Is it difficult to predict NFL games this year? It’s not just about covering the spread either.
Last week, I ended up with a 7-9 record straight-up, following a chaotic Week 3 filled with upsets that disrupted survivor pools. Consequently, my overall straight-up record now stands at 24-24, reflecting the craziness of this season. Am I really at .500 straight-up? What is going on?
It was even tougher against the spread last week, finishing with a 6-10 record, which brings my total to 23-22-3. At least I’m still above .500 on the ATS picks. Interestingly, that record ties me for the top spot among the CBSSports.com expert picks. Truly, what a group we have.
Now, it’s time to turn this around. We’re entering the final week of September games before heading into October, a month when things typically start becoming clearer.
I’m optimistic I can get through this last week of September without any major issues. It can’t be worse than last week, right?
The Cowboys have dropped two consecutive home games, while the Giants had a strong performance against the Browns last week. Dallas is facing challenges on both lines, whereas the Giants had no trouble getting to Deshaun Watson last Sunday. However, the Cowboys are expected to improve their pass protection, and their defense will also be more effective. I’m picking Dallas to get back on track.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 19 (Result: Cowboys 20, Giants 15)
Bonus: SportsLine’s NFL expert Larry Hartstein is riding an impressive 22-8 ATS streak on Cowboys games, and we know he leans toward the Over in this prime-time matchup against the Giants. Find out which side he’s favoring against the spread at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a significant early division matchup with both teams coming off losses. The Saints’ offense faced reality last week in their defeat to the Eagles, and they now have to contend with an improved Falcons defense. The Atlanta offense will also face challenges against a solid Saints defense. Expect a low-scoring game, with the Saints likely pulling off an upset.
Pick: Saints 20, Falcons 17
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its launch, favors the Saints to cover against the Falcons in Week 4. Check out the other picks the model supports at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bengals are currently 0-3 and are not performing well, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Last week, the Panthers secured a victory with Andy Dalton at the helm, and now he faces off against his former team. Expect Dalton to have a strong performance against a Bengals defense struggling with various issues. This match is likely to be high-scoring, but ultimately, the Bengals will manage to salvage their season.
Pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 25
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Rams staged a comeback to defeat the 49ers last week, while the Bears faced a loss in Indianapolis. Chicago’s inability to establish a running game places significant pressure on Caleb Williams. The Rams, on the other hand, still have Matthew Stafford, who excels regardless of his receiving corps. Expect the Rams to secure the win with Stafford leading the way, pushing the Bears down to a 1-3 record.
Pick: Rams 26, Bears 20
Bonus: SportsLine’s NFL expert Jason La Canfora included this game among his early best bets, available every Monday morning at SportsLine. Check out the rest of his early Week 4 picks here.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This matchup stands out as one of the highlights of the week. The Vikings are 3-0 and enjoying great momentum, while the Packers sit at 2-1, having won two games with Malik Willis leading the charge at quarterback. The Packers’ defense has been exceptional, just like the Vikings’. As a result, this contest is expected to feature low scoring. Packers for the win.
Pick: Packers 21, Vikings 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars find themselves at 0-3 and are coming off a dismal loss on Monday night, which means they have a short week to prepare while struggling with their performance. Although the Texans had a rough outing against the Vikings last week, C.J. Stroud is likely to rebound effectively against a weak Jacksonville defensive unit. The Texans will claim victory.
Pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers are riding high with a 3-0 record, showcasing a style of play that translates well across different venues. Their physical defense is poised to stifle the Colts’ running game and challenge Anthony Richardson to take control. It’s unlikely he will succeed. The Steelers, along with Justin Fields, will generate enough offensive output to secure a win.
Pick: Steelers 20, Colts 16
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has reported a profit exceeding $7,000 for $100 players in top-rated NFL picks.
Since its inception, the model favors the Steelers to cover against the Colts in Week 4. Check out the additional picks the model supports at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Although the Broncos are on their second consecutive road game, they have remained in West Virginia. Last week, they played well and defeated the Bucs, yet this upcoming game presents a significantly tougher defense. This will pose challenges for Bo Nix. Aaron Rodgers found his rhythm last week, which should continue. Expect a strong performance from the Jets.
Pick: Jets 27, Broncos 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Eagles face their second consecutive road game against an NFC South team after their win against the Saints last week. The Bucs had a dismal performance in their defeat to the Broncos, which could have been due to a schedule quirk between games against the Lions and Eagles. With injuries affecting the Bucs’ defense and issues on the offensive line, those problems are likely to persist. Philadelphia is expected to take the win.
Pick: Eagles 23, Bucs 19
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Playing their second consecutive road game on a short week presents a challenge for the Commanders. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have shown promise but sit at 1-2 after suffering narrow defeats in their previous games. I anticipate Kyler Murray leading his team to a victory in a high-scoring matchup against Jayden Daniels. This game is expected to be entertaining.
Pick: Cardinals 33, Commanders 27
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Patriots face a lengthy trip and are struggling against a 49ers team dealing with numerous injuries. Despite their loss to the Rams last week, the 49ers are expected to rebound in this matchup. Brock Purdy should perform well, while the defense is likely to contain a struggling Patriots offense.
