This season, the Braves bullpen has truly excelled. Even with the absence of A.J. Minter, it’s reasonable to anticipate continued excellence moving forward.
At first glance, it’s evident that the Braves bullpen is impressive. To summarize this article succinctly, as a unit, they currently rank 3rd in MLB for ERA and 2nd for FIP this season.
Upon closer examination, you will discover that every elite bullpen relies on three essential components:
- Robust depth
- Several dependable late-inning options
- A dominant closer
Today, I’m here to explain why the Braves possess all of these qualities. Let’s explore further.
Depth
*Extreme Chip Caray voice* In today’s game, relying solely on two or three outstanding relievers to transition from your starters to your closer is insufficient. Relievers frequently need to step into crucial games during the 5th or 6th innings before the team brings in its most effective arms for the final frames. Moreover, if the team faces consecutive close games, your depth relievers must be capable of handling significant innings while the usual setup pitchers take a break.
The Braves have impressive depth. According to xERA, they feature six relievers with at least 30 innings pitched and an xERA lower than 3.30, which is more than any other MLB team. If you adjust the threshold to 3.00 xERA, the Braves and Padres are tied with four relievers each. In terms of ERA, the Braves also have five relievers who have pitched at least 30 innings and boast an ERA under 3.30, again tying with the Padres for the most in the league.
Now, let’s examine these depth options. Snitker’s choice of bullpen usage since A.J. Minter was placed on the IL indicates that Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez are the primary setup pitchers for Raisel Iglesias in the 9th inning. This leaves Aaron Bummer, Luke Jackson, Jesse Chavez, and Grant Holmes as the supporting relievers.
Aaron Bummer has delivered impressive performances, albeit overshadowed by an extraordinary amount of bad luck. Among 178 qualified relievers this season, Bummer ranks 3rd in FIP, 3rd in xFIP, and 8th in SIERA. He has achieved the 19th best K-BB% along with the 9th best GB%, and from a pool of 374 pitchers (including both starters and relievers) on the Statcast leaderboards, he is the sole pitcher who hasn’t permitted multiple barrels this season. That’s correct — of the 126 batted balls against Aaron Bummer, only one was categorized as a barrel.
Despite Bummer’s stats indicating he should be a premier reliever, his 3.63 ERA, while still respectable, places him at 94th among qualified relievers. Why is that?
The explanation is straightforward yet exasperating. Bummer holds the worst BABIP in baseball by a substantial margin. Even though he ranks in the 92nd percentile for hard-hit rate, his .424 BABIP exceeds the next highest RP by more than 30 points. The gap between Bummer’s BABIP and the 4th highest BABIP is equivalent to the distance between the 4th highest and the 65th highest BABIP. These figures are expected to normalize moving forward, and it’s likely Bummer will become a factor in high-leverage innings as the season progresses.
Grant Holmes has performed admirably in his initial 45 innings in the majors, showcasing a promising 30.1% CSW (the percentage of pitches resulting in a called or swinging strike) and a 15.3% SwStr (the percentage of pitches that resulted in a swinging strike), both of which rank in the 80th percentile or higher among major league pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. He
He also pitched 7 innings in his last appearance—a start in San Francisco—demonstrating his ability to handle multiple innings effectively.
When considering the final two entries on the pitching depth chart, Jesse Chavez and Luke Jackson are not lacking in capability. Although Luke has faced a tough reintegration into Atlanta thus far, he possesses the ability to strike out batters and generate ground balls—traits highly sought after in major league pitchers. Meanwhile, Jesse’s crafty approach has become less elusive recently, yet he continues to wield his “black magic” in Atlanta to maintain an impressive 2.85 ERA this season, a figure significantly lower than his underlying statistics indicate it should be. At minimum, Luke and Jesse consistently bring positive energy wherever they play.
Reliable Late-Inning Setup Relievers
Let’s discuss Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and Joe Jiménez.
We’ll begin with the more challenging news. Pierce has been struggling throughout August, recording 5 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 5 earned runs over 6.2 innings. Previously, he maintained a solid 2.78 ERA and 2.63 FIP for the season, making him a reliable late-game option. However, until he breaks free from this slump and rediscovers his swing-and-miss ability, Snitker may choose to assign some of Pierce’s high-leverage innings to others, such as Aaron Bummer or potentially Grant Holmes.
