In the lead-up to the upcoming offseason, TGP will regularly examine various free agents who would be a good fit for the Philadelphia Phillies. Our analysis will take into account factors such as cost, age, position, and how well each player fits into the roster.
We will also consider the implications for the competitive balance tax, although it can be challenging to determine exact figures prior to finalizing arbitration salaries. Currently, the Phillies’ projected payroll for 2025 stands at approximately $241 million, which aligns precisely with the initial luxury tax threshold. Exceeding that figure by at least $40 million would result in a reduction of ten slots in the first-round draft selection. However, we will proceed under the assumption that Dave Dombrowski is functioning with an unrestricted payroll, as suggested by Matt Gelb in a recent article for the Athletic.
Without further ado, here’s our initial list of free agents who could potentially benefit the Phillies.
Juan Soto, OF
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This is the clearest scenario. At just 25 years old, Soto has already established himself as one of the premier hitters in baseball. During his inaugural season with the Yankees, he recorded an impressive slash line of .288/.419/.569, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 119 RBIs, positioning him as a likely MVP candidate. Renowned for having the best eye in the sport, Soto boasts a career on-base percentage of .421, the 19th highest in MLB history among those who have played at least 900 games. Notably, he is still younger than players like Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh.
Soto, represented by Scott Boras, will enter the free-agent market as the most coveted player, expected to command a contract around $500 million. Acquiring Soto would likely push the Phillies over the $241 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold by at least $40 million, which would adversely affect their draft capabilities. Nevertheless, Soto would be an ideal addition to the Phillies’ lineup, offering a significant contrast to their tendency to chase, thereby significantly widening their championship window.
However, this situation applies to nearly every team in baseball. There is a strong expectation that Soto will remain in New York, either as a Yankee or potentially moving across town.
The Mets are in pursuit of Soto. Although the Phillies are also interested, they face significant challenges in attracting the young superstar. However, several factors may bolster their chances. Ownership is willing to spend, and the team features a trio of Soto’s former teammates: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber. Additionally, they currently work with Soto’s preferred hitting coach, Kevin Long, and maintain a strong rapport with his agent, Scott Boras. It remains to be seen how these elements will influence Soto’s ultimate decision.
Alex Bregman, 3B
Many in Philadelphia believe that the Phillies are likely to part ways with at least one of Bohm, Stott, or Marsh as they seek to enhance an offense that has struggled in three consecutive postseasons. Bregman would only be a viable option if Bohm is the player they choose to let go.
A former roommate of Aaron Nola at LSU, Bregman is a two-time World Series champion with the Houston Astros and will celebrate his 31st birthday at the beginning of the next season. he had a solid season, posting a .768 OPS and hitting 26 home runs. However, he experienced a particularly rough start, managing only a .219 average with a .652 OPS in 55 games by the end of May. In contrast, Nick Castellanos recorded a .210 average and a .610 OPS during his well-documented slow start over 58 games. Nevertheless, like Castellanos, Bregman revitalized his season once June arrived, achieving a .284 batting average, a .337 on-base percentage, and a .500 slugging percentage over 90 games from June 1st until the season’s conclusion.
Despite this late surge, Bregman still posted career lows in both OPS and walk percentage. He has historically been the kind of hitter that the Phillies require—one who can work counts and refrain from chasing pitches outside the strike zone. However, recent patterns indicate that these strengths may be diminishing. His walk percentage plummeted from 12.7% in 2023 to just 6.9% in 2024. This decline coincides with an increase in his chase percentage (22.2%) and a higher occurrence of contact with pitches outside the zone (75.2%). Though his chase percentage would still rank among the best on the Phillies, the elevated contact rate on out-of-zone pitches is concerning. There is a possibility that Bregman is on the verge of a significant downturn in performance.
Bregman, a client of Boras, is expected by Spotrac to secure a contract worth approximately 4 years and $120 million. This deal would extend through his age 34 season, averaging $30 million per year. Additionally, this contract would bring the Phillies close to the $281 million draft penalty threshold, leaving limited options for further moves.
