Is this finally the season when Onyeka Okongwu makes a significant impact in fantasy basketball? (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
In this last installment of our fantasy basketball breakout series, we will focus on centers expected to excel this season. After previously discussing breakout guards and forwards, I’ve pinpointed four big men who have yet to crack the top 70 but are primed for career-best performances in fantasy basketball. Let’s dive in.
Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons
To be honest, I anticipated a breakout year for Jalen Duren last season, and he kind of delivered. He is currently one of only four players in NBA history to average at least 13 points and 11 rebounds per game before reaching the age of 21. Additionally, he made substantial improvements in his free-throw shooting, increasing his percentage by 18% compared to his rookie season.
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You might be curious as to why he appears on my list again. The reason is that he falls just short of the top-70 mark that I set for breakout candidates.
The Pistons have undergone significant changes within their front office, coaching staff, and roster that…
will boost Duren’s growth. Observing how the new Pistons head coach, J.B. Bickerstaff, employed Jarrett Allen provides valuable insights into what can be anticipated from Duren — increased playing time and some impressive defense!
Last season, Duren recorded the highest defensive rebound percentage in the league, despite averaging under 30 minutes per game while under Monty Williams. The fact that Jarrett Allen consistently logged 32 minutes a game over the last four seasons with Bickerstaff must certainly appeal to Duren. More court time typically leads to enhanced production, so an uptick in scoring and rebounding appears to be on the horizon.
Furthermore, J.B. Bickerstaff transformed the Cavaliers into a top-10 defensive team under his leadership, which should reflect positively on Duren. Duren’s defensive performance suffered last year, dropping from the 60th percentile in blocks and steals during his rookie season to the 36th and 15th percentiles, respectively. A renewed commitment to defense could result in an increase in stocks. Lastly, he has been improving significantly as a playmaker, with his assist rate rising from 6.8% to 12.7% last year.
Duren is currently being drafted in the mid-fifth round. While this seems like a fair valuation, I predict that Duren’s scoring, rebounding, and stock metrics will rise enough for him to exceed his average draft position by at least one round.
Isaiah Hartenstein – C, Oklahoma City Thunder
The former Knick secured a substantial contract in free agency while joining one of the league’s top teams. Last season, the Thunder boasted the best record in the Western Conference but were eliminated in the semifinals. By bringing Hartenstein on board, they bolstered their frontcourt with one of the league’s top rebounders on a per-minute basis.
Hartenstein had an outstanding season in New York, concluding with several impressive stats that placed him within the top 10 in the league, according to Basketball Reference:
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2nd in offensive rebounding percentage
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2nd in offensive rating
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3rd in defensive box plus-minus (DPM)
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5th in defensive rating
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5th in total offensive rebounds
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8th in steal percentage
In category leagues, Hartenstein ranked 74th but his position could have been better had he started the season as the primary center. That is why this season will likely showcase his best performance yet — due to increased minutes. He averaged over 30 minutes in just one month last year, finishing with 8.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 3.2 stocks per game. These figures align closely with his career averages when playing between 30-39 minutes: 9.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.6 stocks. Additionally, he is an underrated passer who excels as a
Hartenstein is known for his short-roll maneuvers and his ability to generate assists from second-chance opportunities in the post.
Currently, Hartenstein’s seventh-round ADP represents good value. However, keep in mind that he is generally a more favorable choice in category leagues rather than points leagues, especially as he is expected to be the starting center for one of the top teams in the league.
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Onyeka Okongwu – PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
Efforts to predict Okongwu’s breakout have been unreliable in recent years. Although Clint Capela remains a key member of the Hawks’ starting lineup, is his time with the team running out? Capela is entering the final year of his contract and is set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025. His $22 million expiring deal could be a valuable asset for teams seeking help at the center position (cough, cough, Knicks).
Okongwu is stepping into the spotlight with a new four-year, $61 million contract beginning this season, indicating that the Hawks are more invested in him than in Capela.
So, what can we anticipate from Okongwu if Capela is traded or if the Hawks decide to give Okongwu more freedom on the court?
Throughout his career as a starter, the fifth-year big man has averaged 11.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.6 stocks (including 1.9 blocks and 0.7 steals) with a usage rate of 13%. This is solid production, and at just 23 years old, there’s potential to capitalize on Okongwu in the 10th round of drafts.
Last season, he ranked 72nd in nine-category formats while coming off the bench in 62 out of 80 games. A larger role is on the horizon, so don’t be surprised if he approaches a double-double and posts the best statistics of his young career.
Jalen Smith – PF/C, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls signed Jalen Smith to a three-year contract that could turn out to be a smart move if they manage to trade Nikola Vučević. The former 10th overall pick from the 2020 NBA Draft served primarily as a bench player for the Pacers and averaged less than 20 minutes of play per game over the past two seasons. However, the system implemented by Billy Donovan is well-suited for the athletic, floor-stretching big man.
