As we approach Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, you may be gearing up for an exciting lineup of games. However, if you’re seeking some last-minute insights, our NFL analysts are here to assist you.
To kick things off, analytics writer Seth Walder reviews five statistical trends that could prove crucial this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody highlights five players currently rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who are worth picking up and starting if you’re in a bind this weekend. Next, NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies five possible surprises, and NFL analyst Ben Solak suggests one intriguing bet to consider. insider Jeremy Fowler shares the latest buzz, rumors, and news you may have overlooked.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Intriguing bet
Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 2 winners
Can Marvin Harrison Jr. discover some speed against the Rams?
This is an odd statistic: Harrison’s maximum speed in Week 1 reached only 16.7 mph, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This measurement includes all plays, not just his time as a ball carrier. I must emphasize that maximum speeds often depend on various circumstances. If a player receives the ball in space and dashes toward the end zone, it’s likely they will outrun someone like DK Metcalf on a dig route. However, 16.7 miles per hour is undeniably low. Since the start of last season, there have been 1,730 games where wide receivers took at least 25 offensive snaps. Harrison’s Week 1 peak speed ranks an alarming No. 1,699 on that list. Filtering out the plays when he had the ball yields similarly concerning results.
I consulted a senior analytics staff member from a different team to gauge their level of concern on a scale from 1 to 10 if they were the Cardinals. They rated it a four, noting it’s just one game and that Harrison did manage to settle into zones on some of his vertical routes. However, they also acknowledged that Harrison appeared lacking in explosiveness. (Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice offered a plausible explanation, indicating that the Bills played a lot of cloud coverage against Arizona, which could understandably slow down any receiver running routes into that coverage.)
This Sunday against the Rams will serve as a critical test. Was Week 1 merely an anomaly or the beginning of a concerning trend? If it’s the latter, that spells trouble for Arizona’s prospects against Los Angeles.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Will Chase Young outshine Tyler Guyton — or vice versa?
This matchup features two players who had intriguing performances in Week 1. Young displayed signs of a potential breakout, despite not recording any sacks, as he improved his jump by reducing his average pass-rush get-off time from 0.81 seconds last season to 0.66 seconds this season. This improvement contributed to a pass rush win rate of 43% at edge, ranking fourth best for Week 1 among edge rushers.
Conversely, Guyton achieved an 84% pass block win rate in Week 1—a bit below average, yet solid considering he frequently faced off against Myles Garrett. The rookie offensive lineman for the Cowboys demonstrated strong performance throughout the game.
% PBWR (a shade above average for a tackle) when matched up against anyone other than Garrett. If I had to choose one side, I’m placing my bet on Young. However, this matchup could easily swing either way and will provide significant insights into both players.
Can the Raiders’ motion-heavy strategy offer them a fighting chance against the Ravens?
In Week 1, the Raiders deployed a man in motion on 48% of their snaps under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who utilized this approach merely 22% of the time while in Chicago last season. Although the Raiders managed only 10 points against the Chargers, the motion scheme proved beneficial. The plays featuring a man in motion at the snap last Sunday yielded 0.48 more EPA per play compared to those without it (though the overall results were still negative… but in context, it’s progress). In Week 2, they will face the Ravens, who pioneered the motion-at-the-snap concept several years ago.
Will the absence of Tyson Campbell in the Jaguars’ secondary provide a boost for the Cleveland passing game?
In Week 1, Campbell showcased his skills against a Miami team featuring two top-tier wide receivers, allowing zero receptions on one target through 29 coverage snaps, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Regrettably, he was sidelined by a hamstring injury, placing him on injured reserve. In contrast, Ronald Darby allowed 174 yards, though it’s worth noting he faced Tyreek Hill and a 60-yard reception from Jaylen Waddle was incorrectly charged to him. Nonetheless, it is clear that Jacksonville is struggling without Campbell.
This situation presents a much-needed opportunity for the Browns since their passing game was dismal in Week 1, with Deshaun Watson registering a 9.3 QBR — the lowest among all quarterbacks last week. Additionally, Jacksonville’s low pass rush win rate (29%) in Week 1 is another promising sign for Cleveland.
