Following Klay Thompson’s departure, the offseason for the Golden State Warriors has been overshadowed by a pivotal question: should the front office consider trading promising young talents like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski for more established players? The response has generally been, ”It depends.” The Warriors have clearly been involved in trade discussions with multiple teams, notably the Clippers regarding Paul George and the Jazz about Lauri Markkanen. However, they have ultimately opted to forego any trades or encountered rejections on their most appealing offers.
As trade chatter has subsided, it appears that the Warriors are set to proceed with their current roster into the upcoming season. Consequently, we are left to analyze what Golden State has in terms of its young talent.
At this moment, the most intriguing player is arguably Kuminga. As he enters the last year of his rookie contract, Kuminga will become a restricted free agent next offseason, and he is undoubtedly looking to secure a substantial pay increase. However, to achieve a maximum contract, he will likely need to make a significant advancement in his performance. But just how substantial of a leap is required?
To explore this, I decided to compare Kuminga’s third season in the NBA with the third seasons of some elite wings who exhibit similar traits to the Warriors forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, and Paul George.
Year 3 Kuminga vs. Stars
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
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21
29.5
8.8
52.9%
32.1%
26.3
24.1%
Pascal Siakam
24
25.5
10.3
54.9%
36.9%
31.9
20.8%
Jaylen Brown
22
24.4
7.9
46.5%
34.4%
25.9
22.2%
Giannis Antetokounmpo
21
24.4
11
50.6%
25.7%
35.3
22.3%
rnrn
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| Kawhi Leonard | 22 | 22.2 | 10.8 | 52.2% | 37.9% | 29.1 | 18.3% |
| Jimmy Butler | 24 | 18 | 6.8 | 39.7% | 28.3% | 38.7 | 16.8% |
| Paul George | 22 | 24.7 | 10.8 | 41.9% | 36.2% | 37.6 | 23.5% |
I was genuinely taken aback by how much Kuminga stood out as a scorer. To account for the variations in pace across different seasons, I utilized per 100 possessions data; however, even when examining standard per game or per 36-minute statistics, Kuminga still ranked among the top. Not only was he scoring at a superior rate than these future All-Stars at this stage in their careers, but he was also doing so with equal or greater efficiency.
The question isn’t solely whether Kuminga will evolve into a superstar, but rather, if he does, how swiftly will this occur? The six players he closely compares to in the table above went on to average 20.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in their fourth NBA seasons. Four of them were selected as All-Stars, two received the Most Improved Player Award, and Leonard clinched the Defensive Player of the Year title.
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the Year. All six guided their teams to the postseason.
If the Warriors can secure that level of performance from Kuminga for the upcoming season, they would eagerly accept it. It seems difficult to believe that such a goal is out of reach. Despite experiencing locker room conflicts and an inconsistent role in the rotation last season, Kuminga still managed to average approximately 16 points and 5 rebounds per game as a 21-year-old on a competitive team.
It is well-known that the 2023-24 season provided a particularly favorable offensive landscape for players, which serves as a valid counterargument to Kuminga’s relative productivity. While this may account for part of his impressive scoring and efficiency, the fact that his usage rate is the highest in the group indicates that his teammates showed a distinct level of trust in him.
There are numerous reasons to approach these early-career comparisons with caution. A key factor distinguishing stars from their less impactful counterparts is their capacity for continued growth when others tend to stagnate. To determine if Year 3 is indeed an appropriate timeline to identify developmental differences, I analyzed Kuminga’s Year 3 output alongside that of various current and former mid-level wings who have been, or still are, impactful players: OG Anunoby, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges, Chandler Parsons, Tobias Harris, and Harrison Barnes.
Year 3: Kuminga vs Role Players
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
| OG Anunoby | 22 | 16.9 | 8.4 | 50.5% | 39.0% | 29.9 | 14.3% |
| Robert Covington | 25 | 22.1 | 10.8 | 38.5% | 35.3% | 28.4 | 21.5% |
| Mikal Bridges | 24 | 20.4 | 6.5 | 54.3% | 42.5% | 32.6 | 14.9% |
| Chandler Parsons |
| Tobias Harris | 21 | 24.7 | 11.7 | 46.4% | 25.4% | 30.3 | 22.2% |
| Harrison Barnes | 22 | 17.4 | 9.5 | 48.2% | 40.5% | 28.3 | 14.9% |
This group’s Year 3 production shows a significant gap when compared to the superstars we initially considered. Notably, Kuminga’s offensive output surpasses that of most peers in this category. It is important to emphasize the distinct developmental trajectory he has followed: despite his impressive numbers, Kuminga had the least amount of playing time in Year 3 relative to these players.
