Several teams have secured their spots in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, while others are preparing for their vacation in Cancun. The Pigeons managed to exact some revenge for the Red Wedding, and the Sounders continue to progress steadily.
With only a few matchdays remaining, our understanding of these teams deepens. Let’s take a closer look:
Initially, LAFC secured the US Open Cup title with a 3-1 victory over Sporting KC at home after extra time last Wednesday.
Following that, they traveled for a cross-conference showdown— a bit late in the season for such a clash, to be honest— and came away with all three points. This was thanks to a slick combination play that led to David Martínez’s opener, followed by Denis Bouanga showcasing his skills to score the eventual winning goal.
Cincinnati has struggled at home and is still attempting to field their ideal lineup after a summer filled with injuries and new signings. However, achieving a 2-1 victory with a reshuffled squad during a critical point in the season speaks volumes. Regular-season victories like this are quite significant.
“This demonstrates a lot of character and mentality within the group. It also reflects where the team’s and individual players’ priorities lie— primarily for the team and the club,” remarked manager Steve Cherundolo afterward. “In my interactions with the players, I sensed no ounce of selfishness tonight, which is essential for championship teams. They also need quality, which we possess.”
Currently, the Black & Gold seem to be in a decent position. They’re not at their peak— their performance is nowhere near the level they reached from mid-May to late August— but the five-match slump that plagued them throughout much of September is now behind them.
However, the 4-3-3 formation is not yet on the table. Cherundolo has deployed his team in a 3-4-2-1 (or a 5-2-3, or a 3-4-3— interpretations may vary, but they all share a common strategy) in both recent matches, and given the successful results, there isn’t a strong reason to revert to the previous formation.
Nonetheless, Cherundolo wisely maintains both tactics in his repertoire.
“We are all still seeking ways to avoid such close games, to decisively finish opponents, and to determine the optimal approach for both formations and the timing of our tactics,” Cherundolo remarked after the game. “There remains a significant amount of learning and improvement to focus on in the upcoming weeks.
“However, our primary concern is to ensure that we are healthy and rejuvenated.”
Here’s the network passing diagram from the victory, which illustrates why defining the formation can be challenging. One wingback, Kike Olivera on the right, maintains a high and wide position, effectively acting as a pure attacker, while the other, Open Cup hero Omar Campos (No. 2 on the left), assumes a more traditional role.
Conversely, the wingers, Mateusz Bogusz and Martínez (Nos. 19 & 30) move inward, alternating between playing as an additional forward and assuming playmaking responsibilities. After dedicating half a year to mastering his role, Martínez has established himself as a regular, now boasting 4 goals and 2 assists in 433 minutes across all competitions, with a majority of his playing time coming in the last two and a half months.
This approach is crucial in ensuring that Bouanga and Bogusz—the team’s clear starters—remain energetic. If they are fresh, LAFC becomes a formidable opponent once more.
As for Cincy… I’ve reiterated the same observation week after week for months: they are still navigating their path with numerous new players, a situation that will likely become more challenging following Chidozie Awaziem’s injury in this match.
Another issue to consider is:
- In 2022, Obinna Nwobodo averaged 5.67 progressive passes per game with an 85% accuracy rate, both placing him in the 67th percentile (which aligns well with Cincy’s playing style).
- For 2023, Nwobodo has completed 4.67 progressive passes per game at 85.4% accuracy. While his accuracy remains in the 67th percentile, his volume has dropped to the 48th percentile.
- This year, he has further decreased to an average of 3.87 progressive passes per game, while maintaining an accuracy of 85.3%.
Some of this shift can be attributed to Pavel Bucha taking on a greater role in managing the play compared to his predecessor, Junior Moreno. However, another aspect to consider is this:
(Thanks to Joe Lowery for that clip).
Nwobodo has not been at his best. When he struggles, it becomes challenging for Cincinnati to perform at the level necessary to overcome A-Tier opponents.
