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The newsletter from my children’s school frequently starts with the phrase, “It’s hard to believe …”
For instance, it might say, “It’s hard to believe school has restarted!” Or, “It’s hard to believe the first semester is coming to a close!” Or even, “It’s hard to believe the number of emails elementary schools send to parents!”
In that vein, I want to express that it’s hard to believe we are just three weeks away from the beginning of the MLB postseason. With so little time remaining in the 2024 regular season, let’s assess ALL the competitions for the 12 playoff slots and the eight significant awards bestowed by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, ranking them by intrigue.
Unless the Cubs perform a miracle, we have four teams – the Padres, D-backs, Braves, and Mets – competing for three spots. It’s possible that we could see a three-way, or even a four-way tie for these three positions, necessitating some serious math to determine the outcome.
However, even if a tie doesn’t occur, there are numerous compelling narratives to follow. The Padres have turned their season around after a frustrating 2023; the D-backs have demonstrated that last season’s NL championship run was no fluke; the Braves are navigating their way through numerous significant injuries; and the Mets have surprised many by having a season that, at one point, seemed like a rebuilding year following last year’s disappointing performance. At the beginning of this season, the notion that the Mets could surpass the Braves for a playoff spot seemed implausible, yet now it appears decidedly possible.
In the running is the Padres’ Jackson Merrill alongside the Pirates’ Paul Skenes, though the 20-year-old Brewers left fielder, Jackson Chourio, is certainly making his mark with a .320/.380/.584 slash in the second half as of Tuesday.
Merrill seems to have taken the lead this season after switching from shortstop to center field effortlessly. He has delivered several timely hits while maintaining an impressive 127 OPS+ for a team in need. Moreover, he has played consistently throughout the season. Conversely, one might argue that Skenes (10-2, 2.10 ERA, 200 ERA+) has quickly positioned himself as one of the top pitchers in the league, both among rookies and veterans, and shouldn’t be penalized for being held back unnecessarily in the season’s early days.
After enduring a challenging second half of the season, the beleaguered Orioles still find themselves in a tightly contested race (with the Yankees currently half a game ahead) that may very well come down to the last week of play. Coincidentally, these two teams are set to face off in the Bronx during that final week (September 24-26).
In my opinion, this matchup would take precedence over the East if the leading Guardians and second-place Royals—who are separated by 3.5 games—had not already completed their season series, and if the third-place Twins (six games behind) were performing better.
As things stand right now, all three of those teams would secure playoff spots. However, Cleveland has rebounded from a disappointing 2023 season, while Kansas City has risen from the ashes after suffering a 106-loss campaign, injecting a thrilling dynamic into the mix. The Royals had managed to overcome what was once a nine-game deficit against the Guardians, only to fall into a frustrating seven-game losing streak. Nevertheless, they remain in contention to become the first team to rebound after losing over 100 games one year and then winning their division the following season. Moreover, unless the Orioles stumble and the Astros begin to excel, we could witness a scenario where the division winner rests, and the runner-up is forced to compete in the Wild Card Series away from home.
This competitive landscape hardly existed (with only the seeding among the Orioles and the second- and third-place AL Central teams left to be determined) until this past weekend when the Twins were swept by the Royals and the Mariners, Tigers, and Red Sox each enjoyed victories in their weekend series.
The Tigers are only three games behind the Twins in pursuit of the sixth seed, while the Mariners and Red Sox trail Minnesota by four games. Indeed, if we broaden the horizon a bit, the Rays are six games behind. It’s reasonable to express a healthy skepticism regarding all these teams, yet what an incredible narrative it would be if the Mariners managed to overcome a catastrophic midseason slump that cost them a 10-game division lead, as well as the firing of manager Scott Servais, to reach October. Alternatively, the young Tigers could mount a surge to surpass a division rival, or the Red Sox might craft an unexpected twist for their Netflix documentary still in production.
