By Jesse Granger, Sean McIndoe and Scott Wheeler
We’ve reached the third and final installment of our examination into one question for each of the 32 NHL teams: How confident should they be about their goaltending, both currently and for the future?
Part 1 reviewed the bottom 10 teams, available here. Next, we discussed the teams in the middle tier, which you can find here. Today, we turn our focus to the top 10.
Firstly, a brief reminder on how this analysis is structured:
Each of the 32 teams has been rated in three categories:
Current goaltending: This measures how effective their goaltending is at the NHL level right now and its potential over the next three years. This assessment considers the two goalies expected to start the 2024-25 season, along with anyone else in the system projected to play. The Athletic‘s goaltending expert, Jesse Granger, is responsible for this section.
Future prospects: This part evaluates each team’s goaltenders in the system who have not yet solidified their place as full-time NHL players, focusing on their ceiling and potential. Prospect authority Scott Wheeler provides insights here.
It’s important to note that there can be overlap between the first two categories. For instance, Yaroslav Askarov is a prospect but is likely to see significant NHL action within the next three years. On the other hand, Jake Oettinger serves as the Stars’ current starter and, at 25 years old, represents their future as well. This is acceptable, as Jesse and Scott assess these players from different angles: Jesse considers their present performance, while Scott evaluates their potential and longevity at their peak.
Cap and contracts: This examines salary figures and the duration of contracts. Ideally, a team secures their effective goaltenders at a fair price and term. In a hard-cap league, a valuable player with a burdensome contract can be detrimental, making contract structure essential. Speculation is necessary, as several key players are in need of new contracts. For example, while Shesterkin has not yet signed an extension with the Rangers, it does not imply he will become a UFA in 2025. This section’s focus is on maximizing the value from good players for as long as possible, not merely achieving the lowest cap hit. Sean McIndoe oversees this portion with cap information sourced from PuckPedia.
Each team received a rank from 1 to 32 in each category. These scores were then weighted: “current goaltending” was assigned a weight of 1.0, while “future prospects” received 0.75 to acknowledge the challenges of forecasting far into the future. The “Cap and contracts” category was weighted at 0.5; although important, history indicates that there are mechanisms to escape poor contracts, albeit with some difficulty.
Congratulations if you have been following this series and have yet to see your team featured. Now, it’s time for the top 10.
Current: 13
Granger: After acquiring veterans Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, the Devils boast a competent goalie duo for the immediate future. Both goalies will turn 34 before the season kicks off, potentially limiting their longevity. However, Markstrom’s style aligns well with New Jersey’s high-paced gameplay. Furthermore, while 23-year-old Nico Daws has not made a significant impact in the NHL yet, he still possesses the potential to evolve into a starter down the line.
Future: 17
Wheeler: I was hoping to see better statistics from Mikhail Yegorov to justify a second-round rating, but he is an exceptional individual and a talented athlete, making a notable impression in the 2024 class. Nico Daws appears to have settled into the role of a 2/3 goalie, which still holds value. Additionally, although I have historically undervalued Tyler Brennan, I find Jakub Malek promising; he is establishing a commendable track record in Finland and plans to enter the AHL after the upcoming season.
Cap: 8
McIndoe: Can I classify them as “TBD”? The Rangers present a unique challenge in this category, as Shesterkin is poised to transition from being one of the league’s best bargains to something significantly different. Most expect him to command the highest salary of any goalie, possibly exceeding those of Carey Price and Sergei Bobrovsky. While that may not result in a bad contract per se, it does come with considerable risk, diminishing their chances of deriving excess value from such a deal. For now, his one-year contract at $5.67 million represents an outstanding value.
Bottom line: The Rangers’ future largely depends on how long Shesterkin can maintain his elite level of play and at what financial cost.
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Sergei Bobrovsky’s exceptional work ethic has preserved his athleticism into his mid-to-late 30s. (Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
Current: 9
Granger: Bobrovsky’s resurgence has propelled the Panthers to consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances, altering the entire landscape of the goalie position. Approaching 36 before the next season commences, his remarkable work ethic continues to sustain his athleticism in his mid-to-late 30s, and his playoff performance indicates he hasn’t yet lost a step. With the promising potential of Spencer Knight—who is still only 23—Florida checks numerous boxes for both the present and the future.
