The hopes for a Royals playoff berth vanished on Thursday night. While it’s easy to dwell on the team’s struggles, rest assured that you’ll find extensive analysis and reflections on the season during the off-season. I have a reputation for sharing off-topic content during this time, but hopefully, I won’t have as much free time this year, especially considering the heightened expectations for the Royals in 2025.
As mentioned, plenty of detailed analysis is to be expected. However, today, I aim to provide a brief overview of the position in which the Royals find themselves as they head into the offseason. There has been much discussion about the luck the team experienced this year, and I intend to explore what can realistically be anticipated for the upcoming season. The interesting part is that, as I compose this, I don’t have all the answers. I plan to implement a technique I learned from former colleague David Lesky, who manages the excellent Inside the Crown newsletter, and I’ll document my thought process as I progress, allowing us to uncover the answers together.
How fortunate were the Royals?
I have previously discussed how fortunate the Royals were regarding injuries, so there’s no need to dwell on it further. For the season, the Royals had a run differential that ranked second in the AL and sixth in MLB, indicating that this statistic often provides a better reflection of a team’s potential than their win-loss record. Unfortunately, they faced the only team in the AL that had a superior run differential during the ALDS. According to the Pythagorean Record from Baseball-Reference, based on run differential, the Royals were quite unlucky, finishing with five fewer wins than anticipated, which tied them for the second-worst luck in MLB. Their Pythagorean record of 91-71 ranks as the second-best in the AL and sixth-best in MLB. Baseball-Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which considers opponent strength along with run differential, also lists them tied for second in the AL while placing them eighth overall in MLB.
A team with a 0-WAR would generally be expected to win approximately 52 games. In contrast, the Royals secured 86 victories. If we tally the FanGraphs WAR contributions of every player who participated with the Royals this year, they collectively earned 20 WAR from hitters and 20.2 from pitchers, totaling 40.4 WAR. This performance would translate to 92 wins. Meanwhile, using Baseball-Reference’s methodology, we arrive at 20.3 from hitters and 21 from pitchers, leading to an anticipated 93 wins. One-run games are another metric to gauge luck, as their outcomes can often seem arbitrary. This season, the Royals had a record of 17-21 in such games.
While the team was fortunate in terms of player health, they were rather unfortunate regarding results translating into wins. As I noted in my earlier piece about injuries, the Royals aim to enhance their roster depth considerably to establish consistent competitiveness. However, their success this year wasn’t merely a result of winning games they should have lost. Depth typically stems from AAA players who can perform adequately over short spans; thus, barring significant trades (which will be discussed another time), the Royals may still lack considerable depth next year. Nonetheless, they do possess a solid core to build upon.
Roster Status
Regarding the core, the roster landscape shifts as the team approaches the offseason. Below is a list of players they will be losing to free agency:
- Michael Lorenzen
- Will Smith
- Tommy Pham
- Garrett Hampson
- Tommy Pham
- Yuli Gurriel
- Robbie Grossman
- Paul DeJong
Moreover, Adam Frazier has a mutual option that the Royals are likely to reject. Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, and Hunter Renfroe possess player options. Wacha might opt-out*, while Renfroe and Stratton are highly likely to exercise theirs. This scenario will create at least nine vacancies on their 40-man roster. Two of those spots will be filled by Josh Taylor and Kyle Wright, providing the Royals ample room for potential moves.
*The situation with Wacha merits a dedicated discussion of its own. In brief, the Royals likely have the opportunity to retain him if they choose, and personally, I believe they should.
The cumulative fWAR for the players leaving stands at 0.2, with contributions from Lorenzen, Hampson, and DeJong being the only positive highlights. None of these players were pivotal contributors, and while re-signing those last three at a reasonable cost could be worthwhile, the Royals can comfortably move on without losing any sleep over it.
Looking ahead, the Royals are left with most of their starting rotation intact, the backend of a bullpen (don’t forget that Hunter Harvey should return next year), and a few players around whom they can construct a lineup. Below are the position players I believe should secure guaranteed starting roles as we approach the offseason, ranked by stability.
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Salvador Perez
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Kyle Isbel
- Michael Massey
Everyone else has encountered significant consistency challenges. Considering Massey’s injury history, it may be prudent to seek a platoon partner for him, potentially Maikel Garcia, who, while not a starting-quality infielder, possesses enough speed and defensive skills to serve effectively as a utility player. Nevertheless, this still leaves four openings in the lineup.
Here’s the stark reality: If the Royals aim to genuinely compete for the division and advance further in the playoffs next year, acquiring at least two impactful bats should be their primary goal. One should be an on-base catalyst to lead off, while the other should provide power in the middle of the batting order. Filling the remaining lineup spots with players who offer speed and/or solid defense would be beneficial. We can delve into specific candidates later, but the key takeaway is clear. To improve their fortunes next season, the team requires a more consistent offense. Currently, there are no internal players ready to fulfill this need; thus, external acquisitions are essential.
