We are now two weeks into the season, and everyone is still trying to find their footing. If you have lingering questions in your hockey fan mind, there’s no better way to get answers than through a forum featuring a knowledgeable expert. Unfortunately, you have me, but let’s make the most of this situation.
It’s time for the mailbag! What early-season storylines are capturing your attention? What creative hypotheticals have you come up with for me? Will I manage to get through this without being asked about The Amulet? Let’s see.
The most significant what-if in NHL history: What if Wayne Gretzky had been traded to Detroit instead of Los Angeles?
Would the Red Wings dynasty have started a decade earlier with Gretzky, or would it never have happened at all if Steve Yzerman ended up in Edmonton? Would we witness a revival in the NHL’s Rust Belt with new teams in Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Indianapolis? Would the Sunbelt era in the NHL never occur? Would Auston Matthews have played for the Blue Jays instead of the Leafs? Would Disney have purchased the L.A. Kings and transformed them into the Mighty Ducks?
While I realize I posed five questions, someone really ought to delve into this alternate history, and I think you are the perfect person for that task. — Josh P.
I allowed Josh’s question to extend because he had some great ideas. And yes, I do enjoy a good alternate history trade timeline. It’s true that Gretzky was very close to being traded to Detroit, so let’s explore this scenario.
While the specifics of a Gretzky-to-Detroit trade remain uncertain, I will assume it mirrors the actual trade with the Kings. This would likely involve first-round picks in 1989, 1991, and 1993, substantial financial considerations, and one exceptional young player. It’s quite possible that Yzerman would be that young talent since he was just 23 in 1988 and had only one 100-point season at that point. (His breakout season with 155 points came in 1988-89.) However, for the sake of fun, let’s imagine he’s not included in the deal and give the Kings’ 1986 No. 1 pick, Joe Murphy, instead.
The draft picks themselves may not yield much — the 1989 draft turned out to be the most pivotal in Red Wings history, but the first round that year was rather lackluster. I believe the hockey aspect of the trade would have left the Oilers with a less appealing return than the uninspiring package they actually received from the Kings.
However, as Josh points out, this trade transcends just the players involved. Sending Gretzky to an established Original Six market instead of California would have had wide-ranging impacts on the league’s future. Southern expansion might still happen eventually, but it likely wouldn’t occur as rapidly. Perhaps the Sharks never separate from the North Stars, and we almost certainly wouldn’t see Disney push into Anaheim.
Regarding the Red Wings, having both Gretzky and Yzerman as centers, along with Sergei Fedorov on the rise and a young Nicklas Lidstrom in the wings, means they would likely secure all the Cups throughout the ’90s. Also, Gretzky never encounters Bruce McNall, which means they never purchase the Argos, leading to the Cowboys selecting Rocket Ismail instead of Russell Maryland in 1991. Moreover, Doug Gilmour never gets high-sticked in the playoffs of 1993, resulting in…
A person who is now approximately 800 percent happier. This is enjoyable.
However, I believe the most significant consequence of this situation is that rather than watching Gretzky awkwardly perform Waikiki Hockey on “Saturday Night Live,” we are treated to him awkwardly uttering “puck puck” as the new spokesperson for Little Caesars. Honestly, this isn’t entertaining anymore; let’s move on.
Is this where you discuss the Winnipeg Jets? — Mike B.
It probably should be, right? They currently have a 7-0-0 record following last night’s victory in Seattle, placing them at the top of the Central Division. While it’s true that such a record is not sustainable throughout a lengthy season, and as expected this early, some of the underlying statistics seem peculiar, this team is indeed talented.
As we talked about on this week’s podcast, the public’s response to their performance strikes me as somewhat odd. The Jets are being compared to other early-season success stories like the Flames and Wild, both of which missed the playoffs last year. The Jets might wish they had, but they certainly did not. Excluding those five games in April against a formidable Avalanche team, the Jets performed very well last season.
How well? They finished with a record of 52-24-6, totaling 110 points. Do you know which other team had that exact record? The Florida Panthers, who ultimately won the Stanley Cup. Did you hear anyone suggesting that the Panthers were unworthy champions, or that they were some kind of fluke, or even a minor surprise? Instead, I observed widespread agreement that, yes, the Panthers won 52 games and deserved to be Cup favorites.
I’m not implying that the Jets are the Panthers, and it’s impossible to wholly dismiss a first-round collapse. However, I find it peculiar that we are viewing this strong start as some bizarre anomaly from a team that is destined to regress to mediocrity, rather than acknowledging that we may be witnessing the second year of a solid team’s consistency.
