We ⁢have now arrived at a point in the season where⁤ I can⁣ confidently declare: the Brewers are set to make the playoffs. They will secure the National League Central title. Whom they will face⁤ remains uncertain; the ⁤Diamondbacks, Padres, ⁣Mets, and Braves are all within three games of each ⁣other, competing for three Wild Card spots. ‌The team finishing third among them (currently the Mets, if the season concluded today) will almost certainly ⁣visit Milwaukee for the Wild Card series.

For now, I’m not concerned about their⁤ opponent, but I want to envision what the Brewers’ possible pitching strategy could resemble in a ‌best-of-three series and potentially further into the playoffs. This⁢ conversation is particularly peculiar for⁤ the Brewers;⁢ many names in ​this discussion were off the radar ⁤back⁢ in March. We were aware that Corbin‌ Burnes⁣ had departed and Brandon Woodruff was sidelined.​ However, we didn’t anticipate ‍Wade Miley‍ pitching just seven ⁣innings before being competently replaced by​ Robert Gasser, who would subsequently undergo season-ending surgery. Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas were not on⁤ the roster, and most hadn’t even considered Tobias Myers. Half of the bullpen consisted of fringe relievers who were essentially afterthoughts​ during spring training. A lot has ⁣changed since then.

Now, as we approach​ the postseason, ⁣it’s time‍ to consider: What will⁤ Milwaukee’s rotation look ⁤like in the playoffs?⁤ What should it look like? I will explore these questions, predict who ‍will likely be utilized,⁣ and discuss who I hope isn’t part of the equation.

Who is definitely going to start?

The Brewers are guaranteed to play at ⁢least two games in the 2024 postseason. While we⁢ certainly hope for more, ⁢it is clear they‌ will align their⁤ two best pitchers for those initial matchups. It seems evident who those pitchers‌ will be: Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers.

Neither pitcher is without their flaws. Peralta has endured ⁢a frustratingly inconsistent year, often marked by inefficiency ⁣and an underlying expectation that he could be performing better. Nevertheless, among the starting options available, Peralta boasts the most talent and the highest game-to-game potential. In the playoffs, where the league’s best hitters are intensely focused on every pitch, having elite stuff is crucial. While Milwaukee benefits from a strong defense, striking⁢ out hitters is vital when facing top-tier ⁤talent.​ Despite his inconsistencies this season, Peralta remains in the top 15% in⁤ whiff percentage and around the top quarter in strikeout percentage, even‍ after experiencing a ⁣late-season decline in strikeouts.

On the other ⁤hand, Myers possesses a rather alarming Statcast profile, and not⁤ in a favorable way. His chase and strikeout percentages ‍are average,⁤ placing him in the 17th percentile ‌for whiff percentage. He manages to limit walks reasonably well, ​but he struggles overall. His tendency to surrender hard-hit balls and fly balls⁤ could spell trouble. ⁣Remarkably, he currently ⁤holds a 2.93 ERA for the ​season. ​His 144 ERA+ would rank fifth among starting pitchers if he ⁣had pitched enough innings to⁤ qualify. He has delivered​ results despite the underlying concerns.

The disparity between his unimpressive Statcast metrics and ⁤an ERA that significantly exceeds his FIP could suggest that Myers might falter unexpectedly. Nevertheless, he has​ performed admirably to this‍ point, and perhaps there are still a few more successful​ outings in him before⁢ the clock runs out.

Who is definitely going​ to pitch out ​of the bullpen?

The ⁣clear high-leverage choices are Devin Williams and⁢ Trevor Megill. However, identifying the⁢ next option proves to be more challenging than I anticipated.

Joel Payamps has‍ shown significant improvement recently and appears to be emerging as a reliable choice ‍for Pat Murphy.

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Currently, Payamps is considered​ the third option in the Brewers’ bullpen. It is likely that if the Brewers enter the seventh inning‍ with‌ a⁤ lead, they will utilize Payamps, ⁤Megill, and Williams to secure the win. Since early August, Payamps has permitted only two earned runs over 14 1/3 innings, yielding an impressive 1.26 ERA, alongside ‌respectable, albeit not exceptional, ⁢strikeout numbers. He experienced some⁤ difficulties​ during the first three months of the season, but since July, his ERA has significantly improved, dropping ⁢by over a run.

