It’s that time of year when I’m on the lookout for fresh ideas, and just a few days ago, thp provided me with one.
“A compelling article could examine the last three trades of marquee closers who have about a year left on their contracts.”
What a fantastic article idea! However, the challenge is that such trades don’t really occur often. There are a few somewhat comparable instances, but I mean very loosely comparable, and there hasn’t been a perfect match for Ryan Helsley over the past seven years or so. Honestly, I wasn’t even searching for a perfect comparison; I was hoping to find something that was at least similar. Therefore, part of my discussion here will involve explaining why this comparison isn’t particularly valid. Let’s get started.
Josh Hader
Traded for Robbert Gasser, Dinelson Lamet, Taylor Rogers, Esteury Ruiz
Why this comparison falls short: To put it simply, Hader is significantly better than Helsley, at least at the time of the trade. Hader was operating on a completely different level. I can confidently say that Helsley will not secure a $95 million contract when he hits free agency. Furthermore, this trade included an additional two months of control for what ultimately became a playoff team. Essentially, Hader’s value was so much greater than Helsley’s currently is that it renders this comparison almost meaningless. Nevertheless, let’s continue.
The trade: I’m trying to evaluate this in retrospect because… the return isn’t particularly impressive, is it? Rogers served as a direct replacement for Hader, as the team was still in contention. This likely diminished the prospect value of the trade. Lamet didn’t even pitch for the Brewers; they designated him for assignment less than a week later.
Gasser was ranked as the #9 prospect for the Padres at the start of the season and #10 for the Brewers the next season. Esteury Ruiz was never ranked within the Brewers’ system because he was traded in December as part of the William Contreras trade. However, he was rated as a 45 future value prospect.
In hindsight, I’m not giving the Brewers credit for Ruiz evolving into Contreras regarding this trade. The future trade is irrelevant when specifically analyzing this transaction. Gasser is difficult to evaluate; he pitched decently but failed to record any strikeouts in five starts and needs Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him for much of next year, if not longer, since the procedure was performed in late June. By 2026, he will be 27, possibly with only five MLB starts under his belt. Esteury Ruiz has yet to show that he can be more than a fifth outfielder at the major league level.
Value: Essentially, two 45 FV prospects ($10 million in value). Rogers was likely expected to contribute around half a win for the remainder of the season, bringing the overall return value to about $15 million.
Joe Jimenez
Traded for Jake Higginbotham and Justin Henry-Malloy
Why this comparison is inadequate: Jimenez exhibited much more volatility compared to Helsley. He has also never truly fulfilled the role of a closer. While Jimenez had an outstanding performance leading up to this trade, his previous two years were quite poor. The Braves were certainly investing heavily when they traded for Jimenez.
The trade: It’s safe to say we would all be frustrated if this is what the Cardinals received in exchange for Helsley, but that frustration is understandable, given that Jimenez was (at that moment) essentially a one-year wonder! Henry-Malloy was a 40+ future value prospect at the beginning of this season. He struck out 37% of the time during his rookie season with an 89 w.
RC+. I’m not sure why Higgenbotham was included in this trade—perhaps it’s just due to his name—because he seems like nothing more than minor league depth. At 28 years old, he isn’t exactly a prospect.
Value: One 40+ FV position player prospect ($4 million in value)
Craig Kimbrel
Traded for AJ Pollock
Why this is a poor comparison: Almost every aspect of it. The White Sox had objectives that differed from those of the Cardinals, which is why they acquired an established MLB player coming off a 3.2 fWAR season. Kimbrel was earning $16 million; while he had just finished an elite season, his previous two were less than stellar.
Looking at projections for the following season, this trade would be deemed unremarkable. Kimbrel was forecasted for 0.6 fWAR and Pollock for 1.7 fWAR. From this perspective, the White Sox came out ahead. However, since the Dodgers are not concerned about money, it’s challenging to evaluate this trade the same way one might for the Cardinals. Did they mind that Kimbrel’s contract had a surplus value of -$10? In reality, if taken literally, this trade balances out: Pollock’s surplus value was deemed to be $6 million.
Value: With a burdensome contract, Kimbrel brought in $6 million in value.
Corey Knebel
Traded for Leo Crawford
Why this is a poor comparison: At the time of the trade, Knebel was viewed as a nontender candidate, which is a significant factor. If his 2018 or 2019 seasons had been his most recent performance, it would have made sense. Unfortunately, he had an atrocious 2020. However, given that it was an unusual year, it likely wasn’t evaluated like a typical season.
