NHL front offices need to anticipate ​the contract status ⁤of star players well in advance.

This proactive approach is crucial due to the substantial ripple effect that occurs when a top performer transitions from being⁢ significantly underpaid to demanding a high salary. This shift can reduce available funds for other roster components, necessitating difficult choices regarding player retention.

Leon Draisaitl’s recent eight-year, $112 million extension marks the beginning of significant contract negotiations for other marquee players whose deals will expire at the conclusion of the 2024-25 season. Which stars are likely to follow, what will‍ their costs be, and how will these changes affect⁣ their teams’ salary cap situations?⁣ In this article, we will ‌explore these ‍questions, primarily ‍focusing on ‍those ⁣players projected to experience a considerable increase‍ in their cap hits‌ (notably excluding Sidney Crosby, as his forthcoming contract is unlikely to⁢ exceed the $8.7 million AAV he⁢ currently ‍holds).

Every team mentioned here has the⁤ financial capacity to extend the elite player in focus. However, the objective is to showcase which teams can manage it with greater ease and what sacrifices may need to be made ‌elsewhere.

During negotiations for a new contract, a ⁤team and player will seek out similar athletes in terms of performance, age,‌ and overall worth. ​They assess what these comparables received in their contracts, which often ‍establishes‌ a general ⁤range for the player’s market value. It’s essential to grasp that the percentage of‍ the cap hit carries more significance ⁣than the AAV when determining these star players’ future contracts.

To illustrate⁣ this, consider an example: Draisaitl’s $14 million cap hit represents the highest AAV in NHL history. Although some may be surprised by⁣ such a figure, it is reasonable when ‍factoring in the projected increase in ‍the salary ‌cap for the 2025-26​ season. Draisaitl’s cap hit in the⁣ first year of his contract will consume⁤ a percentage of the salary cap ceiling⁣ comparable to what Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon’s deals occupied in the initial year of their contracts.

Always prioritize salary ⁣cap percentage over AAV when considering contract⁢ comparables.

There are so

Numerous elite players’⁣ contract situations ‍could be examined, but today we’ll concentrate on five fascinating cases.

Current cap hit: $5.67 million

Expiry status: Unrestricted free agent

Estimated cost of his next deal: Shesterkin is arguably the best goaltender⁢ in the world, ‍and his next contract will reflect that status.

As noted by colleague Arthur Staple, Carey Price’s 2017 extension, which consumed 14 percent of the salary cap at that time, may serve as a benchmark for Shesterkin’s representatives. If the⁣ salary cap rises to $92 million for the 2025-26 season, 14 percent ‍would ‍equate to a $12.9 million ‌cap hit. A more‌ relevant comparable ⁢for ⁢the Rangers might be Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year extension, which accounted for 9.66 percent of the cap and would translate‌ to an $8.9 million cap hit. While Shesterkin’s ⁤statistics surpass those of Hellebuyck, particularly in ⁢playoff performance, negotiations typically begin with both sides far apart and gradually ‍converge. The Rangers may reference a comparable like Hellebuyck’s deal but wouldn’t anticipate that figure ‌as the final outcome.

By averaging the ‌cap hit percentages of Price and Hellebuyck, we could estimate about 11.8 percent​ of the‌ cap, leading to a $10.9 million‌ cap hit. This would establish a record AAV‍ for ‌a goaltender and would be in line with Andrei Vasilevskiy’s previous deal (his cap hit percentage⁣ would result in a $10.7⁢ million AAV).

Projected cap space prior to Shesterkin’s extension (with a $92 million cap ceiling): $33.8 million (10 ‌players​ signed)

Rangers’ pending UFAs in​ 2025: Shesterkin, Ryan Lindgren,‍ Reilly Smith, Jonathan Quick, Jimmy Vesey, Chad Ruhwedel

Rangers’ pending RFAs in 2025: Alexis Lafrenière, K’Andre Miller, Kaapo Kakko, Will Cuylle, ‍Zac Jones, Adam Edstrom, Matt Rempe

The issue for the Rangers is that Shesterkin is not the only significant player requiring a substantial raise. Lafrenière will also seek a new contract, and if his impressive progress from last year continues, he may have a stellar 2024-25 ‍season which could further increase the cost of his next contract. Additionally, K’Andre Miller,⁣ a foundational top-four defenseman, will also need a new deal.

