It’s worth acknowledging that New Orleans Pelicans power forward Zion Williamson managed to play a career-high 70 games in the NBA last season, a significant rise from just 29 games the previous year after he missed the entire 2021-22 season due to a foot injury. When considering potential selections for the yearly fantasy basketball ”Do Not Draft” list, Williamson has typically been an obvious choice. This is not only due to his frequent injuries that have sidelined him for numerous games but also because enthusiastic managers often prioritize the hype rather than the probable statistics.
That, ultimately, is the essence of what a “Do Not Draft” list represents.
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Would I want Williamson on my fantasy teams? It’s all about value and opportunity cost. After the fifth or sixth round, I would be more inclined to take a chance on the unexpected upside of his stats since that aligns more closely with his average performances. Last season, Williamson was typically drafted in the third round, which was far too early in many leagues.
This was premature, and although he managed to stay relatively healthy, Williamson turned out to be a poor investment in those early rounds. He ranked 69th on the Player Rater (in roto/category formats) and barely placed in the top 40 for volume-based points leagues. When it comes to points leagues, it’s essential to focus on the metrics that matter in roto formats, as we cannot solely rely on volume.
Williamson could headline this column annually, yet another young player who has shown durability in his first two NBA seasons has emerged with some disappointing statistical parallels that many may have overlooked. People seem to ignore the similarities between him and Williamson. We previously criticized Williamson for not securing enough rebounds—given his potential—and for providing minimal contributions in stocks (steals and blocks). Additionally, he posed almost no threat from beyond the arc and adversely affected fantasy managers with his free throw shooting.
Orlando Magic PF/SF Paolo Banchero, who was recognized as the league’s top rookie in 2022-23, exhibited improvement in certain areas last season, notably averaging more points and assists. However, Banchero was hardly an exceptional fantasy option. Enthusiasm surrounding him for this upcoming season has made him a popular choice in the second round of ESPN ADP. Last season, he finished 71st on the Player Rater, although he was ranked 25th in points formats, where volume can be misleading.
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This highlights a significant distinction between our standard points formats and roto leagues. I participate in both, with a solid foundation in historical roto performance. Banchero wasn’t
Last season, he was only productive in roto formats, largely benefiting from volume in points formats. Players like Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Kelly Olynyk—who remain widely available in most ESPN leagues—ranked higher than him on the Player Rater.
Generally, early fantasy selections should possess a comprehensive skill set, contributing solid points while also providing considerable rebounds, assists, blocks, and 3-pointers, alongside some additional contributions. Power forwards and point guards are excellent foundational pieces for roster construction. Statistically speaking, Banchero doesn’t genuinely fit the mold of a power forward.
Last season, Banchero did not feature among the top 30 traditional scorers, and his average of 6.9 rebounds per game raises concerns. We definitely need more than that. Additionally, he hasn’t shown much in the way of defensive stats (he recorded only 86 blocks over two years, which is fewer than Derrick White of the Celtics managed in a single season last year!) and his shooting efficiency is lacking across the board. In fact, his shooting percentages are disappointing (45% FG, 72% FT).
At least Williamson is aware that he is not a reliable 3-point shooter, so he limits his attempts. Banchero, on the other hand, made only 33% of his 3-point tries while attempting 4.4 per game. Moreover, he finished ninth in the league for turnovers (Williamson ranked 14th). Perhaps Year 3 will provide a turnaround for Banchero, but there’s little evidence suggesting significant statistical improvement. As is the case with Williamson and others in fantasy basketball, focus on the statistics rather than the hype.
Annual names on the “Do Not Draft” list
LeBron James turns 40 years old in December. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
LeBron James, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 11)
James continues to be an extraordinary player, defying the effects of aging, but he will turn 40 this season. He participated in 71 games last season, his highest total since the 2017-18 season, and we commend him for this achievement, especially since the NBA mandates it for postseason accolades. Nevertheless, we must stay grounded. The statistics are impressive, with James finishing 13th on the Player Rater and seventh in points formats, but at 40, one must question endurance. Although he surprised us last season, selecting him at 11th leaves no margin for value, and we cannot take for granted that he will again play 71 games.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP: 16)
Throughout his five years in the NBA, Morant has never participated in more than 67 games. Last year, he missed the first 25 games due to a suspension related to off-court issues (a situation that could easily arise again), and after a promising start, a shoulder injury prematurely ended his season. While his numbers generally reflect a solid combination of scoring and assists, along with decent shooting (though he could improve his 3-point shooting), his reliability is questionable, and we expect greater consistency from our second-round selections.
