As a thought exercise, let’s examine the top five starting pitchers in Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as we head into the weekend:
1. Tarik Skubal, who is enjoying a breakout season following Tommy John surgery in 2016 and flexor tendon surgery in 2022.
2. Hunter Greene, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and was placed on the injured list last week due to right elbow soreness.
3. Erick Fedde, who revitalized his career in South Korea and subsequently signed a two-year, $15 million contract.
Cardinals starter Erick Fedde AP
4. Chris Sale, who required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing a five-year, $145 million extension in 2019 and made only 31 starts in the first four years of that deal.
5. Reynaldo Lopez, who primarily served as a reliever over the past three seasons.
Exploring further into the top 20 reveals a plethora of similar narratives: former relievers (like Seth Lugo and Michael King), unexpected breakouts or recoveries (Tyler Anderson, Ronel Blanco, Luis Gil, and Tanner Houck), pitchers exceeding expectations after long recovery times from arm injuries (Gil, Garrett Crochet, and two-time Tommy John surgery recipient Cole Ragans), as well as those who signed relatively brief free-agent contracts in the offseason (Fedde, Lopez, and Lugo).
With the offseason approaching, I pose this question: Why would any team commit to signing a starter for longer than three or four years when:
1. The injury rate among pitchers is alarmingly high. How can one accurately predict who is likely to remain healthy? Even the usually reliable Gerrit Cole faced injuries this season, missing half the year.
2. Modern technology allows for improved performance through enhancements in velocity, movement, and pitch selection. For instance, Fedde left the United States as a struggling first-round talent, but returned with improved velocity and a cutter, transforming into a top-notch performer.
3. How many potential starters, previously utilized as relievers, remain untapped? The success of players like Lugo, King, Lopez, Zach Littell, and Jordan Hicks in recent years illustrates the potential that exists.
I want to clarify that I shared this theory with four heads of baseball operations. Each indicated, in various ways, that while it is easy to recommend a strategy, it becomes significantly more challenging when faced with real decision-making pressures — including expectations from fans, media scrutiny, and the desire to win. In such an environment, it is quite difficult to adhere strictly to sound business practices when it comes to pitcher contracts.
I should also emphasize that I support players, so if Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell — the three most prominent starters anticipated in free agency — secure lucrative contracts, that’s completely fine by me. I expect they will all perform well. However, I don’t believe it’s a wise investment in today’s game.
Giants pitcher Blake Snell AP
The top position players are proving to offer far more value for substantial investments. Aaron Judge received the largest free-agent contract after the 2022 season, and Shohei Ohtani, who earned the biggest deal last offseason while currently serving solely as a hitter, are likely MVP candidates. High-profile free-agent contracts, such as those for Bryce Harper and Corey Seager, seem to be paying off as well. There is a long way to go, yet the extensive six-plus-year deals are generally safer bets on hitters who have ample prime years left, particularly in an era characterized by diminished offensive production.
But what of starting pitching, especially since one factor in the decline of offensive output is the growing trend of frequently using dominant relievers? Starters are tasked with fewer innings and, as a result, are facing more injuries. This trend might imply that a durable, high-caliber starter like Burnes holds greater value than ever, especially as he approaches the conclusion of his age-29 season.
I anticipate he will command a strong position in the market. However, would you trust any starter to remain healthy for six or more years? How would you approach structuring such a contract? Consider how Washington successfully navigated a seven-year, $210 million contract with Max Scherzer, while alternatively experiencing a disaster with Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245 million deal and Patrick Corbin’s six-year, $140 million contract.
Dodger pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is currently on the IL. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
If you had to break down the odds, what would be your Over/Under for the number of starts Burnes, Fried, and Snell would make over the next six years? If 180 starts is the maximum for each, would you set the line at 150? 140? 130? Even pitchers like Cole and Zack Wheeler, who are models of durability and excellence, have faced challenges — with Cole suffering an arm injury in the fifth year of his nine-year deal.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s appealing qualities in the previous offseason market included his age of just 25 and his exceptional pitching arsenal. This led to a competitive bidding war, with the Dodgers securing a 12-year, $325 million contract — surpassing Cole’s record for pitchers. Unfortunately, Yamamoto endured a strained rotator cuff after 14 starts and last pitched on June 15, leaving Los Angeles hopeful for his return next month.
Do the Yankees and Mets feel relieved for finishing as runners-up for Yamamoto? There’s still uncertainty ahead for the right-hander, but there’s potential for him to regain his health and reach a Cy Young-level performance. However, one year into his contract, his value has already diminished. In contrast, the Cubs’ lesser-known signing of fellow Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga for four years and $53 million has proven favorable thus far.
Marcus Stroman AP
After missing out on Yamamoto, the Yankees pivoted to Marcus Stroman, who has demonstrated durability and above-average performance on a two-year, $37 million deal, having logged 127 ¹/₃ innings thus far. He stands to gain control of an $18 million player option for 2026 if he reaches 140 innings. The Mets have Sean Manaea at $14.5 million (likely to opt out of his $13.5 million option for 2025) and Luis Severino at $13 million.
While they have also maintained good health and performance, the transparency of their contracts is evident from the beginning. In contrast, Yamamoto’s deal extends until the end of the 2035 season.
One could argue that elite starting pitchers are crucial in the postseason. However, Texas captured the World Series last year with a rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Jordan Montgomery, and a fading Max Scherzer, all without Jacob deGrom, who has only made six starts (the last on April 28, 2023) in his five-year, $185 million deal with Texas. This indicates that having reliable starters, none bound by long-term contracts, who can perform when it counts is a successful strategy.
