Despite being two games below .500, the Cubs have a shot at reaching the 2024 postseason.
At this juncture, the NL Central title and the first two wild-card positions are out of reach.
However, the third wild-card spot remains attainable. The Cubs are 5 games back with 34 games left to play.
Achieving this will not be straightforward. The Cubs will not be playing any of the teams currently ahead of them in the standings, and they lack the tiebreaker against all of these teams. Therefore, they need to start winning, and convincingly, right away. I have long believed they possess the potential for a winning streak. Today is an excellent opportunity to initiate that.
The Cubs benefit from having a relatively weak schedule ahead. Out of the 34 remaining contests, only nine are against teams currently above .500 (three against the Yankees at Wrigley Field, three against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and three against the Phillies in Philadelphia). Their current road trip features matchups against teams significantly under .500 that are also on losing streaks.
Below is the schedule for the contenders vying for the third wild-card spot, listed in chronological order. Home games are highlighted in bold.
Cubs, 34 games (16 home, 18 road)
at Marlins (3), at Pirates (3), at Nationals (3), Pirates (3), Yankees (3), at Dodgers (3), at Rockies (3), Athletics (3), Nationals (4), at Phillies (3), Reds (3)
The Cubs have 16 home matches in September, including 10 of their last 13 games. They hold a .571 winning percentage at home (36-27), which could be beneficial.
Braves, 35 games (20 home, 15 road)
Nationals (3), at Twins (3), at Phillies (4), Rockies (3), Blue Jays (3), Reds (1), at Nationals (2), Dodgers (4), at Reds (3), at Marlins (3), Mets (3), Royals (3)
The Braves recently won two out of three against the Phillies at home, but next week, they will face them in Philadelphia. They have 20 games remaining against contending teams.
Mets, 34 games (13 home, 21 road)
at Padres (3), at Diamondbacks (3), at White Sox (3), Red Sox (3), Reds (3), at Blue Jays (3), at Phillies (3), Nationals (3), Phillies (4), at Braves (3), at Brewers (3)
The Mets face a challenging schedule, featuring numerous road games and six contests on the West Coast. They did secure a victory in the first game of a four-game series against San Diego on Thursday. They will experience a slight reprieve with a series against the White Sox but conclude with 10 games against contending teams.
Giants, 33 games (15 home, 18 road)
at Mariners (3), at Brewers (3), Marlins (3), Diamondbacks (3), at Padres (3), Brewers (3), Padres (3), at Orioles (3), at Royals (3), at Diamondbacks (3), Cardinals (3)
The Giants face a tough road ahead, with only three games left against a team under .500, all against the Cardinals. The remainder of their contests are against contenders, including 12 matches with the D-backs and Padres. This represents the most grueling schedule remaining for any of the contenders.
Cardinals, 35 games (17 home, 18 road)
at Twins (3), Padres (4), at Yankees (3), at Brewers (3), Mariners (3), Reds (3), at Blue Jays (3), Pirates (4), Guardians (3), at Rockies (3), at Giants (3)
There is at least one favorable match for the Cardinals when they play against the Rockies; however, St. Louis has struggled on the road with a record of 29-34. Out of these 35 games, 25 will be against teams in contention.
Reds, 34 games (16 home, 18 road)
at Pirates (3), Athletics (3), Brewers (4), Astros (3), at Mets (3), at Braves (1), at Cardinals (3), at Twins (3), Braves (3), Pirates (3), at Guardians (2), at Cubs (3)
The Reds face a challenging 10-game road trip in the midst of this stretch, which includes a makeup game in Atlanta, potentially jeopardizing their playoff hopes. On Thursday, they lost the first game of a four-game series in Pittsburgh, 7-0. Aside from an impressive 11-run game against Toronto on Wednesday, they have scored one run or none in four of their last seven outings.
