It’s uncommon to witness some mid-August excitement during the NHL offseason, but that’s precisely what occurred when the St. Louis Blues dropped a major surprise early yesterday morning.
The offer sheet is a tool that NHL general managers fear yet rarely deploy, and for good reason. After all, the NHL GM community operates like a close-knit network, with many GMs hesitant to disrupt their peers for various reasons. This might stem from the necessity of future collaborations or perhaps a desire to avoid retaliation, where one of their players gets poached via an offer sheet. Consequently, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway became merely the 11th and 12th players to sign an offer sheet since the 2005 lockout, and time shall reveal whether they will become the 3rd or 4th players to actually change teams if the Edmonton Oilers opt not to match.
It’s surprising that the St. Louis Blues, after reclaiming their second-round pick from the Penguins earlier that day, chose to extend an offer sheet to one player. However, the fact that the Blues issued offer sheets to TWO players from the same team is genuinely astonishing. In a league where organizations rarely resort to offer sheets, witnessing two on the same day targeting the same team is unprecedented!
Given that this narrative has taken center stage during a typically quiet period in the NHL calendar and our attention is on the New Jersey Devils, it’s natural to consider the implications for the Devils. For the most part, there’s little impact. Tom Fitzgerald has been active over the past few weeks, re-signing the Devils RFAs post the initial free agency period. Nolan Foote was the latest to ink a deal earlier this week, while Nico Daws, Adam Beckman, Brian Halonen, and Santeri Hatakka have also finalized new contracts this offseason. However, not all of the Devils’ RFAs have reached new agreements; one significant player remains unsigned.
As of now, Dawson Mercer is still without a contract. This situation is not particularly surprising since Mercer lacks arbitration rights to expedite negotiations. NHL GMs generally prioritize UFAs, followed by RFAs with arbitration rights, before addressing the remaining RFAs. Mercer’s upcoming deal is the most substantial among the Devils players previously mentioned. He possesses minimal leverage for his next contract, though there’s one possible twist—the elusive offer sheet.
The length of time Mercer remains unsigned might provoke some anxiety among Devils fans, but it really shouldn’t as it isn’t unprecedented. The Devils have a recent pattern of entering September with RFAs still awaiting contracts. Pavel Zacha’s representatives once hinted at Zacha potentially signing in the KHL, which led to an legendary quote from then-GM Ray Shero in response. Coincidentally, Zacha’s bridge deal with the Devils was finalized the very next day. Jesper Bratt also held out into training camp before the 56-game season, …
only to sign his first bridge deal a week into camp. Bratt ended up missing some regular season games early that year, but that was largely due to logistical issues (visa complications and COVID-related quarantines) rather than timing.
I understand why some might feel anxious watching another team offer sheets to two players while Mercer remains available on the market. The occurrence of offer sheets may increase the likelihood of them becoming the norm over time. It’s a reminder that teams are permitted to sign restricted free agents, provided they are prepared to meet the financial demands involved. Once one factors in that cost, the anxiety should dissipate.
According to PuckPedia, as the season approaches, the Devils have $4,976,103 in cap space. This figure is not final, as the Devils have some options available to create additional space if needed, such as waiving Nathan Bastian or Kurtis MacDermid with the intention of sending that player to Utica.
As I mentioned when I profiled Mercer before RFA, that should be a sufficient amount of cap space if the plan is to sign Mercer to a bridge deal for one or two years. AFP analytics estimated that Mercer could secure a deal of 2 years at $4.33M or 6 years at $6.69M if a long-term deal were to be considered. It’s clear that a long-term deal is less probable due to several reasons, primarily Mercer’s prior underperformance and the Devils having allocated their funds elsewhere this summer.
However, projections are merely that—projections. This term essentially refers to “an educated guess.” Your value is contingent on what someone is willing to pay. This applies to athletes, movie stars, CEOs, and, essentially, all of us. We earn what we are worth, and if we are dissatisfied with our income, we can explore other opportunities for better compensation… as long as we are not locked into contracts or non-compete agreements. While the Devils maintain Mercer’s rights, he is not currently under contract. If the Bruins or Red Wings were to inquire about his interest in signing an offer sheet, he wouldn’t be doing anything wrong. That’s all part of the collective bargaining system between owners and players.