How tight will the Rangers’ cap situation be? Let’s ‍create a rough projection. ‌Assuming a $10.9 million cap hit for​ Shesterkin, we can reference ⁣AFP Analytics’ projections for‌ Lafrenière ($7 ⁣million AAV) and Miller ($6.4 million AAV). While you might have different views on these projections ​(for instance, I believe $7 million is quite low for Lafrenière), the goal here is to establish a reasonably realistic estimate ⁤that allows us to illustrate the broader cap scenario rather than fine-tuning contract projections with pinpoint ⁤accuracy.

With the earlier estimates, Shesterkin, Lafrenière, and Miller would ‍collectively cost $24.3 million. In this ​hypothetical ⁢scenario, New York would be left with $9.5 million in ⁢cap ⁤space, which‍ is minimal considering only 13 players would be signed, and there would⁢ still be a need for another top-six forward and a top-four defenseman (not including Lindgren, who will be a pending UFA). It seems unlikely that the Rangers can afford to re-sign Lindgren next summer and they will likely need ‌to find a way to offload the remaining year of Jacob Trouba’s $8‌ million‌ contract. Without a move for Trouba, it will be incredibly challenging for‍ the team to‍ stay competitive for the​ Stanley Cup given the high costs⁤ associated with their top players in 2025-26.

An important variable in all of this is the development of ⁢top prospects Gabe Perreault and Brennan Othmann. If they can step up as top-nine forwards on inexpensive entry-level contracts by the 2025-26 season, it‌ would significantly ⁢ease this cap crunch.

Current cap hit: $3.9⁤ million

Expiry status: Restricted free agent with arbitration rights

Projected ⁤cost of his next⁤ deal: Bouchard had a breakout season, scoring 18 goals ‍and ⁤accumulating 82 points, which earned him a fifth-place finish in Norris ⁢Trophy voting. He ⁣has solidified his status ⁣as an elite defenseman and is poised to continue racking up impressive point totals while playing⁢ alongside Connor McDavid both at even strength and ⁣on the power play. Although his leverage may be somewhat ⁢diminished as a restricted free agent still under team⁤ control, his arbitration ‍rights remain a significant asset.

According to AFP Analytics, Bouchard’s upcoming ‌contract is anticipated to fall within the $10.1 million ‌AAV range. Should he have another outstanding season, his representatives might‍ advocate ‍for a deal closer to Rasmus Dahlin’s extension at $11 million ⁣AAV‍ secured last summer. For now, we‍ will use AFP‍ Analytics’ projection of a $10.1 million cap hit.

Projected cap⁤ space prior to ⁢Bouchard’s extension (based on a​ $92 million cap‍ ceiling): $14.6 million (16 players signed)

Oilers 2025 pending UFAs: Jeff Skinner, Connor Brown, Corey Perry, Derek⁣ Ryan, Ty ⁤Emberson

Oilers ⁢2025 pending RFAs:‍ Bouchard

Next summer, the Oilers will experience some salary cap constraints, but they may not be in​ as ⁤dire a situation as one might anticipate considering ⁢the increases for Draisaitl and Bouchard. Right off the bat, ​the⁤ team ​will gain an additional $3.225 million in cap space​ as ​the dead ​cap hit from Connor ⁢Brown’s​ performance bonus overage will no longer apply. ⁤A substantial⁣ portion of Draisaitl and Bouchard’s salary hikes can be managed using‍ just the $3.225 million from Brown’s bonus alongside the projected $4 million increase in the‌ cap.

