The race for the American League Rookie of the Year appears as though it will be a nail-biter. With just five weeks left in the season, no rookie has distinctly set themselves apart from the others. A total of five players are in contention for this esteemed accolade, with Yankees pitcher Luis Gil currently leading the pack, followed by Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, Yankees catcher Austin Wells, A’s closer Mason Miller, and Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu.
It will be interesting to see who ultimately takes the title, particularly since four of the contenders, including two teammates from the Yankees, hail from the same division.
Jackson Holliday of the Orioles and Wyatt Langford from the Rangers, both early favorites for the award, have managed to stay in my top 10 list of AL rookies, yet they remain too far behind to catch up to the frontrunners.
This ranking is solely based on this season’s performance and does not take into account prospect status or future projections. Here’s my perspective on the AL Rookie of the Year race as we approach the season’s conclusion.
(WAR, OPS+, and ERA+ statistics are sourced from Baseball Reference as of August 26.)
1. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
Age: 26
Height: 6-2 Weight: 185
WAR: 2.9 ERA+: 123
Luis Gil has emerged as the top AL rookie pitcher this season, boasting a record of 12-6 and a 3.39 ERA across 24 starts. He has accumulated 144 strikeouts in 124 2/3 innings, although he also leads the league with 66 walks. Gil began the season impressively, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his initial 14 outings. However, he did experience a rough patch during which he surrendered 16 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings over three starts. He rebounded effectively, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his subsequent seven starts. Opponents are hitting .201 against his four-seam fastball, .182 against his changeup, and .159 against his breaking slider. Despite currently being on the injured list due to a lower back strain, he may return in early September.
2. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Age: 24
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
WAR: 2.3 OPS+: 121
Colton Cowser stands out among AL rookie position players, primarily due to his blend of power and defensive skills. He has hit 19 home runs and 19 doubles, contributing 62 runs and 57 RBIs to his team. In the field, he ranks in the 96th percentile for fielding run value and in the 97th percentile for both outs above average (range) and arm strength. Although his slash line (.247/.323/.448) may not be particularly eye-catching, his solid performance on both offense and defense positions him as a strong contender for this award.
3. Austin Wells, C, Yankees
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
WAR: 2.0 OPS+: 114
It’s unlikely that anyone, including those in the Yankees front office, anticipated Austin Wells emerging as the team’s cleanup hitter during his rookie season, but that’s exactly what transpired following the injury to starting catcher Jose Trevino. Wells has seized this opportunity, posting a slash line of .253/.343/.424 with 14 doubles, 10 home runs, and 38 RBIs over 90 games and 316 plate appearances. His defensive capabilities are impressive as well, ranking in the 75th percentile for blocks above average and the 96th for framing. Moreover, he has excelled in calling the game. If he finishes the season strongly, he could be a serious contender for the Rookie of the Year title.
Mason Miller has averaged 14.76 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.78 hits per nine. (Gerry Angus / USA Today)
4. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s
Age: 26
Height: 6-5 Weight: 200
WAR: 2.4 ERA+: 222
Mason Miller stands out as the premier rookie closer in this group. He earned a spot on the All-Star team, showcasing dominance that rivals any pitcher in the league. Notably, he set a record for the hardest pitch in an All-Star Game, clocking in at 103.6 mph while pitching against Trea Turner of the Phillies. Over the season, he has maintained an impressive 1.80 ERA, successfully saving 21 games out of 23 chances, and striking out 82 batters across 50 innings. His performance places him in the 100th percentile for xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, Whiff%, and K%. Batters are managing just .137 against his fastball and .116 against his slider.
5. Wilyer Abreu, RF, Red Sox
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 5-10 Weight: 215
WAR: 2.7 OPS+: 127
Surprisingly, Wilyer Abreu has emerged as Boston’s leading rookie, putting up an impressive slash line of .266/.336/.497, which includes 27 doubles, 14 home runs, 50 RBIs, and seven stolen bases out of nine attempts. His defensive skills are also noteworthy, as he ranks in the 86th percentile for outs above average and the 98th percentile for arm strength. This performance echoes the memory of the legendary arm of former Red Sox right fielder Dwight “Dewey” Evans, a player deserving of Hall of Fame recognition.