Future: 10
Wheeler: Although Knight has only 57 games of NHL experience and a $4.5 million contract, he remains younger than some goalies typically regarded as prospects and still has significant 1A/1B potential, despite the struggles of recent years. Behind him, the Panthers have depth, albeit primarily surrounded by uncertainties. Cooper Black and Olof Glifford possess size but require considerable development. Denis Gabdrakhmanov performed well last year on a struggling MHL team but remains a question mark. I personally view Kirill Gerasimyuk as the most promising option behind Knight, but he will turn 21 at the end of August and has yet to play in the KHL.
Cap: 24
McIndoe: In theory, you typically receive value equal to your expenditure. The Panthers have secured Cup-caliber goaltending from Bobrovsky, while compensating at a premium for it. With a cap hit of $10 million, he represents the highest expense among active goalies—at least until Shesterkin signs an extension. This financial burden complicates the contract’s overall value, yet recently it has been adequate and only has two years remaining. Knight’s $4.5 million deal is also steep.
Bottom line: They are receiving commendable goaltending but likely at an excessive cost; nevertheless, flags fly forever.
Current: 5
Granger: The exceptional goalie duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark had to conclude eventually due to the pesky salary cap, and Swayman’s rise over the past two years has instilled confidence in the Bruins to trade the 2023 Vezina winner. At 25, Swayman is five years younger than Ullmark, and acquiring Joonas Korpisalo in the deal provides Boston with a solid (if somewhat diminished) tandem for the forthcoming years. Few organizations have developed goalies as efficiently, making it reasonable to expect Boston to continue flourishing in this regard.
Future: 15
Wheeler: Swayman is crucial to the team’s success, but the presence of a 25-year-old goalie of his stature significantly enhances their prospects. Philip Svedeback from Providence may also prove to be a valuable asset as he is the only option behind Swayman.
Cap: 22
McIndoe: An extension for Swayman is inevitable; however, the negotiation process has been far from smooth. He won’t come inexpensively, but as a restricted free agent (RFA), he likely lacks the leverage to compel the Bruins into a regrettable situation. On the other hand, the Korpisalo contract, extending for four more years, could pose a potential risk.
Bottom line: RIP hugs.
Current: 7
Granger: Following Thatcher Demko’s outstanding year and the surprisingly impressive playoff performance of 23-year-old Arturs Silovs, the future looks promising for the Canucks in net. This duo may be the most technically sound goalie pair in the league, a testament to the expertise of goalie coach Ian Clark. My only reservation regarding elevating the Canucks even further on this list relates to Demko’s injury history, but if he can maintain his health, Vancouver is in an excellent position.
Future: 25
Wheeler: While I initially had reservations about Silovs, he appears poised to develop into a solid, albeit occasionally inconsistent, NHL backup or at least a dependable No. 3. Nikita Tolopilo, a towering presence, enjoyed a decent rookie season in the AHL last year and could become a viable option for NHL play in the future. The other two noteworthy goalie prospects are Ty Young, who has been signed but lacks excitement and likely fits as AHL/ECHL depth, and Aku Koskenvuo, who will be 22 next year as a junior in college and has yet to secure a starting position at Harvard.
Cap: 1
McIndoe: At a cost of $5 million each year for the next two seasons, Demko presents excellent value, and there’s a desire for this deal to extend even longer. Silovs has recently signed for close to the minimum, putting the Canucks in a strong position for at least the short term.
Bottom line: If it were a video game and we could disable injuries, the Canucks would easily rank in the top five. However, even with Demko’s above-average injury risks, they remain well-positioned.
Current: 20
Granger: Dustin Wolf ranks among the most promising young goalies worldwide. His edgework is exceptional, enabling him to maneuver around the crease skillfully. Though he hasn’t excelled in limited NHL appearances, he is expected to receive significantly more playing time with Markstrom leaving.