Trade: Despite this, Leo Crawford was a complete non-prospect. The only mention of him on Fangraphs states, “Crawford sits 86-90,” noted back in August 2019. Although he had decent statistics, he ceased pitching after 2021, despite showing acceptable numbers in AA at age 24. This was likely due to his fastball velocity being just 86-90.
Value: $0
Paul Sewald
Traded for Ryan Bliss, Dominic Canzone, and Josh Rojas
Why this is a poor comparison: I would expect Sewald to hold less trade value than Helsley since he isn’t as strong a performer. He also lacks that standout appeal? His fastball averaged 92.1 at the time of the trade, and he was 33 years old. He strikes me as the type of reliever who presents more risk than the typical reliever, making it less likely he’ll be dominant. This may sound like hindsight, especially considering he performed quite mediocre for the Diamondbacks. Furthermore, he was traded to a postseason contender at the deadline, along with an extra year on his contract.
The trade: The most challenging player to evaluate in this trade is Josh Rojas. He had a solid ZiPS projection heading into 2023 but was dreadful by the deadline. With a 61 wRC+, his hitting lacked power completely. As noted by Fangraphs, “This year, his 86.9 mph average exit velocity, 3.4% barrel rate, and 26% hard-hit rate are his worst numbers since establishing himself in the majors in 2021.” He also recorded a 63 wRC+ in AAA over 12 games.
Moreover, although he was designated as a utility player, he was quite poor defensively at shortstop and third base for Arizona, only performing at an average level at second base. I highlight this because for
For some reason, he has become an outstanding defender for Seattle. This would frustrate me if I were a fan of Arizona.
Canzone, whom I will affectionately refer to as Calzone if he joins the Cardinals, is regarded as a 40 future value prospect. Ryan Bliss is similarly a 40 future value prospect.
Value: This equates to $4 million in prospect value, and let’s not forget Rojas’ value, however you choose to assess it. Honestly, I genuinely believe he had no trade value at the time of the trade. So, let’s just estimate it at… I don’t know, $4 million.
That’s all I have to say. David Robertson, way back when, was traded during his second to last deadline before hitting free agency, but he was involved in a deal with Tommy Kahnle and Todd Frazier. That’s not a trade we wish to recall; two players ultimately never reached the majors, and a third has spent just 37 days in service, not playing in 2024. Also, Tyler Clippard was traded two months prior to reaching free agency.
What have we learned
Hoping to land a top 100 prospect for Ryan Helsley? That won’t happen. That’s the takeaway here. Be ready for a lackluster return. Even the $15 million that Hader brought back is less than what any 50 future value prospect offers. Frankly, the Cardinals might be wise to hold off until the deadline. Jordan Hicks fetched as much for two months as a full year of a reliever coming off a 1.4 fWAR season. He may be a potentially unpredictable reliever, but comparing him to Jordan Hicks, it’s not an unreasonable comparison.
The reality is that the sample size for this type of trade is quite small, so anything is possible. However, I’m actually pleased to have conducted this analysis. I’m perfectly fine with retaining Helsley until next year’s trade deadline. I’m not suggesting that trading him isn’t sensible, because it is, but if the return turns out to be merely “okay fine,” then I won’t feel upset about missing the opportunity for a 45 FV pitcher and a 40 FV position player.
By all means, trade him. But if it doesn’t occur, I’m pretty sure there simply weren’t any compelling offers for Helsley.
# Evaluating Ryan Helsley’s Trade Value: A Look at Recent Closer Trades
In the world of Major League Baseball, the trade market can be as unpredictable as the game itself. Evaluating a player’s trade value requires a keen understanding of their performance, potential, and the current market dynamics. In this article, we will delve into Ryan Helsley’s trade value by examining recent trades involving closers. This analysis will not only provide insight into Helsley’s worth but also offer practical tips for teams considering trades for bullpen help.
## Understanding Ryan Helsley’s Performance
### Recent Stats
Ryan Helsley has established himself as a formidable closer for the St. Louis Cardinals. To evaluate his trade value, let’s take a look at some key performance statistics from the past two seasons:
| **Statistic** | **2022** | **2023** |
|————————|———-|———-|
| Games Played | 62 | 50 |
| Saves | 19 | 23 |
| ERA | 3.23 | 2.94 |
| WHIP | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 11.5 | 12.1 |
Helsley’s consistent performance, combined with his ability to strike out hitters and limit walks, makes him a valuable asset. His ERA and WHIP are particularly impressive, demonstrating his effectiveness in high-leverage situations.