Tanner Scott, RP
One of the most surprising aspects of the Phillies’ early postseason elimination was the complete collapse of their bullpen. This unit, which featured two All-Stars and a significant trade deadline acquisition along with a promising talent in Orion Kerkering, was utterly overwhelmed by the Mets, allowing 17 runs over 12.2 innings with 4 home runs. With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez both slated to hit free agency, it seems likely that at least one may re-sign. However, the Phillies might consider moving on from both or even attempt to trade José Alvarado, who had an inconsistent season and is set to earn $9M in 2025, the final guaranteed year of his contract.
Regardless of their strategy, acquiring Tanner Scott would significantly bolster the bullpen. With a 1.75 ERA, Scott ranked as the sixth best reliever in MLB, appearing in 72 games while recording 22 saves and 11 holds. The 30-year-old, a first-time All-Star, began the season as the closer for the Miami Marlins before being traded to the San Diego Padres for a substantial package of prospects at the trade deadline. He continued to perform admirably in San Diego, primarily functioning as a setup man for closer Robert Suarez.
A notable concern regarding Scott is his tendency to walk batters. His 12.8 BB% was the fourth highest among all relievers with a minimum of 60 appearances. Although he achieved a career-best walk rate of 7.8% in 2023, this may have been an anomaly, as it marked the first and only time in his career that his rate fell below 11%. In 2024, Scott struck out a modest 28.6% of batters, despite having elite strikeout capabilities, as demonstrated by his impressive 33.9 K% in 2023, which ranked ninth among relievers that year.
Spotrac estimates that Scott’s market value is projected to be 4 years for $65M. Over the past two seasons, the lefty has established himself as one of the premier relief pitchers in the league, yet he faces challenges.
His track record is not particularly extensive beyond that. Moreover, he lacks the save statistics that recent high-priced relievers like Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz boast. Any team that signs him would be banking on his ability to maintain his upward trajectory into his 30s and restore his strikeout rates to offset his elevated walk rate. Additionally, it is uncertain whether Scott prefers the role of a closer, as he did in Miami, or if he is open to returning to his previous position as a setup man in San Diego.
# Free Agency Focus: Top Targeting Options for the Philadelphia Phillies This Offseason
As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up for an exciting offseason, the focus turns to free agency and potential roster improvements. With aspirations of contending for a World Series title, the Phillies must strategically target key players to fill gaps and enhance their competitiveness. This article explores the top free agency targets for the Phillies, analyzing each candidate’s fit within the team’s structure and their potential impact on the field.
## Key Areas of Need
Before diving into specific player targets, it’s important to identify the areas where the Phillies need to strengthen their roster:
– **Starting Pitching**: The rotation showed inconsistency last season, making it imperative to bring in reliable arms.
– **Bullpen Help**: A solid bullpen is crucial for late-game situations, and the Phillies need depth and experience.
– **Outfield Depth**: With some uncertainty regarding injuries and performance, adding reliable outfield options is essential.
– **Infield Versatility**: The Phillies could benefit from a versatile infielder who can provide depth at multiple positions.
## Top Free Agency Targets for the Phillies
### 1. **Carlos Rodón – Starting Pitcher**
#### Overview
Carlos Rodón had a breakout season with the San Francisco Giants, showcasing elite strikeout capabilities and durability.
#### Why the Phillies Should Target Rodón
– **Strikeout Potential**: Rodón averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings last season, making him a dominant force.
– **Left-Handed Option**: He brings a left-handed presence to the rotation, complementing right-handed pitchers like Zack Wheeler.
– **Experience**: Rodón has playoff experience, which is invaluable for a team looking to make a deep postseason run.
### 2. **Andrew Benintendi – Outfielder**
#### Overview
Andrew Benintendi is a proven hitter with a knack for getting on base and has the defensive skills to play multiple outfield positions.
#### Benefits of Adding Benintendi
– **Contact Hitter**: Benintendi’s ability to hit for average and get on base would provide balance to the Phillies’ lineup.
– **Defensive Versatility**: He can play both left and center field, adding flexibility to the outfield.