It will be intriguing to see the duration and financial terms for pitchers who excelled on essentially one-year deals aimed at rebuilding their value — think Snell, Manaea, Severino, and Michael Wacha. Or perhaps teams will learn to seek out the next iteration of these pitchers.
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Evaluating the Future: Why Long-Term Contracts for Starting Pitchers May No Longer Be Sound Business
The Changing Landscape of Major League Baseball
In recent years, the dynamics of Major League Baseball (MLB) have shifted dramatically, particularly concerning player contracts. As teams strive to balance performance, financial sustainability, and competitive edge, the long-term contracts for starting pitchers are increasingly coming under scrutiny. This article explores the factors contributing to this change and presents a detailed evaluation of why investing heavily in long-term contracts for starting pitchers may no longer be a sound business decision.
Key Factors Influencing Contract Decisions
Several factors have significantly influenced the decision-making process regarding long-term contracts for starting pitchers:
- Player Performance Trends: The volatility of pitcher performance is a crucial aspect. Starting pitchers often face declining performance due to age, injuries, or changes in pitching mechanics.
- Injury Risks: The demanding nature of a pitcher’s role places them at a higher risk of injuries. This unpredictability makes long-term commitments risky for teams.
- Analytics and Data-Driven Decisions: The rise of analytics has led teams to evaluate players based on performance metrics rather than traditional stats. This shift affects how teams view long-term contracts.
- Market Dynamics: The influx of young talent and the increasing number of effective relievers have changed the market dynamics, making it unnecessary to heavily invest in starting pitchers.
Performance Volatility and Risk
Starting pitchers often exhibit performance volatility that can complicate the justification for long-term contracts. Here’s how:
- Aging Curve: As pitchers age, their effectiveness tends to decline. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced after the age of 30.
- Injury History: Many pitchers experience injuries that impact their performance and availability. For example, a pitcher with a history of elbow or shoulder injuries may not be reliable over a multi-year contract.
- Pitching Mechanics: Changes in a pitcher’s mechanics, often in response to injuries or fatigue, can lead to decreased effectiveness. Long-term contracts may not pay off if a pitcher can’t maintain their performance level.
The Impact of Analytics
The incorporation of analytics in baseball has reshaped how teams evaluate players, particularly starting pitchers:
- Advanced Metrics: Metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) provide a clearer picture of a pitcher’s potential, often leading to more informed decisions about contract length.
- Pitch Usage Trends: Teams are increasingly aware of how pitch usage affects longevity. Overuse of pitchers can lead to injuries, causing teams to reconsider long-term investments.
- Value of Young Talent: Teams are now focusing on developing young pitchers through their minor league systems, reducing the need for expensive long-term contracts.
Market Dynamics: The Rise of Young Pitchers
The emergence of young, cost-controlled pitching talent has shifted the market landscape:
- Cost-Effectiveness: Teams can find effective young pitchers in their farm systems, allowing them to avoid the high costs associated with long-term contracts.
- Relief Pitcher Effectiveness: The rise in the effectiveness of relief pitchers has led teams to consider using a “bullpen game” strategy, which de-emphasizes the need for a traditional ace.
- Increased Depth: Teams now prioritize depth in their pitching rotations, ensuring they have several viable options rather than over-relying on a single player.
Benefits of Short-Term Agreements
Short-term contracts can offer multiple benefits for MLB teams:
- Flexibility: Short-term contracts allow teams to adjust their rosters without being tied to long commitments, facilitating better decision-making based on current performance trends.
- Opportunity to Assess Talent: Teams can evaluate pitchers on shorter contracts, making it easier to assess their viability without a long-term commitment.
- Financial Prudence: Shorter contracts can help teams manage their budgets more effectively, ensuring they can allocate resources to other areas of the roster.
Case Studies of Long-Term Contracts Gone Wrong
Several high-profile long-term contracts for starting pitchers have not yielded the expected returns:
| Pitcher | Contract Value | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| David Price | $217 million (7 years) | Injury struggles and inconsistent performance |
| CC Sabathia | $161 million (7 years) | Declining performance and injuries in later years |
| Jake Arrieta | $75 million (3 years) | Sharp decline in effectiveness post-contract |
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Team Executives
Insights from team executives reveal the shifting perspective on long-term contracts:
“We’ve learned the hard way that locking up pitchers for long terms can backfire. The landscape has changed, and we need to adapt. Investing in multiple younger pitchers gives us better long-term stability.” — MLB Team Executive
Practical Tips for Teams Considering Contracts
For teams contemplating contracts for starting pitchers, here are practical tips to ensure sound decision-making:
1. Assess Injury History
Conduct a thorough evaluation of the pitcher’s injury history to gauge potential risks.
2. Leverage Analytics
Utilize advanced analytics to assess performance trends and future projections before making contract decisions.
3. Prioritize Flexibility
Consider shorter contracts that allow for roster adjustments while still maintaining competitive performance.
4. Develop Homegrown Talent
Invest in the development of young pitchers within your farm system to build a sustainable rotation.
5. Focus on Depth
Avoid over-reliance on a single pitcher by building a deep roster capable of withstanding the ups and downs of the season.
Conclusion: Rethinking Long-Term Contracts
As MLB continues to evolve, the rationale behind long-term contracts for starting pitchers is being reevaluated. The combination of performance volatility, injury risks, advancements in analytics, and the emergence of young talent is prompting teams to reconsider their strategies. In an era where flexibility and adaptability are paramount, the future of starting pitcher contracts may very well lie in short-term agreements that offer teams the best chance for success.
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