Covington, Bridges, and Parsons exhibit the most similar statistics and could seamlessly integrate with the stars. However, it’s essential to note that all three entered the league as more seasoned players, possessing relatively polished offensive skills, especially as perimeter shooters. Thus, it’s not unexpected that they excelled early on in terms of scoring and efficiency (for context, this is an aspect to monitor with Podziemski). Harris stands out as an exception, averaging 24.7 points per 100 possessions despite lacking a reliable outside shot, highlighting that Harris might represent a lower-end outcome for Kuminga to consider.
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Despite his potential, he was also part of a struggling 23-59 Magic team, which likely provided him with more opportunities to accumulate stats that exceeded his actual talent level.
Is it really that straightforward? Is Kuminga destined for superstardom?
Not at all.
Every player has a distinct developmental journey, and predicting their progress is seldom simple. It’s essential to analyze Kuminga’s scoring efficiency at the age of 21 in his third year. Alongside Kuminga, there have been several other prominent athletes who were highly regarded high school and draft prospects with notable scoring capabilities, yet they encountered scrutiny regarding their perimeter shooting while achieving comparable production levels.
Kuminga’s Year 3 Compared to Others
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Age | PTS | REB | FG% | 3PT% | MPG | USG |
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3
24.1%
Andrew Wiggins
21
32.2
5.5
45.2%
35.6%
37.2
29.0%
RJ Barrett
21
29
8.4
40.8%
34.2%
34.5
27.6%
Anthony Edwards
21
32.5
7.7
45.9%
36.9%
36
29.9%
It was surprising to see how similarly the Year-3 (age 21 season) performances of Edwards, Barrett, Wiggins, and Kuminga aligned. While Edwards demonstrated a more dynamic defensive capability compared to Barrett and Wiggins, the differences between these players at this stage of their careers were minimal. Notably, Wiggins experienced an offensive decline, Barrett maintained a steady performance, and Edwards made a substantial leap in Year 4, averaging 36.6 points per 100 possessions with improved shooting efficiency this past season.
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Kuminga’s two-point scoring efficiency continues to be a significant differentiator in this context. However, it is important to recognize that the Warriors’ system, especially the spacing facilitated by Thompson and Steph Curry, may contribute to enhancing that efficiency. Players on the Warriors frequently experience a notable decline in their 2PT% when playing in different environments (as evidenced by Jordan Poole).
Here, we encounter the inherent limitations of such statistical analyses. What is it that propels Edwards onto a superstar path, while Wiggins and Barrett struggle to shed the “disappointment” label? The answer largely lies in the intangible aspects.
This unmeasurable element serves as the strongest argument for the Warriors to have more vigorously considered trading their assets (Kuminga, Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and picks) during the offseason for a more established star. Despite Kuminga’s early career suggesting he could become an All-Star, past performance is the best indicator of future results.
Nonetheless, as is often the case with philosophical team-building dilemmas, the answer is contingent. The Warriors (notably Jerry West) were justified in declining a trade for Thompson after his third season for a 25-year-old Kevin Love, who had already achieved three All-Star selections.
Should Kuminga develop into a legitimate counterpart to players like Leonard, George, or even Siakam, the trade rumors from the past few years will cast the Warriors in a favorable light for their unwavering stance. Conversely, if he regresses or settles into a role as a reliable secondary contributor, the Warriors could find themselves lacking an impactful player for championship contention during Curry’s remaining prime years.
Projecting outcomes is particularly challenging, given that few NBA players have mirrored Kuminga’s early career trajectory. It is uncommon for a lottery pick to join a championship contender alongside a generational talent. When you factor in the reduced emphasis on a young player’s development due to a desire for competition, you end up with a mixed bag of optimism and apprehension surrounding his progress.
Despite these challenges, Kuminga is still a 21-year-old wing with elite athleticism, who has shown the ability to contain superstar scorers at times, made contributions in the postseason, and concluded the season with an efficient average of 16.4 points per game. Even when the team transitioned from champions to a flawed rotation reliant on a legend, he demonstrated clear improvements.
