshadowed by York’s offensive contributions, but with the arrival of Matvei Michkov, there could be enough scoring opportunities for the second pairing.
Kevin Bahl, D, Calgary Flames (1.04 FPPG, 24.2 years old, 148 games played): As a return in the Jacob Markstrom trade, Bahl potentially secures a top-four defense spot with the Flames, which should provide him with ample minutes to make a fantasy impact. If he continues to earn those minutes, he could serve as a valuable asset on deeper fantasy rosters.
Philip Broberg, D, St. Louis Blues (0.71 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 101 games played): Acquired by the“`html
Zellweger, D, Anaheim Ducks (1.38 FPPG, 21.0 years old, 26 games played): While Pavel Mintyukov had a more extensive showcase last season, Zellweger managed to outshine him by the end. Depending on his performance during training camp and preseason, he might start the season as the power play quarterback for the team.
Simon Edvinsson, D, Detroit Red Wings (1.21 FPPG, 21.6 years old, 25 games played): Despite limited ice time and a minimal role, Edvinsson recorded 26 hits and blocked 25 shots over 16 games last season. He represents a strong option among physical defenders. Expect him to begin on the second pairing, allowing him to accumulate fantasy points through increased ice time.
The likely not breakouts
Regrettably, nine out of our 13 final defenders appear to have too steep a hill to climb to achieve fantasy success in the upcoming season.
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Arber Xhekaj, D, Montreal Canadiens (1.27 FPPG, 23.6 years old, 95 games played): He satisfies all the necessary criteria, but with established stars and other emerging talents (Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, Logan Mailloux) in the mix, there may not be sufficient ice time for Xhekaj to achieve a fantasy breakout.
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Egor Zamula, D, Philadelphia Flyers (1.22 FPPG, 24.4 years old, 92 games played): Like Xhekaj, Zamula also finds himself in a crowded position on the depth chart, which may hinder his access to the ice time needed to provide fantasy value.
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Jordan Harris, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (1.19 FPPG, 24.2 years old, 131 games played): Noticing a pattern? Although Harris is new, he is up against several established and promising defenders. It would be a win if he consistently secures third-pairing minutes.
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Calen Addison, D, (free agent) (1.08 FPPG, 24.4 years old, 155 games played): As of September 1, no team has shown interest in Addison. This is understandable, given that the league has less room for power-play specialist defenders these days. If he eventually signs with a team willing to take on a defensive liability in exchange for showcasing his offensive skills, there may be a chance. However, this likely won’t happen in leagues that still use plus/minus as a statistic.
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games participated) -
Ty Smith, D, Carolina Hurricanes (AHL last season, 24.4 years old, 123 games participated)
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Identifying the Next Big Fantasy Breakout: Top Young Defensemen to Watch for the 2024 Season
Overview of Young Defensemen in Fantasy Hockey
As the 2024 fantasy hockey season approaches, identifying breakout players is essential for building a competitive roster. Young defensemen can often provide surprising value, with their offensive upside and contributions in other categories. This article highlights the top young defensemen to keep an eye on this season, focusing on their potential, statistical trends, and impact on your fantasy team.
Criteria for Identifying Breakout Defensemen
To determine which young defensemen are prime candidates for a breakout season, we consider several factors:
- Age: Players aged 24 and under are typically still developing their skills.
- Ice Time: Increased minutes on ice often correlate with better fantasy production.
- Power Play Opportunities: Defensemen who see time on the power play are more likely to contribute points.
- Statistical Trends: Examine past performance and growth in key metrics.
- Team Context: A team’s overall offensive ability can significantly impact a defenseman’s success.
Top Young Defensemen to Watch
1. Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres)
Owen Power, the first overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, has shown promising potential in his young career. In the 2023 season, he averaged over 20 minutes of ice time and played a crucial role on the Sabres’ power play.
- Age: 21
- 2023 Stats: 12 goals, 35 assists, 47 points
- Key Strengths: Strong skating ability, offensive instincts, and physicality
2. Moritz Seider (Detroit Red Wings)
Moritz Seider made an immediate impact after winning the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s Rookie of the Year. His ability to log heavy minutes and contribute offensively makes him a fantasy asset.
- Age: 23
- 2023 Stats: 10 goals, 40 assists, 50 points
- Key Strengths: Vision, playmaking, and defensive reliability
3. Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche)
Cale Makar is already a superstar in the NHL, but he continues to be a top choice in fantasy leagues due to his elite skill set and offensive production. He is a key figure for the Avalanche and a must-watch player.
- Age: 25
- 2023 Stats: 28 goals, 50 assists, 78 points
- Key Strengths: Scoring ability, quick skating, and shot accuracy
4. Jamie Drysdale (Anaheim Ducks)
After recovering from an injury, Jamie Drysdale is poised for a breakout season. His talent and potential are undeniable, making him a player to target in your drafts.
- Age: 21
- 2023 Stats: 5 goals, 20 assists in limited games
- Key Strengths: Offensive upside, transition game, and puck handling
5. Kaiden Guhle (Montreal Canadiens)
Kaiden Guhle has already made a name for himself and is expected to take on a more significant role with the Canadiens this season. His physical play combined with offensive potential makes him an intriguing prospect.
- Age: 22
- 2023 Stats: 7 goals, 22 assists, 29 points
- Key Strengths: Strong defensive play, shot blocking, and offensive awareness
Statistical Overview of Young Defensemen
Tracking the performance of these players can provide insights into their potential for the upcoming season. Here’s a summary table of their 2023 statistics:
| Player | Age | Goals | Assists | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power | 21 | 12 | 35 | 47 |
| Moritz Seider | 23 | 10 | 40 | 50 |
| Cale Makar | 25 | 28 | 50 | 78 |
| Jamie Drysdale | 21 | 5 | 20 | 25 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 22 | 7 | 22 | 29 |
Benefits of Drafting Young Defensemen
Investing in young defensemen offers unique advantages:
- Value Growth: As they mature, their production often increases significantly.
- Long-term Investment: Young players can be part of your roster for years, providing sustained value.
- Potential for Breakouts: Many young players make significant leaps in performance, especially if they are given more responsibility.
Practical Tips for Drafting Young Defensemen
Here are some practical tips to consider when drafting young defensemen:
- Monitor Preseason Performances: Watch for trends in their play during exhibition games.
- Follow Team Changes: Coaching changes or trades can impact player performance.
- Consider League Settings: Adjust your strategy based on whether your league values certain stats, like hits or blocked shots.
Case Studies of Recent Breakouts
Examining past breakouts can illuminate potential trends:
- Adam Fox: After a solid rookie season, Fox became a top-tier fantasy defenseman in a short span.
- Quinn Hughes: Hughes showcased his offensive capabilities early on, turning heads in fantasy drafts.
First-Hand Experience with Fantasy Breakouts
Many fantasy players share experiences of drafting young defensemen who exceeded expectations:
- Success Story: “I took a chance on Cale Makar in his rookie year, and he paid off tremendously with his scoring and assists.”
- Tip from a Veteran: “Always keep an eye on players who are getting power-play time; they can provide added scoring.”
Conclusion
As you prepare for the 2024 fantasy hockey season, focusing on young defensemen can give you the edge you need. By analyzing their potential, keeping an eye on statistical trends, and following the right strategies, you can identify the next big breakout player for your fantasy team.
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