Who is⁣ the left-handed option in this bullpen? The Brewers seem to have lost faith in Bryan Hudson, who had a remarkable three-month stretch but now holds⁢ a 3.93 ERA ⁣and a 6.45 FIP since July began. He isn’t even included in the major league roster as the season nears its conclusion. Jared Koenig has performed admirably this year and appears to be a candidate for ​postseason action;‌ however, his recent form has‌ been less impressive, having allowed four runs (three ⁣earned) across ⁤his last five appearances—only two of which were scoreless. It’s certainly plausible that ⁢Aaron Ashby now ​tops⁣ the list, as he hasn’t surrendered any runs since returning to the majors on August 25, recording 13 strikeouts ⁣against just two​ walks over 11 innings. Although Ashby has exhibited reverse splits against left-handed batters‌ this season in the majors, and his stats are nearly balanced in the minors, the small sample size as a reliever tempers any​ conclusions.

I’m confident that we will see DL Hall, but more‍ on that ⁤shortly.

Who will be ⁣the third starter?

Unless faced with ⁤a worst-case situation (a two-game sweep), the Brewers will require a third starting pitcher. Ideally, they will not call upon this player until​ the third game of the division series. For ⁢the majority‌ of the season, Colin Rea was my go-to choice‍ for‌ this role.⁣ However, I sense some ​uncertainty now,⁢ and I no longer‌ believe he‌ will ⁣be the answer. Aside from the ‍drubbing ‌he ​received from the Giants on Wednesday, Rea has been ⁤trending downward. While his performance hasn’t been ⁤entirely poor, August saw three rocky outings amidst two strong performances, and‍ he struggled with efficiency during ⁢his‍ September 4 start ‌against St. Louis. Like Myers, Rea’s Statcast metrics are‌ concerning; however, in contrast to Myers, it seems that the results are beginning to reflect those troubling underlying numbers.

Additionally, two pitchers the Brewers acquired‌ at the trade deadline, Aaron Civale and⁤ Frankie Montas, have recently shown ⁢strong performances. The hard-throwing Montas‌ may not have much to offer beyond solid velocity, ⁢but his overall ‍statistics since joining the Brewers are commendable: he holds a​ 3.92 ERA and a 3.59⁤ FIP, ⁣with nearly 10 strikeouts⁢ per nine innings. Civale boasts an even better ⁣ERA of 3.84 with⁤ the Brewers (over⁣ a larger sample ⁤size). ‍Although his FIP (4.69) is not as impressive ⁢as Montas’, he is on an upward ⁢trajectory: in his last ⁣six⁣ starts, Civale has achieved a 2.67 ERA (and a 3.95 FIP) across 33 2/3 innings, not allowing more than three runs in any start⁢ since August ‌3.

*This note was penned before Montas pitched six shutout innings with eight strikeouts ⁤on Thursday night. The author’s opinion of Montas has ⁢grown even stronger ‍since then.

Given the current circumstances, either Montas or Civale is likely a more favorable choice than Rea. Statcast data is not particularly fond of any of these pitchers, yet it rates ‍both Montas and Civale higher than Rea. Regardless of who starts that ⁢hypothetical third game, I anticipate they will have a very short leash (which applies to Myers as well); any⁤ sign of trouble could result in a quick hook. However, out of the three pitchers, Montas has ‌ by far delivered​ the best outcomes during the first time through the batting order:

Opponent OPS, first time through batting order:
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/>Civale: .699
Montas: .584
Rea: .827

Considering Montas’s capability to navigate through the lineup once, I would likely choose him as a⁤ starter, allowing him to pitch until any ⁣signs of instability arise, ​with the hope that he avoids giving up home runs. At the first indication of trouble, adjustments will be necessary. But to whom?

What ​is the long relief hierarchy?

Relievers capable of spanning ⁤multiple innings ⁣can be ​invaluable during the postseason when starts are typically cut shorter. The ideal modern postseason reliever resembles the Andrew Miller archetype; if you remember, Miller had an impressive run in the 2016 postseason, throwing four scoreless innings over two games in the ALDS and then 7 2/3 scoreless innings across ​four appearances in the ALCS for ‍Cleveland.

While⁢ it may be a stretch⁣ to claim that ⁣the Brewers possess a Miller or Wade ⁤Davis this season, DL Hall is certainly the frontrunner ‍when considering “who might pitch multiple innings out of the Brewers bullpen.” He has performed well since rejoining the team on August 11 (including one outstanding start), and his last two outings—both quite impressive—have⁢ been from the bullpen. I⁤ strongly suspect that ‍in game two⁢ of the playoffs, Hall will be ​poised to support the ⁤starter (likely Myers), regardless of the outcome of game one. If Myers can extend his outing, then Hall can‍ remain in reserve and be prepared to step in for game three, if required.