That blend of potential and performance is one I would confidently invest in repeatedly.
The Warriors are optimistic that this investment will yield dividends as early as this season.
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Evaluating Jonathan Kuminga: The Golden State Warriors’ Young Star on the Brink of Stardom
Overview of Jonathan Kuminga’s Career
Jonathan Kuminga, a forward for the Golden State Warriors, has quickly become a buzzworthy name in the NBA. Drafted 7th overall in the 2021 NBA Draft, Kuminga has shown flashes of brilliance that suggest he could be a future star. Known for his athleticism, versatility, and defensive prowess, Kuminga is at a pivotal point in his young career.
Early Season Highlights
The 2023 preseason has seen Kuminga stepping up significantly. In the Warriors’ opening game against the Los Angeles Lakers, he lit up the court with an impressive 24 points in just 23 minutes off the bench [[1](https://www.nba.com/warriors/news/player-spotlight-jonathan-kuminga-ready-for-the-moment-20231009)]. This performance not only showcased his scoring ability but also hinted at his potential to contribute in high-pressure situations.
Strengths That Set Kuminga Apart
- Athleticism: Kuminga’s explosive jumping ability and speed allow him to navigate the court effectively and finish at the rim with authority.
- Versatility: He has the capability to play multiple positions, making him a valuable asset in various lineups.
- Defensive Skills: With a strong defensive mindset, Kuminga can guard multiple positions, which fits perfectly into the Warriors’ defensive schemes.
- Scoring Ability: His ability to score both from beyond the arc and in the paint makes him a dual threat on offense.
Areas for Improvement
While Kuminga’s strengths shine brightly, there are areas where he can improve:
- Consistency: Maintaining a consistent scoring average throughout the season will be crucial for his development.
- Basketball IQ: Enhancing his decision-making during crucial game moments can elevate his game and the team’s performance.
- Shooting Mechanics: Continuing to refine his jump shot will make him a more reliable scorer.
Statistical Snapshot
Here’s a quick look at Kuminga’s performance stats from the past season:
| Stat Category | 2022-2023 Season | 2023 Preseason |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 9.3 | 24 |
| Rebounds per Game | 4.5 | – |
| Assists per Game | 2.1 | – |
| Field Goal Percentage | 49% | – |
Impact on the Warriors’ Championship Aspirations
Kuminga’s development is crucial for the Golden State Warriors as they aim for another championship. With stars like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson aging, the franchise needs young talent to step up. Kuminga’s emergence as a reliable scorer and defender could complement the existing core and help sustain the team’s competitive edge in the league.
Case Study: Rise of Young Stars in the NBA
Looking at other young players who have made significant impacts in their early careers can provide insights into Kuminga’s potential:
- Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics): Tatum emerged as a star early in his career, showcasing scoring ability and versatility. His evolution into one of the league’s best players offers a roadmap for Kuminga.
- Luka Dončić (Dallas Mavericks): Dončić’s rapid rise through consistent performance and high basketball IQ demonstrates how young talent can lead a franchise.
- Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies): Morant’s explosive playstyle and leadership have turned him into a franchise cornerstone, providing a model for Kuminga to emulate.
Practical Tips for Kuminga’s Development
For Kuminga to maximize his potential, here are some actionable tips:
- Focus on film study: Analyzing game footage can help Kuminga understand opponents better and enhance his decision-making.
- Work on conditioning and strength training: Improving physical fitness will enhance his performance during long games and tough matchups.
- Seek mentorship from veterans: Learning from experienced players in the league can provide Kuminga with valuable insights and strategies.
Fan Perspective: What to Expect from Kuminga
Warriors fans have every reason to be excited about Kuminga’s future. His recent performances indicate that he is ready for more significant responsibilities on the court. The potential for him to become a key contributor as the Warriors chase their next championship is palpable. Observers expect that as he continues to develop, his contributions will become increasingly critical in tight playoff games.
Conclusion
As Jonathan Kuminga continues his journey in the NBA, all eyes will be on him. With his blend of skills and athleticism, he is undoubtedly on the brink of stardom. The Golden State Warriors have a bright future ahead with him as part of their roster, and his growth will be closely monitored in the coming seasons.
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