Thus, I maintain my perspective expressed in this tweet:
Last winter, New York City FC invested heavily in players like Agustín Ojeda and Jovan Mijatovic, following significant spending on Julián Fernández and Mounsef Bakrar the previous summer. While it’s still somewhat early, they currently find themselves at 0-for-4. During a nine-game winless streak, the team’s major issue leading up to Saturday’s Hudson River Derby in Harrison has been the challenge of placing their wingers—such as Ojeda and Fernández—into crucial scoring opportunities within and around the box.
However, it seems my timing could have been improved. The Pigeons decisively defeated the Red Bulls 5-1, a result that has fans on the East side of the river dubbing it “The Blue Divorce” (which is admittedly a more fitting name than my own suggestion), achieved by having both fullbacks (Kevin O’Toole on the left and Tayvon Gray on the right) push high and get deeply involved.
Moreover, it was Andrés Perea who infiltrated from the left, not Maxi. It’s not a decision I would have opted for under any circumstances, but it ended up being the precisely correct strategy from a beleaguered coach, Nick Cushing.
“Yeah, I believe we had a game plan tonight regarding how we intended to create scoring opportunities and how we aimed to pose threats. We were without one of our key players, suspended No. 10 Santiago Rodríguez,” Cushing remarked afterwards.
“Therefore, it was essential to find the right balance and develop a solution. For us, the answer tonight was incorporating Alonso Martínez, Andrés Perea, and Hannes Wolf—three players exceptional at exploiting space.
“I was aware that Red Bull were going to…
“`html
Jumping to the side, it was set to be winger-fullback, and they prefer to push hard in an effort to regain possession of the ball. There are essentially two options: you can either kick it or execute your own style of play. When the time wasn’t right, a genuine opportunity emerged, targeting Tayvon behind the defense, bringing it to Tayvon, and then to Maxi.
Gray had an outstanding match, contributing both a goal and an assist, his best performance in professional soccer. O’Toole recorded an assist and played a role in two additional goals, including the one by Gray. Despite this, RBNY failed to adjust.
This approach was one aspect that allowed NYCFC to dominate the derby. The other was delivering a taste of their own medicine to the Red Bulls right from the start:
Alonso Martínez has now scored 14 goals this season, achieving this in just over 1250 minutes. He is significantly exceeding his expected goals metrics, but even if he were merely reaching his expected non-penalty goals (npxG), he would still rank in the 97th percentile among forwards—surpassing stars like Luis Suárez, Christian Benteke, and prolific scorers such as Dejan Joveljic, Chicho Arango, and Cucho Hernández.
NYCFC will host Cincinnati on Wednesday and face Nashville next weekend, concluding their season on Decision Day in Montréal. Are they fully back on track? I’m uncertain. However, I don’t believe they ever truly fell as far as they appeared during that nine-game stretch without a win that lasted over two and a half months, despite many of their young talents still being sidelined on the depth chart.
What would Red Bull head coach Sandro Schwarz give for an investment of $20 million in his team? There might be a silver lining in the fact that one designated player (Dante Vanzeir) found the net, while another (Emil Forsberg) returned after being sidelined for nearly four months due to injury.
Nonetheless, the team seems to be spiraling, with no victories in almost two and a half months across all competitions. On a more positive note, they did officially secure a place in the playoffs this weekend, marking their 15th consecutive season of qualification. This streak holds the record for the longest in the history of professional, outdoor, team sports in the US (a mouthful of qualifiers, I admit, but still noteworthy). Therefore, it’s fair to say this season has been another success!
They concluded the weekend in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, level on points with their neighbor but trailing in wins (the primary tiebreaker; goal differential is the secondary one) and just two points clear of seventh-placed Charlotte.
12. that Charlotte side… Inter Miami have been trying with all their might to re-open the Supporters’ Shield race for one, and for two they now have zero margin for error if they’re to break the single-season points record set by the 2021 Revs. That’s the upshot of a disappointing 1-1 home draw with the Crown, who have found something over the past two outings after a prolonged slump of their own.
Back to the Herons: their older guys are starting to look a bit old:
Even so, they should’ve won this one – they doubled up Charlotte’s xG and Luis Suárez’s late miss was, indeed, unbelievable. But Miami’s lack of field coverage at multiple crucial spots can make them easy to play against (at times) in a way other top teams aren’t.
