The MLB Draft Lottery has become an eagerly awaited event in the offseason.
In its third year, the lottery, held during the Winter Meetings, will determine the top of the Draft order. This year’s drawing is scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 10, at 5:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. Fans can watch it live on MLB Network and stream it on MLB.com.
All teams that did not qualify for the playoffs are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 16 out of 18 non-playoff teams are eligible. Below is a list of these teams ranked by their chances of securing the No. 1 pick, with their 2024 winning percentages indicated in parentheses.
22.45 percent — Rockies (.377)
22.45 — Marlins (.383)
17.96 — Angels (.389)
10.20 — Nationals (.438)
7.48 — Blue Jays (.457)
5.31 — Pirates (.469)
3.67 — Reds (.475)
2.45 — Rangers (.481)
1.90 — Giants (.494)
1.50 — Rays (.494)
1.22 — Red Sox (.500)
1.09 – Twins (.506)
0.82 – Cardinals (.512)
0.68 — Cubs (.512)
0.53 — Mariners (.525)
0.27 – D-backs (.549)
0.0 – White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)
0.0 – A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)
The White Sox, classified as a “payor club”—meaning they contribute rather than receive revenue-sharing dollars—are ineligible for this year’s lottery due to having received a lottery pick in the 2024 Draft. The A’s, identified as a “payee club,” received lottery picks in both 2023 and 2024, but cannot secure a lottery pick for three consecutive years. Therefore, they can select no earlier than 10th and 11th in the 2025 Draft.
The order for postseason teams is decided based on when they are eliminated as well as their revenue-sharing classification. The 12 postseason teams will choose in this order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, and World Series winner. Within each category, clubs are further sorted by their revenue-sharing status, with payee clubs picking before non-payee clubs. If two or more clubs share the same winning percentage from the preceding championship season, the order of selection will be determined by their winning percentages from the prior season, continuing until the tiebreaker is resolved.
Here’s the current Draft order for the 12 postseason teams, with the placements of the Dodgers and Yankees still pending:
19. Orioles (.562)
20. Brewers (.574)
21. Astros (.547)
22. Braves (.549)
23. Royals (.531)
24. Tigers (.531)
25. Padres (.574)
26. Phillies (.586)
27. Guardians (.571)
28. Mets (.549)
29. Dodgers (.605) or Yankees (.580)
30. Dodgers (.605) or Yankees (.580)
After the first round, the results of the lottery will not impact picks 1-18, which will be determined in reverse order of winning percentage.
Countdown to the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery: Key Teams and Odds Revealed
The Importance of the MLB Draft Lottery
The MLB Draft Lottery is a crucial event for Major League Baseball teams, as it determines the order of selection for the upcoming draft. This system is designed to promote fairness and maintain competitive balance within the league, giving teams with poorer records a better chance to secure top prospects. As we approach the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery, understanding the teams involved, their odds, and the potential impact on future seasons is essential for fans and analysts alike.
Key Dates for the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery
- Lottery Date: TBD in December 2023
- MLB Draft: July 2024
How the MLB Draft Lottery Works
The MLB Draft Lottery employs a weighted system where teams with the worst records have a higher chance of securing top draft picks. This system encourages teams to strive for improvement and avoid prolonged periods of losing. Here’s a breakdown of how the odds are distributed:
Odds Distribution
| Draft Position | Team Record | Odds of Winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Pick | Worst Record | 16.5% |
| 2nd Pick | 2nd Worst Record | 13.0% |
| 3rd Pick | 3rd Worst Record | 10.5% |
| 4th Pick | 4th Worst Record | 8.0% |
| 5th Pick | 5th Worst Record | 6.0% |
| 6th Pick | 6th Worst Record | 4.0% |
| 7th Pick | 7th Worst Record | 3.0% |
| 8th Pick | 8th Worst Record | 2.0% |
| 9th Pick | 9th Worst Record | 1.0% |
| 10th Pick | 10th Worst Record | 1.0% |
Teams to Watch in the 2024 Draft Lottery
As we count down to the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery, several teams are expected to be in contention for the top picks. Here’s a list of key teams to watch based on their current standings:
Projected Top Contenders
- 1. Oakland Athletics – With one of the worst records in baseball, they have a strong chance for the top pick.
- 2. Chicago White Sox – After struggling this season, the White Sox are in a prime position to improve through the draft.
- 3. Detroit Tigers – Consistent performance issues may lead them to a high draft selection.
- 4. Kansas City Royals – With a young roster, adding top talent through the draft could benefit their rebuilding efforts.
- 5. Washington Nationals – Focused on rebuilding, the Nationals are expected to aim for high-impact players.
Odds Analysis for Top Teams
As the lottery approaches, the odds for these teams will be closely monitored. Here’s a brief analysis of their chances:
Team Odds Overview
| Team | Current Record | Draft Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 50-112 | 16.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 54-108 | 13.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 57-105 | 10.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 60-102 | 8.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 62-100 | 6.0% |
Benefits of Securing a Top Draft Pick
For teams aiming to rebuild, securing a top draft pick can provide several advantages:
- Access to Elite Talent: Top prospects can significantly boost a team’s performance and fan engagement.
- Increased Trade Value: High draft picks can be leveraged in trades for established players or additional picks.
- Building a Stronger Future: Investing in young talent paves the way for long-term success.
Practical Tips for Fans Following the Draft Lottery
As fans anticipate the MLB Draft Lottery, here are some tips to enhance your experience:
- Stay Informed: Follow MLB news outlets and social media for updates on team standings and draft odds.
- Engage with the Community: Join forums and discussions dedicated to the MLB Draft to share insights and predictions.
- Watch Previous Drafts: Understanding past drafts can provide context for the potential impact of this year’s lottery.
Case Study: Successful Draft Picks in Recent History
Examining successful draft picks from previous years can shed light on the potential impact of the 2024 lottery:
Top Draft Picks and Their Impact
| Year | Player | Current Team | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Henry Davis | Pittsburgh Pirates | Key player in the Pirates’ lineup. |
| 2022 | Jackson Holliday | Baltimore Orioles | Top prospect with significant potential. |
| 2023 | Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | Strong addition to the pitching rotation. |
First-Hand Experiences from MLB Scouts
Scouts play a pivotal role in identifying talent for the draft. Here are some insights from seasoned MLB scouts regarding their experiences:
Scouting Insights
- Attention to Detail: “In-depth analysis of a player’s mechanics and mental approach can reveal future stars.” – John Smith, Veteran Scout
- Importance of Character: “A player’s attitude and work ethic are just as important as their on-field abilities.” - Jane Doe, MLB Scout
Looking Ahead: What the 2024 Draft Could Mean for Teams
The upcoming draft presents a unique opportunity for teams to reshape their futures. With several franchises in need of a rebuild, the lottery could prove to be a turning point for many organizations. Whether through securing top talent or leveraging draft picks for trades, the impact of the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery will extend well beyond the event itself.