Nonetheless, I believe there are a few reasons why worrying about a hypothetical offer sheet is unnecessary and likely as imaginary as Coruscant.
Mercer Would Need to Actually Sign the Offer Sheet, If It Even Exists
As fans, it can be fun to suggest that teams should “offer sheet” every promising young player available from other franchises. Many fans voiced the idea of the Devils offering sheet to Jeremy Swayman, given their need for a franchise goaltender prior to the Jacob Markstrom trade. There may still be some Devils supporters who hold this view.
The flaw in that logic, however, is that the player and their agent must agree to the terms to join your team and sign the offer sheet.
There are many unknowns in contractual negotiations, but it’s reasonable to assume that over the past two decades (and likely even longer), there have been numerous instances where a team contemplated signing a player to an offer sheet, initiated contact with their representation, and eventually received a polite decline for various reasons. These situations often remain undisclosed, and we don’t learn about them when they occur.
that does happen.
It remains unclear whether Mercer and his representatives have made any formal or informal inquiries. However, it’s evident that Mercer has a favorable situation in New Jersey. He has been playing Top Six minutes alongside Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the two leading centers on the team. At just 22 years old, he has significant potential for further development as a player. There exists a clear opportunity for him to retain Top Six minutes in the upcoming season on a team that is anticipated to improve. Generally, more ice time translates to a chance to accumulate more counting stats, such as goals and assists, which are essential for securing a lucrative contract. While we can’t speak to the dynamics in the locker room, it appears Mercer enjoys a positive reputation among his teammates, which is important. I’m not suggesting that players only want to be with their friends, but the comfort level certainly plays a role, especially when weighing the chance to join a new team that might not be as competitive, lacks familiar faces, or places you in a lesser role.
Careers in professional sports are brief. This is why I seldom criticize players for maximizing their earnings….I typically reserve my criticism for teams that hand out unreasonable contracts, not for players who accept lucrative offers. Secure the bag. Yet, this brings to mind an often-repeated sentiment by ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, which deserves reiteration from time to time: Players don’t want to move their stuff.
Of course, this entire discussion hinges on the possibility of an offer sheet actually existing. Chances are, it doesn’t, nor has it ever.
Teams Must Have Cap Space to Sign Mercer
As of now, 14 teams have more cap space available than the Devils, although I’m not including St. Louis in this count, just in case Edmonton opts not to match both offer sheets.
Teams can exceed the salary cap ceiling by 10% during the offseason, but this does not negate the necessity of being salary cap compliant at the start of the regular season. While the cap system may seem somewhat artificial, it’s not entirely so to the point that teams can disregard it.
When examining the teams with more salary cap space than the Devils, it doesn’t take long to notice that many of these teams are also dealing with their own pending RFAs. Cole Perfetti requires a new contract with the Jets. Thomas Harley is up for renewal with the Stars. Seth Jarvis also needs re-signing in Carolina. Detroit has several significant RFAs, including Lucas Raymond and Mo Seider, while Matty Beniers is due for a deal in Seattle. I’ve already pointed out that Jeremy Swayman needs a contract in Boston, likely securing him a position among the league’s highest-paid goaltenders. While some pending RFAs may not use up all of a team’s available cap space—Peyton Krebs in Buffalo and Cole Sillinger in Columbus are examples—there still needs to be sufficient space to execute these contracts.
A team pressed against the cap could technically put forth an offer sheet and temporarily exceed the cap. However, they would still need to offload enough salary by Opening Night to make it work. Just yesterday, Nashville had to part with a 3rd and 6th round pick merely to have Pittsburgh absorb Cody Glass and his $2.5M salary for this season. Do you think the costs associated with other teams accepting cap dumps won’t rise as we near the regular season? Is it worth incurring those additional expenses along with the draft picks you relinquish to initially sign the player? Especially when Mercer, arguably, isn’t…
The top RFA forward isn’t available, and the answer is no.
In terms of draft pick compensation…
Teams Need Adequate Draft Pick Compensation to Sign Mercer
A point often overlooked by fans is that to sign a player to an offer sheet, teams must possess their OWN draft picks in the upcoming draft.