It has certainly been an unpredictable journey in the west, with the Mariners managing to transform what was once a 10-game advantage into a 4.5-game deficit. To be honest, it is difficult to envision the Astros relinquishing their lead; their rotation has evolved over the season to regain elite status, and their lineup has recently heated up, particularly with the return of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker from injuries. Nevertheless, the upcoming series against the Mariners in the final week (September 23-25) leaves this matter open for discussion.
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Everyone on Earth, even the animated dogs, is aware of Aaron Judge’s current accomplishments. He is leading the league in virtually every statistical category. His second MVP award in three seasons seems so inevitable that this ranking might actually be overly ambitious.
However, entering Tuesday, Judge was experiencing an unusual slump, going 10-for-47, and remarkably, he had not hit a single home run during that time. If he were to continue struggling, it could open the door for Bobby Witt Jr. to snag the MVP award, just as he often steals bases.
Witt has already made history as the first player ever to achieve 30 home runs, 40 doubles, 10 triples, and 25 steals in a single season. He is closely competing with Judge in both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement calculations. His impressive performance has propelled the Royals into playoff contention, following a season in which they set a franchise record for losses. In our latest MLB.com poll, he garnered six first-place votes, compared to Judge’s 31. Perhaps with Judge’s assistance, Witt can pull off an unexpected victory.
It feels unusual to see a designated hitter as the clear favorite in this race, especially considering that no full-time DH has ever secured the MVP award. Nonetheless, no designated hitter—or any player, for that matter—has reached the 50-50 mark that Shohei Ohtani appears to be on track to achieve. Voters did not penalize Ronald Acuña Jr. for his record-breaking 40-70 season, achieved in a year where stolen bases surged; he received the NL MVP unanimously. Therefore, it is unlikely they will hold Ohtani’s achievements against him either.
Nevertheless, Francisco Lindor has been outstanding. He is a significant factor in why the Mets find themselves unexpectedly vying for a playoff position. Additionally, he plays a key position which, regardless of differing opinions on WAR, is undeniably more valuable than a player without a defined role. Perhaps the passionate New York media, known for making their presence felt (we appreciate you!), will continue to amplify Lindor’s candidacy, contributing to an actual competition. In our poll, Lindor received nine first-place votes compared to Ohtani’s 28.
Once again, though, Ohtani’s potential 50-50 season (or wherever he may end up) is likely to overshadow all other considerations.
The surging Diamondbacks and Padres managed to pull within two games of the Dodgers in mid-August, but since then, the situation has stabilized, with Los Angeles now holding a 4.5-game lead. The Diamondbacks have completed their matchups against the Dodgers, while the Padres have another series against them slated for September 24-26 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers face ongoing injury issues within their rotation, and both Arizona and San Diego will pose serious threats in October; however, it“`html
the Cy. This is particularly relevant given Skubal’s performance this year as a true ace.
Our most recent survey was even more definitive in the NL, where Chris Sale secured all 31 first-place votes. While I appreciate the efforts of Zack Wheeler from the Phillies and other standout performers, it’s time to engrave Sale’s name on his first Cy Young trophy. His comeback with the Braves (16-3, 2.38 ERA, 175 ERA+) has emerged as one of the most compelling narratives in baseball this season.
13. AL Manager of the Year
Admittedly, this award may not be as settled as others ranked higher, but it’s Manager of the Year, after all. I can’t place it any higher than 13th. Ultimately, the fate of this award will likely hinge on the outcome of the AL Central race. Stephen Vogt of the Guardians, having taken over from the legendary Terry Francona and leading Cleveland back into contention, alongside the Royals’ Matt Quatraro, who has turned around a team that lost 106 games last season and is now nearing October, both offer compelling stories.
More likely than not, this award will go to the manager of the leading team, which as of now is Vogt. Given the context of Francona’s legacy, this may solidify Vogt’s win either way.
Hey, Philly! The team from Broad Street has effectively clinched their first division title since 2011 by Memorial Day. Quite an achievement.
