Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers has been on fire recently, boasting a batting average of .628 over the last 10 games with 27 hits in 43 at-bats, six home runs, six doubles, and 20 RBIs. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
As one of the most unpredictable playoffs in recent Major League Baseball history unfolds, the Dodgers personify the current climate of parity.
Should they harmonize a star-studded offense with an effective pitching strategy, the team stands a good chance at clinching their second World Series title in five years.
Conversely, if their makeshift rotation struggles or their top players fail to perform, an early exit could mirror their experiences in the last two postseasons.
Entering October with confidence, the Dodgers hold the top playoff seed and have achieved the second-best record in the majors since the All-Star break. However, they face numerous challenges on their road to a championship, many stemming from deficiencies inherent in their roster.
Read more: Shohei Ohtani fell short of the triple crown but managed to extend his hitting streak during the Dodgers’ finale.
As the team anticipates its upcoming opponent in the National League Division Series beginning Saturday, let’s explore both the reasons for optimism and the potential concerns facing yet another postseason.
Confidence: Shohei Ohtani
It’s worth noting that Shohei Ohtani had an extraordinary season.
Despite his overall dominance (.309 batting average, 54 home runs, 130 RBIs, and 59 steals), the last two weeks of his performance were especially remarkable.
Beginning on September 19, after achieving the historic 50-homer, 50-steal milestone, Ohtani recorded an impressive .628 batting average over his final 10 games (27 for 43), hitting six home runs, six doubles, and driving in 20 RBIs, while maintaining an equal number of strikeouts and walks (four each).
While it may not be entirely accurate to say the team’s postseason success will rely solely on him, that dynamic could have some truth to it. Should Ohtani remain in peak form, he might provide the offensive boost the Dodgers will surely need.
One of the key factors that could affect Ohtani’s performance in October is his ability to maintain plate discipline.
This season, despite his willingness to expand his hitting zone, he recorded a chase rate of 26.7%, the lowest since 2020 and nearly two points below the MLB average. After reaching the 50-50 milestone — a point at which manager Dave Roberts noted the slugger seemed to avoid chasing home runs — Ohtani swung at pitches outside the strike zone just 18% of the time, one of the crucial factors contributing to his stellar finish.
Concern: Injuries
During Thursday’s notable division-clinching victory over the Padres, Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman sprained his ankle; however, he is anticipated to make a return for Game 1 of the division series on Saturday. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
This time, the concern does not lie with the pitching staff.
Over the past week, Roberts has consistently expressed his expectation that first baseman Freddie Freeman (ankle sprain) and shortstop Miguel Rojas (adductor tear) will be part of the roster for Game 1 of the NLDS. Both players have shared similar optimism despite missing the final series of the regular season.
Nonetheless, if the Dodgers are able to reintegrate these two veterans, uncertainties will still loom over their performance.
Freeman had been struggling as the season drew to a close, managing only a .241 batting average in his last 15 games prior to injuring his ankle last Thursday. Meanwhile, Rojas was also experiencing a decline in productivity while contending with his injury, failing to secure a hit in his last 13 at-bats before exacerbating the issue the previous Wednesday.
Read more: Dodgers clinch MLB’s best record as Shohei Ohtani continues triple-crown chase
Both Freeman and Rojas play pivotal roles in the batting lineup, with Freeman contributing as a run-producer behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts, whereas Rojas had been generating momentum towards the bottom of the lineup, maintaining an average close to .300 until recent weeks.
Considering the existing pitching issues for the Dodgers, they may necessity rely on strong offensive performances to advance in the playoffs. The absence of a fully fit Freeman and Rojas would only heighten the challenges they face in this endeavor.
Confidence: the potential of Flaherty and Yamamoto
While they may not be Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, or even Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish,
the Dodgers can still harbor hope for a dependable 1-2 combination with Jack Flaherty and Yamamoto.
Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are slated to pitch in that sequence during the NLDS.
Yamamoto boasts impressive statistics from his rookie season, featuring a 3.00 ERA and 105 strikeouts over 90 innings, along with the velocity of an upper-90s fastball and a breaking pitch repertoire that can induce swings and misses, indicating his potential for postseason achievements.