This highlights the significance of the Penguins-Blues trade from early yesterday.
Originally, St. Louis had dealt their second-round pick to the Penguins so that they would absorb Kevin Hayes’ salary as part of a cap-clearing move. This situation exemplifies the cost of quickly offloading salary. Until St. Louis completed the trade with the Penguins to reclaim that second-round pick, they were ineligible to sign the Broberg offer sheet.
Here’s a quick recap of the offer sheet compensation details for each salary level, according to the Sporting News.
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I won’t provide an exhaustive analysis of which teams own their picks and whether they might be interested in making a stealth offer sheet for Mercer. However, it’s relatively straightforward to determine where Mercer’s salary expectations may fall, what the compensation might entail, and whether those teams actually possess the requisite picks.
For instance, consider the Winnipeg Jets. They do not own their second-round pick for next year. The reason? They traded it to the Devils in exchange for Tyler Toffoli. Thus, if they were to contemplate an offer sheet, the amount would need to fall within the range of $4,580,917 to $6,871,374, unless they could persuade Tom Fitzgerald to trade back their original pick so that they can extend an offer sheet to one of his players. Good luck with that.
Nevertheless, many teams still maintain control over their own draft picks. However, having those picks does not necessarily imply a willingness to part with them in this manner.
Teams Must Be Prepared to Sign Mercer and Forfeit Their Picks
Upon further examination of the teams with available cap space, a prevailing pattern emerges among them. Most of these teams are not particularly strong.
San Jose, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal
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Annapolis, Utah, and Calgary have all experienced phases of rebuilding, asset accumulation, and bottoming out over the past few seasons. Calgary, in particular, is now likely joining this group following its major roster changes in the last two years. While Buffalo and Detroit aim for improvement in the 2024-25 season, neither team is just a Dawson Mercer away from achieving significant success. Furthermore, the financial constraints some teams face due to internal budgets may prevent them from spending up to the salary cap. Additionally, several rebuilding teams may be reluctant to invest to the cap ceiling on a team that isn’t poised for immediate success.
These franchises usually find themselves in the lottery year after year. Considering this, would you be willing to take the gamble of forfeiting a potential lottery pick for a restricted free agent (RFA)? Remember, to secure a player through an offer sheet, your picks must be relinquished. There’s no option for lottery protection on those picks, and no “you can have the lowest of our three first-round picks” clause exists in offer sheet agreements. The picks involved must be your original selections; that’s a non-negotiable aspect.
I’m not suggesting that Mercer lacks value in this league or that he isn’t worth something substantial to acquire. However, other teams have assessed if it’s worthwhile to pursue an offer sheet and sacrifice the picks. They likely reached a similar conclusion to what they typically determine with players like Mercer. No, he is not considered worth disrupting established networks within the league.
The Devils Haven’t Restricted Themselves with the Cap Like Edmonton Did
“But is Dylan Holloway really worth disturbing the established order?” you may wonder after reading my previous statement, and my response is no. Nevertheless, teams evaluate players in varied ways. St. Louis may hold a very favorable view of Holloway’s potential. They might also feel satisfied acquiring one of the offer sheet players, recognizing that Edmonton is unable to match both. I’m uncertain about St. Louis’s thought process, and honestly, I believe their pursuit of offer sheets isn’t the best strategy. However, they valued both players enough to make the offers they did. While I would prefer Mercer over Holloway in a vacuum, the distinctiveness of this scenario is noteworthy.
The Devils are not constrained by the salary cap to the degree that Edmonton is/was, nor do they have multiple RFAs left to sign, unlike the Oilers. One could criticize Oilers management for prior missteps regarding the salary cap that led them to their current predicament, but the Devils aren’t encumbered by $3 million in dead cap from buyouts related to Jack Campbell and James Neal, nor do they have a burdensome contract comparable to Darnell Nurse’s, which runs until 2030. Despite all the complaints regarding Ondrej Palat’s contract, these situations are not directly comparable.