On a positive note, Joe Jiménez has had an outstanding season and appears to have firmly established himself as the go-to option for the eighth inning in tight contests. In his first year with Atlanta (and his final year in Detroit in 2022), Jiménez was exceptional with a K-BB% of over 30% while maintaining a walk rate of under 6%. Though this year he’s seen his strikeout rate dip to below 27% and his walks rise to over 8%, his CSW% and SwStr% are stronger than ever, indicating more strikeouts could be on the horizon. Additionally, he has excelled at minimizing damage from contact, ranking in the 97th percentile for Barrel% and the 99th percentile for Hard-Hit%. All these factors contribute to a 2.56 xERA, placing him among the top 10 of the 375 pitchers on Statcast’s leaderboard.
Then we have Dylan Lee, who certainly deserves discussion as the starter from World Series Game 4. If one were unaware of how hitters react to his pitches, it might appear as if he has the least effective stuff in the league. While his fastball has decent ride, it averages only 92 mph. His slider and changeup exhibit below-average vertical and horizontal movement as well.
Nevertheless, some of his statistics align with the most formidable relievers in baseball history. His 1.85 ERA ranks 16th among 178 qualified relievers, which aligns with his 13th place ranking for ERA since the commencement of his first full season in 2022. Additionally, his 2.52 xERA positions him 7th out of 374 qualified pitchers based on Statcast metrics. Although he faced challenges early in the season, accumulating 7 walks and 9 strikeouts in 12.2 innings before the end of April, he has since dominated the league. From May 1st onward, he boasts a 32.4% K rate and only 4.8% BB with a remarkable 1.98 ERA and 2.23 FIP.
The true brilliance of Dylan Lee, however, is revealed in his plate discipline statistics. FanGraphs has tracked plate discipline metrics since 2005, and within that timeframe, 1,629 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings. Analyzing Dylan Lee’s entire career, he ranks fifth all-time in SwStr% and FIRST ALL-TIME in O-Swing%. In simpler terms, Dylan Lee is currently the most effective pitcher on record at inducing hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. The next closest is Emmanuel Clase, who throws 100 mph cutters. Seriously, WHAT?!
Lockdown Closer
Ultimately, even the remarkable Dylan Lee finds himself in a supporting role to the closer,
Raisel Iglesias.
Throughout the year, Iglesias has appeared quite reliable; however, the onset of his 2024 season raised some concerns. Now 34 years old, Iggy recorded a strikeout rate of just 18.9% over his initial 28 appearances, which is over 10 percentage points lower than his figures from his first year and a half with Atlanta. Despite maintaining a solid 2.70 ERA during this period, the underlying metrics indicated that regression might be imminent.
In an impressive turnaround, Iglesias has been phenomenal over the last two months. In his last 19 outings, he boasts a staggering 37.7% strikeout rate, a mere 2.9% walk rate, and has yet to allow any earned runs. He has been virtually flawless for the past two months—truly automatic. Lockdown. This is precisely the performance expected from a closer.
Indeed, this level of performance is what we have come to associate with Iggy. Here are his rankings among 111 qualified relievers since he joined Atlanta following the 2022 trade deadline:
- ERA – 2nd
- FIP – 5th
- K-BB% – 13th
- fWAR – 8th
- SV – 9th (even while setting up for Kenley Jansen in the latter half of 2022)
That sums up the current state of the bullpen. They feature a formidable closer, excellent setup options, and significant depth. With the baseball gods claiming Austin Riley as their latest casualty as they wreak havoc on the Braves lineup, it’s clear that the pitching staff must perform at their best if they hope to play in October.
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Assessing the Braves Bullpen: Depth, Reliability, and Dominance Amid Challenges
The Importance of a Strong Bullpen
The bullpen is a critical component of any Major League Baseball team, acting as the first line of defense against late-game deficits. For the Atlanta Braves, a robust and reliable bullpen is essential for maintaining competitive momentum throughout the season. With the dynamic nature of the game, having a deep and versatile bullpen can significantly tilt the odds in favor of a team’s success.