Flaherty, on the other hand, has demonstrated reliable performance with a record of 13-7 and a 3.17 ERA across 28 starts this year. His experience includes having contributed to the St. Louis Cardinals’ appearance in the NLCS in 2019, exemplifying his capability to impact playoff games.
Currently, the Dodgers are without Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, or any of the other six starters who ended the season on the injured list, including Clayton Kershaw, who remains hopeful about making a playoff return despite his toe injury.
However, this season’s pitching duo is a more promising lineup compared to last year’s performance, which saw an ailing Kershaw take the mound in Game 1 and rookie Bobby Miller start Game 2 in their sweep by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Concern: Recent performances of the two pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto took the mound on Saturday against the Rockies for his final regular-season start, pitching five innings. (David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
Once again, Flaherty and Yamamoto do not rank as the leading pitching duo among this year’s playoff contenders.
As October approaches, they must elevate their performance from its recent state.
Although Flaherty stabilized the Dodgers’ rotation after joining at the trade deadline, his last three starts have raised some red flags. Over 14 innings, he surrendered 10 runs, 14 hits, and nine walks. His fastball velocity fell, averaging under 92 mph in his last two outings. Additionally, he only completed six innings in one of those three starts, a feat he managed in all but one of his first seven appearances with the team.
Yamamoto presents a different scenario, as he continues to regain form after missing three months due to a shoulder injury. Following outings of just four, four, and three innings upon his return from the injured list, he finally pitched five complete frames in Colorado this past weekend. Despite limited innings, he achieved a 3.38 ERA across four appearances in September.
Crucially, the Dodgers require endurance from their top pitchers to avoid further taxing an already strained bullpen. Both have shown they can provide this at times during the season, yet recent instances have been worryingly scarce, making ace-level production from either in the postseason uncertain.
Confidence: Lineup depth
For many stretches this season, the Dodgers’ lineup appeared heavily reliant on their top hitters. However, as the season progressed, they found greater balance throughout their batting order beyond their Big 3.
Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, and Will Smith provided stability in the middle of the order. Hernández completed a standout season with 33 home runs and 99 RBIs.
The RBI season, which is expected to yield a significant payday as a free agent this offseason, showcased a strong performance with a 1.012 OPS in September. After returning from a midseason oblique injury, Muncy concluded the stretch with a .925 OPS. Smith overcame a lengthy slump endured during the summer by registering a .289 batting average in his last 13 games.
Tommy Edman, the switch-hitting utility player, contributed some late-season power with six home runs and 20 RBIs after being acquired at the trade deadline, despite struggling from the left side of the plate.
From the bench, Kiké Hernández and Chris Taylor both exceeded .300 in batting average over the final month, providing the Dodgers with two players who can not only hit well but also excel defensively across the diamond. Rookie outfielder Andy Pages returned from his demotion at the end of August by hitting .556 as a September call-up, adding yet another exciting offensive option.
Read more: After ‘long funk’ and struggles with fastballs, has Will Smith rediscovered his swing?
Gavin Lux, the second baseman, has also been regaining his form, ending his unpredictable comeback from last year’s torn ACL by hitting seven for 15 in his final four games.
the Dodgers transformed from having the seventh-worst batting average in the bottom half of MLB during the first half of the season (.221 for the Nos. 5-9 spots at the All-Star break) to achieving the sixth-best average (.256) and the second-best OPS (.756) in the latter part of the season.
Concern: Clutch hitting
The Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernández celebrates with Shohei Ohtani by showering him with sunflower seeds as Ohtani heads back to the dugout after blasting a three-run homer during Friday’s matchup against the Rockies. (David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
First, a word of caution: The Dodgers’ performance in situational hitting during the second half of the season was strikingly different from that of the first half, just like their contributions from the lower part of the batting order.
Prior to the All-Star break, the team found themselves in the lower echelon of major league teams with a batting average of .250 and an OPS of .740 in scenarios with runners in scoring position.
However, post-break, they emerged with the best statistics in Major League Baseball for both metrics, boasting a .292 batting average and an .873 OPS. This transformation can be attributed in significant part to Ohtani’s personal success in these moments, as he went 15 for his last 26 when runners occupied second or third base.
