Even back in late May, when the Orioles were performing at a pace reminiscent of last year, the team often endured frustrating losses that led to doubts about their ability to replicate the success of the previous season’s 101-61 record.
I reflected on this issue at the time, examining the trajectories of Dan Duquette’s playoff teams and what led to their following season’s disappointments. By the end of May, the 2024 Orioles appeared distinct from those past letdowns, despite the irritation of their losing streak finally ending against the then-underperforming Cardinals.
Now, as August transitions into September, the scenario has changed. The 2024 team has notably dropped off its earlier pace. Through 133 games, the 2023 team held a record of 83-50. Currently, the Orioles find themselves six games behind that pace, and if their winning percentage continues for the remainder of the season, they would end up seven games short of last year’s performance.
Unlike the 2013, 2015, and 2017 squads I discussed months ago—teams that consistently disappointed without making the postseason—the 2024 Orioles benefit from the existence of a third wild card spot. Despite various issues this year, their chances of at least qualifying remain strong, with both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs assigning over a 99% probability of making the playoffs. Even if the wild card situation featured just two spots, they still hold a 4.5-game advantage. Additionally, they are close to winning the division, trailing the Yankees by only a game.
Starting Rotation Health
The 2023 Orioles demonstrated remarkable stability in their starting rotation, making it easy to overlook. Three pitchers made at least 30 starts, while two others contributed 20 and 23 starts each.
Among the pitchers who began the season in the rotation, the only stint on the injured list was when Kyle Bradish was hit by a line drive on his foot during his first start, resulting in minimal missed time. He is one of the three who managed at least 30 starts. All other absences from the rotation were due to performance issues rather than injury.
This season, however, has been more tumultuous. The plans outlined after the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes unraveled almost immediately in spring training when Mike Elias addressed offseason injury setbacks for both Bradish and John Means, who each missed the start of the season and later required elbow surgeries after returning. Tyler Wells also underwent surgery after only a few starts.
Currently, the only pitcher with potential to achieve 30 or more starts is Burnes. This has prompted significant reshuffling within the team. The silver lining is that they have generally managed to navigate this disorder well. Their overall rotation ERA has improved from 4.14 last year (11th in MLB) to 3.87 this year (9th in MLB), largely reflecting the impact of having Burnes instead of Kyle Gibson as a veteran innings eater. The 2024 Orioles have been particularly fortunate to acquire Albert Suárez.
One-Run Games: The Back End of the Bullpen
In 2023, the Orioles recorded a 30-16 record in one-run games. Thus far in the 2024 season, their performance in these tight contests stands at 14-16. They equalized last year’s total for one-run losses with last Wednesday’s walk-off defeat against the Mets.
During the 2023 season, the Orioles suffered only 21 losses attributed to relief pitchers, the fewest of any MLB team. They also boasted the fifth-best reliever ERA at 3.55. In contrast, the 2024 Orioles have already faced 19 losses from their bullpen, tying for the eighth-fewest losses across MLB, while their bullpen ERA of 4.10 ranks them 19th.
It’s simple to highlight the contrast between Félix Bautista (1.48 ERA, 0.918 FIP) and Craig Kimbrel (3.86 ERA, 1.221 WHIP), particularly given Kimbrel’s recent struggles that have forced the unreliable Seranthony Domínguez into the closer position. This contrast also extends to comparisons between 2023 Yennier Cano and 2024 Cano, 2023 Bryan Baker and 2024 Baker, as well as the unfortunate circumstances surrounding Jacob Webb, who, despite a lower ERA and WHIP than last year, has suffered five losses. This brief list does not encompass everything.
One-run games: Hitting with RISP
Another aspect contributing to the losses in tight games is the Orioles’ lack of favorable outcomes when batting with runners in scoring position (RISP), which is crucial for staging late-game comebacks. The 2023 Orioles concluded the season with a .287/.356/.481 batting line from a total of 1554 plate appearances. This year’s team is projected to have approximately 70 fewer RISP opportunities and when those chances arise, they’re hitting only .254, resulting in significantly fewer doubles, home runs, and walks. this marks an 85-point decline in OPS with RISP.