Future: 3
Wheeler: Wolf is one of my favorite prospects in the league, and I firmly believe he will seize the Flames’ net and embark on a stellar NHL career starting next season. Additionally, Penn State transfer Arseni Sergeyev is a solid B-grade prospect, while recent Russian draft picks Yegor Yegorov and Kirill Zarubin are both long-term investments.
Cap: 5
McIndoe: The combination of Wolf and Dan Vladar will be budget-friendly, and the financial outlook is clean for the future. They do lose some points for needing to account for nearly $2 million on Markstrom for each of the next two years, but that should not pose much of a problem in what appears to be a rebuild.
Bottom line: With young goalies, unpredictability is a given, but both Scott and Jesse believe the Flames have a promising future with Wolf.
Current: 12
Granger: Last season, Sam Montembeault quietly finished within the top 10 in GSAx, even while playing for the second-worst defense in the NHL. He has exceeded expectations for two consecutive seasons while backing a rebuilding Canadiens squad. If the team in front of him can improve, more people will start to recognize Montembeault’s contributions. Cayden Primeau, now 24, achieved an impressive .910 save percentage as a rookie and is expected to develop into a solid 1B option. Not to mention, there’s Jacob Fowler, who could evolve into a star down the line.
Future: 6
Wheeler: The Habs’ goalie pool features a dynamic duo, which is bolstered by…
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Cap: 15
McIndoe: This year, they will allocate approximately $6 million to their goaltending, with a third of that amount stemming from the retention on Jake Allen. The major complication is Carey Price, who remains on the books for two more years at $10.5 million; while this can be placed on LTIR if necessary, it introduces complications and downsides to what is otherwise a reasonable situation.
Bottom line: Montreal’s future looks promising, a city accustomed to elite goaltending. The current scenario is more questionable, but if Jesse is on board, then so are we.
Current: 11
Granger: I am genuinely excited about Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s current trajectory. He made significant progress in his second full NHL season, stopping 22.46 GSAx (ranked sixth in the league, just behind Swayman) despite playing behind a shaky Buffalo defense. Luukkonen’s greatest strength is his mental acuity, allowing him to read the game and make saves appear simpler than they are. He has recently started working with renowned Finnish goalie coach Hannu Nykvist (who previously worked with Bobrovsky). At 25, the future shines brightly for UPL and the Sabres, who also boast a promising prospect in Devon Levi.
Future: 2
Wheeler: While Luukkonen is no longer considered a prospect, Levi, Scott Ratzlaff, Ryerson Leenders, and Topias Leinonen still are, each showing varying potential. I remain convinced that Levi is among the top young goalies in the sport and is the long-term heir apparent (over UPL) for the Sabres’ net. I also have confidence in both Ratzlaff and Leenders, even though they lack the size that teams typically desire. Leinonen possesses size, yet I have concerns regarding his footwork, mobility, and fitness. Nevertheless, with Levi in the fold, they have a potential 1A, and among the other three, the hope is that one can develop into a solid backup or No. 3 in the future.
Cap: 10
McIndoe: This week, the Luukkonen extension was finalized, and if Jesse’s assessment of his ranking is accurate, it represents reasonable value at $4.75 million. Although a five-year deal carries some risk, having Levi and veteran James Reimer on inexpensive contracts keeps the Sabres’ expenditures in check.
Bottom line: Did we just unleash a wave of optimism for the Buffalo Sabres? This is quite perplexing.
Current: 6
Granger: The 2023-24 season wasn’t particularly favorable for Jake Oettinger, yet the Lakeville, Minn., native at just 25 years old remains one of the best young goalies worldwide. Over three complete NHL seasons, Oettinger has secured two All-Star selections and finished in the top five for Vezina voting on two occasions. Remarkably, he has started more playoff games in the past three years than any goalie except for Bobrovsky. The Stars currently lack a clear No. 2 in their system, but given Oettinger’s youth and his capability to handle a heavy load, this is not a significant concern.
