“`html
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
Since the conclusion of the 2020 season, the Red Wings have been on a methodical journey back to respectability following the low point of their rebuild.
They have made incremental improvements, with individual players showing better performance, and they have accrued more points each year. This effort culminated in April when they narrowly missed the playoffs by just one point. Although their efforts have not yet been enough to end an eight-year playoff drought, their trajectory has consistently pointed in a positive direction.
This season stands as the most significant challenge thus far for Steve Yzerman’s vision. Are the Red Wings genuinely competitive, or are they merely mediocre?
The projection
Admittedly, this projection appears low for the Red Wings. After compiling a commendable 91 points last season, they seem ready to progress further, yet the forecasting model remains skeptical of the team’s authenticity in its current form.
Forecasted at 80.9 points, this prediction is even lower than their initial forecast at the beginning of last season (85 points), which may come as a surprise to some. This decline stems from lackluster underlying statistics from last season, which were weaker than the previous year when Detroit finished with only 80 points, coupled with a lackluster offseason that arguably left the team in a worse position.
Should the core players make significant advancements or if a prospect emerges unexpectedly, there is hope; however, the Red Wings still face considerable gaps, particularly on defense, that have been inadequately addressed through free agency. With an improving competition in the Eastern Conference, this season seems set up for potential disappointment.
The big question
How substantial of a leap can Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider make in Year 4?
The strategy behind every extensive rebuild is consistent: advocate for patience, lose as many games as possible, and hope that the ensuing struggles grant an opportunity to draft a franchise-defining player, repeating the process as needed. The Red Wings certainly executed the first two parts from the latter half of the 2010s. However, the lottery luck never favored them, peaking in 2019 with the fourth-worst record resulting in the No. 6 pick, followed by the worst record in 2020 yielding the No. 4 pick.
Back then, the aspiration was that the players selected in those drafts, although unlikely to be immediate impact players, would evolve into future cornerstones. Meanwhile, Detroit would need to adapt its plan. One can only be poor for so long, especially with capable players like Dylan Larkin on the roster. Now, as we approach the middle of the 2020s, the drafted prospects who were once seen as consolation picks have indeed matured into essential components. The pivotal question surrounding Raymond“`html
Detroit has made it to the postseason. His skating and puck skills have always been apparent, even when the outcomes did not reflect it, and he now boasts a 72-point season along with a $64.6 million contract.
It is reasonable to question why his projected Net Rating for the 2024-25 season is lower than his finish last season. The reasons primarily include uneasy five-on-five impacts and a limited track record. Despite the rise in production, Detroit was still outscored and out-chanced when he was on the ice last season, and it cannot be solely attributed to goaltending issues.
Nonetheless, Raymond’s production, youth, and synergy with Larkin and DeBrincat hold significant value, along with his enhanced contributions to shot and chance creation. His standing in Player Tiers also indicates a level of optimism; for the 2024-25 season, he is positioned in 4C, at the lower end of the Star Tier, signaling that he has not yet reached his full potential. His next advancement will depend on his ability to generate more plays independently while relying less on Larkin. If he can mix this additional depth with further production increases, a spot in Tier 3C next season — alongside players like Matt Boldy and Mat Barzal — is attainable. Wheeler’s Prospect Tiers suggest he has the potential for Tier 3B upside.
Regarding Seider, it would not be inaccurate to say his career is at a pivotal moment. His third season, judged by Net Rating, was considerably his worst. He has gone from a plus-9.8 rating to plus-4.3, and now down to plus-0.6.
It is essential — indeed, imperative — to note that Seider faced the toughest usage in the league, managing high competition levels, challenging teammates, and difficult zone starts. The fact that he managed to hold it together appreciably? That deserves recognition. Few defensemen could excel under such challenging conditions. Yet, even considering these challenges, Seider barely managed to stay afloat, and the player seen in Year 1 appeared capable of achieving far more than mere survival. Data tracked by Corey Sznajder indicated that he struggled to exit the puck cleanly, with a controlled exit rate plummeting to 28 percent, compared to around 60 percent in his first two seasons.
Soon, he must find a way to dominate his ice time — even if those minutes are less strenuous. Otherwise, it may be difficult to view him as anything beyond a top defenseman on a mediocre team. That is not the impression the Red Wings intended to convey. It is also not how the majority of the league seems to perceive him, even after the previous season. Ultimately, the outcomes will reveal the truth, as they often do.
The wild card
Can Simon Edvinsson make an immediate impact as a top-pair defenseman?
With only 25 NHL games under his belt, some uncertainty surrounds the promising defenseman Edvinsson. However, his development over the years has led to this moment, and he now appears ready to assume a permanent role. His growth earned him a spot at 29th in Scott Wheeler’s rankings of drafted prospects after he addressed weaknesses while playing in Grand Rapids and impressed towards the end of the season in Detroit.