Credit to Charlotte for taking advantage, and then doing just enough to hang on to the point.
11. Miami left the Shield door open with that draw, but Columbus refused to walk through it, taking a draw of their own at D.C. United. It finished 2-2, with Christian Benteke bagging a brace and extending his MLS Golden Boot presented by Audi lead over second-place Bouanga to three, while Cucho Hernández registered 1g/1a.
These guys have been the two best 9s in the league this year, and play the role in completely different ways:
2-2 was a fair result as the Crew have struggled over the past three weeks to control games the way they do when they’re at their best.
They are up to 43 games over the past 7.5 months across all competitions. It’s been a lot.
10. CF Montréal took care of business in the second half of their 3-0 win over visiting San Jose. Josef Martínez got a brace, Bryce Duke a pair of assists and Caden Clark put up 1g/1a. It’s a trio of attackers that almost feel Mad Libbed together, but they have shown undeniable chemistry in a limited sample size.
It’s Clark – a onetime elite prospect who’s been adrift for years – who’s benefited most, as he essentially gets to play as a second forward in Laurent Courtois’s 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-1-2) with Josef as a pure No. 9 and Duke more of a 10. Clark’s now got 3g/3a in his past four games. In his previous two years, he had 1g/3a over nearly 2000 minutes for four teams across three leagues.
It’s awesome to see a rebirth like this, especially when the player in question is just 21.
The Quakes officially clinched their record fifth Wooden Spoon, and are on track to set a new record for defensive futility. Currently they’ve conceded 72 goals; the single-season record of 75 was set by that miserable 2019 FC Cincinnati side.
Montréal are even with Philly and TFC on 37 points, though with a game in hand on the Reds.
9. Those Reds, coming off a hard-fought midweek Canadian Championship loss at Vancouver, went to Chicago and took a 1-0 lead. They couldn’t make it stand up, though, as they conceded a mountain of possession over the final 15 minutes that Jonathan Dean eventually turned into an 84th-minute equalizer for the 1-1 draw.
Chicago are eliminated. TFC’s final two games are both at home, against the Red Bulls on Wednesday and then the finale vs. Miami next Saturday. They’re the only team that doesn’t play on Decision Day.
I’m guessing three points would be enough to get them in, though even a full six points wouldn’t clinch since both Montréal and Philly can get above 43 points.
8. Of course, if Philly were going to go over 43 points, you’d think they would have won at home against an Atlanta side that has looked mostly dead for weeks (months? years?) now. But it was actually the Five Stripes who played the better ball in this one, getting the fullbacks high to pull apart the Union’s midfield diamond and earning a deserved late-ish equalizer from Saba Lobjanidze.
That goal, and the 1-1 final, kept Atlanta’s playoff hopes alive (and badly damaged 9th-place Philly’s – their remaining schedule is brutal), but I want to point out an item of growing concern:
Alexey Miranchuk has had his moments, but they’ve been few and far between. And across this still very small sample size, he has not looked like the kind of No. 10 to elevate an attack, or even stitch it together in any meaningful
I’m not suggesting anyone panic; however, it’s important to note that we’ve witnessed one high-scoring Atalanta substitute (Luis Muriel) transition to MLS as a presumed starter and struggle significantly.
As previously stated, Philly remains in ninth place but faces upcoming games against Orlando and Columbus before they host Cincy on Decision Day.
“It’s undoubtedly going to come down to the final day for all these teams vying for a spot. We’ve placed ourselves in a situation where we still control our own fate, but our margin for error is extremely slim,” noted manager Jim Curtin. “Failing to secure those extra two points tonight makes things a bit more difficult; that much is clear.”
“We managed to play some decent soccer at times, yet at this juncture, no one remembers the number of opportunities you create. What ultimately matters is the three points, and tonight we didn’t achieve that.”
Atlanta and D.C. both sit on 34 points, their hopes flickering but still alive as we head into the next matchday.
