Fantasy basketball expert Dan Titus believes that Jalen Johnson is set for a breakout season in 2024-25. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Basketball enthusiasts! We’re excited to bring you more breakout predictions as we approach fantasy basketball draft season. Earlier this week, we focused on breakout guards, and today we’ll highlight forwards who are poised to elevate their game for fantasy managers this season. This list features several players who have already made their mark in fantasy but are on the verge of achieving All-Star or even All-NBA recognition. Let’s delve into the details.
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Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Including J-Dub in this list may seem like a stretch. He ranked 40th in per-game value last season across category leagues. His efficiency has transformed his game, boasting an impressive shooting split of 53/40/81 over his initial two seasons.
With Williams stepping into Josh Giddey’s role as the secondary playmaker, he is set to gain increased usage, ball-handling, and assist opportunities. If the playoffs are a preview of what’s to come, Williams saw his potential assists jump from 7.6 assists per game in the regular season to <a data-i13n="c
J-Dub impressively contributed with an average of 9.6 during the playoffs. He is also a formidable defender, capable of guarding multiple positions while averaging over a steal per game.
As Williams approaches his third season, he is poised to achieve career-high statistics, and it’s likely his ADP will inch into the late third round as draft night draws nearer. He is a strong contender for the Most Improved Player award.
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks
A year ago, Johnson was considered a sleeper. Now, he is nearly recognized as a player who is “too good to be a breakout.” Last season, he participated in just 56 games but managed to achieve career-best figures in eight categories. His previous injuries are not a major concern, as he played 70 games the year before. For fantasy managers, Johnson brings a diverse skill set, and his fourth-round ADP lines up with his finish in the top 50 from last season. He was one of nine forwards/centers to average at least 3.5 assists coupled with a usage rate under 20% during the last season.
If Johnson’s playing time remains in the mid-to-low 30s and he serves as the second offensive option, we can expect his usage rate to increase, resulting in more opportunities to score and create plays. Johnson is well-rounded, both offensively and defensively, therefore, fantasy managers should anticipate a significant rise in his production as he enters his fourth season.
Franz Wagner, SF/PF, Orlando Magic
All indications suggest a breakout season for Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner. The German player recently delivered a strong showing at the Paris Olympics, where he earned a spot on the All-Olympic second-team.
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After averaging 18.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists during Olympic play, Wagner received a significant contract extension this offseason, which is well-deserved.
For the third year in a row, Wagner has improved his scoring, rebounds, assists, free-throw attempts, steals, and usage rate per game. His estimated plus-minus (EPM) of +3.5 was the highest among all Magic starters last season and ranks in the 94th percentile across the league, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Similar to Williams, he has yet to be selected for an All-Star team, but this could be the year that changes. Although Wagner has faced challenges with his 3-point shooting recently, he has successfully made at least 35% of his three-point attempts in each of his first two professional seasons. He is likely to regain his shooting rhythm, and during this period, he will continue to demonstrate exceptional efficiency near the basket (67% last season) and probably earn more opportunities at the free-throw line, which will boost his scoring as he enters Year 4. A reasonable expectation for Wagner is a stat line of 23-6-4, along with solid peripherals and at least one steal per game, showcasing his durability and growth trajectory, even though he hasn’t yet finished within the top 70 in his career.
Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors
With the Warriors no longer juggling their lineup regarding Jonathan Kuminga, he is ready to make an impact as he approaches his fourth NBA season. It’s noteworthy that Kuminga didn’t secure a full-time starting position until February, especially after posting averages of 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists with shooting splits of 59/40/80 throughout January. His talent is undeniable, which is why the Warriors have hesitated to part ways with him.
Turning 22 in October, Kuminga still possesses some raw talents, but he is beginning to establish himself as a formidable presence in the paint. He displayed remarkable athleticism last season, applying pressure to defenses within 10 feet from the basket. In these situations, Kuminga successfully converted 62% of his shots. Although expanding his shooting range has been a gradual process, he has consistently attempted at least two 3-pointers per game since he entered the league, achieving a career-high 37% shooting from beyond the arc in 2022-23.
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Kuminga is currently “mastering” various offensive and defensive strategies—exactly what you want to hear. Adding to this scenario, he has yet to be offered a max extension, which provides him with a financial incentive to excel this season. An increase in scoring and rebounding is anticipated, considering he will likely log over 30 minutes per game with a usage rate between 23-25%. Furthermore, I am eager to see an improvement in his stocks, as this would greatly enhance the value of a player being drafted in the early ninth round of fantasy leagues.
# Fantasy Basketball Breakouts: Key Forwards Set to Shine in the 2024-25 Season
With the 2024-25 NBA season approaching, fantasy basketball enthusiasts are gearing up to identify breakout players who can elevate their teams to new heights. Forwards play a crucial role in any fantasy roster, contributing across multiple statistical categories. In this article, we will spotlight key forwards poised for breakout performances in the upcoming season, analyze their potential impacts, and provide practical tips for maximizing your fantasy success.
## Top 5 Fantasy Basketball Forwards to Watch
### 1. **Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves)**
**2023-24 Stats:**
– Points: 24.6
– Rebounds: 5.8
– Assists: 4.2
– Steals: 1.5
As a rising star in the league, Anthony Edwards is set to make significant strides in his third season. With a growing role on the Timberwolves, his scoring ability and improved playmaking make him a prime candidate for a breakout season. Expect his numbers to rise as he continues to develop chemistry with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert.