### Strengths
– **High Strikeout Rate**: Helsley’s ability to generate strikeouts is a crucial asset for a closer, making him difficult to hit in critical moments.
– **Control**: With a WHIP under 1.10 in both seasons, Helsley demonstrates excellent control, minimizing base runners and preventing scoring opportunities.
– **Experience**: Having logged significant innings in pressure situations, his experience is invaluable during playoff pushes.
## Recent Closer Trades: A Benchmark for Evaluating Trade Value
Analyzing recent trades involving closers can provide insight into the market value of players like Ryan Helsley. Here are some notable trades:
### 1. Josh Hader to San Diego Padres
In July 2022, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres in a blockbuster deal. The trade involved several players, and it provides a framework for understanding Helsley’s potential trade value.
| **Player** | **Team** | **Return** |
|————————|————————|———————————|
| Josh Hader | Padres | Taylor Rogers, Esteury Ruiz, Robert Gasser, and Dinelson Lamet |
**Takeaways**:
– Hader was one of the top closers in the league, and the return highlighted the demand for elite bullpen talent.
– The Padres gave up multiple prospects, indicating that high-value closers command substantial returns.
### 2. Aroldis Chapman to the New York Yankees
In July 2016, Aroldis Chapman was traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Yankees. This trade also illustrates the high stakes involved in acquiring a top-tier closer.
| **Player** | **Team** | **Return** |
|————————|————————|———————————|
| Aroldis Chapman | Yankees | Rookie Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, and others |
**Takeaways**:
– The Yankees paid a hefty price, including a top prospect, demonstrating the significant value teams place on elite closers.
– Chapman’s track record in the postseason further elevated his trade value.
### 3. Craig Kimbrel to Chicago Cubs
The trade of Craig Kimbrel from the San Diego Padres to the Chicago Cubs in 2019 also serves as an excellent case study.
| **Player** | **Team** | **Return** |
|————————|————————|———————————|
| Craig Kimbrel | Cubs | Jeimer Candelario and others |
**Takeaways**:
– Kimbrel was considered one of the best closers at the time, and the Cubs made a significant investment.
– The return showcased the idea that teams are willing to part with valuable assets for elite closing talent.
## Benefits of Acquiring Ryan Helsley
### 1. Cost-Effective Solution
Helsley is still on his rookie contract, making him a cost-effective option for teams looking to bolster their bullpen without breaking the bank.
### 2. Future Potential
At only 28 years old, Helsley is in the prime of his career. His potential for further development and improved performance makes him a desirable acquisition.
### 3. Playoff Experience
Having pitched in several critical games for the Cardinals, Helsley brings valuable postseason experience to any team looking to deepen their bullpen.
## Practical Tips for Teams Considering Trade
### 1. Assess Team Needs
Before pursuing a trade for a closer like Helsley, teams should evaluate their current bullpen situation. Questions to consider include:
– Do we need a reliable closer, or can we function with a closer-by-committee approach?
– How does Helsley’s skill set fit our team’s overall strategy?
### 2. Analyze Recent Trades
Studying recent trades can provide insights into what similar players fetch in the market. This analysis can guide offers and negotiations.
### 3. Monitor Player Development
Keeping tabs on Helsley’s performance, injury status, and potential development can provide a clearer picture of his trade value.
## Case Studies: Teams that Benefited from Trading for a Closer
### 1. San Diego Padres and Josh Hader
The Padres’ acquisition of Josh Hader solidified their bullpen and played a key role in their postseason run. Hader’s ability to close games under pressure was instrumental.
### 2. New York Yankees and Aroldis Chapman
Chapman’s trade brought instant credibility and performance to the Yankees’ bullpen. His presence helped the Yankees secure numerous pivotal wins during his tenure.
## First-Hand Experience: Insights from Front Office Executives
Several front office executives have shared their thoughts on trading for a closer. Here are some key insights:
– **Value of Experience**: “Having a closer with postseason experience can change the dynamics of a team. We look for players who can step up in high-pressure moments.”
– **Injury Concerns**: “When evaluating trade value, we consider the player’s health. A history of injuries can significantly impact what we’re willing to offer.”
## Conclusion
While Ryan Helsley’s trade value is influenced by various factors, including performance metrics and recent trades involving other closers, it is clear that he presents a compelling option for teams in need of a solidified bullpen arm. Understanding the trade market for closers and evaluating player statistics can help teams make informed decisions. As the trade deadline approaches, keeping an eye on Helsley’s performance and the evolving market will be crucial for both the Cardinals and potential suitors.
