“`html
As the Jets made their way to the West to face the 49ers on “Monday Night Football” to conclude Week 1, serious questions lingered about the potential for a Super Bowl preview. Following a quick surge from Aaron Rodgers and the team, the San Francisco offense took command and secured a decisive win.
Subscribe: ‘The Bill Barnwell Show’
Now, after five weeks, it appears that both teams are struggling. The Jets traveled to London and became yet another team that fell behind early against the Vikings, allowing defensive coordinator Brian Flores to unleash his strategies and put Rodgers under pressure. Meanwhile, the 49ers managed to capitalize on a kick return that resulted in a touchdown and a lead against Arizona at home. However, they once again faltered, with the Cardinals scoring 14 unanswered points in the second half to claim victory.
Let’s assess these disappointing 2-3 teams. Were their struggles foreseeable? What went wrong, and is there a path to recovery? I will begin with the early game, where the Jets appeared devoid of any plans in a loss that intensified the discussions surrounding Davante Adams:
Jump to a section:
Jets | 49ers
Week 5 result: Lost 23-17 to the Minnesota Vikings
For Jets fans, the once-bright vision they held in the spring of 2023 has faded. The belief that adding Rodgers to a formidable defense would instantly elevate New York into the elite of football—an aspiration sidelined by the quarterback’s torn Achilles last season—is now simply unrealistic. With a record of 2-3, the Jets find themselves mirroring the start they had with Zach Wilson last season. They began 3-2 under Wilson and Joe Flacco after five games in 2022. The stability and reassurance that Rodgers was expected to bring has yet to materialize. Their frustrations persist, albeit in different forms.
The Jets’ offense was tailored
and appears to be outdated.
Contemporary NFL offenses excel by posing challenging questions to defenses. While having a standout player capable of extending plays indefinitely, like Patrick Mahomes, or breaking down any defender in coverage, such as Justin Jefferson, will always be advantageous, the most effective offenses compel defenses to communicate and collaborate dynamically, exploiting the errors that occur when they fail to do so.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Teams that frequently utilize pre-snap motion are typically seen as the league’s most innovative offenses. The Dolphins, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Lions, Chiefs, and Bills all employ motion over 70% of the time. The Chiefs effectively secured their victory in Super Bowl LVII against the Eagles by capitalizing on Philadelphia’s difficulties with jet motion in the red zone, successfully executing two jet-return motion plays that resulted in crucial touchdowns.
In contrast, the Jets have employed motion 43% of the time this season, ranking 28th in the NFL. Rodgers has openly shared his reservations about heavily relying on the motion trend in 2022. Following a loss to the Jets, he indicated that Green Bay performed better on drives that did not involve motion before the snap. It is unsurprising that the Packers significantly increased their motion usage after his departure and Jordan Love took over.
Rodgers has consistently preferred to gain clear insights into the defense before the snap, using his cadence and experience to analyze its intentions. On one hand, he proves correct; he performs better without motion. He currently ranks 16th in the league in QBR when his offense remains still before the snap and 26th when motion is involved. Transitioning to an offense reliant on this trend is unlikely to benefit him. Furthermore, Hackett does not seem inclined to adopt this motion-heavy approach; during his singular season with the Broncos in 2022, they ranked 28th in motion usage.
A more familiar concept is play-action. Offenses originating from the Shanahan tree, which Rodgers experienced under LaFleur in Green Bay, have flourished by significantly raising their play-action rates, transforming Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff into stars. In 2007, the first year ESPN recorded play-action data, the league utilized it on less than 18% of offensive dropbacks. This rate has steadily increased to nearly 24% of dropbacks this season.
While all offenses make use of play-action, some execute it more effectively and consistently than others. Rodgers does not typically employ it frequently, partly because he must turn his back to the defense when conducting play-action from under center. He prefers to engage his mind and vision to manipulate and dissect defenses. Turning away allows the defense to reset and obscure their intentions.