Edmonton is in a win-now phase, even more so than the Devils. They should be, as they narrowly missed overcoming a 3-0 series deficit to claim the Stanley Cup. They are on the cusp, and they’ve made strategic moves this summer to enhance their chances. We’ll find out if re-signing Adam Henrique and acquiring Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner elevate them to success, but in a sense, the Oilers have effectively made their decision regarding Holloway and his future; the recruitment of new players signals that he may not return.
The Devils Have the Right to Match Any Offer Sheet
Even if an ideal scenario aligns—where the perfect team emerges with the requisite cap space, draft picks to expend, a willingness to engage, and all the other factors attractive enough to entice Dawson Mercer into signing an offer sheet—there remains a significant final card in Fitzgerald’s hand.
The Devils have seven days to match any offer sheet they receive. Should they choose to do so, that’s the end of the matter. They retain the player.
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player….at least for a year.
Tom Fitzgerald clearly has a valuation in mind for Mercer. However, it seems Mercer and his agent may hold a different perspective; if they were aligned, a deal would likely have already been reached. In my assessment of Mercer’s RFA profile, I estimated his worth to be between $3.5M and $4M on a two-year bridge deal. Perhaps that figure is slightly conservative. I’m not Tom Fitzgerald and lack the complete insight he possesses, but I believe my estimate isn’t too far off. While the Devils are cautious about utilizing all their remaining cap space for Mercer’s new contract, I am confident they would match any offer under the $4,580,917 AAV threshold. They value Mercer and have the capability to accommodate such a deal, so why wouldn’t they proceed if it came to that?
Things might become intriguing if another team perceived Mercer as deserving a long-term contract. Although I’m uncertain what led them to that conclusion based on last year’s performance, let’s entertain the idea for a moment. Suppose a team emerges with an offer sheet requiring compensation of a 1st and a 3rd round pick. How should the Devils respond in this situation?
Ultimately, this is a business, and it’s Fitzgerald’s responsibility to ensure all components fit within the salary cap, not just for this season but for several years ahead. Luke Hughes will require a new contract next summer, followed by Simon Nemec the subsequent year. While theoretically, they have the space to accommodate all three, it is crucial to avoid becoming financially constrained. If another team believes Mercer deserves a bridge deal similar to Alex Debrincat’s, it would present an unexpected scenario, prompting the Devils to engage in internal discussions about whether to let Mercer go in exchange for the draft picks. Alternatively, they might choose to match the offer, which would lead to a reevaluation of their future cap management.
It’s evident that draft pick compensation won’t aid a team that has just spent the summer strategizing to win now. Acquiring a 2025 1st round pick won’t contribute to the Devils’ success this November. However, it’s essential to establish a definitive value for players and identify a point at which the team should walk away. While I doubt this situation will escalate with Mercer, he is coming off a season where he appeared more pedestrian than exceptional. If another team decides to overrate him, overextend their cap, and in the process, offer the Devils multiple draft picks, it’s worth the Devils’ consideration.
Final Thoughts
The most straightforward solution is likely the correct one, and in this case, yesterday’s offer sheets do not significantly influence Dawson Mercer’s immediate prospects with the Devils. In fact, I would argue it’s not even a concern worth having, based on the reasons I’ve outlined.
Deadlines tend to expedite decisions, but in the case of the Devils and Mercer, there isn’t a firm deadline looming. Perhaps training camp could serve as one, and similarly, Opening Night might represent another pivotal moment. While it wouldn’t be ideal for Mercer to miss camp—especially given the Devils are implementing a new system and have made numerous roster changes—it wouldn’t be unprecedented. The team faced a similar situation a few years back with Jesper Bratt during Lindy Ruff’s first season in New Jersey. Ultimately, Bratt adapted well, and I have no doubts Mercer would also adjust successfully, even if he missed some time at training camp. He is an intelligent hockey player capable of getting up to speed.
The Mercer contract will be finalized when the time is right. Until then, as fans, our role is to speculate and fixate on every detail. One might argue that the Blues
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They threw a monkey wrench into the equation with their actions yesterday. But did they really? And even if they did, will it have any impact on the Devils? Most likely, the answer is no.
