The return of significant NBA action is on the horizon. As the thrilling WNBA Finals conclude, the focus will shift back to the men’s game. Next Tuesday, the defending champion Boston Celtics will host the inaugural regular-season game of the 2024-25 season.
With just a week until the season kicks off, it’s time to take a comprehensive look at the league. In keeping with tradition, we will examine a key statistic that sheds light on the standings of all 30 teams, whether in a favorable or unfavorable context. Teams are ranked according to their over/under win totals from FanDuel.
Boston Celtics: 126.3
A significant trend emerged during the second half of last season regarding the NBA’s scoring dynamics, marked by a shift in the officiating style that slowed down offenses after a surge of high-scoring games.
However, it seems the champions were not affected. The Celtics did not just navigate these changes; they excelled amid them. Boston boasted the highest offensive rating in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass, both prior to and following the All-Star break—yet their advantage over other teams more than doubled in the latter half of the season. While other offenses struggled against more physical defenses, the Celtics maintained their five-out, 3-point-heavy strategy, consistently overwhelming their opponents.
Boston’s Offensive Dominance in 2023-24
| Split | League ORtg | Celtics ORtg | Difference | Celtics Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before ASB | 116.4 | 121.8 | +5.4 | 1st |
| After ASB | 114.2 | 126.3 | +12.1 | 1st |
The Celtics may face a dip in performance during the 2024-25 regular season, potentially due to a championship hangover along with Kristaps Porzingis’s injury. However, given their superiority over the rest of the NBA last season, they possess enough of a buffer to regress slightly and still maintain their status as the top team in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 23.4
The projection of the Thunder as the favorites to win the Western Conference this season is quite clear. They already secured the number one seed in the West last year, despite fielding a roster filled with youthful talent, with 25-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being the oldest rotation player during the postseason.
Last season, the Thunder had an average age of merely 23.4 years, making them the fourth team in NBA history to reach the playoffs with an average age under 24, according to data from Basketball Reference. As I noted last postseason, their regular season performance surpassed that of any of their three playoff predecessors:
In 2023-24, the Thunder achieved 57 wins with a point differential of plus-7.4. The second-best team under 24 in NBA history was the 2010-11 Thunder, who recorded 55 wins with a plus-3.8 point differential. While the records are close, the current Thunder’s point differential is essentially double that of their earlier counterpart.
It is only logical to anticipate further progress in 2024-25, especially since the team has addressed its significant gaps through the acquisitions of veterans Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, along with the unprecedented success the Thunder have already experienced given their youthful roster.
This substantial reshuffling has resulted in a notable enhancement of talent, as New York secured three top-50 players to complement Brunson within a few months, aiming to capitalize on the opportunity presented by the point guard’s unforeseen rise to stardom. Now, at the expense of considerable long-term draft assets and salary flexibility, the Knicks boast the strongest core in the East, outside of Boston. The 76ers may have dominated the offseason, particularly with the acquisition of Paul George, yet they still seek more victories in crucial moments. Since the 2017-18 season, when the 76ers returned to the playoffs following their rebuilding phase, they have achieved a record of just 34-33 in playoff contests. This translates to a win rate of 50.7 percent—the closest to a .500 record among any team during that time. The Process aimed to lift a franchise that hadn’t reached the conference finals since 2001 out of mediocrity; however, after a series of injuries and playoff setbacks, the 76ers find themselves still grappling with inconsistency. Several potential stars alongside Joel Embiid—Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris—have failed to propel the team to the conference finals. This season, the combination of George and further growth from Tyrese Maxey may prove decisive. The primary immediate challenge for Minnesota will be integrating Julius Randle into their lineup, as he presents a different style of play compared to the player he replaces, Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns excels as a 3-point shooter, while Randle does not share this strength. Towns typically operated fluidly within the Timberwolves’ offense, taking quick jump shots set up by Anthony Edwards or Mike Conley Jr.; in contrast, Randle prefers to dominate the ball, utilizing pump-fakes, jab steps, and dribbles to create his own opportunities. Last season, Towns averaged 1.9 minutes of ball possession per game, while Randle held the ball for nearly double that, at 3.8 minutes per game. Only 4 percent of Towns’s shot attempts came after possessing the ball for six seconds or longer, yet an astonishing 19 percent of Randle’s shots followed at least six seconds of individual possession—a number higher than the average for each of Edwards’s teammates. While it is possible that Edwards and Randle will learn to harmonize their offensive approaches, incorporating Randle won’t be an easy plug-and-play replacement for Towns. With Randle still sidelined during the preseason due to shoulder surgery, it may take some time for the team to adapt, even with their current desire to win immediately.
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Philadelphia 76ers: 50.7
Minnesota Timberwolves: 19
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Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
Denver Nuggets: 31.2
Last season, the Nuggets averaged a mere 31.2 three-point attempts per game, the lowest in the league. Thanks to the exceptional play of Nikola Jokic, this scarcity of three-pointers didn’t significantly hinder Denver’s scoring; they ended the regular season ranked fifth in offensive rating, according to CtG. (They also secured the fifth ranking during their championship season.)
However, this could become a more pressing issue for the 2024-25 season as the Nuggets have lost key players Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (who was third on the team in three-point attempts last year) and Reggie Jackson (who was fourth), while acquiring Russell Westbrook (who has struggled as a high-volume three-point shooter historically). Additionally, Jokic’s three-point shooting faltered in crucial games over the summer, as he converted only 26 percent during the playoffs (down from 41 percent in his prior playoff appearances) and managed just 17 percent at the Olympics, which included a tough 1-for-12 performance in two encounters against Team USA.
To fill the void left by Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, the Nuggets are relying on young talents like Christian Braun and Julian Strawther, aiming to provide better spacing for an offense that has been somewhat congested.
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
In stark contrast to the Thunder, the Bucks feature a considerably older roster. With an average team age of 30.2 years last season, they ranked just behind the Clippers (30.4). Notable players such as Brook Lopez (36), Damian Lillard (34), and Khris Middleton (33) are either past their prime, prone to injuries, or both. Giannis Antetokounmpo will also reach 30 by December. Furthermore, key bench players like Pat Connaughton, Delon Wright, Taurean Prince, and Bobby Portis will all find themselves in their 30s by spring. The only member of Milwaukee’s early depth chart who will still be in his 20s during the postseason is guard Gary Trent Jr.
While there’s nothing inherently wrong with having an older roster—experienced teams tend to win more—it highlights how swiftly the Bucks’ championship window is narrowing. Coach Doc Rivers is not particularly known for trusting younger players, and AJ Johnson, Milwaukee’s first-round pick in 2024, seems more of a long-term project rather than an immediate contributor. Beyond improved chemistry among their veterans, it remains unclear how the Bucks can elevate their performance after a lackluster debut season with Lillard.
Dallas Mavericks: 5
Luka Doncic has made first-team All…
-NBA in each of the past five seasons. Below is a list of all players in NBA history who have achieved at least five first-team selections within their first six years:
Players With Five First-Team All-NBA Selections in Their First Six Seasons
| Player | First-Team Selections | 6th Season |
|---|---|---|
| Player | First-Team Selections | 6th Season |
5
2024
Jerry West
5
1966
Bob Cousy
5
1956
George Mikan
5
1954
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