Throughout the league, quarterbacks tend to post a QBR that is 15 points higher when utilizing play-action compared to when they do not. However, Rodgers’ QBR drops by 13 points when he employs play-action this season. Only Caleb Williams and Geno Smith experience a more significant decline under these circumstances. The NFL averages 8.7 yards per pass attempt with play-action from under center; Rodgers, however, has averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt on similar plays.</“`html
1:06
Rodgers throws 3 picks as Jets fall to 2-3
Aaron Rodgers’ three interceptions include a pick-six as the Jets fall to the Vikings in London 23-17.
Yahoo Sports writer Nate Tice describes elements such as play-action and motion as “easy buttons” for the offense. While they won’t transform a poor offense into a good one, they generate friction for the defense and increase the likelihood of mistakes. However, since these options are seldom utilized and fail to provide the same effectiveness seen in other teams, the Jets must succeed without depending on them as heavily.
In his prime, Rodgers had no difficulty functioning without those features due to his proficiency within the offense. With pinpoint accuracy and the quickest release in the league, the future Hall of Famer could deliver throws into any opening. He utilized his mobility to prolong plays and established an innate connection with his receivers, allowing him to locate them during scramble drills for significant gains.
Although he may not possess the same athleticism he had at his best or even prior to his Achilles injury, his arm strength remains intact. This season, he has delivered some remarkable passes. The greater concern is his familiarity and rapport with his receivers. Notably, before Sunday, the team’s leading receiver was Lazard, a former teammate whom Rodgers targeted for a touchdown during a free play in Week 1.
Despite Rodgers targeting Wilson a staggering 22 times on 56 routes on Sunday, Wilson managed to amass only 101 yards, achieving a modest (yet unimpressive) 1.8 yards per route run. Throughout the previous two seasons, Garrett Wilson performed more effectively with Zach Wilson as quarterback on a per-route basis.
Communication issues became apparent during the game-ending interception, when Rodgers appeared to intend a back-shoulder or fade route to Mike Williams. Williams released to the outside without turning for the ball; Rodgers’ throw was low and directed inside against cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who made the interception from his back to conclude the game. The play consisted of three vertical routes; while calling go routes in critical situations is not inherently bad, it necessitates Rodgers’ trust that his receivers will be correctly positioned, make appropriate releases, and adjust according to where he intends to place the ball. Williams failed to do so, leading to the game’s conclusion.
Moreover, the rushing offense has become completely stagnant. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets’ run plays are expected to gain an average of just 3.7 yards per carry, marking the worst rushing performance in the league. Breece Hall, who excelled running behind backups and with Wilson as the quarterback last season, is currently averaging 3.0 yards per carry and has accumulated 27 rushing yards on 19 carries over the last two games. Although Hall is a home run threat, he has recorded just one run exceeding 20 yards this season.
<iframe id="null" height="152" width="100%" class="frame iframe-embed" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6EXl6ugEbgj19i1Qr32
To cover four eligible receivers, the Broncos, at the snap, dropped one A-gap defender into coverage while sending both slot cornerbacks and overloaded the left side of the offensive line with rushers. This left Rodgers accountable for the farthest defender, necessitating a quick throw. That defender, P.J. Locke, managed to sack him, concluding the drive.
The strategy that Hackett implemented for that play included three verticals. The Broncos deployed a linebacker into Wilson’s route, obstructing the sight adjustment that could have facilitated an easy completion. By the time Rodgers attempted to progress through his options, he found himself on the ground.
Fast forward to the Vikings match. During a third-and-6 in the first quarter, Flores positioned the Vikings in a similar formation, stacking the line of scrimmage and seemingly preparing for a Cover 0 scheme. At the snap, Flores once again overloaded the left side of the line, which left Rodgers in a precarious position, responsible for the outermost defender on the line who was approaching rapidly. Andrew Van Ginkel retreated into coverage on the opposite side. This week, Rodgers had a response to that free pressure, aiming to throw a slant away from the blitz. However, he misfired directly into the hands of Van Ginkel, who returned it for the second pick-six of the season:
Another Van Ginkel pick-6! Dots!@NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/tHRFRqPmB0
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 6, 2024
Then, during another third-and-6 in the second quarter, a similar situation unfolded.