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks (ADP: 27)
Let’s get straight to the point. He’s an exceptional player, contributing positively on the court; however, since 2018-19, he has not exceeded 60 games in a season. His reluctance to approach 70 games makes him a risky pick.
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF, LA Clippers (ADP: 35)
Last season, he played 68 games, his highest total since 2016-17, but the effort seemed to take its toll, as he struggled by April and missed a significant portion of the Clippers’ first-round series due to a knee injury he dealt with over the summer. Older athletes typically do not become more durable, and the same concerns regarding Leonard persist as they did the previous season.
Klay Thompson, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (ADP: 90)
Critiquing a player selected in the ninth or tenth round is more challenging because the associated risk is significantly lower. If he underperforms, it’s easier to part ways with him by Thanksgiving. But what justifies drafting him at this point? Now 34, Thompson enters a new team filled with guards who handle the bulk of the responsibilities. Historically, he hasn’t contributed much to the Warriors, or to our squads, outside of scoring, 3-pointers, and free-throw shooting. Unfortunately, his situation in Dallas is unlikely to improve, and he may struggle to adapt.
average even 16 PPG.
Newcomers to the Do Not Draft List
LaMelo Ball has participated in only 58 games over the last two seasons. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets (ADP: 35)
While it might seem excessive to focus solely on his games missed, it truly is significant. Ball is an exceptional talent, just 23 years old. However, due to recurring ankle injuries, he has been limited to just 58 games over the last two seasons combined. Until he demonstrates a level of durability, the situation resembles that of Mike Trout, where a player is drafted largely for their name—who doesn’t love LaMelo Ball? Fantasy managers seeking assists to replace lengthy absences of players like Mike Conley and Tre Jones should consider opting for safer point guard alternatives in the early rounds.
Mikal Bridges, SF/SG, New York Knicks (ADP: 46)
This selection is disappointing because Bridges is a fantastic player in many ways—durable, defensive-minded, and team-oriented. Yet, therein lies his issue this season. The Knicks don’t require his scoring, especially with PG Jalen Brunson, a presumably healthy PF Julius Randle, and others on the roster. To be honest, Bridges has been a statistical letdown for fantasy purposes throughout most of his career, rarely making an impact in rebounds and assists. Many view him as primarily a steals option, but his average of just under one steal per game isn’t substantial enough. Don’t expect him to approach a top-50 fantasy performance this year.
Kristaps Porzingis, C/PF, Boston Celtics (ADP: 50)
He won a championship, but you may not have noticed since he only appeared in seven playoff games and wasn’t a significant contributor. Porzingis usually provides predictably reliable statistics (20 PPG, 8 RPG, relevant blocks, 3-pointers, and shooting), yet he has only exceeded 60 games played once in the last seven seasons. This year, he is unlikely to reach that mark as he recovers from offseason foot surgery. Expect a return around January, but even then, Porzingis will be managed with caution. When a franchise suggests a player might debut just as the new year begins, it’s wise to remain skeptical.
Khris Middleton, SF, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 88)
Admittedly, it’s rare for a ninth-round pick to appear on this list since the timing is late enough to warrant taking a chance. Middleton, once underrated with averages of 20 PPG, decent rebounding, and steals, is now 33 years old. He has played only 88 games over the past two seasons and underwent surgical procedures on both ankles this offseason. Unfortunately, there are better risk-reward options within the top 100.
Fantasy Basketball’s Do Not Draft List: Cautionary Tales of High-Risk Players for 2024
Understanding the Do Not Draft List
The Do Not Draft List is an essential tool for fantasy basketball managers looking to avoid high-risk players during their drafts. As the 2024 NBA season approaches, it’s crucial to analyze player performance, injury history, and overall team dynamics to make informed decisions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Injury History: Players with a history of significant injuries can derail your fantasy season.