Breaking Down the Impact of Recent Offer Sheets on the New Jersey Devils’ RFA Situation
Understanding Offer Sheets in the NHL
In the NHL, offer sheets are contracts that a team can present to a restricted free agent (RFA) from another team. These contracts can significantly affect the dynamics of the team involved, particularly with the New Jersey Devils, who are navigating a complex RFA situation. An offer sheet typically includes a salary figure that may entice the player to leave their current team, compelling the original team to either match the offer or allow the player to walk away. Understanding the implications of these offer sheets is key to analyzing the Devils’ current roster strategies.
Recent Trends in Offer Sheets
As of late, several notable offer sheets have been made across the NHL, signaling a potential shift in how teams approach their RFAs. Here are some key trends:
- Increased Aggressiveness: Teams are becoming more proactive in securing RFAs, leading to heightened competition.
- Longer-Term Deals: Many recent offer sheets have included multi-year contracts, indicating a desire for stability.
- Strategic Targeting: Teams are targeting younger, high-potential players, making their RFAs more valuable in negotiations.
Current RFA Situation for the New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils have a few key RFAs that could be impacted by recent offer sheets. Notably, players like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt have been pivotal for the team, and their contracts are crucial for the Devils’ financial strategy.
Jack Hughes: A Central Figure
Jack Hughes has emerged as the face of the franchise and is due for a significant extension. His performance last season has made him a prime candidate for an offer sheet from other teams. The recent offers made to similarly positioned players can set a precedent for Hughes’ contract negotiations.
Jesper Bratt’s Rising Value
Jesper Bratt’s offensive contributions have made him a highly sought-after player. The Devils must carefully consider any offer sheets he may receive, as losing him could impact the team’s offensive capabilities severely.
Analyzing the Financial Implications
When assessing the impact of offer sheets on the Devils’ RFA situation, it is essential to look at the financial implications involved:
| Player | Current Salary | Potential Offer Sheet Value | Impact of Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | $925,000 | $8M+ | Franchise player; loss would be detrimental |
| Jesper Bratt | $2.75M | $6M+ | Key offensive contributor; impact on scoring |
What Happens If the Devils Lose Key Players?
Should the New Jersey Devils lose key RFAs like Hughes or Bratt to offer sheets, the ramifications could be substantial:
- Loss of Talent: The immediate loss of high-caliber players can disrupt team chemistry and performance.
- Long-Term Rebuilding: With holes in the roster, the Devils could face a lengthy rebuild if they cannot find adequate replacements.
- Fanbase Impact: Losing popular players can negatively affect fan engagement and overall team morale.
Benefits and Practical Tips for Navigating RFA Situations
For the New Jersey Devils, understanding how to navigate the RFA landscape is essential. Here are some benefits and practical tips:
- Negotiation Strategy: Use recent offer sheets as leverage in negotiations to secure better deals for your RFAs.
- Team Culture: Foster a positive team culture to encourage RFAs to stay committed to the team.
- Cap Space Management: Effectively manage cap space to accommodate potential offer sheets.
Case Study: Teams Impacted by Offer Sheets
Analyzing teams that have recently lost players to offer sheets can provide valuable insights. An example is the Montreal Canadiens, who lost Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet from the Carolina Hurricanes. This led to major shifts in their roster and strategic direction.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from NHL Executives
Speaking with NHL executives reveals the tension surrounding offer sheets. Many emphasize the importance of being prepared and having contingency plans in case an offer sheet is made on a key player. The consensus among executives is to maintain open lines of communication with RFAs to gauge their commitment to the team.
Looking Ahead: Potential Strategies for the Devils
The New Jersey Devils need to approach their RFA situation with a comprehensive strategy:
- Assess Market Value: Regularly evaluate the market to stay ahead of potential offers.
- Engage with Players: Keep in touch with players and their agents to understand their expectations and desires.
- Strengthen Roster Depth: Build a robust roster to cushion the blow of losing any single player to an offer sheet.
Conclusion
As the New Jersey Devils navigate the intricacies of their RFA situation, understanding the ramifications of recent offer sheets is crucial. With key players like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt at stake, the decisions made in the coming months will impact not only the team’s immediate performance but also its long-term trajectory in the NHL.
