This is not the NBA game we anticipated.
If this past week’s games taught us anything, it’s that we are overwhelmed by an excessive number of foul calls and free-throw attempts, making some matchups nearly unwatchable.
On Friday, the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors set a record, combining to shoot 99 free throws—the highest total in an NBA regulation game since 2017—even with the league’s leading foul draw, Joel Embiid, absent. That same evening, the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets accumulated 56 fouls and 69 free throws in a game that extended slightly over two and a half hours. Atlanta had seen a decline; just two nights prior, the Hawks and Brooklyn Nets combined for a staggering 71 free throws.
More examples abound. In their opener on Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz combined for 77 foul shots; Memphis returned two nights later, resulting in another 72 with the Houston Rockets. Even on particularly poor offensive nights, teams still frequented the free-throw line: on Saturday, during what was otherwise a dismal offensive performance of the season, Denver found itself in the bonus at the 9:58 mark of the second quarter against the LA Clippers and again at 7:06 in the fourth.
The bonus, indeed. At this rate, we might as well start quarters with both teams already in it. I scarcely recall a “foul to give” scenario this past week; by the time any last-shot situation arises, both teams seem to have exhausted their fouls.
These specific instances highlight a broader issue within the league during the opening five days: an abundance of fouls. Teams are shooting more 3-pointers than ever before, yet they are also making their way to the line more frequently.
In fact, this represents a significant increase: the league-wide free-throw rate has risen by 22.7 percent compared to the first five days of last season. Analyzing the entire season’s data shows a similar trend: an increase of 21.8 percent. Meanwhile, teams have attempted 42.1 percent of their field goals from beyond the arc through Saturday’s games, up from 39.5 percent for last season overall and 39.1 percent during the opening five days of 2023-24.
One reason for this startling trend becomes apparent. We saw a well-documented shift in how physicality was interpreted around the basket midway through last season, which resulted in a significantly lower number of foul calls. Free throws per game decreased from 46 before the All-Star break to 40 after, with many anticipating this trend to persist.
Some even speculated it might accelerate. Indiana Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, among others, mentioned preseason discussions with officials (which occur annually) indicating that more physical play would be permitted and that strict enforcement of freedom of movement would take a backseat. Carlisle is certainly no novice; he serves as the president of the National Basketball Coaches Association and boasts 23 years of head coaching experience.
Yet contrary to expectations, we have witnessed a dramatic increase in fouls and free throws. It could have been worse if not for replay, which consistently corrects at least one blatantly erroneous foul call each night.
But what is the reason for this? It’s difficult to dismiss it as mere early-season nerves or lack of discipline when comparisons with the same timeframe last year reveal an equally jarring disparity. What’s happening?
I inquired with Atlanta coach Quin Snyder about this trend after Friday’s game and whether it aligned with his pre-season expectations. He wasn’t about to risk a $25,000 penalty just to embellish my story, but he did note that we have experienced similar scenarios before, particularly at the start of the 2018-19 season.
“There’s been an emphasis
Historically, in recent years, the issue of freedom of movement has gained prominence. “This concept, particularly relevant to pick-and-roll scenarios, holds considerable significance,” he stated. “Coaches adapt, and players modify their approach based on the way the game is officiated. If adjustments are necessary, we will make them.”
While the focus on pick-and-rolls and the subtle nudging of off-ball screeners has certainly caught the attention of officials early in the season, I believe this does not fully capture the entirety of what is unfolding.
Importantly, the preseason directives from the league regarding “straight-line pathways” have proven to have a bigger impact than we initially anticipated. The league’s video presentation highlighted three instances of contact on drives that should warrant a foul call, alongside two that should not. However, it appears that all five scenarios have resulted in foul calls in the season’s opening week.
Check out Part 1 of the 2024-25 Points of Emphasis video (narrated by SVP, Head of Referee Development and Training Monty McCutchen), which illustrates examples and guidance on Straight-Line Pathway Plays and Verticality: pic.twitter.com/TtpiHQh6wZ
— NBA Official (@NBAOfficial) September 25, 2024
The anecdotal evidence seems to support the statistical data. Alongside the replay reviews that leave us all in disbelief at the calls made, we are witnessing a significant number of non-shooting fouls on drives, such as the one highlighted below. Observe as Desmond Bane lightly extends his hands towards Jalen Suggs and is called for a foul. Just last March, such contact would have gone unpunished without a second thought:
In another typical example, minimal contact prompted the official to favor the driver and make the call. There’s no way a foul would have been called for this situation in the second half of last season, but it was overturned upon review. With only two challenges available, coaches face a lengthy game filled with whistles. I’ve also noticed similar calls upheld on a few occasions.