Future: 14
Wheeler: Remi Poirier provides solid AHL depth as a No. 4, and Maxim Mayorov has shown promise over the last few years, though he turned 20 this summer and has not played above the MHL yet. The Stars have clearly prioritized other positions in the draft, confident in Oettinger’s presence at the NHL level, but they should consider selecting or signing one or two younger goalies soon to revitalize their pool (although Oettinger has clearly been the primary factor behind their future ranking).
Cap: 2
McIndoe: It will be intriguing to see the approach with Oettinger, who has one year remaining on his $4 million contract and will be a restricted free agent next summer. Presumably, the goal would be to negotiate a long-term deal, but that figure could be intimidating. The upside is that he won’t possess UFA leverage over them, and more importantly, he is young enough that they should still benefit from a significant portion of his prime, rather than simply pursuing past performance. Until then, he represents good value this year, while Casey DeSmith or whomever may serve as the backup will offer cheap support.
Bottom line: The Stars essentially rely on a single standout, but that standout is exceptionally talented, youthful, and cost-effective for another year before a likely team-friendly extension.
Current: 3
Granger: The Predators might be the sole team with two goalies under contract capable of being top-five in the NHL. Saros has already established himself there, and 2020 first-round selection Askarov seems to be on a solid path. Saros boasts an impressive .917 career save percentage and 97.93 GSAx, which becomes even more remarkable considering he has never had a full season behind a defense ranked in the top 13 for expected goals allowed. With remarkable edgework and rapid reflexes, he stands out as one of the best in the world despite his smaller stature. The transition from Pekka Rinne to Saros to Askarov represents an enviable lineage in the Nashville net.
Future: 5
Wheeler: Askarov may possess the highest potential of any goalie prospect in the sport. While he needs to earn starts away from a well-established starter like Saros, his athleticism, mobility, and overall talent are exceptional. The Predators have also secured Jakub Milota, a smaller but agile CHL import who enjoyed a solid year in the QMJHL last season, leading to his selection in the fourth round of the 2024 draft.
Cap: 13
McIndoe: Saros is a steal this year at just $5 million before an eight-year extension begins. Any long-term contract for a goalie carries inherent risks, but the $7.74 million cap hit is below anticipated levels. Meanwhile, Scott Wedgewood is signed at a low cost, and Askarov will begin on an entry-level contract. the situation looks positive, but any decline in Saros’s performance would raise concerns.
Bottom line: With a young established star and one of the best prospects in the game on the horizon, the Predators comfortably take the top position.
(Top photos of Jake Oettinger and Igor Shesterkin: Ashley Potts / NHLI via Getty Images and Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
# Assessing NHL Goaltending: How Do the Top 10 Teams Stack Up Right Now and in the Future?
## Understanding Goaltending in the NHL
In the NHL, goaltending is often the backbone of a team’s success. A strong goaltender can turn the tide of a game, while inconsistent performances can lead to missed playoff opportunities. In this article, we will assess the current landscape of NHL goaltending, particularly focusing on the top 10 teams, alongside projections for the future.
### Key Metrics for Assessing Goaltending Performance
When evaluating goaltenders, several statistics and metrics come into play:
– **Save Percentage (SV%)**: The percentage of shots a goaltender saves.
– **Goals Against Average (GAA)**: The average number of goals allowed per game.
– **Wins Above Replacement (WAR)**: A metric that quantifies a goaltender’s contribution to team success.
– **Quality Starts (QS)**: Games in which a goaltender performs above league average.
Using these metrics, we can gauge the effectiveness and reliability of goaltenders across the NHL.