- Performance Decline: Athletes who have shown signs of regression may not be worth the risk.
- Team Changes: Trades and signings can impact a player’s role and performance.
- Off-Court Issues: Personal problems can affect a player’s focus and availability.
2024 Do Not Draft Players
Here’s a list of players to avoid in your upcoming draft, along with reasons why they may be considered high-risk:
| Player | Position | Team | Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | C/PF | Los Angeles Lakers | Injury Prone |
| Klay Thompson | SG | Golden State Warriors | Performance Decline |
| John Wall | PG | Los Angeles Clippers | Off-Court Issues |
| Ben Simmons | PG | Brooklyn Nets | Confidence Issues |
| Zion Williamson | PF | New Orleans Pelicans | Injury Prone |
| Russell Westbrook | PG | Los Angeles Clippers | Performance Decline |
1. Anthony Davis
Despite his immense talent, Anthony Davis has struggled with injuries throughout his career. In 2023, he played only 56 games. With the Lakers’ aging roster and reliance on him for success, drafting Davis could lead to frustration as he’s prone to missing significant time.
2. Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson has shown signs of decline post-injury, averaging fewer points and shooting below his career averages. As the Warriors transition, his role may diminish, making him a risky pick for fantasy managers.
3. John Wall
Once a star point guard, John Wall now faces off-court challenges that have affected his game. With limited minutes and inconsistent play last season, he may not return to form, making him a risky investment in drafts.
4. Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons is in a precarious situation with the Brooklyn Nets. His lack of shooting ability and ongoing confidence issues mean he could continue to underperform. His unpredictable role makes him a player to avoid in your draft.
5. Zion Williamson
Another injury-prone player, Zion Williamson has missed significant time during his career. With the Pelicans looking to build around other young talents, his value may not meet expectations, making him a high-risk choice for 2024.
6. Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook has been a fantasy staple in previous seasons, but his recent performance decline has raised concerns. As he joins a new team, his role and productivity are uncertain, adding to the risk of drafting him.
Benefits of Avoiding High-Risk Players
Steering clear of high-risk players not only improves your chances of a successful season but also allows you to focus on more reliable options. Here are some benefits:
- Consistent Points: Players with stable performance contribute more reliably to your fantasy points.
- Better Team Dynamics: Building a team with healthy, dependable players enhances your overall strategy.
- Minimized Stress: Avoiding high-risk players can reduce the anxiety associated with injuries and poor performance.
Practical Tips for Your Draft
Here are some actionable tips to optimize your fantasy basketball draft strategy:
- Research Player Stats: Analyze past performances, injuries, and news updates leading up to the draft.
- Monitor Preseason Games: Watch for player fitness and team roles during the preseason.
- Consult Expert Rankings: Use expert opinions and rankings to gauge player values and risks.
- Draft Depth: Build a deep bench to cover potential injuries and underperforming players.
Case Studies: Lessons from Previous Seasons
Examining players from past seasons can provide valuable insights into why certain athletes should be avoided:
| Player | Year Drafted | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 2021 | Injured, limited games |
| Chris Paul | 2022 | Declined performance |
| Victor Oladipo | 2021 | Injured, underperformed |
| Kevin Love | 2020 | Injured, inconsistent |
Each of these players, once considered top-tier, faced challenges that made them unreliable options for fantasy managers. Their experiences serve as a reminder to be cautious and prioritize consistency and health in your draft strategy.
First-Hand Experience: Avoiding the Pitfalls
As a fantasy basketball manager for over a decade, I’ve learned firsthand the importance of evaluating risk. In one of my earlier seasons, I drafted a highly touted player who ended up sidelined for most of the year. The frustration of watching my team struggle because of one bad decision taught me to prioritize health and stability over potential.
This year, I’ll be keeping an eye on the players mentioned in the Do Not Draft List, focusing on drafting athletes with proven durability and consistency instead. By doing this, I aim to build a strong foundation that can lead to a successful fantasy basketball season.