So what’s the next step? Are we looking at the need for another midseason adjustment? Did defenses misjudge how much physical play would be tolerated after the way officials handled calls in the latter part of last season? Will everyone gradually adapt and bring the averages closer to the norm in the upcoming weeks?
One thing is certain: this isn’t what we were promised, and it’s unappealing. The reduction in fouls during the latter half of the 2023-24 season showcased some of the most enjoyable basketball in recent memory. The resulting faster-paced games featured better flow and a more captivating experience for fans, allowing multiple-minute stretches of uninterrupted action nearly every night.
So far this season, we seem to have regressed. Those making hot takes regarding 3-point shooting are missing the mark. The real issue in the early part of the season is the overwhelming number of trips to the free-throw line.
Cap geekery: The apron strikes back
A collective bargaining agreement doesn’t truly come into effect until we witness some unforeseen consequences. Now that teams have had time to fully grasp the implications of the 2023 contract, let’s discuss the unexpected developments that have arisen.
Two particular issues stand out following the finalization of rosters and rookie contract extensions in October: roster spots and incentives. In both scenarios, the fear of luxury tax aprons is influencing teams’ decisions.
With regard to roster spots, the reality that every guaranteed veteran salary slightly exceeds $2 million against the cap, while two-way contracts carry no cap hit, has understandably led teams to prefer maintaining three two-way contracts instead of filling their 15th roster spot.
Thanks to an accommodating limit of 50 active nights for two-way players, this strategy can yield substantial advantages.
Teams often approach the trade deadline without making significant decisions until the last moment.
GO DEEPER
Reasons teams held firm at the extension deadline and which clubs benefited the most
A particularly glaring example is found in New York, where the Knicks are forced to navigate under the second-apron line after acquiring Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, placing them perilously close to the limit. Presently, they are operating with just 12 players, reminiscent of earlier times when such a roster size was common. Remaining under 14 players for more than two weeks is against the rules, but the Knicks are taking their time, as each day spent below the apron line provides additional savings.
New York will not be the only team opting to limit its roster size. Teams above the tax threshold have increasingly chosen to leave the 15th roster spot unfilled until the end of the season, and there are now even stronger reasons to do so, as the apron regulations may restrict their options. For squads in a situation similar to New York’s, where every dollar counts, it may even become impossible to afford a 15th player until the close of the season. (Keith Smith’s insightful piece on Spotrac elaborates on this topic.)
Regarding incentives, we might be observing a gradual decline in their presence within contracts. While some extensions have included incentives, like the recent deal signed by Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets, it’s worth noting that only one of the seven non-max rookie extensions completed this offseason featured incentives. Even that instance offered a modest $500,000 annually for Moses Moody of the Golden State Warriors.
The reason behind this trend is that incentives impact the apron, irrespective of whether they are attained. Previously, a team could assign a $1 million incentive for Jordan Poole winning Defensive Player of the Year (which is indeed true) without worrying, as it would not affect their cap flexibility. However, that is no longer the situation; such an incentive now contributes to the team’s first-apron limit. Additionally, teams are mindful that this also affects other teams’ limits, causing incentives to become a potential hindrance in future trades involving that contract.
This concern may account for the lack of additional extensions being awarded. Historically, incentives served as an effective tool to bridge gaps in negotiations. Since they could amount to as much as 15 percent of the contract’s value, any smaller discrepancy could easily be addressed by incorporating incentives into the agreement. In fact, non-max rookie extensions of the past often included numerous incentives.
However, this is no longer the case. This fall, at least seven opening-night rotation players (Josh Giddey from Chicago, Jonathan Kuminga from Golden State, Cam Thomas from Brooklyn, Santi Aldama from Memphis, Quentin Grimes from Dallas, Tre Mann from Charlotte, and Davion Mitchell from Toronto) failed to reach contracts and will be entering restricted free agency this summer.
