For the Minnesota Twins, Monday night marked a collapse within a collapse—what one might call the inception of their downfall. Minnesota squandered a three-run lead to the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field (CLE 4, MIN 3), suffering their 18th loss in 27 games. Currently, the Twins occupy the third AL wild-card spot, but their lead has diminished to just 1 1/2 games, the smallest margin since July 23.
“Our margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller,” stated Twins ace Pablo López, who allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings in Monday’s defeat (via MLB.com). “We’re at a point where we have to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, and one at-bat at a time. Today’s loss is particularly tough to accept.”
The rising Detroit Tigers have been impressive lately—witness their 23-10 record over the past 33 games, which includes Monday’s four-run comeback win (DET 7, KC 6). They’re now just two games behind the Twins in the loss column, though Minnesota retains the tiebreaker, essentially giving them a three-game cushion. The Seattle Mariners are two games behind as well, but once again, the Twins hold the tiebreaker. It seems unlikely that they will catch whichever team fails to win the AL East for the top wild-card position. The focus for the Twins must now be on fending off both the Tigers and Mariners.
According to FanGraphs, Minnesota’s odds of making the postseason stand at a robust 76.4%. However, they were at 95.4% as recently as September 5, reminding us that this is a time when fortunes can change rapidly. The Twins have utilized much of their buffer and are essentially in postseason-mode now. The next two weeks will be critical in determining their season’s outcome.
So, what issues are plaguing the Twins? In truth, quite a few, but let’s delve into the specific challenges that have forced Minnesota to closely monitor the wild-card standings.
The bullpen struggles to maintain leads
In their last 18 losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later on five occasions, and on two other instances, the game was tied during that stretch. This includes Monday night, when Griffin Jax allowed the decisive two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning—a crushing moment for the Twins:
“It’s pretty heartbreaking,” Jax expressed regarding the loss on Monday (via MLB.com).
The Twins enjoyed a strong start to the season with a 70-53 record in the first 123 games, during which their bullpen posted a 3.84 ERA (12th in the league) and ranked tenth in win probability added (plus-3.41). However, in the 27 games since, the bullpen’s ERA has ballooned to 5.47 (28th in the league) while it stands last with a minus-2.75 in win probability added. The disparity is stark:
30. Minnesota Twins: minus-2.75
bullpen win probability since Aug. 18
29. Pittsburgh Pirates: minus-1.28
28. Toronto Blue Jays: minus-1.16
Minnesota’s bullpen has clearly been the worst in baseball during this troubling 27-game stretch. In the late stages of a postseason race, relinquishing late-inning leads is detrimental. Not only do these losses sting in the standings, but they also take a toll mentally. While players are trained to quickly move on, it’s challenging to forget so many blown leads in such a brief time frame; it’s simply rough.
On Monday, the Twins played their 17th game in 18 days, and Jax indicated they’re feeling the fatigue — “We’re kind of running on fumes as a staff,” he remarked (via The Athletic). All I can say to that is they need to find a second wind, and quickly. It’s already mid-September. Every pitching staff is operating on empty. Cleveland’s relievers have made 554 appearances—28 more than anyone else—but their bullpen still managed to pitch 6 1/3 scoreless innings on Monday. Minnesota’s relief corps must perform better.
The rotation behind López has struggled
The Twins began the season with concerns about their rotation depth after Sonny Gray (and Kenta Maeda) departed as free agents, and they failed to adequately replace him. However, Simeon Woods Richardson had risen to the occasion earlier this season, especially after long-term injuries sidelined Chris Paddack and Joe Ryan. He recorded a 3.27 ERA in his first 17 starts.
Recently, though, Woods Richardson has faced significant challenges, as has the entire rotation. Over his last nine starts, his ERA has ballooned to 5.85, and in six of those outings, he did not make it through five innings. This streak includes his last four starts, which exacerbates the issue of a fatigued bullpen. The overall performance of the rotation has been lacking lately:
The current situation involves more baserunners, fewer innings, and a higher frequency of blowouts. Recently, López has been performing exceptionally well. Over the team’s challenging 27-game span, he has maintained a 1.11 ERA, permitting no earned runs in four out of six starts. Meanwhile, the rest of the rotation has recorded a 6.07 ERA and averages just 4.38 innings per start during this timeframe. At this point, the performance levels delineate between an ace (López) and a collection of No. 6-7 starters.
