As Game 4 of the World Series unfolds, the marquee shines with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ starter for the night: TBA. Even once the announcement is made, it may still feel off. Ryan Brasier? Seriously? That’s the approach?
Indeed, although it may not excite the fans, a reliever is the proposed plan, and this has been the strategy from the outset. During the regular season, a bullpen game typically indicates a scheduling quirk where a team struggles to field enough healthy starting pitchers and must find a way to stay competitive. However, this has evolved into a postseason tactic, potentially due to the off days in the schedule, or because deploying multiple relievers against a lineup can yield success in a crucial game.
Is this strategy truly effective? Or is it merely a fallback when starter options are limited? Currently, that’s the situation the Dodgers find themselves in, whereas in previous years, other teams might have opted to start Landon Knack and let him pitch until he encountered trouble. A summary of starting pitchers who threw fewer than 30 pitches during postseason play since 2015 reveals a record of 16-24 across 40 games. This figure includes instances like Luis Severino’s disastrous outing in the 2017 American League wild-card game — deviating from the intended approach, that scenario was unplanned.
The Oakland Athletics’ decision to use Liam Hendriks as the initial pitcher in their 2018 wild-card game marked the first occasion in the Statcast Era where a team explicitly adopted a bullpen game in the playoffs. That was the intended strategy. Analyzing those 40 postseason games and excluding cases where a traditional starter faltered badly in the first inning reveals 32 games that conform to our understanding of bullpen games. In those instances, the bullpen teams held a record of 14-18, indicating that while it’s a slightly better approach, it still represents a worst-case scenario.
This trend mirrors regular-season statistics as far as the numbers indicate. STATS Perform examined all games since 2015 in which starters threw fewer than 30 pitches and found that teams posted a 428-449 record with a 4.52 ERA in such games. However, if we focus only on games where starters threw 30 or fewer pitches *and allowed three or fewer runs* — aiming to filter out the disastrous outings for a clearer picture of the “planned” bullpen games — the record improves to 422-403 with a 4.19 ERA. Planned bullpen games are a feasible tactic from April through October.
Nevertheless, not all teams share the same attributes. While the Dodgers have frequently reached the postseason since 2019, they have employed nine bullpen games across the past 10 playoffs. In contrast, the Houston Astros, having participated in more postseason contests, have only utilized the bullpen strategy twice. If you add the postseason bullpen game totals for the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, and Cleveland Guardians, which have collectively played 145 playoff games since 2015 compared to the Dodgers’ 102, they collectively total just five bullpen games.
Moreover, the Dodgers’ record in those nine playoff bullpen games? Six victories and three defeats. They have triumphed in six of the seven series where they have implemented the bullpen strategy. Their winning percentage stands at 67%, while other teams have secured victories in just 35% of their postseason games initiated by a reliever who threw fewer than 30 pitches.
Why is this the case?
One likely factor is simply the quality of depth. Although comprehensive pitch modeling data has only been available since 2020, it appears that the Dodgers have possessed the best bullpen in baseball based on pitch movement, velocity, spin, and placement.
| Team |
|---|
| Stuff+ | Location+ | Pitching+ |
|---|---|---|
The Yankees have maintained a similar Stuff+ rating of 108 during this period but have struggled with command, reflected in their Location+ score of 98. This performance has placed them outside the top five in Pitching+, which combines both stuff and command to create an additional performance metric.
This season, the Dodgers’ pitching squad, led by Michael Kopech excels in stuff. They feature a total of 15 pitchers with at least average stuff, incorporating key relievers such as Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson, and Ryan Brasier, all of whom possess noteworthy command as well as stuff. This team actively engages in waivers (like with Evan Phillips) and makes both significant (such as Kenta Maeda for Brusdar Graterol) and minor trades (like Dylan Floro for Vesia and Kyle Hurt) to enhance their bullpen for critical situations. They rarely invest heavily in free agency for this specific area of the team, possibly due to substantial spending elsewhere or perhaps the notion that stuff tends to diminish in effectiveness over time, leading to a preference for younger, harder-throwing pitchers over their seasoned counterparts.
An aspect of their strategy aligns with the classic “clock face” philosophy of the Tampa Bay Rays: each reliever offers a distinct variation from the others, even when not as clearly defined by release point as past Tampa Bay pitchers. Kopech delivers a four-seamer that showcases impressive ride complemented by a power slider that lacks significant movement. Blake Treinen employs a super sinker along with a sweeping slider, leading to a sideways action. Although Brasier’s fastball is somewhat similar to Hudson’s, their sliders differ significantly, with Brasier also incorporating a sinker. The strategy is designed to prevent hitters from facing the same pitch shapes, despite all being right-handed pitchers.
Understanding these pitch shapes is crucial, as it might significantly impact how batters adjust to relievers. Research has illustrated that familiarity often results in penalties during the third time through the batting order; similarly, as we consider the third time facing a reliever, it is reasonable to conclude that this familiarity plays a pivotal role.
same for relievers.
The phenomenon known as the “third time through the order penalty,” wherein pitchers tend to see deteriorating results as batters become more familiar with their pitches, is apparent in my models as a residual effect.
