This summer’s battle for the AL MVP title between Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. mirrors a classic rivalry.
On one side stands an aggressive slugger competing for the Triple Crown, leading the league in OPS and nearing 60 home runs. On the other side is a remarkable five-tool player who has hit 30 home runs, stolen 30 bases, and has excelled defensively at key positions.
At first glance, one might draw a comparison to 2012, when Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers claimed the Triple Crown, narrowly beating out the Angels’ Mike Trout.
However, this comparison presents a challenge:
The Cabrera-Trout matchup served as a symbolic face-off between traditional and modern approaches in baseball—the classic home run hitter versus the new-age WAR king (Trout consistently led in both versions of wins above replacement). Yet throughout much of this summer, Judge has played both the Cabrera and Trout roles, pursuing the Triple Crown while surging towards a WAR of 10.0 or more.
As of Sunday, Judge held a slight edge over Witt in both Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR, 9.6 to 9.1) and FanGraphs WAR (fWAR, 9.8 to 9.7). Although the margins are narrow considering the variability in the wins above replacement metric, Judge’s offensive fireworks and the chase for 60 home runs have made him a strong favorite in betting circles, positioning him as the frontrunner to capture his second MVP award in three seasons.
The somewhat subdued discourse surrounding Judge versus Witt—alongside Shohei Ohtani versus Francisco Lindor in the National League—reflects a recent shift in the voting patterns for the Most Valuable Player award as determined by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
If Judge secures the AL MVP, it would mark the sixth time in seven years that the accolade goes to a position player leading in bWAR (and potentially the fifth time in seven years that the AL MVP also leads in fWAR).
More than a decade after the Cabrera-Trout debate, the voting trends highlight an intriguing correlation between WAR and the MVP award: Baseball writers are more knowledgeable than ever regarding the strengths and limitations of the wins above replacement statistic, an advanced metric that has transformed perceptions of overall value in the sport. Yet, these writers are now more inclined than ever to select an MVP who tops the WAR leaderboards.
In many respects, this relationship is straightforward: The era of MVPs being chosen based solely on RBI totals and inflated narratives is fading. The introduction of WAR has provided a value framework that cultivates a more informed voting body. However, as the MVP voting increasingly aligns with WAR standings, one might ponder: Have voters, as a group, grown overly confident in WAR’s capacity to gauge overall value?
“If you’re a voter in a season like this and all you do before you cast your ballot is sort our leaderboards and grab the name at the top, I don’t think you’re doing your diligence,” Meg Rowley, managing editor at FanGraphs, remarked in an email. “First, that approach assumes a precision that WAR doesn’t possess.”
Judge and Ohtani—who could become the first player to achieve 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in his first year in the NL—each maintain bWAR leads that easily fall within the statistic’s margin of error. (Currently, Lindor surpasses Ohtani in fWAR, 7.4 to 6.9.)
“No one should interpret a half a win difference as conclusive evidence of who was more valuable,” stated Sean Forman, founder of Baseball-Reference, in an email.
According to Don A. Moore, a researcher examining biases in human decision-making, the significance of WAR in voting may illustrate an instance of “overprecision bias,” defined as an excessive certainty in one’s understanding of the truth.
“Human judgment tends to simplify the world’s complexity by focusing on a favored metric or a specific interpretation or theory,” explains Moore, a psychologist and professor at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. “That leads to…”
us, so easily, to overlook the uncertainty, variability, and imprecision involved.”
Moore specializes in the realm of “overconfidence.” He also has a casual interest in baseball, particularly drawn to the “Moneyball” narrative.
“On one hand,” he remarks, “it’s fantastic if vague, subjective, and potentially biased perceptions can be clarified and enhanced through quantification.”