Can Jared Verse strengthen his bid for Defensive Rookie of the Year against the Cardinals?
No rookie edge rusher outperformed Verse in Week 1 — not even close. His 33% pass rush win rate at the edge ranked sixth-best at that position, complemented by a sack. Although it’s just one game, I would honestly favor him for Defensive Rookie of the Year at this early stage. Sunday’s matchup against another first-round talent from 2023, Paris Johnson Jr., who recorded a solid 92% PBWR in Week 1, will be an important gauge in determining which team gains an advantage.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers to grab and start this week
Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (28.5% rostered): One takeaway from the Raiders’ performance in Week 1 is the fluidity of their backfield. Mattison led the backfield in snaps and transformed nine touches into 16.2 fantasy points, aided by a 31-yard receiving touchdown. Additionally, he received six targets compared to Zamir White’s two. These
Stats are particularly notable as the Raiders are significant underdogs against the Ravens this week, which could work in Mattison’s favor, given that he led the backfield in routes run against the Chargers.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams (26.5% rostered): With Puka Nacua placed on injured reserve, Matthew Stafford will require assistance beyond Cooper Kupp. Kupp received a career-high 21 targets in Week 1, which is impressive, but the Rams must distribute the ball more evenly to alleviate his burden and secure victories. L.A. holds a 1-6 record in regular-season games when Kupp has been targeted 15 or more times. Robinson could emerge as that crucial support for the Rams. Remember, he finished the last season strong, consistently scoring over 10 fantasy points, finding the end zone, or surpassing 80 receiving yards in Weeks 11-17.
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Which players could excel in fantasy for the Rams now that Nacua is sidelined?
Tristan H. Cockcroft analyzes the Rams’ offense in the absence of Puka Nacua.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (14.4% rostered): In Week 1, the Commanders’ defense allowed the second-highest number of fantasy points to wide receivers. While Robinson didn’t match Malik Nabers in receiving yards (44 to 66) or routes run, he still topped the Giants with 12 targets. Robinson should secure numerous catches against Washington, primarily from the slot, where he executed almost all of his routes in Week 1. It’s also significant that Robinson was frequently Daniel Jones’ primary target on those throws.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (7.1% rostered): I understand that Jones managed only 4.9 fantasy points last week against the Vikings. However, his position as the starter is precarious, and he must rebound rapidly. Week 2 offers an excellent opportunity for him to do just that. The Commanders’ defense surrendered 29 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield, presenting Jones with a prime chance to excel. Over seven career games against Washington, Jones has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.2% rostered): The Bengals’ offense faced challenges in Week 1 against the Patriots, yet Iosivas shone as a key player for Cincinnati. He led the team in routes run and matched Ja’Marr Chase with six targets, playing a critical role in the absence of Tee Higgins. With an anticipated high-scoring matchup against the Chiefs and Higgins potentially sidelined again, Iosivas could see an increase in targets while playing alongside Chase.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
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Marvin Harrison Jr. rebounds against the Rams
After registering only one catch for 4 yards in his debut against the Bills last week, Harrison is expected to see an increase in his target share on Sunday against the zone-heavy Rams defense. The Cardinals have the capability to create openings for Harrison to exploit the intermediate areas while also making vertical plays against the coverage’s outer third. I anticipate Harrison surpassing 80 receiving yards in this matchup.
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The Jets’ defense capitalizes on Will Levis’ mistakes
In Tennessee’s Week 1 defeat against the Bears, Levis struggled with three turnovers, making poor decisions and hampering his efforts by extending plays unnecessarily. Due to his aggressive throwing style, the Jets’ secondary will have opportunities to make plays on the ball come Sunday. This game presents a chance for cornerback Sauce Gardner to potentially secure his first interception of the season.
Najee Harris reaches the end zone against the Broncos
In the Week 1 victory over the Falcons, Harris recorded 20 rushing attempts, and I expect a similarly run-heavy approach from coordinator Arthur Smith in this Sunday’s contest against the Broncos. This strategy embodies the identity of the Steelers’ offense. I predict that Harris will find the end zone for the first time in 2024, likely through a goal-line carry.