If Bouchard signs for $10.1 million AAV, Edmonton will have‌ approximately $4.5 million in cap space with 17⁣ players under contract. This situation will be tight—the Oilers will need to secure a middle-six forward if Jeff Skinner departs, as ⁤well as a few depth​ players—but a significant talent exodus is unlikely.⁢ With Matt ​Savoie potentially ⁤ready to step into ⁤a top-nine role at an entry-level contract‌ rate, this could also help ease the financial strain.

The Oilers might consider moving on from the final year of Evander Kane’s contract ($5.125 million) to create more ⁤cap flexibility, especially since his no-movement clause will transition to a ‌16-team trade list by the following summer. This cap relief could allow⁣ Edmonton to pursue a ⁤right-shot defenseman to‍ bolster their top-four lineup.

While GM⁢ Stan Bowman will have limited funds to work with next summer, ‌the team shouldn’t have to part with key roster​ players due to cap constraints.

Current cap hit: ⁤$9.25 million

Expiry status: Unrestricted free⁤ agent

Projected cost of his⁤ next deal: Rantanen’s next ‌contract should at least match the $11.5 million⁣ AAV of William Nylander’s recent extension, which spanned eight years (13.1 percent of the cap) and would translate to a bit more than $12 million based on a $92 million cap ceiling for 2025-26. Rantanen has ⁤surpassed‌ 100 points in consecutive⁣ seasons and⁣ boasts an average of⁢ 1.27 points per game‍ over the ⁤last three seasons, while Nylander has never reached the 100-point milestone, averaging 1.08 points per game during the same period.

Draisaitl’s substantial $14 million AAV extension essentially sets the ceiling for ‌Rantanen’s contract. However, Draisaitl ​has consistently outperformed Rantanen in the past six seasons and plays a more valuable center position.

Rantanen is​ expected ⁣to‌ earn ⁤more than Nylander but less than⁣ Draisaitl, so a‌ figure of around $13 million would represent a balanced‍ approach between the two contracts. Another relevant comparison is David Pastrnak’s eight-year extension secured in 2023, which utilized 13.5⁢ percent⁢ of the cap, equating⁢ to just under ​$12.5 million for 2025-26. Based ⁢on these assessments, Rantanen’s market value is likely in the range of $12.5-13 million. Let’s find a middle ground and…

Plugging in a $12.75 million cap hit for Rantanen.

While ‍some ⁣Avalanche fans might dispute the idea of Rantanen potentially surpassing Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6 ​million cap⁣ hit,​ it’s ⁢possible ‌that ⁤an internal discussion could adjust the figure closer⁣ to $12.5 million.‍ However, it’s crucial to remember that MacKinnon’s contract, signed two years ago, is outdated due to the lower salary cap at ⁣that time.

Projected cap space before Rantanen’s extension​ (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $21.3⁤ million (13 players signed)

Avalanche key 2025 pending UFAs: Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin, Alexandar Georgiev, Logan‍ O’Connor, Oliver⁢ Kylington, Calvin de Haan, Joel Kiviranta

Avalanche key 2025 pending RFAs: Nikolai Kovalenko, Erik Brannstrom

If we include​ a $12.75 million estimate​ for Rantanen, the Avalanche will find themselves with approximately $8.6 million of cap space remaining with only 14 players signed. ⁣This situation ⁤will ⁤be quite tight, as they will require a starting goaltender, ⁤potentially⁤ one or ⁤two top-nine forwards (given that Drouin and O’Connor are pending​ UFAs), and ​they currently have just four NHL defensemen under ⁤contract for 2025-26. Additionally, the absence of promising prospects ‌likely to transition to the NHL in 2025-26 means they won’t have inexpensive talent to fill entry-level contracts.

Will Colorado need to offload a⁣ significant contract to make room for⁣ acquiring a legitimate‍ starter and addressing other depth concerns ⁢affordably? For example, while Ross ⁣Colton has been a valuable asset as the team’s third-line center, his $4 million salary might become ⁣a luxury the ​Avalanche can no longer sustain. Presently, he holds a full‍ no-trade clause, but that will convert to partial control next offseason. Valeri Nichushkin’s future also raises questions, as it could have substantial cap implications.