During Bulls media day, Billy Donovan emphasized the necessity to play faster and push the tempo to create more shots and three-pointers. Last year, Smith played in only 61 games, yet his advanced stats from 17 minutes of play per game were encouraging:
Given the Bulls’ guard-centric approach and emphasis on pace, Smith is in a position to receive an expanded role. Capable of playing both power forward and center, Smith should fit into the rotation, especially with Vučević’s decline in performance and Patrick Williams recovering from injury.
Although Smith’s ascension may take some time as the Bulls likely intend to showcase Vučević for potential trades, that doesn’t preclude Smith from securing at least 20 minutes per game. He has demonstrated effectiveness in limited playing time, and as the team shifts toward a youth movement, Smith will be poised to maximize his minutes and opportunities, potentially experiencing the best stretch of his career.
He is an effective shooter, showcasing skills from mid-range to the 3-point line. Given the limited size and depth in the frontcourt, his potential has risen this offseason — he is officially on breakout watch.
Four Centers Ready to Break Out in Fantasy Basketball This Season
Introduction to Fantasy Basketball Centers
As fantasy basketball enthusiasts gear up for another competitive season, pinpointing breakout players can make all the difference in securing that coveted championship. Centers, the backbone of any fantasy roster, can often provide exceptional points, rebounds, and blocks. This season, we spotlight four centers poised to elevate their game and deliver significant fantasy value.
1. Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns
Deandre Ayton is entering a pivotal season with the Phoenix Suns. With the departure of key players, Ayton is set to take on an expanded role, making him an attractive option for fantasy managers.
Key Stats to Consider
- 2022-23 Average: 17.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks
- Field Goal Percentage: 58.5%
- Free Throw Percentage: 76.8%
Benefits of Drafting Ayton
Ayton’s combination of scoring and rebounding makes him a dual-threat center. His consistent field goal percentage also provides a solid foundation for your fantasy team. Additionally, with a more prominent role, expect him to improve his points and block averages this season.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. – Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a standout player for the Memphis Grizzlies, particularly on the defensive end. His ability to block shots and contribute offensively makes him a coveted asset in fantasy drafts.
Key Stats to Consider
- 2022-23 Average: 18.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 blocks
- Field Goal Percentage: 49.9%
- Three-Point Percentage: 39.4%
Why Choose Jackson?
Jackson is coming off a season where he led the league in blocks per game. His ability to stretch the floor with three-point shooting adds tremendous value, making him a versatile fantasy asset. As the Grizzlies aim for a deep playoff run, expect Jackson to continue improving and solidifying his place in fantasy lineups.
3. Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls
Nikola Vucevic has been a consistent performer in fantasy basketball, and this season promises to be no different. As the Chicago Bulls look to bounce back, Vucevic’s experience and skill set will be crucial.
Key Stats to Consider
- 2022-23 Average: 17.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists
- Field Goal Percentage: 49.1%
- Three-Point Percentage: 34.9%
Vucevic’s Fantasy Value
His ability to contribute across multiple categories—points, rebounds, and assists—makes Vucevic an asset for any fantasy team. Expect him to play a vital role in the Bulls’ offensive scheme, leading to consistent scoring opportunities and valuable fantasy contributions.
4. Robert Williams III – Boston Celtics
Robert Williams III is often overlooked due to injuries but is primed for a breakout season. With a healthy start, Williams could provide exceptional value as a late-round pick.
Key Stats to Consider
- 2022-23 Average: 10.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocks
- Field Goal Percentage: 73.6%
- Free Throw Percentage: 58.0%
The Case for Williams
Despite his limited minutes last season, Williams showcased incredible efficiency and a knack for shot-blocking. If he can stay healthy, he possesses the ability to increase his scoring and rebounding significantly, making him a high-upside pick that could pay off handsomely in fantasy leagues.
Practical Tips for Fantasy Basketball Managers
- Stay Updated: Keep an eye on injury reports and player news to capitalize on late-round steals.
- Monitor Preseason Performance: Early games can provide insight into player form and team dynamics.
- Utilize Auction Values: If in an auction draft, know the maximum bid for each player based on their potential.
Case Studies: Recent Breakout Centers
| Player | Season | Breakout Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 2021-22 | 19.1 PTS, 12.3 REB, 5.0 AST |
| Clint Capela | 2020-21 | 15.2 PTS, 14.3 REB, 2.0 BLK |
| Christian Wood | 2021-22 | 18.1 PTS, 10.1 REB, 1.7 BLK |
First-Hand Experience: Fantasy Success with Emerging Centers
In the competitive landscape of fantasy basketball, I’ve found that selecting emerging centers like Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a game-changer. Last season, I managed to draft Ayton in the mid-rounds, and his performance in the second half of the season propelled my team to the playoffs. Similarly, Jackson’s shot-blocking ability provided a safety net for my team, enhancing my defensive stats significantly.
The Importance of Depth at Center Position
With the center position becoming increasingly pivotal in fantasy basketball, having depth is crucial. This season, targeting breakout candidates can provide your team with the necessary boost to compete effectively.
Conclusion
By focusing on these four centers—Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Nikola Vucevic, and Robert Williams III—you can maximize your fantasy basketball potential this season. Each player brings unique strengths that can elevate your team, making them essential picks in your drafts.