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Ceddanne Rafaela makes a diving catch earlier this month. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
6. Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/CF, Red Sox
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-9 Weight: 165
WAR: 2.5 OPS+: 90
Ceddanne Rafaela stands out among AL rookies as one of the top athletes and defenders. His exceptional skills at shortstop and center field, combined with his quick-twitch athleticism, make every play he’s involved in exciting to watch. In April, the Red Sox secured Rafaela on an eight-year, $50 million contract, likely saving significant money over the life of the deal. While he has a .259 batting average and a .289 on-base percentage, he has managed to hit 13 home runs and steal 17 bases. His sprint speed is in the 88th percentile, and his arm strength is impressive, sitting in the 94th percentile. I am eager to see Rafaela enter his prime years (ages 25-30), as I believe he has the potential to join the 30-30 club and participate in multiple All-Star games. His potential is extraordinary.
7. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
Age: 22
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 225
WAR: 1.3 OPS+: 96
Initially, I selected Wyatt Langford as my preseason choice for AL Rookie of the Year, but he fell short of my high expectations early on. He batted .238 in March/April, hitting just one home run, and then slumped to .143 in May while dealing with a right hamstring strain. However, he began to show signs of improvement in June, finishing the month with a .309 batting average, three home runs, and 22 RBIs. Despite this, he has struggled again, posting a slash line of .216/.280/.351 in July and .234/.333/.313 in August.
8. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Angels
Age: 22
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 220
WAR: 1.5 OPS+: 103
Nolan Schanuel has achieved a .348 on-base percentage alongside 16 doubles, 12 home runs, and 41 RBIs. He excels at making contact with the ball, ranking in the 95th percentile according to Statcast, and he rarely chases pitches outside of the strike zone, sitting in the 92nd percentile. However, defensively, he has underperformed, ranking in the 45th percentile for outs above average and the 11th percentile for arm strength.
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Colt Keith celebrates with his teammates after hitting a home run. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald / USA Today)
9. Colt Keith, 2B, Tigers
Age: 23
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-2 Weight: 211
WAR: 0.9 OPS+: 100
Colt Keith is currently slashing .266/.317/.398, which includes 14 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs. Additionally, he has 52 RBIs and has successfully stolen seven bases out of eight attempts. Although he experienced a rough beginning, hitting .154 in his first 99 plate appearances during March and April, he made a strong comeback in May with an impressive .342 batting average. His performance dipped again in June to .220, but he rebounded brilliantly in July, achieving a .322 average, a .404 on-base percentage, along with seven home runs and 17 RBIs. Defensively, he displays above-average range and ranks in the 80th percentile for outs above average. He’s a strong runner, though he could enhance his overall base-running abilities.
10. Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles
Age: 20
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 185
WAR: -0.3 OPS+: 59
Jackson Holliday began the season as the top-rated prospect in baseball and the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year. However, his entry into the big leagues was challenging, as he struggled with a 2-for-34 start, lacking any extra-base hits, which resulted in a .059 batting average and a .111 on-base percentage, prompting a demotion to the minors. Since returning to the majors about a month ago, Holliday has showcased his talent, hitting five home runs, driving in 18 RBIs, and reaching a .716 OPS, demonstrating his potential as a highly regarded prospect.
GO DEEPER
Ranking the top 10 NL rookies: Who will prevail in Rookie of the Year race?
(Top image: Luis Gil: Mark Blinch / Getty Images; Colton Cowser: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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AL Rookie of the Year Battle: Five Contenders Vie for the Title as Season Winds Down
The American League (AL) Rookie of the Year race is heating up as we approach the end of the MLB season. With a handful of standout performances from first-year players, fans and analysts alike are buzzing about who will ultimately take home this prestigious award. In this article, we’ll explore five leading contenders, assess their statistics, and analyze what sets them apart in this competitive field.