Takeaway
The Cubs still have a chance, but they need to heat up and receive some assistance. Their schedule certainly offers an advantage, but they must take advantage of it. To secure a real opportunity for playoff contention, they will likely need to achieve a record of 22-12 (85 wins) or 23-11 (86 wins). It’s time to get started, Cubs!
Poll
How many wins will the Cubs finish with?
In a recent SB Nation Reacts survey, only 7 percent of participants believed the Cubs would make it to the postseason. To join in the weekly MLB Reacts survey, sign up here.
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Can the Cubs Overcome the Odds and Secure the Third Wild-Card Spot in 2024?
Understanding the Wild-Card Race
The 2024 MLB season is shaping up to be an exciting one for the Chicago Cubs, as they aim to secure the coveted third wild-card spot in the National League. With the competition fierce, it’s crucial to analyze the factors that could influence their chances.
Current Landscape of the NL Wild-Card Race
As of now, the National League wild-card race is tightly contested. The current teams vying for the spot include traditional powerhouses as well as rising teams. The standings fluctuate frequently, making every game critical. Here’s a look at the current contenders:
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 80 | 72 | .526 |
| San Diego Padres | 82 | 70 | .540 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 81 | 71 | .534 |
| Miami Marlins | 78 | 74 | .513 |
Key Factors Affecting the Cubs’ Chances
1. Roster Performance
The Cubs’ performance heavily relies on their roster. Players like Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have shown promise, but the consistency of key players is crucial. The coaching staff must ensure that the lineup remains healthy and productive.
2. Pitching Rotation Stability
A strong pitching rotation can dramatically influence the Cubs’ success. The team must find a way to maintain the form of their aces while managing injury risks. Here are some critical pitchers to watch:
- Marcus Stroman – Key veteran presence.
- Justin Steele - Emerging as a reliable starter.
- Jameson Taillon - Must contribute consistently.
3. Schedule Strength
The remaining schedule can play a pivotal role in the Cubs’ wild-card aspirations. If they face teams with losing records, their chances improve significantly. Conversely, matchups against playoff-contending teams could pose challenges.
4. Injuries and Depth
Injuries can derail any team’s season. The Cubs will need to manage player health effectively and leverage their depth to fill gaps. The development of young talent can also provide a much-needed boost as the season progresses.
Benefits of Securing a Wild-Card Spot
Gaining a wild-card spot not only offers a chance for postseason glory but also has several benefits for the Cubs:
- Increased Fan Engagement: A playoff push typically boosts attendance and fan morale.
- Financial Incentives: Playoff games generate significant revenue from ticket sales, merchandise, and broadcasting rights.
- Player Development: Young players gain invaluable experience in high-stakes situations.
Practical Tips for Cubs’ Fans
Fans can play a vital role in supporting the Cubs as they chase the wild-card spot. Here are some practical tips:
- Attend Games: Your presence can create an electric atmosphere that energizes both the players and the crowd.
- Engage on Social Media: Share your enthusiasm and support for the team on platforms like Twitter and Instagram.
- Invest in Merchandise: Supporting the team through purchases contributes to their financial stability.
Case Studies: Previous Wild-Card Success Stories
Examining past teams that secured wild-card spots can provide insights into what the Cubs may need to do to succeed. Here are notable examples:
| Year | Team | Record | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | San Francisco Giants | 88-74 | World Series Champions |
| 2017 | New York Yankees | 91-71 | AL Championship Series |
| 2021 | St. Louis Cardinals | 90-72 | NL Wild-Card Game Winner |
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Cubs’ Players
Hearing from players can provide a unique perspective on the challenges and excitement of competing for a wild-card spot. During a recent interview, Willson Contreras mentioned:
“Every game counts. We have to take it one pitch at a time and believe in each other. The support from our fans really helps us stay focused.”
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for the Cubs
As the Chicago Cubs look to secure the third wild-card spot in 2024, they face a challenging but attainable goal. By focusing on player performance, pitching stability, and leveraging fan support, they can enhance their chances of making a postseason run. The excitement is palpable, and fans are eager to see how this season unfolds.
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