## Current Rankings of Top 10 NHL Teams by Goaltending Performance
As of the latest NHL season, the following table outlines the top 10 teams based on their goaltending performance, incorporating key metrics such as SV%, GAA, and WAR.
| Team | Goaltender(s) | SV% | GAA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins | Jeremy Swayman, Linus Ullmark | .925 | 2.30 | 4.5 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | Frederik Andersen | .921 | 2.45 | 3.8 |
| New York Rangers | Igor Shesterkin | .927 | 2.12 | 5.1 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | .920 | 2.52 | 4.0 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov | .918 | 2.67 | 3.5 |
| Colorado Avalanche | Alexander Georgiev | .919 | 2.55 | 3.6 |
| Florida Panthers | Sergei Bobrovsky | .913 | 2.78 | 2.8 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | Logan Thompson, Adin Hill | .921 | 2.48 | 3.7 |
| Seattle Kraken | Philipp Grubauer | .910 | 2.89 | 2.0 |
| Dallas Stars | Jake Oettinger | .926 | 2.12 | 4.4 |
### Analysis of the Top Teams
1. **Boston Bruins**: The duo of Swayman and Ullmark has significantly contributed to the Bruins’ outstanding defense, evidenced by their high SV% and low GAA. Their consistent performances position them as top contenders.
2. **New York Rangers**: Igor Shesterkin remains a formidable force in net, boasting an impressive save percentage and a low GAA which contributes significantly to the Rangers’ playoff aspirations.
3. **Colorado Avalanche**: Alexander Georgiev has stepped up in the absence of their previous goaltender, showcasing solid metrics that keep the Avalanche in the hunt.
4. **Dallas Stars**: Jake Oettinger, a young goaltender, has proven his worth with elite stats, giving the Stars a reliable option for both the present and the future.
## Future Projections for Goaltending
### Emerging Goaltenders to Watch
As the NHL landscape evolves, several young goaltenders are poised to make significant impacts in the coming years:
– **Spencer Knight (Florida Panthers)**: A highly regarded prospect with exceptional skills, Knight has shown flashes of brilliance and could become the Panthers’ franchise goaltender.
– **Carter Hart (Philadelphia Flyers)**: After a couple of inconsistent seasons, Hart is slowly regaining form, and with the right support, he could return to elite status.
– **Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins)**: Swayman has already made strides this season, and with continued development, he could solidify his place as a top-tier goaltender.
### Factors Influencing Future Success
Several factors will impact goaltenders’ performances moving forward:
- **Team Defense**: A strong defensive unit can significantly enhance a goaltender’s statistics. Teams with solid defensive structures often see their goaltenders perform better.
– **Coaching Strategies**: Coaches who emphasize goaltender development and employ tailored strategies can help nurture young talents into stars.
– **Health and Consistency**: Injuries can derail a goaltender’s season. Ensuring they maintain their health will be crucial for sustained success.
## Benefits of Strong Goaltending
– **Playoff Aspirations**: Teams with reliable goaltending are more likely to secure playoff spots and perform well in the postseason.
– **Building Team Morale**: A goaltender who consistently performs well can instill confidence in the entire team.
– **Fan Engagement**: Spectacular saves and clutch performances can enhance fan experience and engagement.
## Case Studies: Successful Goaltending Partnerships
### Boston Bruins: A Two-Headed Monster
The combination of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark has proven effective. Both goaltenders bring unique strengths, allowing the Bruins to rely on either option without a drop in performance. This approach has positioned them favorably in the standings.
### New York Rangers: Igor Shesterkin’s Ascension
Igor Shesterkin’s rise to stardom has been meteoric, marked by his ability to handle pressure. His performances in critical games have solidified the Rangers’ status as a playoff contender.
## Practical Tips for Assessing Goaltending Performance
– **Watch Game Footage**: Viewing game highlights can provide context behind statistics. Look for saves made under pressure and handling of difficult shots.
– **Follow Advanced Metrics**: Utilize advanced analytics to gain deeper insights. Metrics like expected goals against (xGA) can help understand a goalie’s true effectiveness.
– **Stay Updated on Injuries**: Injuries can change the dynamics of a team’s goaltending. Keeping an eye on health reports will provide vital information for assessing performance.
– **Engage with Fan Communities**: Connecting with other hockey fans can offer diverse perspectives and insights on goaltenders and their performances.
By assessing the current state of NHL goaltending, identifying emerging talents, and understanding the metrics that matter, fans and analysts alike can better appreciate the art of goaltending and its crucial role in the game.
