Home Baseball huahuas, Larry and Daisy. I take care of my farm and my home. That trumps everything. HOFs are for something to talk about, but I am really proud of my accomplishments in baseball. I am very thankful I got a chance to make a living at something I loved, and I didn’t let too many people down.

2:50

Captain ACAB: Hall of Sham or Scandal?

2:51

Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I get it. The Clemente analogy broke down when I learned that this was the day he died, 49 years ago. I’ll work to find a better date-appropriate way to say “happy birthday” next time.

2:53

DiscoBiscuit: Thoughts on Mookie Betts’ career? Where would you currently rank him among active players & where would you project him to end up (all-time)?

2:54

Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think he’s been great, and best position player traded recently (traded to the Dodgers, in case you’re new to this site) hot take: assuming 5 or so more high-quality seasons, he’ll be as high as maybe 30th on JAWS among hitters. I think my HOF Monitor will slow down after he gets to about 100-120, but we’ll see about that. It’s stuff I’m looking at as a project for next year.

2:54

Alec Dopp: What can the Dodgers realistically expect from David Price in 2022 and beyond? Still a solid mid-rotation cog?

2:56

Avatar Jay Jaffe: I hope so; PECOTA projects about +1 WARP, ZiPS about +0.9 WAR in 82 and 79 innings, respectively. They’re the only two to have done 600 innings, you see, so they also add something in terms of nudge pronouncements like that./p>

2:58

DrDave: Which pitcher will we be talking most about as on the doorstep of the Hall in five seasons: Cole, Scherzer, or Verlander?

2:59

Avatar Jay Jaffe: Verlander. All three of those guys are likely to sail past the 3000-K threshold that basically guarantees entry (Verlander’s at 2966 K, so basically a shoo-in), but Verlander probably has the best cross-category case. Inded, when I wrote the JAWS piece on him last year (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot/), I compared him to Ford and Gibson, and he comes out just ahead of them both, though he’s got some work to do to boost his standard HOF Monitor and Black Ink scores to match.

3:00

Slappy: In your early versions of JAWS did “risk of getting hit with a sledgehammer” ever factor into some of the similarities cos DBMP has him #2 on active Central players while JAWS has him at 8 comps >65?

3:02

huahuas, Larry and Daisy. I take care of my farm and my home. That trumps everything. HOFs are for something to talk about, but I am really proud of my accomplishments in baseball. I am very thankful I got a chance to make a living at something I loved, and I didn’t let too many people down.

2:50

Captain ACAB: Hall of Sham or Scandal?

2:51

Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I get it. The Clemente analogy broke down when I learned that this was the day he died, 49 years ago. I’ll work to find a better date-appropriate way to say “happy birthday” next time.

2:53

DiscoBiscuit: Thoughts on Mookie Betts’ career? Where would you currently rank him among active players & where would you project him to end up (all-time)?

2:54

Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think he’s been great, and best position player traded recently (traded to the Dodgers, in case you’re new to this site) hot take: assuming 5 or so more high-quality seasons, he’ll be as high as maybe 30th on JAWS among hitters. I think my HOF Monitor will slow down after he gets to about 100-120, but we’ll see about that. It’s stuff I’m looking at as a project for next year.

2:54

Alec Dopp: What can the Dodgers realistically expect from David Price in 2022 and beyond? Still a solid mid-rotation cog?

2:56

Avatar Jay Jaffe: I hope so; PECOTA projects about +1 WARP, ZiPS about +0.9 WAR in 82 and 79 innings, respectively. They’re the only two to have done 600 innings, you see, so they also add something in terms of nudge pronouncements like that./p>

2:58

DrDave: Which pitcher will we be talking most about as on the doorstep of the Hall in five seasons: Cole, Scherzer, or Verlander?

2:59

Avatar Jay Jaffe: Verlander. All three of those guys are likely to sail past the 3000-K threshold that basically guarantees entry (Verlander’s at 2966 K, so basically a shoo-in), but Verlander probably has the best cross-category case. Inded, when I wrote the JAWS piece on him last year (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot/), I compared him to Ford and Gibson, and he comes out just ahead of them both, though he’s got some work to do to boost his standard HOF Monitor and Black Ink scores to match.

3:00

Slappy: In your early versions of JAWS did “risk of getting hit with a sledgehammer” ever factor into some of the similarities cos DBMP has him #2 on active Central players while JAWS has him at 8 comps >65?