7. New England and Nashville find themselves in a similar situation – their postseason hopes are dwindling but still technically viable following the Revs’ 1-0 victory over the visiting ‘Yotes, thanks to an 86th-minute header from right back Brandon Bye, who managed to get unmarked in the box as the game devolved into a Tactics Free Zone.
I wasn’t entirely in agreement with Nashville head coach BJ Callaghan’s choice to revert to a 4-4-2 diamond formation, as I believed it played right into the hands of a Revs team that poses a threat primarily when their fullbacks can advance.
“When we held possession, our intention was to stretch their diamond horizontally. I think you saw that during the goal; it manifested to some extent. That was a topic we discussed at halftime,” said Revs assistant Pablo Moreira, who stepped in while Caleb Porter was suspended. “Blair Gavin, our assistant coach, did an outstanding job analyzing the first half. We identified key points going into halftime based on video analysis, which we were able to exploit, and that was crucial for us.”
Nashville concluded the night in 13th place with 33 points, while the Revs sit two points behind in 14th, albeit with a game in hand. Both teams must secure victory in their remaining matches to have any realistic chance of playoff contention.
6. Orlando visited Frisco and delivered a decisive blow to FC Dallas’s 2024 campaign, following the same approach they have employed since mid-June: position your top players optimally, motivate them, and let them perform.
I’m impressed by the coordinated movement along the left flank to involve playmaker Martín Ojeda in the half-space before he sends the ball out to left back Rafael Santos, who made an overlapping run:
Crosses are inherently low-percentage attempts. However, when you have five players making runs into the box, the defense scrambling a bit, and a fullback with sufficient time to assess the situation and find an angle, it’s crucial to deliver that ball swiftly.
“Following our [loss] in Columbus, we had a clear plan with the players throughout the week. We aimed to dominate possession more effectively and sought to find spaces with conviction,” stated head coach Oscar Pareja afterward. “That was our agreement with the players. On the field, I witnessed them actively moving and supporting each other in possession. Our passing lines were strong, and our space occupation was effective. we had a very impressive first half.
“In the second half, there were moments when we maintained that same level of play and possibly could have scored a fourth goal.”
Orlando has now climbed to fourth place in the Eastern Conference and, given their current form (four victories in their last five matches; 9W-3L-2D in league play since mid-June), they are in a strong position to remain there, regardless of how impressive the Pigeons appeared in Harrison.
As for los Toros Tejanos… that really sums it up. They’re currently eight points behind ninth-place Portland, meaning they would need to win all their remaining matches while hoping the Timbers secure only one point from their last three games.
Not likely to occur, but Peter Luccin should still be considered for the full-time position.
5. St. Louis added further anguish for Sporting KC, securing a 3-1 victory in the season’s final Der-B-Que, although, with results from other matches, they were officially eliminated.
Their 2024 post-mortem will be released soon. Sporting’s analysis was published last week following their loss in the Open Cup final.
4. This week, I’m awarding Sebastian Driussi with our Pass of the Week for his assist that led to Guilherme Biro’s late equalizer during Austin’s 2-2 home draw against RSL:
Driussi hasn’t given fans much to celebrate this year—this assist marks only his third primary assist of the season. His body language has been off, and his tweets (or retweets) have been somewhat enigmatic. However, this moment served as a reminder of his potential during better times.
Nonetheless, Austin’s season is essentially over. They will need to secure victories in their final three matches, hope that Portland loses all three of theirs, and make up a 20-goal deficit in the process. It seems likely that significant changes are on the horizon this winter.
For RSL, dropping points late in the game after leading 2-0 highlights a troubling pattern. Since mid-July, their league record stands at 2 wins, 4 losses, and 3 draws. During this period, they have a goal differential of -8 from the 70th minute onward, the worst in the league. In contrast, over the first 22 games of the season, they enjoyed a +9 differential during that same timeframe, which was tied for the best in MLS.
Here are some key statistics that shed light on the situation:
- In the first 22 matches of the season, RSL managed to get 45.4% of their shots in the final 20 minutes on target, which ranked as the second-best percentage in the league, yielding a commendable .113 xG per shot.