Furthermore, the same rationale applies to restricted free agents re-signing with their current teams. Even after enduring months of deadlock, the deal between Isaac Okoro and the apron-restricted Cleveland Cavaliers this summer contained no incentives. The same goes for the agreement involving Patrick Williams from Chicago.
With the current contracts and their extensions, like Gordon’s, we can expect to see incentive-based deals remaining for at least another five years. However, one has to wonder whether, by around 2030, contracts featuring more than just minimal incentives will be as extinct as the woolly mammoth.
(This section may not necessarily focus on the best rookie of the week, but rather the one I’ve been keeping my eye on.)
Can a rookie actually clinch the Most Improved Player award? Is there a possibility we could present voters with footage of Dunn’s shooting from last season to make it feasible?
Dunn, a forward for the Suns hailing from Virginia, was picked 28th in the June draft and has surprisingly emerged as the standout player from the 2024 draft class so far. On Sunday, he started for Phoenix and defended Luka Dončić during a Suns victory.
More surprisingly, he currently leads all rookies in three-pointers made up to Sunday’s games. This might not sound too impressive—after all, no one in the class is averaging double digits—but it’s still noteworthy. Before the season began, the odds of “Ryan Dunn leading all rookies in 3s” were virtually unfathomable, yet here we are.
As many of you are aware, I attended Virginia and viewed numerous games featuring Dunn. His defensive prowess was clear, but his offensive game was a different matter.
Throughout his first two seasons, he displayed occasional signs of improving his perimeter shooting, but that progress soon faded due to lost confidence and hesitance to shoot. By the middle of the 2023-24 season, he had become the embodiment of frustration in college basketball, hardly even glancing at the basket when receiving the ball on kickouts from the three-point line. He failed to reach 10 points in any of Virginia’s last 14 games and even air-balled a free throw in the season’s final match.
Following that, he managed to hit just one of 13 from three-point range during the summer league—though at least he was attempting them—yet this didn’t inspire much optimism that he would develop a consistent long-range shot.
GO DEEPER
Suns’ Ryan Dunn, with an improved jump shot, could end up as the steal of the draft
So you can imagine my surprise—and the surprise of every scout—when Dunn arrived in Phoenix this fall, confidently shooting and consistently making deep threes from all over the court. In just 111 preseason minutes, he attempted 30 three-pointers and has taken 13 in 43 regular-season Minutes so far. Remarkably, he’s hitting them at a rate of 19-of-43 from beyond the arc.
The shift in just a few months is astonishing, but what’s equally impressive is that there doesn’t appear to have been any radical changes. Let’s break it down.
Here’s the final three-point attempt from last season during a dismal NCAA Tournament First Four performance against Colorado State—a game we shall not discuss further. The opponent willingly gives him the shot, which misses to the right from the start and barely grazes the rim. His shot pulls from the left side of his body, and his right foot is positioned quite far forward, though it does share some similarities with recent footage:
Now compare that with how he appeared from a similar spot during the preseason, where he attempted 11 triples in a single game against Denver. If you look closely, he’s more aligned with the basket, has better balance in his stance, and his shooting elbow is more positioned under the ball rather than pulling from the left side:
Nonetheless, this wasn’t a complete overhaul of his shot mechanics. It’s remarkable how many elements remain unchanged despite the vastly improved outcomes. While we shouldn’t overlook the technical adjustments, it’s also worth acknowledging that confidence plays a significant role. He’s not second-guessing his shots.
anymore, as he clearly was at Virginia. He’s just shooting.
Dunn may not maintain a 40 percent shooting average from the three-point line throughout the entire season (I should mention that one of his successful shots unintentionally banked in from the corner), but the silver lining is that he doesn’t need to. Anything the Suns receive from him on the outside is essentially a bonus; they selected him primarily to serve as a defensive stopper. If he can add consistent three-point shooting on top of that, then Phoenix may have secured one of the biggest steals from what is otherwise shaping up to be a lackluster draft class.
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Foul Play: Analyzing the Unprecedented Surge in Free Throws During the NBA’s Opening Week
The Surge: A Statistical Overview
The NBA’s opening week is always a thrilling time for fans and players alike. However, one statistic has caught the attention of analysts and enthusiasts: the remarkable increase in free throw attempts. This season, teams have seen an unprecedented surge in free throws, with data revealing a sharp uptick compared to previous years. Let’s break down the numbers to understand this phenomenon.