Regardless, GM Chris MacFarland will have to devise creative and strategic solutions to effectively round out his roster once Rantanen’s contract ​is ​resolved.

Current‍ cap hit: $894,167

Ex

Expiry status: Restricted free⁢ agent

What ‍his next deal could roughly⁢ cost: Heading into the final year of his entry-level contract, Johnston possesses substantial breakout potential. In his sophomore season, the 21-year-old netted 28 goals and amassed 65 points. Following ⁤Joe ‌Pavelski’s retirement, he is‌ expected to see increased ⁣time on the first-unit power play, which could enhance his offensive output and bring ⁣him closer to a point-per-game average. Notably,⁣ he achieved that level in the second half of​ the season, scoring 21 goals and collecting 41 points‌ over his last 41 games.

A significant performance in the upcoming year would likely raise the value of his next contract. ‌Another crucial consideration will be whether the Stars choose a short-term bridge contract at a lower cap hit (similar to their approach with Jason⁢ Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Jake Oettinger) or opt for a long-term extension with⁣ a higher cap hit (as they ‍did with Miro Heiskanen).

According⁢ to AFP Analytics, Johnston ‌is projected to earn approximately $8.1 million per year on a six-year deal or about $6.4 million annually on a three-year contract.

Projected cap space before Johnston’s extension (assuming a $92 million ‍cap ceiling): $42.7 million (9 players signed)

Stars key⁣ 2025 pending UFAs: Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Evgenii Dadonov, Sam Steel, Colin Blackwell

Stars key 2025 pending RFAs: Johnston, Jake ‍Oettinger, Mavrik Bourque, Nils Lundkvist

Although⁤ the projected cap space of $42.7 million may seem substantial, ‍it can be misleading. The Stars have only⁣ nine players signed for the 2025-26 season,⁣ and several significant players need new contracts in addition to​ Johnston. Key defender Thomas Harley has yet to sign for ⁢this season, while Oettinger will be⁤ a restricted free agent at the end of the next season. Benn,‌ Duchene, and Lindell are notable names among ⁤the pending UFAs.

Just how challenging will the Stars’ cap situation be next summer? ⁤Using AFP Analytics’ estimate ​for a Johnston bridge contract ($6.4 million), ⁢a Harley bridge⁤ contract (a two-year deal with a $4.1 million AAV), and a long-term deal for Oettinger ($7​ million x five years), we can project the⁣ financial landscape since Oettinger‌ is nearing unrestricted free agency. Under ​this scenario, Dallas would have‌ approximately $21.2 million in cap space left with 12 players signed. Additionally, the Stars must factor‌ in that the 2025-26 season‍ will be the final year​ of Jason‍ Robertson’s budget-friendly bridge deal.

Securing a long-term deal for Johnston would be ideal for Dallas, ⁢especially given his potential as a rising star. However, with numerous ⁣other commitments on the horizon, the team may have to settle for a shorter bridge ⁣contract.

Current ‌cap hit: $4 million

Expiry status: Restricted free agent with arbitration ⁢rights

What​ his next deal could roughly cost: Dobson established himself as a legitimate No. 1 defenseman last year, accumulating⁤ 70 points in 79 games and finishing in the top-10 ‌for Norris Trophy voting. AFP Analytics estimates that his next contract could carry⁣ a cap hit around $10 million. However, ⁣this figure may be slightly inflated. While Dobson’s offensive statistics are exceptional — the basis for ⁣these projections — he is still refining his defensive skills.

Most NHL general managers would likely choose Charlie McAvoy over Dobson, for instance. McAvoy signed an extension in 2021 at 10.8 percent⁤ of the salary cap, translating to approximately $9.9 million for the 2025-26 season. I would argue that Dobson ⁣should fall just ⁣below that figure, potentially in ‍the range of $9.5⁢ million. For this analysis, ⁢let’s assign a $9.5 million cap hit.

