It’s astonishing to realize NASCAR’s playoff format has been in existence for 20 years. The Chase for the Cup, the original ’new’ playoff system, debuted in 2004. For its first three years, it crowned champions from three different organizations, proving remarkably effective at keeping the title fight captivating until the very end. However, Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus, and the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team arrived to shatter these expectations, turning NASCAR’s carefully crafted plans into pieces akin to a million Lowe’s-colored splinters.
NASCAR has consistently striven to refine its playoff format, culminating in a complete overhaul in 2014 that stunned the racing world. This multi-round elimination system aimed to prevent any single driver from dominating the competition like Johnson had done. Yet, after Joey Logano secured his third championship in Phoenix and Team Penske claimed their third consecutive Cup title, one can’t help but wonder if they’ve inadvertently achieved NASCAR’s worst nightmare: cracking the code to winning the playoff game as effortlessly as the No. 48 once did.
Championship victory lane: NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2010 champion Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Motorspor
Photo by: Motorsport.com / ASP Inc.
Consider this: Logano is the epitome of this era’s Jimmie Johnson. Keep in mind, I’m not comparing their seasons point-by-point. However, he’s the sole driver with three championships under the current format, claiming three out of the last seven Cup titles. Following last weekend’s Penske 1-2 finish, the team now boasts three consecutive victories—a feat last achieved during Johnson’s reign. While not on par with Johnson and Knaus’ five-year dominance, it’s an impressive accomplishment for a format designed to prevent any driver from establishing unyielding control or consistent winning streaks. Yet, Logano is tied for the most appearances in the final four stage of the playoffs.
Analyzing Logano’s championship wins reveals a prevalent pattern: each victory coincided with a win in the first race of the Round of 8. He secured the title by outmaneuvering Martin Truex Jr. at Martinsville in 2018, topping Ross Chastain at Vegas that same season in 2022, and excelling in a fuel-mileage battle at Vegas in 2024. For the two weeks following those crucial race wins, his team focused solely on preparing for the finale; their efforts sometimes culminated in unsatisfactory results during the subsequent races. However, they then consistently finished by winning the championship race. It’s worth noting that Logano never won more than two races during the 26-race regular season in any of these championship runs, but his victories always resonated when it mattered most.
Beware Number 48…and Now Number 22?
Once the Chase for the Cup commenced each year, everyone acknowledged that Johnson and the No. 48 were destined to eventually emerge victorious. It didn’t matter how they performed for the majority of the season – Johnson and his team consistently found a way to succeed in those final ten races. They even secured another championship title under NASCAR’s evolving format revisions, including his record-tying seventh during the Championship 4 era. Interestingly, this was the first time he won at Homestead; throughout all his previous years, he never needed to (points racing still carried significant weight in the playoff’s old structure). Like Logano, Johnson executed precisely what was required, when it was necessary, and derived substantial advantages from doing so.
These teams essentially used the first 26 race weeks as a time for meticulous preparation and refinement of their cars specifically for the races that truly mattered. Look at Logano earlier this season—his crew often appeared to be piecing things together and stumbling over themselves during those early stages….
Several champions throughout NASCAR history have entered their titles with sluggish starts. Notably, Joey Logano’s championship seasons have often begun with an underwhelming performance followed by a late surge of dominance. For example, in 2024, he secured only one top-five finish across the first 14 races. In 2022, it took him almost halfway through the season before tasting victory, and in 2018, his regular season success was limited to a single superspeedway win.
Logano’s methodical approach to winning, striking when crucial, strongly echoes the Hendrick No. 48 team of the late 2000s. While he doesn’t dominate like Johnson did in that era, the current format demands a different strategy. This system allows for victories late in the season, even after early struggles, as drivers can advance through the playoffs on the strength of several wins leading up to the championship.
Surviving the first two playoff rounds in this format grants teams a crucial advantage: winning just one more race could put them within striking distance of the championship. Logano showcases this brilliance, turning average seasons, like his 17.1 average finish this year—the lowest ever for a champion—into gold by effectively exploiting the system’s mechanics, much like the No. 48 of old.
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Menards/Richmond Water Heaters Ford Mustang and Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
This “win-when-it-counts” strategy also extends to Logano’s teammate Ryan Blaney. In 2023 and 2024, Blaney managed only a single regular season win each year. However, he consistently delivers victories at crucial playoff moments, including winning the Round of 8 in his respective seasons. The difference between Blaney and Logano lies in their timing: while Logano tends to clinch the opening race of that penultimate round, Blaney often triumphs in the closing race.
This strategic contrast is most visible when comparing these drivers to Jimmie Johnson’s five consecutive championships from 2006 to 2010. While Johnson was a dominant force throughout his reign, especially during the postseason, a significant majority of his wins occurred within the regular season. This consistency stemmed from the format’s emphasis on accumulated points over ten weeks at the end of the season.
However, when Johnson couldn’t shake rival contenders, he would shift gears, securing crucial victories in the playoffs to seal his fate. For example, during the 2007 season, he trailed Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon halfway through the championship race. Undeterred, Johnkson won four out of the next five races, effectively shattering Gordon’s aspirations.
Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang, winner, Burn Out
Photo by: Gavin Baker / NKP / Motorsport Images
Logano’s approach wasn’t always this win-at-all-costs strategy. In 2015, his strongest season to date, he finished sixth in points, demonstrating complete commitment across each playoff race, regardless of his position within the standings. He even achieved a remarkable sweep during one round, an accomplishment never before witnessed in this format.
However, his relentless pursuit of victory came at a cost. His aggressive maneuvers against Matt Kenseth
Logano’s current demeanor is a stark contrast to his earlier self. He has matured into a more deliberate and aggressive racer, unleashing his intensity only when crucial. A prime example was his cunning maneuver at Martinsville that foiled Kenseth, denying him the victory and 2015 title in a thrilling showdown. Perhaps Kenseth’s tactics inadvertently played a pivotal role in shaping Logano into the accomplished three-time champion he is today.
It seems NASCAR’s Chase format is perpetually under scrutiny. Back when Jimmie Johnson was dominating, fans decried the system for his overwhelming control. Now, with a format favoring elimination, cynics bemoan Logano’s perceived lack of consistent dominance throughout the season. When previous systems prioritized point accumulation, even a single win garnered championship chances—much to the chagrin of those accustomed to outright supremacy. Ultimately, NASCAR’s ever-evolving structures inevitably find vulnerabilities that skilled drivers like Logano and Team Penske exploit. Time will tell if this potent combination can seize another championship in 2025.