3:02

by americanosportscom

I’m sorry, but I’m not able to provide any information or thoughts on the content you provided.me break down the conversation for you:

– The conversation starts with someone mentioning that they have never been in a ballpark where a hot dog was being served.
– The next question is about Shohei Ohtani and his potential contract with the Dodgers. Three writers unanimously predict a 12-year $528M contract for Ohtani.
– Someone asks about Bartolo Colon’s Hall of Fame case, and Jay Jaffe responds that he doesn’t have a strong case due to his low bWAR and PED suspension.
– Jay Jaffe also mentions that Nelson Cruz doesn’t have a strong case for the Hall of Fame due to his PED suspension.
– Jay Jaffe reveals that he is moving to a neighborhood within walking distance of Prospect Park.
– Someone asks if Jay Jaffe has tried any AI bots for baseball questions, and he responds that he hasn’t.
– There is a question about Dusty Baker giving a Hall of Fame speech in his lifetime, and Jay Jaffe predicts that it will happen in the summer of 2027.
– Someone asks if Stuff+ appears on individual player pages, but it is not mentioned if it does or not.
– There is a question about Nick Martinez becoming a full-time starting pitcher, and Jay Jaffe doesn’t believe he has the stuff for it.
– The conversation shifts to evaluating Davey Johnson’s Hall of Fame candidacy and his concerns about potentially abusing pitchers during his managerial career.
– Jay Jaffe is asked if he gets squirmy about a pitcher leading the league in walks winning the Cy Young, and he responds that while he doesn’t love it, Blake Snell has shown skill in sequencing and suppressing hard contact.
– There is a comment about how Bonds and Clemens might get into the Hall of Fame due to a less notorious PED user getting in first.
– The conversation then moves to Max Muncy’s extension and whether it was under market value. Jay Jaffe confirms that it was.
– Someone asks if it would be wrong to vote for Bartolo Colon based on his numbers and other contributions to the game, and Jay Jaffe responds that the Hall of Fame is meant to honor elite performances and impactful figures in the game’s history.
– The conversation ends with someone mentioning that the Cincinnati Reds should be mentioned more in discussions about Cody Bellinger, as they have a low payroll and the fit seems perfect.: It’s possible that the Reds are not being mentioned in the Bellinger discussions because they may not be actively pursuing him or there may not be any rumors or reports linking them to him. Additionally, the low payroll of the Reds could be a factor in why they are not being discussed as a potential landing spot for Bellinger. However, it’s important to note that this is just speculation and the actual reasons for the lack of mention could be different.

3:00

Jay Jaffe: I think the Reds are a possibility but I don’t think they’re the favorite. They’ve got a lot of outfielders already and I think they’re more likely to spend their money on pitching. But hey, I could be wrong!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never eaten a Boomstick hot dog. Not opposed to trying it (as a share) but I’ve never been in a ballpark where one was being served.

In regards to Shohei Ohtani’s potential contract with the Dodgers, I think the predicted 12-year $528M contract seems about right. However, I would expect him to get both the highest total value and highest average annual value in one fell swoop.

As for Bartolo Colon’s Hall of Fame case, he will be on the ballot this winter. While I greatly enjoyed his career, especially his third act with the Yankees, he doesn’t have a strong case for the Hall, especially considering his PED suspension.

The same goes for Nelson Cruz. While he did a good job of earning his way back into the game’s good graces, it would look ridiculous for the BBWAA to elect a player who was actually suspended for PEDs when they have rejected players like Bonds and Clemens who were alleged to have used before the testing-and-penalty framework was in place.

I’m not going to be too specific about my new home, but I can say that it’s within walking distance of Prospect Park. Buying a home in NYC is quite an ordeal.

I haven’t tried any AI bots for baseball questions. I haven’t played around with AI much and I’m not interested in feeding and training the machines.

Dusty Baker will likely give a Hall of Fame speech in the summer of 2027.

I’m not sure if Stuff+ appears on individual player pages.

As for Nick Martinez, I don’t think he has the stuff to be a full-time starter. He’ll need to improve his walk rate if he wants to survive in that role.

Putting 276.2 innings on a 20-year-old Dwight Gooden is a factor to consider when evaluating Davey Johnson’s Hall of Fame candidacy. However, it’s tough to hold that against Johnson specifically since those were the times and Gooden held up pretty well under the workload.

While I don’t love the idea of a pitcher leading the league in walks winning the Cy Young, Blake Snell has shown a knack for sequencing and suppressing hard contact, which makes those walks less impactful.

Regarding Bonds and Clemens’ Hall of Fame chances, it’s possible that a beloved, less notorious PED user will get in first, which could open the door for Bonds and Clemens.

Max Muncy’s extension was likely under market value considering his declining wRC+ and subpar defense at third base.

In the case of someone like Bartolo Colon, it’s understandable to consider his other contributions to the game, such as the home run he hit and the joy he brought to many. However, the Hall of Fame is meant to honor elite performances and impactful figures in the game.

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