Conversely, if Hall pitches in game two and the Brewers find themselves tied 1-1 after two games, who takes the “piggyback” role in game three? The pitchers mentioned earlier who do not start that game⁤ are certainly in contention, and in this scenario, I would favor Civale due to Rea’s rather poor stats the first time through the order (which I acknowledge are skewed from Wednesday’s rough outing). However, there might be another ‍option as well.

Joe​ Ross‍ started the⁢ season off decently, but not impressively. After missing​ some time, he‍ returned to begin a couple of games, ⁢yet as the team regained its health, he transitioned ​to a bullpen position. Since fully committing ‌to the bullpen on August 6, Ross has ⁢excelled: ⁤allowing just one run in 18 innings (a 0.50 ERA) with a FIP of 2.06. He⁤ has gone multiple innings in ​seven of ​his ​nine appearances during this stretch. Comparing Ross to the⁤ three potential game-three starters mentioned above, he has allowed a‌ .600 OPS on his first time through the batting order, which is better than both Civale and Rea. If the Brewers require a long‌ reliever and Hall is unavailable, I would opt for Ross.​ While he⁤ has not pitched in the most high-pressure situations, his skill set ‍appears well-suited for this role.

I sense that Hall could be an ⁤indicator of this team’s postseason fate. If he performs well in the playoffs, I‌ believe the Brewers will​ succeed. However, if he‍ struggles, I fear they may encounter difficulties.

Are there any ⁢surprises in store?

It seems the Brewers have no plans to ⁢promote either of the intriguing relief​ options currently at Triple-A ⁣Nashville: ⁤Jacob Misiorowski‌ and Craig Yoho. With Hoby Milner and Elvis Peguero facing challenges (Peguero was optioned on Thursday, not for either of these pitchers; instead, he was replaced on the roster by Enoli Paredes), one might assume it would be the perfect opportunity to⁤ give these players some big-league experience. Unfortunately,⁣ they have not received that opportunity, and I do‍ not foresee a situation where either is granted a chance to pitch against major league hitters in the playoffs without prior ⁤experience.

It is unfortunate. Misiorowski may struggle with control ​at times, but he possesses electric stuff, ‌and since shifting to a relief role for the Sounds
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He boasts‍ a 2.31 ERA and a .380 opponent OPS, accumulating 14 strikeouts over 11 2⁄3 innings. Yoho has been nearly impossible to hit throughout the season, showcasing a remarkable changeup that has allowed him to maintain an ERA of⁤ 1.50 or lower across three ⁤different minor league levels (0.44 with 37 strikeouts in 20 1⁄3 innings at High-A, ⁢1.17 with 46 strikeouts in 23 innings at⁣ Double-A,⁢ and‍ 1.50 with 16 strikeouts in 12 ⁤innings ⁤at ‌Triple-A).

It certainly appears that having one (or both) of these pitchers on the ​postseason​ roster⁤ presents a significantly‍ greater advantage than⁣ including Milner, Peguero, Paredes, or that fifth ‌starter, who, barring extra innings, is unlikely ‌to pitch in the opening series even if included in the roster. However, time is running short to ⁢provide either Miz or Yoho ⁢with experience at the major league level, and with each passing day, my optimism is dwindling for either to receive an opportunity.

Where does that leave us?

During⁣ last year’s ⁣Wild Card round, ⁢the Brewers included ​15 position players and 11 pitchers. The ratio would inevitably change⁣ in later rounds, but if we’re going with 11 pitchers for the first round, here’s my‍ proposed lineup:

Starters: Peralta, Myers, and‌ Montas
Long relievers (prepared to piggyback): Hall ‍and Ross
Left-handed options: Koenig⁤ and Ashby
7th inning: Payamps
8th inning: Megill
9th inning:⁣ Williams

That accounts for 10 pitchers, leaving one spot available for one of ⁣Civale, Rea,‌ Paredes, Milner, or⁣ Nick Mears (currently injured). From this group, I would likely select Civale, though I would prefer to ⁣see one of the Triple-A players in that​ role, probably Yoho. ​If any of them perform ​well, I‌ would⁣ also consider providing some of Payamps’ opportunities to them. Unfortunately,‌ I don’t believe we will discover if they can​ rise to the occasion.

Conclusion

I feel reasonably confident in that selection. While none of the starters exude a great⁢ deal of trust, the bullpen appears to⁣ be in solid condition, and ⁤it seems there are multiple ways to construct a cohesive game plan using four⁣ or five pitchers. This becomes increasingly challenging as the playoffs progress, but ​it remains achievable.

Moreover, having​ starters you lack​ trust in could ultimately serve as a silver lining, as ⁤I doubt anyone on this roster will create a Grady Little/Pedro Martínez scenario. Quick hooks, a variety of pitchers, and maintaining pressure on the opposing ⁣team could all be effective strategies. It! Could! Work!