It is equally crucial to bolster pitching depth—particularly the type of swing depth that someone like Lorenzen could provide. However, the Royals should be willing to allocate the majority of their free-agent budget towards hitters. If they are serious about their intentions, they may need to commit at least as much in annual salary as they did for Lugo and Wacha. Whether John Sherman can accept the idea of increasing the payroll by $30 million or more on two hitters, alongside what is necessary to complete the bench and bolster the weaker aspects of the bullpen, remains to be seen.
Assessing the Royals’ Offseason Strategy: Balancing Luck and Roster Needs for 2025
Understanding the Royals’ Challenges
The Kansas City Royals enter the 2025 offseason with a mix of challenges and opportunities that define their strategic approach. After several seasons of rebuilding, the front office must now focus on optimizing their roster to ensure they can compete in a tough AL Central division. Here, we explore how the Royals can balance luck and roster needs to make a significant impact in the upcoming season.
The Importance of Roster Assessment
One of the first steps in the Royals’ offseason strategy is a thorough assessment of their current roster. Understanding player performances, injury histories, and potential for growth is crucial. A few key areas to focus on include:
– **Player Performance Metrics**: Analyzing statistics like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), and defensive metrics to evaluate player contributions.
– **Injury History**: Keeping track of players with recurring injuries to gauge their reliability.
- **Prospects and Minor Leagues**: Reviewing the talent pool in the minor leagues to identify potential call-ups or trade bait.
Key Metrics to Analyze
| Player | 2024 WAR | OPS | Injury Games Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4.2 | .820 | 15 |
| Vinny Pasquantino | 2.9 | .780 | 20 |
| Brady Singer | 3.5 | N/A | 10 |
| Jackson Kowar | 1.5 | N/A | 25 |
Identifying Roster Needs
With a clear understanding of the players on the roster, the next step is to identify specific needs. The Royals have several critical areas that require attention:
– **Starting Pitching**: The rotation has been inconsistent, necessitating the addition of reliable arms.
– **Outfield Depth**: Ensuring a solid mix of speed and power in the outfield is essential for both offensive production and defensive stability.
– **Bullpen Reinforcement**: A strong bullpen can make or break a season; therefore, scouting for emerging talents or seasoned veterans is vital.
Potential Free Agent Targets
As the Royals prepare for the offseason, they should consider targeting free agents who can fill these critical gaps. Here are some intriguing options:
- Starting Pitching: Jameson Taillon – A veteran presence with playoff experience.
- Outfield Depth: Cody Bellinger – A bounce-back candidate with a high ceiling.
- Bullpen Options: Aroldis Chapman – A proven closer who can provide stability and experience.
Leveraging Luck in the Offseason
While roster needs are essential, luck plays a pivotal role in the success of any team. The Royals can enhance their chances of good fortune by:
– **Maximizing Draft Capital**: Trading underperforming players for draft picks can provide the team with valuable assets for future growth.
– **Monitoring Injuries Across the League**: Analyzing other teams’ injuries can open the door for trade opportunities or potential free agents.
– **Player Development**: Investing in player development programs can lead to unexpected contributions from young talent.
Case Study: The 2024 Season
In the 2024 season, the Royals experienced a mix of luck and strategic decisions that impacted their performance. For instance, their decision to promote a young pitcher from the minors led to a surprising boost in their rotation. This unexpected success highlights the importance of being open to opportunities that arise during the offseason.
Practical Tips for the Royals’ Offseason Strategy
To effectively balance luck and roster needs, the Royals should implement the following practical tips:
1. **Utilize Data Analytics**: Leverage advanced analytics to assess player performances and potential trade targets.
2. **Engage with Fans**: Building a strong community connection can yield insights into player performances and preferences.
3. **Maintain a Flexible Roster**: Adapting the roster to the evolving landscape of the league can provide a competitive edge.
4. **Focus on Youth**: Investing in young prospects can lead to higher returns and increased fan engagement.
First-Hand Experience: Learning from Other Teams
Examining the approaches of successful franchises can provide the Royals with valuable insights. Teams like the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves have thrived by focusing on player development and data-driven decision-making. Their ability to adapt and evolve is a crucial element the Royals can learn from in their quest for success.
Final Thoughts on the Offseason Strategy
As the Kansas City Royals prepare for the 2025 offseason, balancing luck and roster needs will be paramount to their success. From assessing current players to identifying free agents and leveraging opportunities, the Royals have the chance to make significant strides. By implementing data-driven strategies and learning from successful franchises, the Royals can set a strong foundation for a competitive season ahead.
This offseason will not only shape the 2025 season but will also dictate the trajectory of the franchise for years to come. Thus, careful planning, effective decision-making, and a little bit of luck will go a long way in determining how far the Royals can go on their path to contention.