Baker Mayfield relies on the pass against the Lions
In the Week 1 win over the Commanders, Mayfield demonstrated efficiency by completing 24 of 30 passes. However, with the Lions’ strong run defense, I foresee Mayfield and the Buccaneers turning to the passing game more heavily. Expect Mayfield to attempt over 40 passes on Sunday, a feat he has achieved 14 times throughout his career.
Colby Parkinson plays a defined role in the Rams’ pass game
With Nacua sidelined, Kupp will remain the primary target against the Cardinals this Sunday. However, keep an eye on Parkinson as well. In Week 1, Parkinson caught 4 of 5 targets for 47 yards against the Lions. Additionally, coach Sean McVay can utilize him as an underneath option for Stafford, creating more opportunities for catch-and-run plays. I anticipate that Parkinson will secure at least five receptions in this matchup.
Solak: One intriguing bet for this week’s games
Isiah Pacheco, longest rush OVER 14.5 yards (-125)
Last season, the Chiefs’ running back amassed 130 yards on 18 carries against Cincinnati, featuring runs of 37 and 35 yards. With defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo having to dedicate significant resources to address the Patrick Mahomes challenge, his run defense has taken a hit, particularly against the Chiefs. This trend appears to persist this season, as the Bengals struggled against an average Patriots offensive line in Week 1, with Rhamondre Stevenson accumulating 120 yards on 25 carries, which included runs of 17, 16, and 14 yards.
The Bengals have a troubling tendency to allow explosive runs; they ranked fifth worst in the league for runs over 10 yards given up last season, and they haven’t made any substantial improvements to their defensive front seven. This is why I’m counting on Pacheco to break off a significant run (or possibly two or three), especially since the Chiefs will run the ball to help protect rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia from facing prolonged pass protection against Cincinnati star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.
0:48
Why Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy numbers will only continue to rise
Mike Clay explains that Isiah Pacheco’s snap share for the Chiefs will remain high, ensuring steady production for fantasy managers.
Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff
The 49ers may determine as early as Saturday whether to place star running back Christian McCaffrey (right calf/Achilles) on injured reserve. The situation seems to be trending that way, but no final decision had been reached as of Friday evening.
This could come as a surprise, but Thursday’s practice was viewed as a setback. The 49ers are prepared to sacrifice some weeks in September or even October to guarantee his health down the stretch. McCaffrey was unexpectedly scratched before the game in Week 1, with Jordan Mason stepping in and rushing 28 times for 147 yards in the victory against the Jets.
The Dolphins are confident in backup quarterback Skylar Thompson starting if Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is unable to play, as expected. While Miami will certainly need to seek additional quarterback depth, they had not prioritized that process as of late Friday while evaluating Tagovailoa’s third concussion in two years. Ryan Tannehill
Drafted by the Dolphins in the first round of 2012, he stands as the leading option available in the free agent market.
The Broncos are almost entirely focused on preparing quarterback Justin Fields to take the helm for the Steelers this Sunday. A Russell Wilson comeback game is not anticipated at the moment, although Wilson (right calf) is officially marked as questionable and may improve as the weekend progresses. In the Week 1 victory over the Falcons, Fields completed 17 of 23 passes for 156 yards and ran for 57 yards.
Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison’s right ankle issue is not viewed as a long-term concern. He is set to miss this week and possibly the next, but is expected to return to the field fairly soon.
Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze (questionable, right knee) is eager to play on Sunday. The decision lies with Chicago regarding whether to protect him. He is considered a game-time decision.
Meanwhile, Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (questionable, ankle) is making progress and is expected to gain clarity on his status by Saturday. He sustained a left ankle injury in early August.
Week 2 NFL Preview: Key Trends, Fantasy Sleepers, and Matchup Insights
Key Trends to Watch in Week 2
As we dive into Week 2 of the NFL season, it’s essential to keep an eye on key trends that may influence game outcomes and fantasy performances. Here are some critical trends to watch:
- Home Field Advantage: Historically, teams playing at home have a better win rate. In Week 2, this trend often continues, particularly for teams that were strong at home the previous season.