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Brewers Playoff Pitching Strategy: Key Players ⁣and ‍Surprises Ahead of the Postseason

Understanding the⁣ Brewers’ Pitching Strategy

The Milwaukee Brewers have consistently proven to‌ be a formidable force in Major League Baseball (MLB), particularly ​during the postseason. Their pitching strategy is a crucial component of ⁢their success, blending experience with⁤ innovative tactics to‌ outmaneuver their opponents. As ​the playoffs approach, understanding their key players ⁤and potential surprises can provide insights into how they might perform.

Key Pitchers ⁤to​ Watch in⁣ the⁢ Playoffs

• Corbin Burnes – Burnes is the ace of the⁣ Brewers’ ‍rotation and a two-time All-Star. His ability to dominate hitters with a high strikeout rate and low earned run average (ERA) makes him invaluable‌ in high-pressure situations.
• Brandon​ Woodruff -​ Known for his powerful fastball and‌ consistency, Woodruff complements Burnes perfectly.‌ He has a history of performing well in the⁢ postseason, making him a critical player in the Brewers’ playoff plans.
• Devin Williams – As the‍ team’s closer, Williams brings a unique blend of speed and precision to the mound. His​ devastating changeup can disrupt even the most formidable hitters, making him a key asset in tight games.

Surprising Elements of the Brewers’ Pitching Strategy

The Brewers are known for ⁢their adaptability and willingness ⁣to surprise their opponents. Here are some unexpected elements to look out ⁢for:

1. Bullpen Utilization

The Brewers have one of ‍the most dynamic bullpens ‍in the league. Instead ‍of relying solely on starters, their⁤ strategy often involves utilizing multiple pitchers to face different batters, creating matchup advantages.

2. Opener Strategy

Employing an opener for crucial games ⁢is another innovative tactic they might consider. This approach can⁣ throw off the rhythm of opposing hitters,⁣ especially in⁤ critical ​playoff matchups.

3. Leveraging Analytics

Analytics play a massive ‍role ⁣in ​the Brewers’ strategy. They utilize data to determine optimal pitching strategies based on the opposing team’s weaknesses, helping to‌ enhance their chances of success.

Impact of Key Injuries on Pitching Strategy

Injuries can significantly impact a team’s pitching strategy.‌ The Brewers​ have faced their share of injuries this season, and understanding⁣ how they adapt is vital:

• Freddy‌ Peralta – Peralta has been a crucial part of the rotation but has struggled with injuries. ⁤If he returns, his performance could‌ add ​depth to⁣ an already strong pitching lineup.
• Eric Lauer – Lauer’s potential return from injury could provide additional options in both​ the rotation and the bullpen, further enhancing their playoff capabilities.

Case Studies: Previous Playoff Performances

Examining past⁣ playoff⁣ performances can provide valuable insights⁤ into how the Brewers ‌might approach this postseason:

Practical Tips for Fans to‍ Understand Pitching Strategies

For fans looking to gain ‍a deeper understanding of the Brewers’ pitching strategies during‍ the playoffs, consider ⁢the following tips:

• Follow⁣ advanced statistics such‌ as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WHIP (Walks and Hits per ‍Innings Pitched) to evaluate pitcher performance.
• Watch how the Brewers ⁤manage⁢ their bullpen throughout ‌the game, including situational matchups and how often they use their key relievers.
• Pay attention to ​in-game ‌adjustments made by the coaching staff, especially how they respond to their⁢ opponents’ hitting patterns.

First-Hand‍ Experiences: Insights from Players

Hearing from players themselves‌ can⁣ provide ⁤unique insights into ⁢the Brewers’ playoff mindset. Here are some insights from key players on their approach:

Corbin Burnes: “Every pitch matters in the playoffs. We focus on making adjustments quickly and staying mentally sharp.”

Devin Williams: “Coming ​out of the bullpen in a playoff game is electric. You have to trust your stuff and rely on the game plan.”

Looking Ahead: The Brewers’ Postseason Outlook

As the Brewers prepare for the⁤ postseason, their pitching strategy will be​ crucial to their success. ‍With a combination of key players, innovative tactics, and a strong bullpen, they have the potential to make a deep playoff​ run. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how​ these strategies unfold on the field.

Conclusion

The ‌Milwaukee Brewers’ playoff pitching strategy​ is a multifaceted approach that involves key players,‍ unexpected⁣ tactics, and a strong reliance on analytics.​ Understanding these components will enhance your viewing experience during the postseason and​ provide‍ insights into how the Brewers aim for success.

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