On Monday, Minnesota picked up left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. His acquisition provides the Twins with additional depth for pitching multiple innings. Irvin has made 16 starts and nine relief appearances for the Orioles, logging a 4.86 ERA over 107 1/3 innings. Given the current strain on the bullpen and the instability within the rotation, he represents a gamble worth taking. This reflects the current state of pitching for the Twins.
“We were considering how we could extend what we already have,” stated Twins POBO Derek Falvey regarding the decision to claim Irvin (via the Minnesota Star Tribune). “He could serve as a prototypical swingman, capable of contributing from the bullpen. Currently, we also lack a left-handed starter in our lineup. He simply adds another option that we believe can be beneficial.”
Too many hitters are underperforming
Monday marked the sixth occasion in their last 10 games, and the 12th in the past 27 games, where the Twins failed to exceed three runs. As a team, their batting stats stand at .236/.296/.381 during this 27-game stretch, a performance similar to Kyle Farmer’s this year (.225/.302/.377). While Farmer has been impressive lately, boasting a .955 OPS in the second half, a lineup primarily comprised of players like Kyle Farmer can only achieve so much.
“If we can perform offensively as we should, we will win, but we did not,” remarked Twins manager Rocco Baldelli after the loss on Monday (via MLB.com). During this game, Minnesota had multiple opportunities, leaving runners on base four times within the first six innings. “We need to improve and put together a full nine innings.”
Recently, Byron Buxton (hip) and Carlos Correa (foot) made their returns after extended absences, while Max Kepler (knee) is anticipated to come back soon. However, their absence over the past few weeks has negatively impacted the team. Several other key players have also faced significant struggles, even extending before this 27-game downturn.
Fans have been eager to witness the potential of a healthy Royce Lewis with steady playing time. Unfortunately, the results have been underwhelming. I doubt Lewis is a true talent with a 91 OPS+; he possesses the capability to excel and become one of the top players in the league over time. Nevertheless, he has been a liability for the offense in recent weeks. The same can be said for Castro, Jeffers, and Miranda. This group accounts for nearly half of the lineup.
Interestingly, despite this 27-game slump, the Twins have performed exceptionally well in clutch situations. They are hitting .274/.333/.443 with runners on base, .283/.338/.492 when runners are in scoring position, and .311/.346/.527 in high-leverage moments. The Twins have been executing the key actions desired from a team at the plate, even while suffering 18 losses in their last 27 games.
A contributing factor to the problem is Minnesota’s .272 on-base percentage with the bases empty during these 27 games, ranking as the fourth worst in the league, so
They are not initiating many rallies. Additionally, timing and sequencing play crucial roles. The Twins have recorded 25 home runs over their last 27 games, with 14 of those being solo shots. A single followed by a homer is more advantageous than a homer followed by a single, right?
Recently, Buxton and Correa returned, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats, including two doubles and a home run this month. Their full-time presence in the lineup, along with improved performances from players like Castro and Lewis, who need to align more closely with their expectations instead of their second-half statistics, would significantly enhance the lineup. Increased offense translates to greater leeway for a struggling pitching staff.
the Twins require improved performance from their offense, starting pitchers, and bullpen. It’s that straightforward. The past few weeks have been challenging—*really* challenging—yet the Twins still hold a postseason position and are in control of their own fate. At this stage of the season, it falls on the players to elevate their performance. The time for trades and promoting prospects has passed.
“We have to rediscover our identity as a team,” Baldelli stated recently (via MLB.com). ”Over the last month, we’ve been assessing who we are and how we will approach this.”
Fall from Grace: Minnesota Twins’ Late Season Struggles Threaten Playoff Hopes
Overview of the Minnesota Twins’ Season
The Minnesota Twins started the 2023 season with high expectations, fueled by a strong roster and promising performances in the first half. However, as the summer turned to fall, a series of late-season struggles began to threaten their playoff aspirations. This article delves into the key factors behind the Twins’ decline, highlights their recent performances, and offers insights into what needs to change for a potential turnaround.