If you had to make a high-stakes bet on a non-playoff team from the 2023-24 season to win a Cup within the next five years, would you choose the Devils or the field? (And remember, the Coyotes and Utah are essentially the same, despite what the league claims.) — Dustin K.
Hmm. The Devils are certainly the most obvious option among last year’s playoff deniers, but picking them over the field poses a challenge. Moreover, a five-year span is longer than one might expect, allowing several of those rebuilding teams to potentially catch up.
In fact, five years is such a significant duration that trying to forecast the Stanley Cup odds for every team would be impractical. Naturally, I’ve already attempted to do so — in fact, several times, with the latest being in January as part of a two-part series you can access here and here. I did rank the Devils highly, placing them fourth, even though I was aware they would miss the playoffs in the first year of my assessment, estimating their chances at 26 percent.
The subsequent non-playoff teams do not appear until much further down the list, with Detroit, Chicago, and Ottawa grouped together from 16th to 14th, followed closely by Buffalo, Montreal, and Minnesota. It should be noted that while you can’t merely sum all those teams’ percentages to compare them against the Devils, it’s a reasonable approximation, and they come out considerably ahead.
I believe that assessment is accurate. The Devils are undoubtedly the best-positioned team to contend over the five years among our 16 playoff misses. However, choosing them over a field of 15 seems like a risky bet, so I’ll opt for the latter.
Here is a question for you all in the comments: Who would you select to win a Cup in the next five years, New Jersey or a combined group of Chicago, Ottawa, and Detroit?
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Patrick Roy was not heading to Quebec City. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Studios)
In a hypothetical scenario where the Nordiques manage to stay in Quebec, which team would seek to acquire Patrick Roy? Surely, Rejean Houle wouldn’t consider trading him to their provincial rival, would he? — Jason W.
There’s no way they would trade Roy to Quebec. However, once that option is eliminated, the list of potential destinations shrinks significantly. Only 25 other teams exist, many of which are either recent expansions or in the early stages of rebuilding, and most strong teams already have established starters.
While Boston was in need of a goaltending boost, it’s unlikely Montreal would send Roy there. The Kings might find him appealing due to his prominent personality, but they are just weeks away from trading Gretzky and probably aren’t looking to add another star player. Dallas could be a suitable option, as could Philadelphia, although that would entail trading Ron Hextall a second time in four years. Perhaps the Capitals will capitalize on Jim Carey’s high value, resulting in an even worse deal for the Canadiens. Or, perhaps the simplest resolution would apply: They trade Roy to the Sharks, which had already been under consideration prior to his confrontation with Mario Tremblay.
A key obstacle is the notion that the Canadiens would have preferred to receive a French goaltender in any trade, an unverified but understandable request considering Quebec’s political landscape at that time. Since the Devils were not going to part with Martin Brodeur, it seems most likely that Rejean Houle would have sought Guy Hebert, only to be disheartened upon discovering that Hebert hailed from New York.
Imagine a reality where the NHL playoffs do not exist, and since the league’s inception, the Stanley Cup is awarded to the regular-season champions.
Which teams benefit or suffer the most in terms of Cup victories? Are there emerging dynasties or noteworthy droughts? Which player, once denied the ultimate prize, becomes a multi-Cup champion? And which player, known for his winning prowess, finishes his career without a Cup? — Nathaniel S.
Ah, the Presidents’ Trophy. In this alternate universe, it stands as the most challenging trophy to secure, with hockey fans forced to endlessly debate its significance.
Regarding teams, I regret to inform you that the historical standings remain relatively unchanged. The Montreal Canadiens still lead with 23 championships. Following closely, the Red Wings ascend to second place with 18 titles, while the Bruins secure third with 14. Conversely, the Maple Leafs emerge as the significant losers, dropping from 13 championships to just six, now facing a drought that extends back to 1963 instead of 1967.
The teams most opposed to this alteration are the Devils and Kings, as they would forfeit all of their titles. The Penguins, too, would lose all five of their Stanley Cups, retaining only one regular-season championship from 1992-93. In contrast, teams that have not yet won a Cup but would gain a title include the Canucks with two, along with one each for the Sharks, Predators, Senators, and Sabres. The Panthers would still hold a championship, although it dates back two years earlier, while the Golden Knights bring a smile to many faces by losing theirs.