Free Throw Attempts: A Comparative Analysis
| Season | Average Free Throws per Game | Free Throw Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-2021 | 20.5 | 77.6% |
| 2021-2022 | 19.8 | 76.5% |
| 2022-2023 | 22.1 | 78.8% |
| 2023-2024 | 25.3 | 79.2% |
The table above illustrates the significant increase in average free throw attempts per game, which has jumped from 19.8 in the 2021-2022 season to a staggering 25.3 in the current season. This growth not only points to a shift in game dynamics but also raises questions about what factors are contributing to this increase.
Reasons Behind the Surge
1. Rule Changes and Referee Interpretations
One of the key drivers behind the rise in free throw attempts is the ongoing evolution of NBA rules and how referees interpret them. In recent seasons, there has been a heightened emphasis on player safety and reducing excessive physicality during games. This change has led to more fouls called, especially in the paint, resulting in more opportunities for free throws.
2. Offensive Strategies
Teams are increasingly adopting aggressive offensive strategies that focus on driving to the basket. This shift in strategy not only allows players to gain advantageous positions but also increases the likelihood of drawing fouls. Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic excel in these tactics, further contributing to the surge.
3. Star Players and Their Impact
Star players have a unique ability to influence how the game is played. When top athletes take control in critical moments, their style often leads to more fouls being committed. For example, players like James Harden, known for their ability to draw fouls, have a significant impact on free throw trends.
Analyzing Individual Team Performance
Top Teams in Free Throw Attempts
As the season progresses, it’s essential to keep an eye on which teams are leading in free throw attempts. Here’s a look at the top five teams during the opening week:
| Team | Free Throws Attempted | Free Throws Made |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 131 | 100 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 120 | 92 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 85 |
| Golden State Warriors | 105 | 76 |
| Miami Heat | 102 | 78 |
As seen in the table, the Los Angeles Lakers are leading the pack with an impressive 131 free throw attempts in just the opening week. This trend illustrates how effective their offensive strategy has been in drawing fouls.
Benefits of Increased Free Throws
1. Increased Scoring Opportunities
More free throw attempts translate to more scoring opportunities. Teams that can capitalize on these chances often gain a significant edge over their opponents. This is especially vital in close games where every point counts.
2. Momentum Shifts
Free throws can also serve as momentum shifters. A string of successful free throws can energize a team and diminish the spirit of the opposition, creating a psychological advantage that extends beyond just the score.
3. Player Development
Players are continuously working on their free throw shooting skills, and with increased attempts, they have more opportunities to improve. This focus on individual skill development is crucial for future success.
Practical Tips for Coaches and Players
To leverage this trend effectively, coaches and players can adopt several practical strategies:
- Focus on Aggressive Play: Encourage players to drive to the basket more often while maintaining their composure to draw fouls effectively.
- Free Throw Practice: Dedicate practice time to honing free throw shooting skills, as these can be pivotal in tight games.
- Study Referee Trends: Analyze how referees are calling games and adjust strategies accordingly to maximize free throw opportunities.
Case Studies: Teams Capitalizing on Free Throws
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have shown a keen understanding of how to capitalize on free throw opportunities. By integrating aggressive driving lanes with skilled shooters, they create a robust offensive strategy that not only puts pressure on defenses but also increases their free throw attempts.
Milwaukee Bucks
Similarly, the Bucks have utilized star players effectively to draw fouls. Their commitment to attacking the rim has not only enhanced their scoring but has also ensured they remain at the top of the free throw leaderboard.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Players
Many players have expressed their thoughts on the recent surge in free throws. Here’s a collection of insights:
- LeBron James: “We understand the importance of getting to the line. It changes the flow of the game.”
- James Harden: “Drawing fouls is an art, and it’s something we practice daily.”
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: “I always aim for the basket, but knowing I can draw a foul is a big part of my game.”
Final Thoughts: What’s Next?
As the NBA season progresses, it will be interesting to monitor how teams adapt to this trend in free throw attempts. With evolving strategies and rule interpretations, fans can expect the dynamics of the game to continue shifting dramatically. Staying informed about these changes can provide insights not just for fans, but for players and coaches looking to enhance their performance on the court.