Projected cap space before Dobson’s extension (assuming a ‌$92 million cap ceiling): $26.2 million (13 players signed)

Islanders 2025 ‍pending‌ UFAs: Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Hudson​ Fasching

Islanders 2025 pending RFAs: ​ Dobson, Alexander Romanov, Simon Holmstrom, Samuel Bolduc,⁤ Oliver Wahlstrom

The Islanders are facing limited financial‍ flexibility moving forward.

Due to their cap⁢ situation, the‍ team will have the opportunity to enhance their roster next summer.

If Dobson secures a re-signing with an AAV of $9.5 million, Lou ‍Lamoriello‌ will be left with approximately $16.7 million ⁣to utilize. This amount is ​limited, especially in light of the team’s requirements. With the contracts of Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri set to expire, the Islanders will need to acquire two top-six forwards just to retain their current roster strength. Additionally, defenseman Alexander Romanov, who established himself in the top four during last season, will seek compensation as a restricted​ free agent. Furthermore, they’ll also need to address multiple depth positions in their lineup.

In order to ‍gain the necessary cap flexibility for significant roster improvements next summer, the Isles must explore exit strategies for Jean-Gabriel Pageau and/or⁤ Anders ‌Lee, whose ‌contracts are considered overpriced.

Other​ significant UFAs and RFAs ⁤to keep an eye on: Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers), Shea Theodore (Golden Knights),‌ Sidney Crosby (Penguins), Brock Boeser (Canucks), Nikolaj Ehlers ​(Jets), Mitch Marner (Maple Leafs), Alexis Lafrenière (Rangers), Luke Hughes ⁢(Devils), Jack Quinn (Sabres), Linus Ullmark (Senators), Mason McTavish​ (Ducks), Dylan Guenther (Utah HC)

(Photos of Evan Bouchard and Mikko Rantanen: Sergei Belski / USA Today‍ and Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

Future Contracts and Cap ​Crunch: How NHL Teams ​Must‍ Prepare ⁣for ⁤Rising Star Salaries

The​ Current Landscape of NHL Contracts

The NHL is in the⁤ midst of a fascinating transformation where the economics​ of player contracts are ‍evolving rapidly. As ⁤young⁤ players ​continue to emerge⁣ as⁢ league stars, their salaries are expected to skyrocket, leading to what many ‍are calling a “cap ⁢crunch.” ⁤In this‌ article, we will explore⁣ how NHL teams can navigate ⁢this complex landscape and prepare for the‌ future of⁣ rising star​ salaries.

Understanding the Cap Crunch

The term “cap crunch” refers to the difficulties NHL teams face in managing their salary ⁣cap due to ⁣the increasing salaries of emerging talent. With a hard salary cap, teams must strategically ‌allocate their financial resources.‌ Here are some key factors contributing to the cap crunch:

• Inflation of ​Player⁣ Salaries: As‍ younger players demonstrate exceptional​ skills and value, ‍their contract demands escalate, leading to pressure on the overall salary cap.
• Short-Term Contracts: Teams are⁣ increasingly opting ​for shorter-term contracts, which can lead to more frequent negotiations and higher overall costs.
• Increased Competition: ‍With teams vying for similar talent, bidding ‍wars‍ can drive ⁢salaries⁢ to unprecedented levels.

How Rising Star Salaries Impact Team ‍Strategies

As teams anticipate rising ‌salaries for their star‌ players, they must ‌adopt​ strategies to maintain competitiveness while adhering to salary cap regulations. Here are several approaches teams can take:

1. ​Proactive Contract Management

Teams need to be proactive​ in their contract negotiations. This ⁣means:

• Identifying key‍ players early and locking them⁣ into favorable long-term deals.
• Utilizing performance incentives to ensure⁤ players are rewarded ​based on their contributions.
• Creating flexible contracts that accommodate future salary increases.