Edvinsson was thrust into action during a critical phase of the Red Wings’ season. His game-changing offensive plays were instrumental in keeping the team’s hopes alive, showcasing his ability beneath the surface. During five-on-five play, Detroit experienced an uptick in their expected goal generation with Edvinsson on the ice,“`html
The strengths
The Red Wings belong to Larkin, who has established himself over the past three seasons as a reliable scorer, consistently averaging a point per game. This achievement stands out, particularly as Larkin often operates with little assistance from his teammates. However, the team’s winger depth is improving, along with the emergence of promising players. The pivotal question is how much Larkin can elevate his game now that he has additional support.
Larkin serves as the primary catalyst for Detroit, generating opportunities in the offensive zone while also facilitating puck movement both into and out of the zone. His contributions gain importance when paired with teammates who can convert those chances into goals. Last season, this synergy resulted in Detroit outscoring opponents 55-50 while Larkin was on the ice, marking the first occasion since his rookie year that he accomplished winning his minutes.
To consistently achieve this level of play will be crucial for Larkin’s advancement, particularly if he can supplement these performances with solid expected goal metrics. His active involvement across the rink is reflected in his plus-12 Net Rating, which aligns with the performance of an average top-line center.
However, reaching the status of a franchise center will require Larkin to elevate his game even further—an ambitious objective for a 28-year-old. The Red Wings currently check the box for a key position but not as definitively as a true top team. Larkin’s potential limits the overall ceiling of the team. As proficient as he is, for Detroit to become a regular contender, Larkin must match the performance level of centers on other competing teams. Presently, he falls short, and there seems to be no impending talent to challenge him for that role.
Nevertheless, this situation is not absolute, as the development of Raymond could significantly influence Larkin’s upward trajectory. Considering Larkin’s previous struggles with high-caliber linemates and evaluating his worth based on situational challenges, it might still be insufficient. Most franchise centers have a reliable wingman, and if Raymond can ascend to that role, it could be precisely what both need to reach cornerstone status for a contending team.
Raymond made significant strides last season, and while he may not yet be considered a “strength” compared to elite wingers, he is advancing towards that standard. His plus-7.6 Net Rating last season marked a substantial improvement from his sophomore slump, which saw him dip to minus-2.4. This improvement was“`html
defense, either. Although Vladimir Tarasenko may not be the player he once was, he should provide an offensive improvement over David Perron. Additionally, homegrown talents like Michael Rasmussen and Jonatan Berggren are expected to rebound after their inconsistent performances during the 2023-24 season.
While it’s not a lineup of superstars, the wingers appear to be solid and should represent Detroit’s strongest positional area.
The Red Wings seem to have an impressive third defensive pairing in the underrated Erik Gustafsson and Olli Määttä. This pair is likely to excel during sheltered minutes and recover some value from what is set to be Detroit’s most significant challenge this season: their other defensemen.
The weaknesses
The primary concern for the Red Wings regarding their playoff aspirations is the performance of their top four defensemen, who commence the season with a combined Net Rating of minus-10. In contrast, the league average is plus-nine, and playoff teams typically hover around plus-14. This shortfall nearly accounts for the disparity that positions Detroit as a long shot for the playoffs.
At the forefront is Seider, Detroit’s only demonstrably above-average defender, who is currently rated as a reliable No. 2. The pressure on Seider in this role is immense, yet even taking that into consideration, his performance has not signaled franchise-level defense since his rookie campaign, nor has he solidified himself as an elite or even a top defenseman.
This season, the expectations will only rise due to the talent surrounding him, especially with Jake Walman no longer in the lineup. Although Walman was not ideally suited for the top pair, he was at least a preferable choice compared to Ben Chiarot or Määttä. Pairing Chiarot with Seider feels akin to removing the tires from a Mustang and hoping it still functions. Few players have consistently hindered results as much as Chiarot in recent seasons, largely because he struggles to defend his blue line, has difficulty retrieving pucks, and fails to clear them effectively.
Detroit’s outlook hinges largely on Seider’s potential. The skills are clearly present for him to excel; he just hasn’t fully realized his capabilities yet—much of that being influenced by his surrounding environment. If Seider can elevate his game this season, it could significantly enhance Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs; however, this scenario seems less likely based on his recent outputs.
Edvinsson could be a game changer, especially if he has a year as transformative as Seider’s rookie season. At the very least, Edvinsson enters this year with the potential to be a top-four defenseman—an improvement over the current roster, and he might emerge as the team’s second-best defender from the outset. The Red Wings will require even more from him if they hope to achieve their goals.
Another sizable worry for Detroit is their costly middle-six center duo of J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, who are both playing beyond their ideal roles. While they posted reasonable scoring rates at even strength, their inflated on-ice shooting percentage of 11.2 percent—leading the team—raises concerns about regression, especially since their overall play leaves much to be desired.
Having a competent second-line center to support Larkin would undoubtedly strengthen this forward group considerably. Currently, Detroit’s attempts to find interim solutions have not produced results in terms of overall team effectiveness.