Current Standings and Playoff Picture
As of late September 2023, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a precarious position in the American League Central standings. Here’s a quick overview:
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Behind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 85 | 67 | – |
| Minnesota Twins | 80 | 72 | 5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 78 | 75 | 7.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 70 | 82 | 15 |
| Kansas City Royals | 65 | 87 | 20 |
Key Factors Behind Late-Season Struggles
Injuries to Key Players
Injuries have plagued the Twins throughout the season, particularly in the latter half. Notable injuries include:
- Carlos Correa: The star shortstop has dealt with persistent back issues, limiting his effectiveness at the plate.
- Byron Buxton: A key player for the Twins, Buxton’s recurring knee problems have kept him out of the lineup, impacting both offense and defense.
- Sonny Gray: As one of the top pitchers, his recent shoulder discomfort has raised concerns about the team’s rotation stability.
Slump in Offensive Production
The Twins have seen a significant downturn in their offensive output, particularly in critical late-game situations. Key contributing factors include:
- Low Batting Average: A collective slump among hitters has led to a decline in overall batting average, impacting run production.
- Struggles with Runners in Scoring Position: The inability to capitalize on opportunities with runners in scoring position has been a critical issue.
- High Strikeout Rate: Increased strikeouts have reduced the Twins’ chances of making effective contact during key moments.
Poor Performance Against Division Rivals
As the season progressed, the Twins have faced disappointing results against their division rivals, which has severely impacted their playoff hopes:
- Record Against the White Sox: The Twins struggled against the White Sox, losing crucial games that could have kept their playoff hopes alive.
- Challenges with the Guardians: A lack of offensive production in matchups against Cleveland has further diminished their standing.
Statistical Analysis of Recent Games
The last few weeks have seen a concerning trend in the Twins’ performance metrics. An analysis of their last 15 games reveals:
| Game Date | Opponent | Result | Runs Scored | Runs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 10 | Chicago White Sox | Loss | 3 | 5 |
| Sept 13 | Cleveland Guardians | Loss | 2 | 4 |
| Sept 16 | Detroit Tigers | Win | 8 | 2 |
| Sept 19 | Kansas City Royals | Loss | 1 | 4 |
| Sept 22 | Chicago White Sox | Loss | 2 | 6 |
Benefits of a Quick Turnaround
The Minnesota Twins have the potential to turn around their late-season struggles if they address the underlying issues promptly. Here are some benefits of a quick recovery:
- Improved Team Morale: Winning games boosts confidence and fosters a positive locker room atmosphere.
- Enhanced Playoff Chances: A strong finish to the season can secure a wild card or division title, opening opportunities for postseason play.
- Restoration of Fan Support: A competitive team can reignite fan enthusiasm, leading to increased attendance and support.
Practical Tips for the Twins to Regain Form
As the Minnesota Twins navigate their late-season struggles, here are practical tips for improvement:
- Focus on Health: Prioritize player health and recovery to return injured players to the lineup as soon as possible.
- Reassess Batting Strategies: Work with hitting coaches to refine approach with runners in scoring position to boost offensive production.
- Manage Pitching Rotation: Strategically plan the pitching rotation to ensure that top pitchers are available for crucial games.
Case Study: Late Season Success Stories
Looking at other teams that have faced similar struggles, several case studies demonstrate the potential for late-season success:
- 2021 Atlanta Braves: The Braves overcame a mid-season slump to secure a playoff berth by focusing on player health and timely pitching.
- 2019 Washington Nationals: The Nationals turned their season around with a strong finish, emphasizing offensive discipline and strategic pitching changes.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Players and Coaches
Players and coaches often provide valuable insights during tough stretches. Quotes from Twins’ players reveal the mindset needed to push through challenges:
“We know we have the talent; it’s about putting it all together and believing in ourselves during these tough moments.” - Carlos Correa
“It’s critical to stay focused and not let the pressure get to us. Every game counts, and we have to treat it that way.” - Sonny Gray
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for the Minnesota Twins
As the Minnesota Twins face late-season struggles, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if the team can rally and secure a playoff spot. With health, strategic adjustments, and a focus on team morale, they have the potential to turn their season around and make a noteworthy playoff run.
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