- In the following 9 games, RSL saw their on-target shots in the final 20 minutes drop to 22.5%, the 27th-ranked figure in the league. Their xG per shot plummeted to .057, placing them at the bottom of the league by a significant margin.
Sometimes, the issue lies simply in the roster: “We sold our second-best attacker, and our best attacker is still dealing with injuries,” succinctly explains the Claret-and-Cobalt’s current challenges.
Although RSL currently sits in third place in the West, they are running out of time to regain the form that had them as strong contenders for most of the season. With only a two-point cushion over Colorado and Seattle, the fight for home-field advantage in the first round is becoming increasingly precarious.
3. A commendable point for Portland, despite the absence of Evander, was earned in Vancouver, even after a challenging start to the match:
The Timbers’ forwards quickly realized that they could not allow Tristan Blackmon to maneuver through pressure and shift the point of attack so effortlessly. He did not manage to execute another switch for the remainder of the game. Lacking both those switches and Ryan Gauld, who was sidelined due to an injury sustained in the CanChamp final on Wednesday, the ‘Caps found it challenging to create consistent threats going forward.
Nonetheless, head coach Vanni Sartini felt more joy than disappointment, rightly so considering Vancouver’s poor performances in their previous outings.
“I’m pleased that today’s performance was significantly better than the last two games in LA and against Toronto,” Sartini remarked. “I’m just frustrated we didn’t secure a win.”
Vancouver currently sits seventh in the Western Conference, two points ahead of the Timbers, who have dropped to ninth place despite achieving a decent result on the road.
2. The Timbers are now in ninth place as Minnesota United has unexpectedly become a winning machine. Their success is heavily attributed to new designated player No. 9, Kelvin Yeboah, who has been scoring consistently. According to MLS Communications, Yeboah has become the fourth player in league history to net goals in five of his first six MLS matches. Personally, I’ve dubbed him our Face of the Week after he scored his initial goal of the night using his face:
Yeboah scored twice during the match, bringing his tally to seven goals in six games. The other new designated player, Argentine midfielder Joaquín Pereyra, collected his first assist. The Loons dominated Colorado with a 3-0 victory, a match that was decidedly one-sided, and Yeboah played a pivotal role in the outcome.
“Kelvin has scored seven goals in six games. Can he maintain a goal-per-game average? Let’s keep our fingers crossed,” head coach Eric Ramsay stated in the postgame press conference, which he opened by accurately declaring it his team’s finest performance of the season. “He’s been precisely what we hoped for, acting as a solid reference point at number 9, someone who genuinely enhances the team’s culture. I believe we’ve developed a strong dynamic in our daily interactions, evident in the energy and commitment level of the group. His contributions have been significant in elevating that dynamic.”
“Beyond just scoring, he excels defensively as well. He maintains excellent connections with the team and establishes effective pressure. He is a very disciplined player. So, while, of course, I…
“I hope the goals keep coming, and I also wish for that aspect of the game to persist, as it is arguably vital for us.”
The Colorado team has unexpectedly dropped two out of three matches. While both of their games this week are at home, they face off against the first-place LA on Wednesday and a rising Sounders team next weekend.
1. Ultimately, only an exceptional performance by Steve Clark, along with a few fortunate stops from the woodwork, kept the score close during Houston’s 1-0 defeat at Seattle. The Dynamo struggled to create plays through midfield, and with Ezequiel Ponce and Latif Blessing sidelined due to minor injuries alongside long-term absences from Héctor Herrera (expected to return by Decision Day), Lawrence Ennali, and Nelson Quiñones (not returning until 2025), they were unable to pose any threat.
Houston’s remaining three matches include a home game against New England on Wednesday, followed by an away game at St. Louis over the weekend, and concluding with a home match against the first-place Galaxy on Decision Day.
The Sounders, who scored the sole goal through Paul Rothrock, remain determined and have maintained their momentum, achieving a record of 10 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws in the regular season since mid-June.
Their last three matches are scheduled against Vancouver away on Wednesday, at Colorado next weekend, and then at home against the Timbers on Decision Day.
If the situation in the West seems uncertain – at least for everything behind the Galaxy – it remains indeed just that.