– **Team Chemistry**: Benintendi’s positive attitude and work ethic would blend well with the existing clubhouse culture.
### 3. **David Robertson – Relief Pitcher**
#### Overview
David Robertson has been a reliable reliever throughout his career, providing stability and experience in high-leverage situations.
#### Practical Tips for Acquiring Robertson
– **Short-Term Deal**: Given his age and injury history, a shorter contract could be appealing for both parties.
– **Playoff Experience**: Robertson has experience in the postseason, making him a valuable asset for late-game situations.
– **Mentorship**: His veteran presence could help younger pitchers in the bullpen develop their skills.
### 4. **Trevor Story - Infielder**
#### Overview
Trevor Story, known for his power and speed, could provide the Phillies with a dynamic option at shortstop or second base.
#### Why Story Fits the Phillies
– **Offensive Upside**: Story has a career slugging percentage over .500, providing much-needed power to the lineup.
– **Defensive Skills**: He has consistently performed well defensively and could shore up the infield.
– **Potential for a Bounce-Back Year**: After an injury-plagued season, Story could be a buy-low candidate with high upside.
## Prospective Contracts
To give fans an idea of the financial landscape, here’s a table outlining estimated contract values for the highlighted free agents:
| Player | Pos | Estimated Annual Salary | Contract Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodón | SP | $25 million | 5 years |
| Andrew Benintendi | OF | $18 million | 4 years |
| David Robertson | RP | $8 million | 2 years |
| Trevor Story | INF | $20 million | 4 years |
## Potential Trade Targets
In addition to free agency, the Phillies could explore trade options to bolster their lineup. Here are a few players who might be on the trading block:
### 1. **Brian Reynolds – Outfielder (Pittsburgh Pirates)**
– **Why Target Reynolds?**
– Reynolds is one of the most talented young outfielders in baseball, with a strong bat and solid defensive skills.
– He would provide an immediate upgrade and long-term solution in the outfield.
### 2. **Gleyber Torres - Infielder (New York Yankees)**
- **Why Target Torres?**
- Torres has shown flashes of brilliance and could benefit from a change of scenery.
– His ability to play multiple infield positions would add depth and flexibility.
### 3. **Luis Castillo - Starting Pitcher (Cincinnati Reds)**
– **Why Target Castillo?**
– Castillo is a front-of-the-rotation starter with electric stuff, and he would significantly improve the Phillies’ pitching depth.
– His youth and team-friendly contract make him an attractive target.
## Case Studies: Successful Offseason Acquisitions
### 1. **2021 San Francisco Giants**
– The Giants signed a mix of experienced players like Kevin Gausman and Alex Wood, who helped elevate the team’s performance and led them to an unexpected 107-win season.
### 2. **2020 Chicago White Sox**
– The White Sox added key players like Yasmani Grandal and Dallas Keuchel, which solidified their roster and led them back to the playoffs.
### 3. **2022 Philadelphia Phillies**
– The Phillies made significant moves by acquiring Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, which helped improve their offense and ultimately secure a playoff berth.
## First-Hand Experiences
When looking at the impact of free agency, it’s essential to consider the human element. Players often find homes in new cities and develop relationships with teammates. For instance:
– **Kyle Schwarber’s Impact**: After joining the Phillies, Schwarber embraced the Philadelphia fanbase, becoming a leader in the clubhouse and a fan favorite with his powerful hitting.
– **Max Scherzer**: Transitioning to the New York Mets, Scherzer quickly became a key figure, demonstrating how impactful a free agent can be when they fit into a team’s culture and needs.
## Conclusion
The Philadelphia Phillies have a unique opportunity this offseason to make impactful moves that could set the foundation for a championship-contending team. By targeting top free agents like Carlos Rodón, Andrew Benintendi, David Robertson, and Trevor Story, alongside potential trade targets like Brian Reynolds and Gleyber Torres, the Phillies can enhance their roster depth and overall performance. As fans eagerly await the offseason moves, the future looks bright for the Philadelphia Phillies.