The Vikings aligned with the same setup, featuring seven players on the line of scrimmage and four defenders in coverage against four eligible receivers, implying they were ready to execute a Cover 0 strategy. Once again at the snap, Flores directed Van Ginkel into coverage and unleashed a free rusher off Rodgers’ blind side—this time it was Harrison Smith. Once more, Rodgers faced pressure and needed to deliver the ball quickly. And again, with the Jets opting for four vertical routes, he found no clear option for a pass. Consequently, he was sacked before he could even formulate a decision. The fault does not lie with the offensive line; rather, it is a result of Rodgers and the scheme failing to provide him with the necessary solutions. The strategic choices made by the Jets should be viewed as a collective responsibility shared between the quarterback and the offensive coordinator.
THE HIIIIIIIITMAN!@HarriSmith22
📺: @NFLNetwork <a href="https://t.co/wWD
Currently making $10 million this year, Williams has shown productivity and already enjoys the advantage of having synced well with Rodgers, thanks to their previous time together in Green Bay. The Jets are also investing $10 million in Williams and anticipate that his responsibilities will grow as the former Chargers wide receiver recovers from a torn ACL sustained in September 2023. Given that they are not transitioning to a spread offense, it seems probable that Williams may end up being sidelined. It could be prudent to seek a trade for Williams if Adams joins the roster.
Acquiring Adams now would likely require the Jets to part with several draft picks, although they do have an additional third-round selection after trading away a fourth-rounder in the April draft. For a team that is fully committed until 40-year-old Rodgers steps down, Adams would represent a greater asset than a cost-controlled Day 2 pick. He possesses familiarity with the offensive scheme and an innate rapport with Rodgers that resulted in numerous significant receptions while in Green Bay.
If the Jets remain steadfast in their offensive strategy, securing a player capable of excelling within the specific parameters of that offense—either right away or once Adams recuperates from his hamstring injury—is essential for any immediate improvement. With a pivotal AFC East matchup against the 3-2 Bills approaching next Monday night, New York has the opportunity to seize control of the division with a win. Bringing Adams into the fold would revitalize the narratives around the team and reenergize their season. Moreover, as has been the case on numerous occasions for these Jets, it would certainly please Rodgers.
Week 5 result: Lost 24-23 to the Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers may find themselves more unfortunate than disappointing this season. They were outperformed by the Vikings in a 23-17 loss, but Shanahan’s squad nearly pulled ahead by missing a field goal that would have made it a ten-point game against the Rams late in Week 3. On Sunday, they seemed to have contained the Arizona offense after a strong start, yet a couple of turnovers resurrected the momentum for Kyler Murray & Co. The Cardinals managed to overcome a 23-10 deficit, benefiting from a tipped interception by Brock Purdy and two lengthy touchdown drives following a Jordan Mason fumble in the red zone. A contest that San Francisco largely controlled ended in an upset victory for Arizona.
Let’s examine those turnovers. The 49ers would have claimed victory had they managed the ball better. Purdy threw another tipped interception on the final drive to seal their fate, contributing to a turnover differential of 3-0 in favor of Arizona.
Catch your preferred live sports, stories, and originals
Since the beginning of 2022, including the postseason, the team boasts an impressive NFL-best record of 29-3 (.906) when they avoid committing two or more turnovers. In contrast, when they do have at least two turnovers, their record stands at 2-11 (.154), ranking them 24th in winning percentage for those games. Notably, two of these losses were season-ending playoff defeats in 2022 and 2023, with an additional three occurring in the last four weeks of the 2024 season.
While the two interceptions thrown on Sunday can be attributed more to chance than to poor decision-making, the stylistic shift in Purdy’s gameplay discussed in last week’s awards column may play a role here. On average, his passes are traveling 10 full yards in the air, marking the second-highest rate in the league, second only to Anthony Richardson. Many of his interceptions have occurred during plays where he either threw deep or seemed poised to do so. Throws that travel more than 20 yards in the air are intercepted over three times more frequently than those that do not.
Naturally, as Purdy increases his deep passing attempts, the 49ers have experienced a loss of consistency in their passing game. Last season, he achieved a success rate of 54.4% as a passer, maintaining the offense’s momentum with expected points added (EPA) per play to secure first downs and touchdowns. No other quarterback exceeded 50.2%, with Dak Prescott trailing closer to the 11th position than first.