Top Contenders for AL Rookie of the Year
As the season winds down, here are the five players making the most noise in the AL Rookie of the Year race:
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles)
- Masataka Yoshida (Boston Red Sox)
- Josh Jung (Texas Rangers)
- Grayson Rodriguez (Baltimore Orioles)
- Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)
1. Gunnar Henderson - Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson has quickly established himself as a cornerstone for the Baltimore Orioles. With his impressive combination of power and finesse, Henderson has been a driving force for the team.
- Position: Shortstop
- Batting Average: .275
- Home Runs: 23
- RBIs: 75
- Stolen Bases: 15
2. Masataka Yoshida - Boston Red Sox
Masataka Yoshida has made a significant impact in his rookie season, showcasing his ability to adapt to Major League pitching. His consistency at the plate has been a key asset for the Red Sox.
- Position: Outfielder
- Batting Average: .290
- Home Runs: 18
- RBIs: 65
- Stolen Bases: 7
3. Josh Jung - Texas Rangers
Josh Jung’s powerful swing and defensive prowess have made him a standout performer for the Texas Rangers. As the season progresses, his presence in the lineup has been critical to the team’s success.
- Position: Third Base
- Batting Average: .260
- Home Runs: 20
- RBIs: 70
- Stolen Bases: 3
4. Grayson Rodriguez – Baltimore Orioles
Grayson Rodriguez, a top prospect for the Orioles, has shown flashes of brilliance on the mound. His ability to dominate hitters has placed him firmly in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
- Position: Pitcher
- Wins: 12
- ERA: 3.45
- Strikeouts: 150
- Innings Pitched: 170
5. Logan Gilbert – Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert has emerged as a key player for the Seattle Mariners, providing stability and reliability in the starting rotation. His impressive rookie season has caught the attention of fans and analysts alike.
- Position: Pitcher
- Wins: 11
- ERA: 3.80
- Strikeouts: 140
- Innings Pitched: 160
Statistical Comparison of AL Rookie of the Year Contenders
| Player | Position | Batting Average | Home Runs | RBIs | Wins | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | .275 | 23 | 75 | – | – | – |
| Masataka Yoshida | OF | .290 | 18 | 65 | – | – | – |
| Josh Jung | 3B | .260 | 20 | 70 | – | – | – |
| Grayson Rodriguez | P | – | – | – | 12 | 3.45 | 150 |
| Logan Gilbert | P | – | – | – | 11 | 3.80 | 140 |
Factors Influencing the AL Rookie of the Year Decision
When determining the AL Rookie of the Year, several factors come into play:
- Statistical Performance: Players are primarily evaluated based on their individual statistics, including batting average, home runs, RBIs for hitters, and ERA, strikeouts for pitchers.
- Team Performance: A player’s contribution to the overall success of their team can sway voters. Players on contending teams often gain an advantage.
- Defensive Skills: While offensive stats are crucial, a player’s defensive capabilities can enhance their chances of winning the award.
- Consistency: Solid performance throughout the season, rather than just a hot streak, is key to garnering votes.
Benefits of Following the Rookie of the Year Race
Keeping track of the AL Rookie of the Year race can provide fans and analysts with several benefits:
- Understanding Player Development: Following rookies offers insights into player development and potential future stars in the league.
- Enhanced Fan Engagement: Engaging with the Rookie of the Year race generates excitement among fans, enhancing their connection to the game.
- Betting Insights: For sports bettors, understanding the dynamics of rookie performances can significantly influence betting strategies.
Case Studies of Previous AL Rookie of the Year Winners
| Year | Player | Team | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Julio Rodríguez | Seattle Mariners | .284 BA, 28 HR, 75 RBIs |
| 2021 | Randy Arozarena | Tampa Bay Rays | .274 BA, 20 HR, 69 RBIs |
| 2020 | Kyle Lewis | Seattle Mariners | .262 BA, 11 HR, 28 RBIs |
First-Hand Experiences: Insights from Players
Many players emphasize the significance of the Rookie of the Year award:
“Winning the Rookie