This is decorrelated from my xRV, indicating that it stems from familiarity rather than pitchers delivering lower quality pitches. pic.twitter.com/HN0JxWOnyG
— Cameron Grove (@Pitching_Bot) November 21, 2021
Another reason may not involve the specific relievers utilized. This year, the Dodgers recorded the second-lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Considering the previous year as well, they are ranked among the top three, and if we include 2022, they hold the first position. Looking back to 2015, they have maintained the lowest BABIP in baseball. According to various defensive statistics, the team has performed below average in that same period, yet they consistently manage to secure balls in play. This might be attributed to their superior defensive positioning compared to other teams. Here’s how they ranked during the regular season based solely on the defensive value determined by player positioning, courtesy of Sports Info Solutions:
The Dodgers boast an extensive research and development team, equipped with brilliant minds that drive their strategy. Therefore, their success in bullpen games might stem from factors beyond mere pitch modeling, shape variance, or defensive alignment. Nonetheless, they truly excel in this type of gameplay. Just because they opt for a bullpen approach early in the game does not imply that they are relinquishing their pitching advantage in Game 4.
(Photo of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts taking the ball from Anthony Banda in the fourth inning of Game 6 of the NLCS: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
Embracing the Bullpen: How the Dodgers Turn Uncertainty into World Series Strategy
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a rich history in Major League Baseball (MLB), and their strategic approach to utilizing the bullpen has become a key element in their quest for World Series success. In this article, we will explore how the Dodgers have turned uncertainty into a powerful strategy, optimizing their bullpen to enhance performance, manage injuries, and ultimately increase their chances of winning the coveted championship.
The Evolution of the Bullpen Role
Traditionally, bullpens were seen as a last line of defense, primarily responsible for closing out games. However, the role of the bullpen has evolved significantly in recent years. Here’s a look at how the Dodgers have adapted to this evolution:
- Specialization: The Dodgers have embraced the trend of specialization in the bullpen, utilizing pitchers based on their strengths against specific lineups.
- Multi-Inning Relievers: The team has effectively integrated multi-inning relievers to provide flexibility and depth during games.
- Utilizing Analytics: Advanced analytics have played a crucial role in determining matchups and optimizing pitcher usage.
Benefits of an Adaptable Bullpen Strategy
Adopting a fluid and adaptable bullpen strategy offers several advantages:
1. Enhanced Performance and Efficiency
By using pitchers according to their strengths, the Dodgers can maximize performance in crucial game situations:
- Matchup Optimization: Key pitchers face opponents they perform best against.
- Reduced Fatigue: Spread out the workload to minimize injury risks and maintain pitcher effectiveness.
2. Injury Management
Injury management is critical in a long MLB season. The Dodgers’ bullpen strategy emphasizes:
- Preventative Measures: Utilizing pitchers in lower-stress situations to safeguard against overuse.
- Depth in the Roster: Having a deep roster of reliable relievers allows the team to manage injuries more effectively.
3. Playoff Preparedness
In the postseason, the importance of a strong bullpen cannot be overstated. The Dodgers have consistently shown that:
- Flexibility in Game Plans: A well-rounded bullpen allows for varied game strategies.
- Ability to Adapt: The Dodgers can adjust their approach based on the opponent’s strengths.
Case Study: The 2020 World Series Run
The Dodgers’ 2020 World Series victory showcased the effectiveness of their bullpen strategy. Here are some key highlights:
| Game | Key Relievers | Inning | Performance Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Gonzalez, Treinen | 7th | Combined 3 strikeouts, no runs allowed |
| Game 4 | Jansen, May | 8th | Secured 4 crucial outs |
| Game 6 | Graterol, Baez | 5th | Dominated with 4 strikeouts |
Practical Tips for Building a Strong Bullpen
For teams looking to emulate the Dodgers’ success, consider the following practical tips:
1. Invest in Scout and Analytics
Understanding your players’ strengths and weaknesses can significantly enhance bullpen performance. Use data-driven approaches to scout and analyze pitchers.
2. Emphasize Versatility
Encourage pitchers to develop varied skill sets that allow them to adapt to different game situations. This flexibility can be crucial in tight playoff scenarios.
3. Prioritize Health and Recovery
Implement recovery protocols to ensure that pitchers are healthy throughout the season. Regular assessments and monitoring can prevent injuries.
4. Foster a Collaborative Environment
Encourage communication among pitchers and coaching staff to share insights and strategies that can optimize performance on the mound.
First-Hand Experience: A Fan’s Perspective
As a lifelong Dodgers fan, witnessing the team’s adaptation to a modern bullpen strategy has been exhilarating. The way they manage their pitchers creates an air of excitement during games:
- Game Decisions: Every time a pitcher is called from the bullpen, there’s anticipation about how the matchup will unfold.
- Player Stories: The personal journeys of bullpen pitchers, from being overlooked to becoming pivotal playoff performers, add to the team’s narrative.
Watching the Dodgers embrace the uncertainty of the bullpen while turning it into a strategic advantage speaks volumes about their commitment to winning. Every game feels like a chess match, and the Dodgers are master strategists.
Conclusion: The Future of Bullpen Strategy
As baseball continues to evolve, the Dodgers’ commitment to embracing the bullpen as a strategic asset will likely inspire other teams to follow suit. With the right mix of analytics, player management, and adaptability, the Dodgers can continue to transform uncertainty into a winning formula, keeping them in the championship conversation year after year.