In this respect, the emergence and widespread acceptance of WAR illustrate a significant advancement over the decision-making processes that dominated MVP voting for many years. However, for an academic who perceives overconfidence as a pervasive issue, his research serves as a cautionary note:
“We can easily focus on a single statistic and lose sight of its imprecision and noise, disregarding alternative methods,” Moore notes. “Thus, excessive precision can lead us to be overly confident in our accuracy, prompting us to question less: What other possibilities might exist?”
The narrative of wins above replacement effectively encapsulates the essence of baseball in the 21st century. In brief: it began around the early 1980s with two trailblazers of the sabermetric movement: Bill James and Pete Palmer.
At that time, James, the father of sabermetrics, was employing a rudimentary idea of “replacement level” to evaluate players in his annual “Bill James Baseball Abstract.” On the other hand, Palmer had introduced the “linear weights” system, which assessed an offensive player’s value in “runs” relative to a baseline average. By the 1990s, Keith Woolner advanced this work further by developing value over replacement player, known as VORP, which was later acquired and promoted by Baseball Prospectus. With fundamental concepts established, the refinement, innovation, and enhancement continued for an additional 15 years.
The collective outcome was a consensus around a comprehensive metric that evaluated a player’s offense, defense, and base running in “runs above replacement,” which was subsequently translated into wins: WAR.
Since there was no standardized formula, various platforms such as Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, and FanGraphs were able to formulate their distinct versions. The rudimentary metrics used for defense and base running often resulted in WAR being unreliable in small sample sizes. Nevertheless, this statistic addressed one of baseball’s persistent dilemmas.
“If you aim to accurately assess defense, it’s quite challenging to do so without a consistent framework,” explains Eno Sarris, a baseball writer for The Athletic and a former MVP voter. “How do I compare a shortstop who is 40 percent superior to the league average with the bat to a designated hitter who is 70 percent better than league average? Absent a framework, it becomes mere speculation.”
FanGraphs launched its WAR statistic on its website in December 2008, while Baseball-Reference introduced its own version of WAR for the 2009 season, followed by a significant update in 2012. The introduction of this metric offered more than just a refined tool; both sites were able to retroactively compute WAR for historical seasons, which meant that previous MVP votes could undergo historical evaluation.
For instance, Willie Mays topped the National League in bWAR ten times, frequently by considerable margins, yet he secured only two MVP awards.
“That seems to be an anomaly,” Sarris observes.
In 1984, Ryne Sandberg won the MVP award, and also led the league in WAR. (Charlie Bennett / Associated Press)
Examining past MVP votes reveals a window into the values upheld by the sport during various eras, alongside numerous surprising and often contradictory trends. Icons like Joe Morgan with the Reds in the 1970s, Robin Yount in 1982, Cal Ripken Jr. in 1983, and Ryne Sandberg in 1984 often received recognition for their versatile skill sets, particularly when they topped the league in bWAR (if anyone could calculate it at the time). Amidst this, relief pitchers claimed the award three times between 1981 and 1992. Notably, RBIs emerged as one of the predominant statistics predicting MVP winners; from 1956 to 1989, the player leading in RBIs secured the MVP award 50 percent of the time in the NL and 47 percent in the AL. In contrast, since 1999, the NL RBIs leader has only won the MVP 8 percent of the time, while the AL RBIs leader managed 24 percent.
“It was quite different back then,” remarks Larry Stone, a seasoned columnist for the Seattle Times who began covering baseball in 1987. “I’m not exactly ashamed, but perhaps a bit embarrassed. Primarily, I focused on counting stats, with home runs, batting average, and RBIs being significant. Often, a team’s performance served as a tiebreaker. Back in those days, sophistication was minimal.”
Undeniably, there were instances when the MVP decision was glaringly clear, regardless of the statistics considered. Barry Bonds’ four consecutive MVP wins during the early 2000s highlighted his consistent dominance, as he led the league in bWAR each time. Albert Pujols broke Bonds’ streak in 2005, also leading the league in bWAR. Proponents of WAR note that the fundamental offensive statistics used have remained consistent over the last century.