Pick: 49ers 24, Patriots 7
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The health of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will be key in this matchup. If he plays, the Chargers have a shot at victory. If he doesn’t, I still believe they will put up a competitive fight. The Chiefs are on a road trip and have not been as sharp this season. Expect a tight contest.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, <a
Both teams are entering this matchup following disappointing losses at home. The Raiders are contemplating a change at quarterback, while many in Cleveland are also expressing similar sentiments. Deshaun Watson’s performance has been subpar, but I believe he will improve in this game. The Browns will secure their second victory on the road this season.
Pick: Browns 23, Raiders 17
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This matchup carries significant weight for AFC dominance. The Bills are performing exceptionally well, sporting a 3-0 record, while the Ravens are coming off a noteworthy road victory against Dallas. The Ravens’ strategy against the Cowboys was effective, and they are likely to employ a similar approach here. Although Josh Allen has been brilliant, the question remains: how many opportunities will he get if Derrick Henry has a big game? I foresee the Ravens running their way to victory.
Pick: Ravens 24, Bills 21
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Titans are struggling with an 0-3 record, while the Dolphins are facing significant challenges at quarterback due to Tua Tagovailoa’s absence. Last year, Tennessee came back to defeat Miami in their matchup with Will Levis under center. Although Levis has struggled with turnovers this season, I believe he can find success in this game. The Titans will come away with the win.
Pick: Titans 25, Dolphins 21
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
This game serves as a critical proving ground for the Seahawks. With a 3-0 record, their schedule so far has not posed significant challenges, but this matchup will be different. The Lions have performed commendably on defense, presenting a tough test for Geno Smith. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense, which has yet to find its rhythm, is expected to thrive here. The Lions will come out on top.
Pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 20
Navigating a Turbulent NFL Season: Expert Picks and Predictions for Week 4
Understanding the Current NFL Landscape
As we move into Week 4 of the NFL season, teams are beginning to establish their identities. The early weeks have already shown us a mix of surprises, upsets, and standout performances. With injuries and roster changes affecting teams, it’s crucial to stay updated and informed for the best betting strategies and fantasy picks.
Key Trends to Watch
- Injury Reports: Always check the latest injury reports to get an idea of which players will be missing. Star players sitting out can drastically change a team’s performance.
- Home Field Advantage: Historically, teams playing at home tend to have a better win rate. Look for teams that have strong home crowds.
- Defensive vs. Offensive Matchups: Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of both the offensive and defensive units of the teams facing off.
Expert Predictions for Week 4
Let’s break down some of the most anticipated matchups of Week 4, including key player performances and outcomes that could impact your fantasy leagues and betting strategies.
Game Previews
1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
The Chiefs are looking to maintain their dominance against the Jets, who have struggled this season. Kansas City’s explosive offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, is likely to exploit New York’s defensive shortcomings.
- Key Players: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill
- Prediction: Chiefs win by 10+ points
2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
This NFC West showdown is expected to be a nail-biter. The 49ers boast a solid defense, while the Rams have shown flashes of brilliance. Look for a close game, but the 49ers are slightly favored.
- Key Players: Deebo Samuel, Aaron Donald
- Prediction: 49ers win by 3 points
3. Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The Bills are coming off a strong performance, while the Dolphins have struggled to find their rhythm. Expect Buffalo’s defense to make a significant impact in this matchup.
- Key Players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
- Prediction: Bills win by 7 points
Fantasy Football Insights
Week 4 brings an opportunity to optimize your fantasy football lineups. Here are some players to consider starting or benching based on current trends and matchups:
Top Start Candidates
| Player Name | Position | Matchup | Reason to Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | vs. NYJ | High-scoring potential against weak defense. |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | vs. LAR | Consistent target share and big-play ability. |
| Josh Allen | QB | vs. MIA | Dual-threat quarterback offers high upside. |
Players to Bench
| Player Name | Position | Matchup | Reason to Bench |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | QB | vs. BAL | Struggling against strong defenses. |
| Mike Evans | WR | vs. NO | Injuries and inconsistent production. |
| David Montgomery | RB | vs. PHI | Facing tough defensive line. |
Betting Strategies for Week 4
For those looking to place bets this week, consider these strategies to increase your chances of success:
- Shop for the Best Lines: Different sportsbooks may offer varying odds. Always compare before placing a bet.
- Focus on Live Betting: Monitoring games in real-time can provide valuable insights for in-game betting opportunities.
- Consider the Underdogs: Some teams may be undervalued due to their previous performances. Look for potential upsets.
Real-Life Case Study: Week 3 Upsets
In Week 3, we witnessed some significant upsets that changed the narrative for multiple teams. For instance:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Los Angeles Chargers, which many did not see coming. This showcased their potential, and they were previously considered underdogs.
- The Chicago Bears pulled off a surprise victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers, highlighting the importance of game-day readiness and strategy.
Strategies for Managing Injuries
Injuries are a common occurrence in the NFL and can significantly impact teams and players. Here are some strategies for managing injuries:
- Monitor Injury Reports: Stay updated on player injuries and possible returns throughout the week.
- Have Backup Plans: Ensure your fantasy roster has reliable backups in case your starters are ruled out last-minute.
- Adjust Betting Strategies: If a star player is injured, consider reevaluating your bets on that team’s games.
Final Thoughts on Week 4
As we enter Week 4, the NFL landscape continues to evolve. Keeping an eye on trends, injuries, and expert insights will enhance your betting strategies and fantasy football decisions. Engage with the community, share predictions, and stay informed to navigate this turbulent season more effectively.