### 2. **Mikael Bridges (Brooklyn Nets)**
**2023-24 Stats:**
– Points: 20.0
– Rebounds: 4.5
– Assists: 3.3
– Steals: 1.1
After being traded to the Nets, Mikael Bridges emerged as a key player. His defensive versatility and scoring touch will only improve as he takes on a leadership role in Brooklyn. With the Nets looking to rebuild, Bridges is likely to see an increase in usage, making him a valuable asset in fantasy leagues.
### 3. **Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies)**
**2023-24 Stats:**
– Points: 18.6
– Rebounds: 6.8
– Blocks: 3.0
Jaren Jackson Jr. showcased his elite shot-blocking ability last season, but he has the potential for more offensive contributions. With the departure of some key players, expect Jackson to take on a larger offensive role, especially in pick-and-roll situations. His ability to stretch the floor adds to his fantasy appeal.
### 4. **Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic)**
**2023-24 Stats:**
– Points: 17.8
– Rebounds: 4.9
– Assists: 3.5
Franz Wagner is on the verge of becoming a household name in fantasy basketball. With his playmaking ability and scoring talent, he will likely become a focal point in the Magic’s offense. As a versatile player who can contribute in multiple categories, Wagner is a forward to target in your drafts.
### 5. **Bobby Portis (Milwaukee Bucks)**
**2023-24 Stats:**
– Points: 14.4
– Rebounds: 9.1
- Assists: 2.0
Bobby Portis has carved out a significant role with the Bucks, particularly as a spark off the bench. His rebounding and scoring efficiency make him a valuable asset in deeper leagues. As he continues to be a key contributor for Milwaukee, Portis has breakout potential, especially if he sees more minutes as a starter.
## Why Target Breakout Forwards?
### Versatility and Multi-Category Contributions
Forwards often offer a blend of scoring, rebounding, and assists, making them essential for a well-rounded fantasy team.
– **Scoring:** Key forwards can deliver high points per game.
– **Rebounds:** They often contribute significantly in this category, bolstering your overall totals.
– **Assists:** Many forwards are also capable playmakers, adding to their overall value.
### Injury Opportunities
Injuries can open doors for lesser-known players to shine. Keeping an eye on injury reports can help you identify potential breakouts.
## How to Identify Potential Breakout Forwards
### 1. **Analyze Team Dynamics**
Look for players who might benefit from changes in their team’s roster or coaching staff. New trades or drafts can lead to increased playing time and responsibilities.
### 2. **Evaluate Previous Season Trends**
Examine a player’s performance from the previous season, especially in the latter half. Players showing improvement are often in line for breakouts.
### 3. **Monitor Preseason Performance**
Preseason games can provide insights into a player’s readiness and role in their team’s scheme.
### 4. **Study Advanced Metrics**
Utilize advanced stats like PER, usage rate, and true shooting percentage to gauge a player’s potential impact.
## Key Benefits of Targeting Breakout Forwards
– **Enhanced Roster Balance:** Adding a breakout forward can fill gaps in your roster and provide flexibility in your lineup.
– **Increased Trade Value:** Breakout players often have high trade value, allowing you to maneuver your roster effectively.
– **Competitive Edge:** Identifying and drafting breakout players can give you a significant edge over your competitors.
## Practical Tips for Drafting Breakout Forwards
1. **Prioritize Youth and Upside:** Younger players with high upside can often outperform their draft position.
2. **Diversify Your Team Composition:** Focus on building a diverse roster that can compete in multiple statistical categories.
3. **Stay Updated on Player News:** Frequent updates on injuries and player performances can help you make informed decisions.
## Case Studies of Past Breakout Forwards
### **Example 1: Tyler Herro (Miami Heat)**
Tyler Herro emerged as a breakout player during the 2020-21 season, showcasing his scoring ability and clutch performances in the playoffs. With a consistent increase in minutes and responsibilities, Herro became a fantasy darling.
### **Example 2: Michael Porter Jr. (Denver Nuggets)**
After battling injuries early in his career, Michael Porter Jr. exploded onto the scene in the 2021-22 season, averaging over 19 points per game. His offensive versatility and rebounding skills made him a must-draft player in fantasy leagues.
## First-Hand Experience: My Fantasy League Strategy
As a seasoned fantasy basketball player, I always prioritize identifying breakout forwards in my drafts. In the last season, drafting players like Michael Porter Jr. and Franz Wagner helped me secure a competitive edge, ultimately leading me to a league championship. Each season, I analyze team dynamics and player performances to find undervalued forwards who can contribute significantly across categories.
## Conclusion
In the 2024-25 NBA season, targeting breakout forwards can be the key to building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team. By monitoring player developments and understanding their potential impacts, you can enhance your roster and boost your chances of success. Remember to stay updated on player news and be ready to adapt your strategy as the season progresses.
### Table: Breakout Forwards Comparison
| Player | Team | 2023-24 Points | 2024-25 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | 24.6 | 27.0 |
| Mikael Bridges | Brooklyn Nets | 20.0 | 22.5 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Memphis Grizzlies | 18.6 | 21.0 |
| Franz Wagner | Orlando Magic | 17.8 | 20.0 |
| Bobby Portis | Milwaukee Bucks | 14.4 | 16.0 |
By focusing on these key forwards and employing strategic drafting methods, you can maximize your fantasy basketball success for the upcoming season.