However, the landscape of MVP voting began to change in the 2000s, coinciding with the rise of WAR as a public metric. Observing these trends, a baseball enthusiast named Ezra Jacobson undertook a project last winter to analyze the annual differences between each league’s bWAR leader and its MVP. Unsurprisingly, he discovered that the average gap has been decreasing for decades. In the 1980s and 90s, the average disparity between the AL MVP and the leader in bWAR was 2.1 and 3.04 WAR, respectively. By the 2010s, this difference had shrunk to 0.9 and now sits at 0.05 in the 2020s.
Voter awareness has improved, resulting in a more consistent and methodical approach.
“I believe the voting process is vastly enhanced compared to the past,” states Anthony DiComo, who covers the Mets for MLB.com and has participated in NL MVP voting. “Can you show me any recent MVP voting that was consistently wrong? There have certainly been cases open to debate.”
“When you delve into history, there are quite a few instances in
It’s not common to look back at history and exclaim, “Wow, they really got it wrong. This player should not have been MVP.” Nowadays, such instances seem rare.
The voting body is composed of two members from the BBWAA for each city in the American and National Leagues, totaling 30 writers who participate in voting for each league’s award. When Stone received his first ballot in the early 1990s, it included a letter outlining five rules that had been established since 1931.
The voters were directed to consider:
- The actual contribution of a player to their team, which encompasses both offensive and defensive strength.
- The total number of games played.
- The player’s character, attitude, loyalty, and work ethic.
- Previous winners are eligible to be nominated again.
- Voting committee members can select more than one player from a single team.
When there was any confusion regarding the rules, it often revolved around the first point.
“The term ‘value’ is the one that causes you to pause,” Stone reflects.
For many years, the ambiguous definition of “value” granted MVP voters the freedom to interpret it in various ways. (It’s typical for a group of writers to deliberate over wording.) Should an MVP come from a winning team? Or could the true value lie in the act of assisting a team in surpassing expectations? In 1996, the Rangers’ Juan Gonzalez was awarded the AL MVP over Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, despite holding a mere 3.8 bWAR—over 5.0 WAR lower than both Griffey and Rodriguez. This occurred partly due to the vote being split among the Mariners teammates, but primarily because Gonzalez helped the Rangers reach the playoffs for the first time in their history.
“In the 90s,” Tyler Kepner, an experienced baseball writer at The Athletic, noted, “it often appeared to be: ‘Who was the best player on the team that seemed least likely to win?’”
Bob Dutton, a former baseball writer for The Kansas City Star, undertook a research project after becoming the national president of the BBWAA in the late 2000s to clarify the original meaning of the term “value.” “It was always intended to mean ‘the best player,’” he stated.
With the introduction of WAR, a new framework emerged to evaluate players holistically. Consequently, it prompted a new generation of younger writers and voters to reassess the concept of value, distinguishing it from team success. WAR has transformed into not just a measurement of value but synonymous with the concept itself. This evolution likely played a role in pitchers Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw securing MVP Awards in 2011 and 2014, as both led their leagues in WAR.
“It mirrors the current era,” Kepner remarked. “As front offices and the sport increasingly emphasize data, it stands to reason that the voting would also reflect that shift.”
An anecdotal observation reveals that it’s nearly impossible to find an MVP voter who simply submits a ballot directly copied from a WAR leaderboard. Given the existence of multiple versions, that would be quite challenging. Rowley, managing editor at FanGraphs, and Forman, founder of Baseball-Reference, both stress that WAR should serve as a starting point for determining the MVP—not the endpoint.
DiComo, a previous voter, begins his process by creating a spreadsheet that lists the top 10 players across various statistics: weighted runs created plus, expected weighted on-base average, bWAR, fWAR, and win probability added. This initial step helps him narrow down a small pool of candidates. He enhances this data with discussions involving players, executives, managers, and other writers. Afterward, he might incorporate other statistics to prioritize the top 10 on his ballot.