This season, Purdy’s performance has slightly regressed, with his success rate now at 51.4%, placing him fourth in the league. Despite the emphasis on deep passes, his EPA has decreased from 0.24 EPA/dropback to 0.16 this year. While still a strong figure, it represents a decline from his previous MVP-caliber performance.
My greater concern lies with the running game. Although Mason showed promise before his fumble, the 49ers are not as effective in their rushing attempts this season. Last year, they led the league in EPA per play on designed runs — not counting scrambles from passing plays. This season, they have dropped to 19th in this category, and their ranking is significantly influenced by a strong performance in their Week 1 victory against the Jets. Since then, they’ve fallen to 25th in EPA per designed run.
While it’s easy to attribute these issues to Mason’s fumble, the blocking and overall infrastructure can complicate matters. The 49ers stand as one of the bottom five teams in expected yards per carry, with their running backs projected to gain an average of only 3.9 yards per rush. Shanahan’s well-known strategy of running into adverse situations to set up larger plays later likely applies here, as they were also ranked among the bottom eight in expected yards per carry for the previous two seasons. (In contrast, Mike McDaniel, Shanahan’s former assistant, has led his Miami team to the top in expected yards per carry for three consecutive years.)
In certain respects, the 49ers continue to operate at a high level. They have achieved a first down on more than 85% of their possessions so far, holding the best rate in the league by a significant margin and the sixth-best rate for any team through five games since 2007. Their drives average a league-high possession time of three minutes and 34 seconds, and they continue to generate first downs at the highest rate of any team. By all measures, this offense should be highly productive and successful.
However, there is one significant area where the 49ers are underperforming: the red zone. Last season, they converted an impressive“`html
When analyzing a large enough sample, a team’s performance in the red zone should align with its overall performance on the field. Typically, if an offense excels outside the red zone but struggles within it, this latter performance tends to regress toward the average, and the opposite is also true. However, this has not generally been an issue for the 49ers, who excelled in both areas last year. The previous season, they ranked first in EPA per play outside the red zone and third within the 20-yard line.
This season, the offense holds the third position in EPA per play outside the red zone but has dropped to 22nd inside it. Discounting drives during garbage time, the 49ers managed to score just five times on their 59 trips inside the red zone last year. Although this year they have reached the red zone an impressive 21 times—a league high—they have already failed to score on three of those occasions in five games, including two times against the Cardinals.
One of those missed opportunities was the result of a fumble by Mason. The other instance occurred when a drive was hindered by a false start from Jauan Jennings on second-and-9 at the 15-yard line, leading to a sack of Purdy. Following an incompletion, and without a healthy kicker after Jake Moody sustained an ankle injury, the San Francisco team attempted a fourth-and-23 conversion on the Arizona 27-yard line, with Purdy’s pass falling well short of the necessary distance.
While Moody’s injury was unfortunate, the 49ers contributed to their own difficulties. The unsuccessful fourth-and-23 attempt came after a third-down play where a pass from Purdy intended for a wide-open Brandon Aiyuk was deflected at the line of scrimmage. On another drive, a second-and-goal from the 5-yard line in the second quarter should have resulted in a touchdown pass to George Kittle, but Purdy’s high throw forced Kittle to leap, preventing any yards after catch (YAC) and pushing him out of bounds. Subsequently, Purdy became fixated on a three-man route concept that was well defended on third down, resulting in him throwing the ball away under pressure and forcing the team to settle for a 20-yard field goal.
The other sequence that ended without a score occurred during the loss to the Vikings. In that series, Purdy missed a wide-open Aiyuk in the back of the end zone on first-and-goal from the 4-yard line. Mason was tackled for a loss on second down, and a pass intended for Kittle at the pylon came up a yard short on third-and-goal. On fourth down, a pass was batted away by Andrew Van Ginkel, averting a potential touchdown.
The return of McCaffrey should provide a boost, although his recovery from Achilles tendinitis is still uncertain. Mason has carried the ball six times inside the 5-yard line but has only succeeded in scoring two touchdowns. Last year, McCaffrey converted 9 of 18 opportunities, offering a significantly greater threat as a receiver in tight spaces.