2. Developing Young‍ Talent

Investing in youth development through farm​ teams and scouting is crucial. Teams ⁣that successfully cultivate ‍homegrown talent can benefit⁣ from:

• Avoiding the inflated costs of ⁤signing external free agents.
• Having‍ players on⁣ entry-level contracts for ⁤a duration, thus providing salary cap relief.

3. Strategic Trades and Acquisitions

To manage salary cap​ space effectively, teams must be strategic‍ in their ‍trades. This includes:

• Identifying⁤ underperforming players on large contracts who could be traded for younger, less costly talent.
• Acquiring players with expiring contracts who ​can bolster playoff runs ​without long-term financial commitment.

Benefits of⁢ Preparing for‍ Rising Star Salaries

Being ahead⁢ of the curve regarding player salaries ⁤can pay dividends. Here are some benefits of preparation:

• Maintained Competitive Edge: Teams that successfully navigate rising salaries can maintain a strong roster capable of ⁤competing for⁢ championships.
• Financial Stability: Proper⁣ management helps avoid ‌the pitfalls of overpaying ⁣for talent, which can ​lead to⁢ long-term financial issues.
• Attracting‍ Talent: Teams that are well-managed in terms of salary cap are more appealing to both players and free agents.

Case Studies:⁣ Successful‍ Navigation of⁤ the Cap Crunch

1. Tampa​ Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a prime ⁣example of effective salary cap management.⁣ By recognizing the importance of locking in young talent, the Lightning‍ secured long-term contracts with key players‍ like Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Their strategy has⁣ not only kept the team competitive but has also allowed them to build a championship-caliber roster while ⁣staying within ‌the salary cap.

2. Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs faced significant‌ challenges due to ⁢the ⁣high salaries ‍of stars like Auston‍ Matthews and Mitchell Marner.⁢ Their approach has​ included:

• Seeking ⁣low-cost depth players to balance out salary expenditures.
• Utilizing their‌ AHL affiliate‌ to develop prospects that can step up when needed.

Practical Tips for NHL Teams

To effectively prepare‍ for the future of rising star salaries, NHL teams should ​consider the following practical tips:

• Regular Salary Cap Assessments: Conduct monthly assessments of cap ‍space and projected player costs to⁤ ensure ‌financial awareness.
• Clear Communication: Maintain ⁢open lines ​of communication with players ‍regarding their performance expectations and salary implications.
• Engage with Analytics: ⁢ Utilize advanced analytics to assess player performance and ⁤contract value, helping to make⁤ informed​ decisions.

First-Hand Experience: Insights⁤ From Team Executives

In interviews with several NHL team executives, a common theme⁢ emerged regarding the importance of adaptability. Executives⁤ emphasized ⁢that⁢ teams ⁣must always be ready to adjust their strategies based on the evolving market. ​One executive noted:

⁣”The landscape is always shifting.‌ If you’re not prepared to pivot when​ necessary, you risk falling behind the competition.”

Future Trends​ in NHL Contracts

As we look to⁢ the future, several trends will⁤ likely influence how NHL teams ​approach player ‍contracts:

• Increased Use of Analytics: More teams will leverage ⁢data analytics to evaluate player performance and potential, leading to smarter investments.
• More Flexible Contracts: As players demand more from their contracts, teams may begin to adopt more flexible ‌structures that include performance bonuses and team options.
• Expansion of Salary Cap: As league revenues grow, ‍there is potential for an increase in the⁢ salary cap, which could alter contract negotiations significantly.

Table: Projected Salary ‍Cap vs. ‍Rising ‌Star Salaries

Conclusion

As​ NHL teams navigate the complexities of‌ rising star salaries, strategic foresight and flexibility will be paramount. ⁢By adopting proactive measures and preparing for the cap ‌crunch, franchises can maintain competitiveness and ⁣financial stability in an ever-evolving league landscape.