- Defensive Adjustments: Teams often make significant adjustments after Week 1. Pay attention to defensive performances and how they adapt to opposing offenses.
- Injury Reports: Check the latest injury updates. Players who are limited in practice may not perform at their best, impacting both game outcomes and fantasy value.
Fantasy Sleepers to Consider
Finding hidden gems in fantasy football can make or break your season. Here are some intriguing fantasy sleepers for Week 2:
Quarterback Sleepers
- Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) - After a strong Week 1 performance, Tua faces a vulnerable defense that struggled against the pass.
- Daniel Jones (New York Giants) – With a favorable matchup against a weak secondary, Jones could surprise many fantasy owners.
Running Back Sleepers
- Rashaad Penny (Philadelphia Eagles) - With Miles Sanders banged up, Penny could see increased touches and provide excellent value.
- Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos) – Look for Williams to take on a more significant role after a slow start in Week 1.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
- Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts) – With a favorable matchup and emerging chemistry with his quarterback, Pittman is set for a breakout game.
- Rondale Moore (Arizona Cardinals) – His versatility and ability to make plays could lead to a productive week against a struggling defense.
Tight End Sleepers
- David Njoku (Cleveland Browns) – Njoku is poised for a big game as the Browns face a defense that has struggled against tight ends.
- Gerald Everett (Los Angeles Chargers) – With the Chargers’ offense in full swing, Everett might find himself in a position to score.
Matchup Insights: Key Games to Watch
Week 2 features several compelling matchups that could have significant implications for both teams and fantasy players. Here are some key insights:
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
| Category | Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 300 | 250 |
| Rushing Yards | 120 | 150 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
The Dolphins’ high-octane offense could exploit the Ravens’ secondary, making Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill strong fantasy plays. However, watch for the Ravens’ ground game led by J.K. Dobbins, who has a favorable matchup against Miami’s run defense.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
This classic rivalry game is always unpredictable. The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers will look to exploit the Bears’ inconsistent secondary, while Justin Fields aims to make a statement against Green Bay’s defense. Key players to watch include:
- Aaron Jones (RB, Packers) – Jones has the potential for a big game both on the ground and through the air.
- David Montgomery (RB, Bears) – Montgomery could find running lanes against a defense that allowed significant rushing yards in Week 1.
Injury Updates and Their Impact
Keeping track of injuries is crucial in the NFL. Here are some notable injuries that could affect player performance this week:
| Player | Position | Injury Status | Fantasy Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Questionable | Potentially limited targets if he plays. |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | Out | Alexander Mattison becomes a must-start. |
| George Kittle | TE | Probable | Can be a solid option if fully healthy. |
Key Takeaways for Week 2
As you prepare for Week 2, keep these points in mind:
- Research player matchups and trends to make informed decisions.
- Monitor injury reports closely; they can change game dynamics quickly.
- Consider starting fantasy sleepers who may exceed expectations based on matchups.
Benefits of Analyzing Trends and Matchups
Understanding key trends and matchups can significantly enhance your game strategy, whether for betting or fantasy leagues. Here are several benefits:
- Enhanced Decision Making: Analyzing trends allows you to make informed starts and sits in your fantasy lineup.
- Improved Betting Strategies: Knowing team performances and matchup history can help you make better betting choices.
- Increased Engagement: Following key players and teams enhances your overall NFL experience.
Practical Tips for Week 2
To maximize your success this week, consider these practical tips:
- Check multiple sources for injury news and updates.
- Evaluate past performances against similar opponents to gauge potential outcomes.
- Engage with community discussions to gain insights from other football enthusiasts.
Case Studies: Previous Week 2 Performances
Examining past performances can provide insights into potential outcomes. Here are a few notable case studies:
- 2021 Season: Teams that lost in Week 1 often bounce back in Week 2, particularly if they have home-field advantage.
- 2020 Season: Several running backs who faced top defenses in Week 1 found success in Week 2 as defensive teams adjusted.
By keeping these insights and strategies in mind, you’ll be better prepared for Week 2 of the NFL season. Stay informed, stay engaged, and enjoy the thrilling action on the field!