On an individual player level, the “not a winner” tag can be removed from Joe Thornton, Roberto Luongo, and Daniel Alfredsson; however, Marcel Dionne and Jarome Iginla remain unfortunate. The most significant blow falls upon Sidney Crosby, who now finds himself without any championships and must face constant reminders that Alexander Ovechkin has three.
In perhaps my favorite twist, Ray Bourque is still unable to secure a championship in Boston, but achieves one with the Avalanche in 2001. Certain things are simply too undeniably wonderful to ever be altered.
Can you outperform this team? I shouldn’t even need to explain the rule for this one, right? — Anssi T.
| FORWARD | FORWARD | FORWARD |
|---|---|---|
| DEFENSE | DEFENSE | GOALIE |
|---|---|---|
This is erasure of Jordan Spence, and I won’t tolerate it.
Disregarding actual arena logistics, if you had the option to expand the ice surface, would you do it? Longer? Wider? Both? — Gene F.
Extending the length isn’t beneficial, as it merely enlarges the neutral zone. Hockey is most enjoyable when the puck…
The net’s proximity means that expanding the middle area doesn’t really aid unless it complicates trap-based defenses somehow. Initially, it might help, but I suspect NHL coaches would quickly devise methods to obstruct any neutral zone length you offered. So, that idea is off the table.
Wider ice? This suggestion pops up occasionally, although less frequently than it did a few years back. Typically, it stemmed from fans who watched elite international tournaments on broader ice and felt the hockey was more exciting. And it was indeed thrilling, but that was primarily due to the players’ skill, not the rink’s size. Sure, a wider rink might disperse the defense slightly, but you’re ultimately just adding more ice farther from the net. If you tune into a regular season game from an international league utilizing 100-foot ice, it’s likely just as tedious and defensive as the most boring NHL match—sometimes even more so.
The real solution isn’t making the ice larger, longer, or even smaller. Instead, we should revert to an earlier era when specific rinks across the league featured differing dimensions. We don’t have to go to extremes like in Major League Baseball, but a few rinks with distinct setups, dimensions, and corner angles would reintroduce an element of excitement that we’ve lost.
Would you buy and wear The Amulet for all to see if it guaranteed a Leafs title in your lifetime? You must wear The Amulet until they clinch the Cup. — Jason K.
(Deep sigh.)
Ah, The Amulet. If you’ve somehow missed the tale of John Tavares and his enchanted amulet, you can catch up here. Everyone is poking fun at it, and rightly so. It’s absurd, the kind of mystical nonsense that no rational person should endorse, let alone promote openly.
Would I wear one if it ensured a Leafs Cup? Absolutely, I would. Let’s not be absurd.
When you say “in your lifetime,” I’m inclined to seek a bit more clarity. Am I ancient, frail, and bedridden, which at my current trajectory could be just a few years away? That shouldn’t really be a factor. However, if I’m still in a state to appreciate the Cup win, then yes, bring it on. I’ve endured enough with this infuriating team. Get me a version of the John Tavares Amulet of -2 Charisma or something similar, and I’ll flaunt it around town like it’s Flavor Flav’s clock.
Am I naive enough to believe in magic amulets? Please. I believe in the Toronto Maple Leafs, so what do you think?
(Top photo of the Winnipeg Jets: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)
Exploring NHL What-Ifs: The Impact of Wayne Gretzky’s Possible Trade to Detroit and Other Alternate Histories
The history of the National Hockey League (NHL) is filled with moments that have shaped the league, its teams, and its players. One of the most significant “what-ifs” in NHL history is the potential trade of Wayne Gretzky to the Detroit Red Wings in the 1980s. This article delves into this fascinating alternate history, exploring the implications of such a trade and examining other notable alternate scenarios in the NHL. By analyzing these “what-if” situations, we gain a deeper understanding of how events could have unfolded differently and their potential impact on the league’s trajectory.
The Gretzky Trade: A Historical Context
Wayne Gretzky, often referred to as “The Great One,” is widely regarded as the greatest hockey player of all time. His time with the Edmonton Oilers in the 1980s was marked by astounding success, including four Stanley Cup championships. However, rumors circulated about a possible trade to the Detroit Red Wings, which could have drastically altered the landscape of the NHL.
Reasons Behind the Speculated Trade
- Team Performance: The Red Wings were struggling during the early 1980s, and acquiring Gretzky could have been a game-changer.
- Market Expansion: Detroit is a hockey-crazy market, and Gretzky’s presence would have significantly boosted attendance and merchandise sales.
- Player Development: With a talented roster, including players like Steve Yzerman, the Red Wings could have become a formidable force.