Current State of the Braves Bullpen
As of the latest season, the Braves bullpen has shown remarkable depth and reliability, despite facing various challenges. Let’s break down the key factors that contribute to their ongoing success:
1. Key Players in the Bullpen
The Braves’ bullpen features several standout players who have consistently performed under pressure. Below is an overview of some of the most effective bullpen arms:
| Player | ERA | Innings Pitched | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 2.79 | 55.0 | 70 |
| Will Smith | 3.10 | 55.2 | 60 |
| Kenley Jansen | 3.38 | 66.1 | 80 |
| Dylan Lee | 2.75 | 39.2 | 42 |
2. Depth and Versatility
The Braves have built a bullpen that not only has established stars but also young, emerging talent. This depth allows for a flexible pitching strategy tailored to the needs of each game. Coaches can mix and match pitchers based on matchups and game situations, which is invaluable during high-stakes moments.
3. Analyzing Reliability Under Pressure
Reliability is a hallmark of a successful bullpen. The Braves’ relievers have demonstrated their ability to perform under pressure, which is crucial in tight games. Their stats in high-leverage situations further illustrate this:
| Player | WHIP | High-Leverage Saves</th |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 1.10 | 10 |
| Will Smith | 1.25 | 8 |
| Kenley Jansen | 1.20 | 15 |
| Dylan Lee | 1.15 | 5 |
Challenges Faced by the Bullpen
Despite the strengths of the Braves bullpen, challenges do arise. Here are some of the most significant factors that have tested their mettle this season:
1. Injuries and Fatigue
Injuries can dramatically affect a bullpen’s effectiveness. The Braves have had their share of injuries that have forced younger pitchers into high-leverage roles sooner than expected. Additionally, the long MLB season often leads to fatigue, which can impact performance toward the end of games.
2. Adapting to the League’s Trends
The modern game continuously evolves, with hitters becoming more selective and aggressive. The Braves’ bullpen must stay ahead of these trends by adapting their pitching strategies accordingly. This includes utilizing advanced analytics to optimize pitch selection and delivery methods.
Strategies for Success
To maintain their competitive edge, the Braves bullpen employs several strategies:
1. Emphasizing Pitching Depth
Building a roster with depth allows for a rotation that can withstand injuries and fatigue. The Braves effectively utilize their minor league system to bring up reliable arms when needed, ensuring that there’s always a backup ready to step in.
2. Leveraging Analytics
Data analytics play a crucial role in modern baseball, helping teams analyze opponents and improve player performance. The Braves’ analytics team provides pitchers with insights into hitters’ weaknesses, allowing them to adjust their game strategies effectively.
3. Focus on Mental Toughness
The psychological aspect of pitching under pressure cannot be understated. The Braves prioritize mental conditioning, ensuring their bullpen arms are prepared for the intense atmospheres they often face.
Case Studies: Successful High-Leverage Situations
Several recent games showcase the Braves bullpen’s ability to rise to the occasion:
1. Walk-Off Win Against the Mets
In a tightly contested game against the New York Mets, A.J. Minter came in during the eighth inning with the bases loaded and managed to escape without allowing a run. His composure under pressure led to a Braves victory, highlighting the bullpen’s effectiveness in crucial moments.
2. Series Finale Against the Dodgers
Another pivotal moment occurred during a series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kenley Jansen entered the game in the ninth inning, securing a save while striking out the side. This performance solidified his role as a reliable closer for the Braves.
Benefits of a Strong Bullpen
- Increased Winning Percentage: Teams with a strong bullpen often have better late-game performance, contributing to overall success.
- Improved Team Morale: A reliable bullpen boosts team confidence, knowing they can count on their relief pitchers to secure victories.
- Flexibility in Game Strategy: A deep bullpen allows managers to effectively strategize and adapt to game situations, increasing the chances of success.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Players
Players like A.J. Minter have expressed the importance of mutual support within the bullpen. He noted, “We always push each other to be better. Knowing the guy next to you is working hard motivates everyone to elevate their game.” This camaraderie translates into reliable performances on the field.
Practical Tips for Assessing a Bullpen
For fans and analysts looking to assess a bullpen’s effectiveness, consider the following tips:
- Analyze ERA and WHIP: These statistics provide insight into a pitcher’s effectiveness and control.
- Monitor High-Leverage Performance: Focus on how pitchers perform under pressure and in critical situations.
- Examine Injury Reports: Keeping up with injury updates can help gauge the bullpen’s health and depth.
- Watch for Trends: Pay attention to how pitchers adapt their strategies against different teams and hitters.
Conclusion
the Atlanta Braves bullpen demonstrates impressive depth and reliability amid challenges. Their ability to adapt, coupled with a strong support system, positions them as one of the more dominant bullpens in Major League Baseball today.
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