Defense and center are arguably the two most crucial positions, and in both areas, Detroit appears outmatched compared to other playoff-bound teams. Strong goaltending might help to mask these deficiencies, but it seems unlikely they would catch lightning in
Rather than experiencing a complete resurgence, his situation appears to be more of a temporary improvement. Historical performance suggests he may be an average goaltender at best, and concerns about age-related decline also play a role in his current market value. Transitioning from the Kings’ robust defense to this team could create a significant adjustment period that may prove challenging for Talbot as well. He does not seem to represent a substantial upgrade over Alex Lyon.
Perhaps everything aligns for the Red Wings, with their core players advancing towards elite status, the defensive lineup remaining strong, and the goaltending demonstrating consistency. Nonetheless, as has been the trend over recent years, this season presents numerous uncertainties, where many factors must align for success. The odds are stacked against them.
Best-case scenario
Raymond and Seider emerge alongside Larkin as key game-changers, Edvinsson proves his worth, the veteran players perform reliably, the goaltending surprises everyone, and the Red Wings sail smoothly into the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario
This prediction materializes completely, indicating that the Red Wings have spent the last decade building a team that merely participates rather than competes effectively.
Conclusion
After a notably extended period of success in modern North American sports, Red Wings fans are now facing eight years without a playoff series victory. While the current roster showcases some promising elements for both the present and future, there is ample reason to believe that the wait for a return to playoff glory will persist.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Simon Edvinsson: Dave Reginek / NHLI via Getty Images)
Assessing the Detroit Red Wings: Are They Ready to Break Their Playoff Drought?
Overview of the Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings, one of the most storied franchises in NHL history, have a rich legacy that spans over 97 seasons. With a total of 64 playoff appearances, the team has experienced both triumphant victories and heartbreaking defeats. However, since their last playoff appearance in 2016, the Red Wings have faced a significant playoff drought that fans are eager to see come to an end.
Understanding the Playoff Drought
Historical Context
The last time the Red Wings made the playoffs was in 2016, where they were eliminated in the first round. This marked the beginning of a challenging period for the franchise, which has seen a combination of rebuilding efforts and roster changes aimed at returning to competitiveness.
- Total Playoff Appearances: 64
- Last Playoff Entry: 2016
- Recent Performance: Struggles in subsequent seasons have left fans questioning the team’s direction.
Current State of the Team
As of the 2024 season, the Red Wings are in a transitional phase. With a mix of young talent and veteran players, the team is building a roster that aims to reclaim its place in the playoffs. Key players and new acquisitions will be crucial in determining their success this season.
Key Players to Watch
Identifying the right players who can make a significant impact is essential for the Red Wings’ playoff aspirations. Here’s a look at some key players who could lead the charge:
| Player | Position | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | Center | 75 Points (2023) |
| Moritz Seider | Defenseman | 30 Assists (2023) |
| Lucas Raymond | Right Wing | 60 Points (2023) |
Coaching and Management Changes
Leadership plays a pivotal role in the success of a hockey team. The Red Wings have undergone several changes in coaching and management, aiming to instill a winning culture. The current coaching staff, led by Coach Derek Lalonde, emphasizes a strong defensive strategy combined with offensive creativity.
- Coaching Philosophy: Focus on player development and adaptability.
- Management Goals: Build a team capable of consistent playoff contention.
Strengths of the Current Roster
The Red Wings possess several strengths that could contribute to a successful season:
- Young Talent: The influx of talented young players has brought fresh energy to the team.
- Depth Scoring: A balanced roster capable of scoring from various lines.
- Defensive Improvements: Strategic acquisitions have bolstered the defensive core.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the promising aspects of the roster, several challenges could hinder the Red Wings’ playoff aspirations:
- Inconsistent Performance: Maintaining a high level of performance throughout the season will be critical.
- Injury Concerns: The potential for injuries among key players poses a significant risk.
- Strong Competition: The Eastern Conference is highly competitive, making playoff qualification difficult.
Fan Engagement and Support
Fan support is a vital component for any sports team. The Red Wings’ dedicated fanbase has remained loyal during tough times, and their engagement can influence team morale.
- Community Events: The team actively engages with fans through various community initiatives.
- Social Media Presence: Engaging with fans on platforms like Twitter and Instagram keeps excitement alive.
Comparative Analysis with Other Teams
When assessing the Red Wings’ potential to break their playoff drought, it’s insightful to compare them with other teams in a similar position. Teams that have successfully transitioned from rebuilding to playoff contenders share some common traits:
| Team | Last Playoff Appearance | Transition Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 2021 | Focused on youth development and strategic trades. |
| Los Angeles Kings | 2018 | Balanced roster with veteran leadership and young talent. |
| New Jersey Devils | 2018 | Aggressive drafting and player development. |
Conclusion: The Path Forward
the Detroit Red Wings have the potential to break their playoff drought through a combination of talented players, strategic coaching, and strong fan support. While challenges remain, focusing on growth and consistency could lead to a successful season. As the 2024 NHL season unfolds, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if the Red Wings can finally return to the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.
This article is structured to provide a comprehensive view of the Detroit Red Wings’ current situation and their prospects for breaking their playoff drought. The use of headings, bullet points, and tables enhances readability and engagement, while incorporating relevant keywords for SEO optimization.