Moody’s unexpected injury presents an additional complication, compounded by the fact that San Francisco’s special teams have been underperforming. They ranked last in DVOA even prior to Sunday’s game. Moody had successfully made 11 of 12 field goals, though his sole miss was the 55-yarder that could have sealed the win against the Rams. Mitch Wishnowsky stepped in to kick a short field goal, but the“`html
The average starting field position for San Francisco’s defense is roughly 65 yards from its end zone, marking the shortest average distance faced by any opposing offense.
Last year, the 49ers boasted the second-best average starting field position on defense, nearly 9 yards per drive better than their current standing. This represents an astonishing change in terms of field position. Over the course of a full game, San Francisco is conceding approximately 90 more yards per contest than they did last year, solely due to the difference between the 2023 and 2024 field positions before their defense even takes the field. This amounts to a significant amount of extra yardage being offered to rival offenses.
This yardage is a liability the 49ers cannot afford to provide, especially in light of the injuries plaguing their defensive unit. Dre Greenlaw remains absent due to a torn Achilles he sustained last February. Talanoa Hufanga has missed three games and exited Sunday’s loss after playing only 11 snaps due to a wrist injury. Javon Hargrave is sidelined for the season with a partially torn triceps, and Yetur Gross-Matos was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury prior to the Cardinals game, meaning he will be unavailable for the next month. This totals three essential starters along with a player who was expected to bolster their edge-rushing capabilities this season. Meanwhile, Fred Warner, touted as a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year through four games, was also limited throughout the week by an ankle injury, and he did not perform at his usual level during Sunday’s game.
As has been the trend this season, the Cardinals exploited the vulnerabilities of the 49ers’ defense. De’Vondre Campbell failed to make an impact on two significant plays early in the game due to miscommunication on the Cardinals’ first snap, which left Trey McBride wide open for a 20-yard reception. During the subsequent play, McBride effectively blocked Campbell, opening a running lane for Murray on a zone-read play. When Hufanga prematurely crashed down from his center-field position, Murray capitalized and dashed into the end zone for a 50-yard touchdown untouched.
Late-game miscommunication compounded the issues. A pivotal third-and-6 turned into a straightforward first down for the Cardinals when Charvarius Ward and Ji’Ayir Brown mistakenly covered the same player, leaving Michael Wilson wide open for an easy conversion. An even more critical fourth-and-5 saw Murray evade pressure and hurl an erratic pass to Marvin Harrison Jr., who outjumped Isaac Yiadom to secure the first down.
Ward, recognized as one of the top cornerbacks in the league over recent years, allowed a team-high 67 passing yards while in coverage. Hufanga’s aggressive play at the wrong moment proved detrimental. Warner was unable to prevent Murray from scrambling for a first down on a third-and-9 at the end of the first half. Even San Francisco’s star players struggled to find their rhythm.
An unnecessary penalty exacerbated the situation. Following the Cardinals’ short touchdown, which brought the score to 23-19 with four minutes remaining, the 49ers gifted the Cardinals another opportunity due to a penalty. Sam Okuayinonu was called for roughing the passer on Murray, which enabled the Cardinals to start from the 1-yard line. Given the game situation from that distance, teams are mathematically inclined to attempt a two-point conversion, and the Cardinals succeeded with a run from James Conner. Subsequently, when Arizona advanced down the field late in the fourth quarter, their possession was
While San Francisco is eager for him to return, it remains uncertain if he will be ready to play in that game; however, they certainly hope he will be back for the next week’s Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs.
I am confident that the 49ers will recover. Their performance in the red zone will likely normalize. Additionally, they are expected to regain Greenlaw and McCaffrey at some point. The special teams cannot maintain such poor performance throughout the season, and they had a significant moment on Sunday. Purdy is not one to shy away from taking risks with the ball, yet he is unlikely to face many games with two interceptions caused by tipped balls or pressure from defenders as he did against Arizona. Moving forward, the team should not experience as many multi-turnover games as they have in the previous month.