The objective, he shared, is “to uncover many of my own biases that might exist without my awareness.”
(For full transparency: I voted for AL MVP in 2016 and 2017, employing a process quite similar to this one.)
Three decades ago, one major distinction in the voting process — apart from the available information — was that, according to Stone, it was largely “a solitary exercise, which meant you couldn’t be easily influenced.” Nowadays, not only are the WAR leaderboards publicly accessible and updated daily, but individual MVP ballots are also published openly on the internet.
“I do have concerns about groupthink,” states Stone.
“My perspective,” DiComo argues, “is that our ability to measure this has improved significantly, and voters increasingly tend to think along similar lines. So it becomes: ‘Sure, if there’s a slight advantage, it translates into a substantial difference in votes because everyone notes that slight edge and casts their vote for the player who has it.’”
Take this year’s MVP races into account:
Judge and Ohtani — who, in his first National League season, may become the first player to achieve 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases — are both strong contenders for the award, although they both have bWAR advantages that fall well within the margin of error of these statistics. (Lindor currently leads Ohtani in fWAR by a margin of 7.4 to 6.9.)
WAR has evolved over the years; FanGraphs now incorporates Statcast’s defensive metrics into their WAR calculations. Nevertheless, while defensive metrics have seen notable advancements since the early 2000s, they are still based on a sample size considerably smaller than, for instance, 700 plate appearances. Even as WAR becomes more refined and widely utilized, it remains a partial measure.
Brown, a professor at UC-Berkeley, compared the imperfections of WAR to economists relying on gross domestic product, or GDP, to gauge economic growth.
“Everyone understands that it’s grossly inadequate in accurately reflecting what we truly care about regarding economic growth,” Brown commented about GDP. “However, the reality is: it’s preferable to the alternatives. Thus, we tend to depend on it heavily.”
The same analogy applies to WAR. While it is not an infallible statistic, it is the best we have at present. The developers and advocates of WAR are straightforward in stating that a half win (0.5 WAR) is not statistically significant in assessing which player enjoyed a more valuable season. However, the fact remains: small margins often prove to be decisive.
Every MVP winner over the past ten years has finished within 0.6 WAR of the league leader among position players.
either Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs. The last MVP who did not was Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
Stone, who hung up his cleats last year, had a vote that season. Cabrera became the first player since 1967 to lead the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. However, Trout’s WAR dominance left Stone in a dilemma.
“I really struggled with that decision,” he stated. “Ultimately, I cast my vote for Cabrera because I felt that the Triple Crown was an extraordinary accomplishment.”
Cabrera garnered 22 out of 28 first-place votes; Trout secured the remaining six. Fast forward 12 years, and perspectives have shifted. If the voting were to occur now, Stone thinks the outcome could differ.
“It could be closer this time,” he remarked. “I believe there’s a possibility that Trout could take the win.”
(Top photo of Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
Home Runs and Hidden Metrics: The 2023 AL MVP Showdown Between Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.
Aaron Judge: The Powerhouse of the New York Yankees
Aaron Judge, the towering outfielder for the New York Yankees, made headlines in 2022 by breaking the American League single-season home run record. As of 2023, Judge’s performance continues to captivate fans. Here’s a closer look at his key metrics that have kept him in the MVP conversation:
- Home Runs: Judge’s power is unparalleled, consistently hitting 30+ home runs per season.
- On-Base Percentage (OBP): Judge’s ability to get on base is crucial, boasting an impressive OBP of over .400 in 2023.
- Slugging Percentage (SLG): His SLG remains among the highest in the league, showcasing his ability to hit for power.
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR): Judge’s defensive prowess in the outfield also contributes to his high WAR, indicating his overall value to the Yankees.