15. (tie) NL Central and NL Manager of the Year
The Brewers faced the loss of Craig Counsell, who is widely recognized as one of the finest managers of his generation. They traded ace Corbin Burnes and lost another star, Brandon Woodruff, for the season due to shoulder surgery. To add to their troubles, reliever Devin Williams was diagnosed with stress fractures in his back during Spring Training. Consequently, the Brewers were not seen as likely contenders for the playoffs, let alone to win the Central again.
Despite these challenges, their largely young roster is convincingly leading the NL Central. Their first-time manager, Pat Murphy (without the “interim” label in MLB), is making a strong case for Manager of the Year.
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Countdown to October: Analyzing the Final Race for MLB Playoff Spots and Awards
The Current State of the MLB Playoff Race
As we approach October, the race for the MLB playoff spots is heating up. Teams are vying for a chance to compete in the postseason, and every game counts. The wild card races are particularly intense, with several clubs still in contention.
According to the latest standings, a clear picture of the playoff landscape is emerging. The top teams are battling for division titles while others are focused on securing a wild card spot. As of now, the national and American leagues are filled with excitement and unpredictability.
Understanding the Wild Card System
The MLB wild card system allows teams that do not win their divisions to compete for a playoff berth. This format has significantly increased the level of competition, as more teams remain in contention longer into the season.
- American League Wild Card: Currently, this race is particularly tight, with several teams within striking distance of a playoff berth.
- National League Wild Card: Similar to the AL, the NL is witnessing a competitive environment with multiple teams fighting for the remaining spots.
Current Wild Card Standings
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | 85 | 65 | .567 |
| Team B | 82 | 68 | .547 |
| Team C | 80 | 70 | .533 |
Key Players to Watch in the Final Stretch
As the playoffs approach, individual performances become critical. Here are a few players who are crucial to their teams’ playoff hopes:
- Player X (Team A): With a batting average above .300, Player X has been a consistent offensive threat.
- Player Y (Team B): Known for his clutch pitching, Player Y has the potential to turn games around.
- Player Z (Team C): Emerging as a young star, Player Z’s contributions could secure a playoff spot.
Impact of Injuries
Injuries can derail a team’s playoff aspirations. Keeping an eye on player health and recovery timelines is essential as teams prepare for October. For instance:
- Team A has recently lost a key pitcher to injury, which could impact their playoff chances.
- Team B is awaiting the return of a star infielder, whose presence could be the difference in tight matchups.
Analyzing Team Dynamics and Strengths
Understanding team dynamics is crucial in the final stretch of the season. Factors such as team chemistry, experience, and recent performance trends play a significant role in determining which teams will succeed during the playoffs.
Team Strengths
| Team | Strength | Recent Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Team A | Strong Batting Lineup | 7 Wins in Last 10 Games |
| Team B | Solid Bullpen | 6 Wins in Last 10 Games |
| Team C | Young Talent | 5 Wins in Last 10 Games |
Playoff Awards to Keep an Eye On
As the season winds down, individual players are also vying for prestigious awards. Here are some key awards and the leading candidates:
- MVP: Player X is a frontrunner due to their outstanding all-around performance this season.
- Cy Young Award: Player Y leads in strikeouts and ERA, making him a strong contender for best pitcher.
- Rookie of the Year: Player Z’s impressive debut season has put him in the spotlight for this honor.
Historical Context
Understanding the historical implications of the playoff race and awards can enhance our appreciation of the game. For instance, notable players from past seasons have set benchmarks that current athletes strive to meet or exceed.
Strategies for Fans to Engage with the Playoff Race
Fans have various ways to engage with the MLB playoff race:
- Follow Key Matchups: Pay attention to head-to-head games between playoff contenders.
- Use Social Media: Engage with teams and players on platforms like Twitter and Instagram for real-time updates.
- Attend Games: If possible, attending live games can provide an electrifying experience as teams battle for a playoff position.
Conclusion: Embrace the Excitement!
The final race for MLB playoff spots and awards is a thrilling time for baseball fans. With plenty of drama and excitement, this countdown to October promises unforgettable moments on and off the field.
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