Despite this, the haunting memories of the previous two Octobers continue to affect the fanbase deeply.
In 2022, the Dodgers were the leading situational hitting team in baseball but faltered by going just five for 34 (.147 average) with runners in scoring position during their NLDS elimination against the San Diego Padres in that postseason. The following year against the Diamondbacks was also disappointing, where the team could muster only four hits in 17 at-bats (.235) during a three-game sweep.
The acquisitions of Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, who contributed six game-tying or go-ahead hits in the late innings, are expected to bolster their performance. Nevertheless, the core group remains largely unchanged, underscoring the need for a turnaround in their recent playoff shortcomings to seize scoring chances effectively.
Confidence: The bullpen
As the season concluded, the Dodgers lacked a defined closer, with Michael Kopech taking on the most save opportunities after joining the team at the trade deadline.
Nonetheless, the relief pitching unit possesses substantial depth, as evidenced by six relievers completing the season with numbers above the league average.
Blake Treinen enters October riding a scoreless streak spanning 15 innings. Alex Vesia, with a 1.79 ERA this season, ranks fifth among all left-handed relievers in MLB. Despite Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson, and Ryan Brasier posting ERAs over 5.00 in September, they remain seasoned veterans with postseason experience.
The pivotal question revolves around the workload this group will shoulder and how effectively they can counter specific playoff rivals.
the Dodgers finished the season with a bullpen ERA of 3.53, placing them fourth among major league teams. Provided the rotation doesn’t overstrain them, they possess the talent to navigate through the playoffs successfully.
Concern: Bottom of the rotation
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During the fourth inning against the Padres last week, Dodgers pitcher Landon Knack displayed visible frustration. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
To prevent overextending the bullpen, it is essential for Walker Buehler and Landon Knack to step up.
Just a month ago, both players appeared unlikely to be part of the team’s postseason roster. Buehler ended August with a 5.88 ERA, facing challenges in his comeback after undergoing a second Tommy John surgery. Although Knack was performing well in his rookie season, he had been sent back to Triple-A.
However, as injuries began to affect the roster, both right-handed pitchers found their way back into consideration. Buehler displayed glimpses of his former confidence (if not entirely his prior effectiveness) in a few late outings, achieving at least five innings with two or fewer runs in three of his last five starts, including the division clincher last week against the Padres. Knack solidified his spot in the rotation after returning to the majors and having increased innings in the concluding games, wrapping up the season with a 3.65 ERA.
Nevertheless, both pitchers head into the postseason with a combined 4-11 record and a 4.55 ERA — statistics that hardly reflect postseason readiness. Manager Dave Roberts indicated that the Dodgers are contemplating employing an opener in front of Knack (similar to what they did in Sunday’s regular-season finale), given that they rarely relied on the former second-round draft pick to face an opposing lineup three times.
Confidence: Home-field advantage
Location does not always play a significant role in the playoffs (last year, for instance, home teams recorded a 15-26 record in October, which included the Dodgers’ two defeats at Chavez Ravine).
However, this season’s Dodgers have significantly improved performances at home.
Read more: Freddie Freeman aiming for NLDS return; Shohei Ohtani making triple crown push
Consider their overall performance: 52 wins and 29 losses at home, alongside a 46-35 record on the road.
Moreover, examining their pitching statistics reveals a 3.67 team ERA at Dodger Stadium compared to a 4.21 ERA in away games.
With a remarkable 98-64 record, the Dodgers have secured home-field advantage for the entirety of the playoffs.
This situation allows for a possible NLDS Game 5 to be held in Los Angeles instead of in places like San Diego, New York, or Atlanta. Additionally, a Game 7 will not take place in Philadelphia, a venue known for its intimidating home atmosphere.
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This article was originally published in the Los Angeles Times.
Heading into October: The Dodgers’ Playoff Hopes Rest on Ohtani’s Brilliance and Overcoming Key Concerns
The Dodgers’ Current Standings and Playoff Prospects
As October approaches, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a pivotal moment of the MLB season. With the postseason looming, the team must navigate challenges while banking on standout performances, particularly from superstar Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers are poised for a playoff run, but several key factors will determine their success.