Nonetheless, for a team with aspirations for the Super Bowl, starting the season in this manner is risky. According to the NFL Next Gen Stats playoff model, San Francisco’s playoff odds have dropped to 53%, and their chances of securing the top seed in the NFC are now only 2%. Although the losses by the Rams and Seahawks mitigated the impact of their defeat against the Cardinals, this team must discover a consistent winning formula. Currently, it seems as though the 49ers are playing carelessly while awaiting McCaffrey’s return.
Struggles of the Jets and 49ers: Can Disappointment Spark a Turnaround?
Current State of the Teams
The New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers are two teams currently facing significant challenges in the NFL. The Jets recently suffered a tough 32-19 loss against the 49ers, highlighting their defensive struggles and raising questions about their overall performance. Meanwhile, the 49ers, who secured a victory, are also grappling with the implications of their season’s ups and downs. This article delves into the issues affecting both teams and explores potential strategies for a turnaround.
Jets’ Defensive Woes
The Jets’ defense has been under intense scrutiny following their latest game. The 49ers exploited New York’s defensive gaps, leading to a disappointing outcome that left fans and analysts questioning the team’s capabilities on that side of the ball.
Key Struggles of the Jets Defense
- Lack of Pressure on Quarterbacks: The Jets have struggled to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, allowing them ample time to make plays.
- Poor Coverage: Defensive backs have had difficulty covering receivers, resulting in several big plays for the opponent.
- Inconsistency in Tackling: There have been numerous missed tackles, leading to extended gains for the 49ers.
Statistical Breakdown
Category Jets 49ers Total Points Allowed 32 19 Quarterback Sacks 1 3 Missed Tackles 12 3 49ers: Riding the Wave of Momentum
Despite their victory, the San Francisco 49ers have not been immune to struggles. While they demonstrated resilience against the Jets, their performance overall has shown inconsistency, suggesting that they must address certain areas to maintain their success.
Strengths Displayed by the 49ers
- Strong Offensive Line: The 49ers have showcased a solid offensive line, enabling their running game to flourish.
- Quarterback Efficiency: Their quarterback has managed the game well, minimizing turnovers and making crucial throws.
- Defensive Improvements: The defense has been effective in creating turnovers, crucial for maintaining momentum.
Areas for Improvement
- Consistency in Pass Defense: The secondary has occasionally struggled against top-tier receiving corps.
- Injury Management: Keeping key players healthy will be crucial as the season progresses.
Common Challenges Faced by Both Teams
While the Jets and 49ers are at different points in their respective journeys, both teams share common challenges:
- Injury Issues: Both teams have faced injuries to key players that impact their performance.
- Coaching Decisions: The effectiveness of coaching strategies can significantly affect game outcomes.
- Fan Expectations: High expectations can lead to increased pressure, which may affect player performance.
Can Disappointment Spark a Turnaround?
Disappointment can indeed be a catalyst for change. History shows that teams often use setbacks as a learning experience. Here are some practical tips for both teams to consider:
Strategies for the Jets
- Focus on Fundamentals: Simplifying defensive schemes may help players execute basic fundamentals better.
- Player Accountability: Encouraging players to take responsibility for their mistakes fosters a culture of improvement.
- Tape Study: Reviewing game footage can help identify weaknesses and areas for improvement.
Strategies for the 49ers
- Consistent Game Planning: Developing a robust game plan that adjusts to opponents can enhance their game approach.
- Building Depth: Fostering depth in the roster ensures that injuries do not derail the season.
- Maintain Team Chemistry: Fostering communication and teamwork can lead to improved on-field performance.
Case Studies of Turnarounds in NFL History
Looking at past NFL teams that turned their seasons around can offer insights into what both the Jets and 49ers might achieve:
- 2001 New England Patriots: After a rocky start, the Patriots rebounded to win the Super Bowl, thanks to a focus on teamwork and strategic adjustments.
- 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars: Following a disappointing previous year, they revamped their roster, leading them to the playoffs with a strong defense.
Conclusion
As the Jets and 49ers navigate their current struggles, the potential for a turnaround exists. With strategic adjustments, player accountability, and a focus on fundamentals, both teams can aim to transform their disappointments into stepping stones for future success.