The issue for the Orioles is not their overall run production. They have scored the third-highest number of runs in MLB, totaling 661. Last year, the Orioles ranked 7th in MLB with 807 runs scored. As a team, they’re performing better this season, even enhancing their OPS, while league-wide offensive numbers have seen a considerable drop.
Lack of month-to-month consistency
The 2023 Orioles never experienced a record of .500 or worse in any complete calendar month, with June being their weakest month at 13-11. In contrast, there were four separate months where their winning percentage reached .600 or higher.
Conversely, the 2024 team has struggled to replicate this success. As everyone is aware, the Orioles managed a 12-13 record in July, leaving them needing to win three of their last four games this month to finish August above .500. The team started strong, winning over 60 percent of their games in both April and May, but has yet to achieve a third successful month.
There’s limited confidence in the O’s turning things around come September, although some of their currently injured players are expected to return by the end of next month. Zach Eflin is anticipated to be back after a minimum IL stint, and Ryan Mountcastle is expected to rejoin soon. Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg should also return before the season concludes. Additionally, Webb is expected back, though it remains to be seen how impactful that will be.
Scattered power outages
the Orioles are a formidable home run-hitting team. Ryan O’Hearn’s home run last night marked the team’s 200th of the season, and Ramón Urías followed with another to take the lead, which they maintained for the win. Their total of 201 home runs places them second in MLB, trailing only the Yankees, and they outpace the third-place Dodgers by more than 20 home runs.
The Baltimore Banner’s Paul Mancano noted on Twitter before last night’s game that the Orioles have a record of 12-19 when they do not hit a home run, and 12-27 when they manage only one. This statistic is concerning, resulting in a cumulative record of 24-46 under these circumstances. Conversely, the Orioles boast an impressive 53-10 record when hitting two or more home runs.
Given this information, it is essential for them to maintain their home run production. However, one challenge they face is that several players who could contribute significantly have been struggling.
Players who were expected to provide more power are failing to do so. O’Hearn’s home run last night marked only his second since the All-Star break. Similarly, Adley Rutschman has hit just two during this period as well. Mountcastle managed to hit only one, while newcomer Eloy Jiménez has yet to hit a home run as an Oriole.
**
Following their surprising 101-win season from the previous year, it was quite likely that the Orioles would present a more impressive team on paper this season yet accomplish fewer wins than the year prior. They had a great season, but luck was also on their side. Unless an extraordinary turnaround occurs in September, the collection of various factors—large and small—has contributed to a projected decline of seven wins based on their current performance. The 2024 Orioles are simply not experiencing the same level of fortune.
However, this does not imply that luck is entirely absent from the Orioles’ situation. One favorable aspect for the O’s is the lack of elite teams in the league. No team is maintaining a winning percentage of .600 or higher. While the problems previously mentioned remain, the Orioles find themselves just a game away from the division lead. With some improvement in their performance over the final month of the season, they could reclaim that top position. Ultimately, they must enhance their play beyond the .500 record they have maintained since mid-June.
# Assessing the 2024 Orioles: Challenges, Changes, and the Quest for a Playoff Spot
## Overview of the 2024 Season
The Baltimore Orioles enter the 2024 season with high hopes and significant challenges. After a promising campaign in 2023 that saw them make strides in the competitive American League East, the focus now shifts to building on that success. This article will delve into the key changes the team has made, the challenges they face, and their quest for a playoff spot.
## Key Changes in the Roster
### Offseason Acquisitions
The Orioles made strategic moves during the offseason to bolster their roster. Here are some notable signings and trades:
– **[Free Agent Signings]**: The addition of experienced players like **[Player Name]** (e.g., a veteran pitcher or infielder) aims to provide leadership and stability.
– **[Traded Players]**: The trade for **[Player Name]** has addressed the gaps in the lineup, particularly in the outfield or bullpen, enhancing the team’s overall performance.
– **[Young Talent Promotion]**: The promotion of top prospects from the minor leagues, such as **[Player Name]**, is expected to inject fresh energy and skill into the lineup.
### Coaching Staff Changes
– **[New Coaching Philosophy]**: The Orioles have revamped their coaching staff, bringing in a new hitting coach known for innovative techniques that could optimize player performance.