Current Performance Overview
| Category | Stats | Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 92 | 1st in NL West |
| Losses | 68 | |
| Run Differential | +150 | |
| Current Streak | W4 |
Ohtani’s Impact on the Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani, with his dual-threat capability as a pitcher and hitter, has emerged as a pivotal figure for the Dodgers. His performance could significantly influence the team’s playoff hopes.
- Pitching Dominance: Ohtani’s ability to take the mound as an ace pitcher provides the Dodgers with a competitive edge. His strikeout rates and ERA have been among the best in the league.
- Offensive Firepower: As a powerful hitter, Ohtani’s contributions at the plate can turn games around in crucial moments. His home runs and RBIs are vital statistics that add depth to the Dodgers’ lineup.
- Leadership Qualities: Ohtani’s presence in the clubhouse fosters a winning mentality, encouraging teammates to elevate their performance.
Key Concerns as October Approaches
Despite a strong season, the Dodgers face several concerns that could impact their playoff journey:
Injury Issues
Injuries have plagued the Dodgers throughout the season, impacting their roster depth. Key players have missed significant time, leading to concerns about overall team health heading into the playoffs.
- Starting Pitching: With questions surrounding the health of pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías, the Dodgers must strategize effectively to fill potential gaps in their rotation.
- Position Players: Injuries to critical position players could affect batting order consistency and defensive alignments.
Defensive Struggles
The Dodgers’ defensive metrics have not been as stellar as in previous years. Key areas of concern include:
- Fielding Errors: An increase in errors can lead to unearned runs, which could be detrimental in close playoff games.
- Outfield Cohesion: Miscommunication in the outfield has led to missed catches and runs scored against. This needs to be rectified before postseason play.
Consistency in Batting
The Dodgers boast a powerful lineup, yet inconsistency in batting has been noticeable. The following factors will be crucial:
- Clutch Hitting: The team must improve its performance in high-pressure situations, especially in the late innings.
- Leadoff Performance: Finding a reliable leadoff hitter who can get on base will be essential for setting the tone early in games.
Benefits of Relying on Ohtani
Having Ohtani in the lineup not only bolsters the Dodgers’ immediate chances but offers long-term benefits as well:
- Creating Matchup Problems: Opposing teams will struggle to create effective game plans against a player of Ohtani’s caliber, forcing managers to make tough decisions.
- Increased Fan Engagement: Ohtani’s presence draws larger crowds, enhancing the Dodgers’ home-field advantage during pivotal playoff games.
- Investment in Future Success: Ohtani’s continued excellence can attract other top-tier talent to the Dodgers, solidifying their place as perennial contenders.
Practical Tips for the Dodgers as They Prepare for the Playoffs
To maximize their chances of postseason success, the Dodgers should consider the following strategies:
1. Focus on Health Management
Implementing a rigorous health management plan will be crucial. This includes:
- Monitoring player workloads
- Utilizing sports science to prevent injuries
2. Strengthen Defensive Coordination
Enhancing communication and drilling defensive plays can mitigate errors and improve overall team performance. Regular practice sessions focused on defensive fundamentals should be prioritized.
3. Sharpen Batting Skills
Encouraging players to work on situational hitting can lead to improved clutch performance. Incorporating targeted batting practice in high-pressure scenarios will better prepare players for playoff intensity.
Case Study: Previous Successful October Runs
| Year | Notable Players | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager | World Series Champions |
| 2017 | Justin Turner, Clayton Kershaw | NL Champions |
| 2016 | Andrew Toles, Kenley Jansen | NLCS Runners-Up |
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Dodgers Legends
Former Dodgers players have shared valuable insights into what it takes to succeed in October:
“The key to winning in the playoffs is to embrace pressure. This is where stars are born, and the team must rally around each other.” – Orlando Hudson
“Having a player like Ohtani can change the dynamics of the game. He’s not just a player; he’s a game-changer.” – Fernando Valenzuela
Conclusion
Heading into October, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ playoff aspirations hinge on the brilliance of Shohei Ohtani and addressing key concerns. By focusing on health management, strengthening defensive coordination, and sharpening their batting skills, the Dodgers can position themselves for a successful postseason run.