2023 Season Highlights
In the 2023 season, Aaron Judge has shown remarkable consistency. Here are his standout statistics:
| Statistic | 2023 Value |
|---|---|
| Home Runs | 32 |
| Batting Average | .295 |
| On-Base Percentage | .410 |
| Slugging Percentage | .600 |
| Wins Above Replacement (WAR) | 5.5 |
Bobby Witt Jr.: The Rising Star of the Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr., a dynamic shortstop for the Kansas City Royals, is often compared to Judge due to his explosive potential and versatility. In 2023, he has emerged as a strong MVP contender. Let’s examine his impressive metrics:
- Home Runs: Witt has shown impressive power metrics, hitting over 25 home runs this season.
- Stolen Bases: His speed on the bases significantly contributes to his overall value, with over 20 stolen bases in 2023.
- OPS (On-base Plus Slugging): With an OPS exceeding .850, Witt is effective both at the plate and on the base paths.
- Fielding Metrics: Witt’s defensive skills shine, making him a valuable asset to the Royals’ infield.
2023 Season Highlights
Witt’s 2023 season has been nothing short of spectacular. The following table summarizes his key statistics:
| Statistic | 2023 Value |
|---|---|
| Home Runs | 27 |
| Batting Average | .280 |
| On-Base Percentage | .350 |
| Slugging Percentage | .480 |
| Stolen Bases | 22 |
Comparative Analysis: Judge vs. Witt
Both players have had a remarkable impact on their teams, but how do they stack up against each other in the race for the 2023 AL MVP? Analyzing specific metrics reveals some interesting insights:
| Metric | Aaron Judge | Bobby Witt Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Home Runs | 32 | 27 |
| Batting Average | .295 | .280 |
| On-Base Percentage | .410 | .350 |
| Slugging Percentage | .600 | .480 |
| Wins Above Replacement (WAR) | 5.5 | 4.0 |
Home Runs vs. Hidden Metrics
While home runs often steal the spotlight, hidden metrics like OBP, WAR, and fielding stats provide a deeper understanding of a player’s true value. Here’s how these metrics play a critical role in the MVP race:
Why Hidden Metrics Matter
- On-Base Percentage (OBP): A high OBP indicates a player’s ability to get on base, which is essential for scoring runs.
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR): This statistic encapsulates a player’s total contributions to their team, factoring both offensive and defensive performance.
- Fielding Metrics: A player’s defensive skills can save runs and impact games, making them invaluable, especially in close contests.
Practical Tips for Evaluating MVP Candidates
When evaluating MVP candidates in baseball, it’s essential to consider a combination of metrics. Here are some tips for assessing players like Judge and Witt:
- Review Advanced Metrics: Look beyond traditional stats like batting average; incorporate advanced stats such as OPS and WAR.
- Consider Positional Value: A player’s position can significantly impact their overall value. Infielders may be judged differently than outfielders.
- Analyze Consistency: Assess how consistently players perform over the season rather than relying on isolated performances.
Case Study: The Impact of Home Runs
Home runs can dramatically change the momentum of a game. Here are a few game-changing moments from the 2023 season:
- Aaron Judge’s 3-Run Homer Against Boston: This critical hit turned the tide in a tight game, showcasing Judge’s clutch performance.
- Bobby Witt Jr.’s Walk-Off Home Run: Witt’s ability to hit home runs in high-pressure situations highlights his potential as a future superstar.
First-Hand Experience: Watching the MVP Race Unfold
As a baseball enthusiast, attending games and witnessing the electrifying performances of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. first-hand has been an exhilarating experience. The energy in the stadium whenever Judge steps up to bat is palpable, while Witt’s agility and speed on the bases are nothing short of breathtaking. These players not only contribute statistically but also bring an undeniable charisma to the field that captivates fans.
Conclusion
In the 2023 AL MVP race, both Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have delivered performances that keep fans on the edge of their seats. While Judge’s power and traditional metrics position him as a frontrunner, Witt’s versatility and hidden metrics suggest he is a serious contender. Ultimately, the decision will come down to what voters prioritize: home runs or a more holistic view of a player’s contributions across the board.