– **[Focus on Player Development]**: A renewed commitment to player development, particularly for younger athletes, emphasizes cultivating homegrown talent.
## Challenges Ahead
### Tough Division Rivalries
The American League East is notoriously competitive. The Orioles will face daunting challenges from established powerhouses like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Key challenges include:
– **[Consistent Performance Against Rivals]**: The need to secure wins in head-to-head matchups against division rivals is crucial for playoff aspirations.
– **[Navigating Intense Schedules]**: A packed schedule filled with travel and back-to-back games can test the team’s resilience and depth.
### Injury Management
Injuries can derail any season. The Orioles must prioritize:
– **[Injury Prevention Programs]**: Implementing comprehensive fitness regimes to minimize injuries.
– **[Depth in the Roster]**: Ensuring that backup players can step up when starters are sidelined.
### Pitching Depth
Although the Orioles have seen improvements in their pitching staff, depth remains a concern. The focus should be on:
– **[Developing Young Pitchers]**: Giving opportunities to young arms to gain experience at the major league level.
– **[Acquiring a Proven Starter]**: Pursuing trades for veteran pitchers who can guide the younger staff.
## Strategies for Success
### Emphasizing Analytics
As baseball evolves, the use of analytics has become crucial. The Orioles can leverage data-driven insights to:
– **[Improve Decision-Making]**: Use advanced stats to inform lineups and in-game strategies.
– **[Player Performance Analysis]**: Regularly assess player metrics to enhance individual and team performance.
### Fostering Team Chemistry
A cohesive team is often more successful. Strategies include:
– **[Building Relationships Off the Field]**: Encouraging team-building activities that foster trust and camaraderie among players.
– **[Promoting a Positive Culture]**: Instilling a culture of support and motivation within the clubhouse.
## Benefits of a Successful 2024 Season
Achieving a playoff spot has numerous benefits, including:
– **[Increased Fan Engagement]**: A successful season can boost attendance and foster a stronger fan base.
– **[Financial Gains]**: Playoff games generate significant revenue, allowing the team to invest further in talent.
– **[Attracting Free Agents]**: A competitive team becomes a more appealing destination for top-tier free agents.
## Case Study: Recent Successes
### 2023 Season Recap
The 2023 season served as a proving ground for the Orioles, showcasing their potential. Highlights include:
– **[Breakout Players]**: Players like **[Player Name]** emerged as stars, contributing significantly to the team’s success.
– **[Critical Wins]**: Memorable victories against playoff contenders demonstrated the team’s capability.
### Lessons Learned
The team’s experience in 2023 can inform their approach in 2024. Key lessons include:
– **[Adapting to Pressure]**: Learning to perform under high-stress situations is vital for playoff success.
- **[Consistency is Key]**: Striving for consistency in performance can lead to sustained success.
## First-Hand Experience with the Orioles
As a long-time fan and observer of the Orioles, witnessing their transformation has been exciting. The blend of experienced players and young talent creates a dynamic atmosphere, reminiscent of the team’s glory days. Engaging in discussions with fellow fans highlights a growing optimism surrounding the team’s potential.
## Practical Tips for Fans
For fans looking to support the Orioles in 2024, consider the following:
– **[Attend Home Games]**: Your presence can make a difference in the team’s morale.
– **[Follow the Team on Social Media]**: Stay updated with the latest news, player stats, and game highlights.
– **[Participate in Fan Events]**: Engage in community activities and events to build a stronger connection with the team.
## Conclusion
The 2024 season presents a pivotal moment for the Baltimore Orioles. With strategic changes, a focus on player development, and an unwavering commitment to overcoming challenges, the Orioles aim for a coveted playoff spot. As fans rally behind the team, the energy and excitement surrounding the Orioles’ journey will undoubtedly grow, making this season one to watch.
## Quick Facts about the 2024 Orioles
| Fact | Detail |
|---|---|
| 2023 Record | 89-73 |
| Key Acquisitions | Player X, Player Y |
| Top Prospects | Player A, Player B |
| Opening Day Opponent | New York Yankees |
This comprehensive assessment of the 2024 Orioles encapsulates the excitement and challenges ahead. By leveraging their strengths and addressing weaknesses, the team is on a hopeful quest for playoff contention.