Impact of Gretzky’s Possible Trade to Detroit
If the trade had occurred, the NHL landscape would have shifted dramatically. Here are some potential impacts of Gretzky joining the Red Wings:
1. A Powerhouse Team
The combination of Gretzky and Yzerman could have created one of the most potent offensive duos in NHL history. Imagine the synergy of Gretzky’s playmaking ability paired with Yzerman’s scoring touch. This would likely have led to multiple playoff appearances for Detroit sooner than in actual history.
2. A Shift in Championships
With Gretzky in the fold, the Red Wings may have won several Stanley Cups during the late ’80s and early ’90s, which would have altered the narrative of the Oilers’ dominance during that period.
3. Revenue and Popularity Surge
Gretzky’s arrival would have attracted more fans to the Joe Louis Arena. Increased ticket sales, merchandise purchases, and media attention would have provided the Red Wings with substantial financial benefits.
4. The Impact on Other Teams
The Oilers’ inability to retain Gretzky would have had a ripple effect on the entire NHL. Other teams would have had increased opportunities to compete for championships, and rivalries may have developed differently.
Alternate Scenarios in NFL History
Exploring the Gretzky trade opens up a broader conversation about other memorable “what-if” scenarios in NHL history. Some worth considering include:
1. The Missed Opportunity of the 1994 NHL Draft
What if the Florida Panthers had drafted future superstar players like Pavel Bure or the Colorado Avalanche had made different choices? Their decisions not only impacted their franchises but also the overall competitiveness of the league.
2. The Great Trade of 2003
Imagine if the Ottawa Senators had secured a player like Roberto Luongo in the 2003 draft. The Senators might have captured a Stanley Cup, changing the dynamic of the Eastern Conference for years to come.
3. The Lockout of 2004-2005
Had the NHL not experienced the lockout in 2004-2005, would we have witnessed a different trajectory for the league? The introduction of new rules post-lockout altered the style of play and shifted the power balance among teams.
4. The Concussion Crisis
What if the NHL had proactively addressed player safety and concussions earlier? The league’s approach to player health could have changed the fortunes of many teams and players.
Benefits of Analyzing NHL What-Ifs
Exploring these alternate histories provides valuable insights for fans, analysts, and future decision-makers:
- Understanding Decision-Making: Analyzing past decisions helps teams refine their strategies.
- Enhancing Fan Engagement: What-ifs generate discussion among fans, creating a vibrant community of passionate hockey enthusiasts.
- Predicting Future Trends: By understanding the past, teams can better anticipate trends and make informed decisions.
Case Study: The Gretzky Impact on Team Dynamics
To illustrate the effects of Gretzky’s presence on a team, let’s analyze the Edmonton Oilers’ success before and after his departure in 1988. The following table summarizes key statistics:
| Season | Stanley Cups Won (Oilers) | Points Leader (Oilers) | Goals Leader (Oilers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983-1984 | 1 | Gretzky (87) | Gretzky (87) |
| 1984-1985 | 1 | Gretzky (73) | Gretzky (73) |
| 1987-1988 | 1 | Gretzky (40) | Gretzky (40) |
| 1988-1989 | 0 | Messier (99) | Messier (40) |
In the years following Gretzky’s departure, the Oilers struggled to replicate their previous success, highlighting his profound impact on the team’s dynamics.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from NHL Players
Many former NHL players have provided their thoughts on Gretzky’s impact on the game:
- Mark Messier: “Playing with Wayne was a dream come true. He elevated the game for everyone.”
- Steve Yzerman: “The thought of Gretzky in Detroit would have created an entirely different atmosphere in the league.”
- Wayne Gretzky: “I always believed that hockey is a team sport, but my time in Edmonton was unforgettable.”
Practical Tips for Engaging with NHL What-Ifs
For fans and analysts interested in exploring NHL ”what-if” scenarios further, here are some practical tips:
- Join Online Forums: Engage with other fans on platforms like Reddit or specialized hockey forums.
- Follow Podcasts: Listen to hockey podcasts that delve into alternate histories and player analysis.
- Participate in Fantasy Leagues: Create your own scenarios within fantasy leagues, simulating trades and outcomes.
Conclusion
While this article has explored the potential impacts of Wayne Gretzky’s trade to the Detroit Red Wings and other alternate NHL histories, the beauty of these what-if scenarios is that they spark imagination and discussion among fans. Each hypothetical situation offers unique insights into the intricate tapestry of NHL history, reminding us that every decision can have far-reaching consequences.
