ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – John Elway admits that not selecting quarterback Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL draft is likely his most significant error as general manager of the Denver Broncos.
“Last year I went (golfing) with him, and I thought to myself, ’How long will it take him to realize that I chose Bradley Chubb over him?’ It took about two and a half holes,” Elway remembered during a recent visit on Barstool Sports’ “Pardon my Take” podcast.
“I really liked him. Unfortunately, things didn’t pan out. He was definitely my kind of player. Not picking Josh is probably the biggest mistake of my time as GM.”
Elway overlooked the strong-armed quarterback who had managed to complete only 56% of his passes during two seasons at windy Wyoming, located just a short drive up Interstate 25 from Denver.
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Instead, with their fifth overall selection that year, Elway opted for Chubb, a pass rusher from NC State who struggled with injuries while in Denver and was ultimately traded to the Miami Dolphins.
After signing Case Keenum—fresh off an impressive season in Minnesota—Elway still felt the sting from choosing another tall QB from a small school just two years earlier.
Following their third Super Bowl victory celebration, Elway selected Paxton Lynch out of Memphis with the 26th overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft; this decision marked one of his worst choices during his tenure managing the Broncos roster.
Lynch lost his starting job twice to seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian and started only four games before being released by the Broncos in 2018.
The combination of choosing Lynch and passing on Allen triggered a steep decline for what was once an esteemed franchise—they have not reached playoff contention since their Super Bowl win at the end of the 2015 season.
The Broncos have cycled through thirteen different starting quarterbacks since Peyton Manning’s retirement—a number expected to increase this season unless veteran Jarrett Stidham can fend off rookie Bo Nix and reclamation project Zach Wilson in what has become a three-way quarterback contest.
No contender has distinguished themselves as yet.
Elway completed his Hall of Fame playing career with back-to-back Super Bowl championships during the late ’90s before rejoining Denver’s franchise as director of player personnel in 2011. The following year he took on additional responsibilities as executive vice president of football operations — replacing Tim Tebow with Manning—who steered Denver to two Super Bowls within four seasons.
In his initial five years at management’s helm he achieved a record of 64-26 but saw it decline to32-48 overhis last five seasons before stepping away after finishing upthe2020season.
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John Elway Reflects on Passing Up Josh Allen as His Biggest GM Mistake
The Impact of the Decision
In recent interviews, John Elway, the legendary Denver Broncos quarterback and former general manager, candidly reflected on his biggest mistake in his tenure as a GM: passing up on quarterback Josh Allen during the 2018 NFL Draft. This decision has sparked debates among fans and analysts alike, with many considering it a turning point in the franchise’s trajectory.
Why Josh Allen Stood Out
During the 2018 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills selected Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. Several factors highlighted his potential:
- Physical Attributes: Standing at 6’5″ and weighing around 237 pounds, Allen possesses remarkable size and athleticism, making him a formidable presence on the field.
- Strong Arm: Allen’s cannon-like arm allows him to make deep throws that few quarterbacks can achieve.
- Dual-Threat Capability: With his ability to run, Allen brings a dynamic element to the quarterback position, making him a dual-threat against defenses.
Elway’s Evaluation Process
In the lead-up to the 2018 Draft, Elway and his scouting team conducted extensive evaluations of several quarterback prospects, including Allen, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen. The decision-making process involved:
- Scouting Reports: Analyzing performance metrics and game footage of each prospect.
- Interviews: Assessing each player’s character and mental fortitude through interviews.
- Team Needs: Considering the immediate needs of the Denver Broncos following the retirement of quarterback Peyton Manning.
Comparing Quarterbacks: A Table Analysis
| Quarterback | Draft Position | 2023 Stats | Team Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 7th Overall | 4,283 Yards, 35 TDs, 14 INTs | AFC Championship Appearance (2020) |
| Baker Mayfield | 1st Overall | 3,014 Yards, 10 TDs, 8 INTs | Playoff Appearance (2020) |
| Sam Darnold | 3rd Overall | 2,208 Yards, 7 TDs, 11 INTs | No Significant Success |
| Josh Rosen | 10th Overall | 1,100 Yards, 11 TDs, 14 INTs | No Significant Success |
Elway’s Regret
Reflecting on the decision during various interviews, Elway has expressed deep regret over passing on Allen. His comments have highlighted several key points:
- Missed Opportunity: Elway believes that Allen was the missing piece that could have propelled the Broncos back into Super Bowl contention.
- Franchise Impact: The decision to choose other players instead has had long-lasting implications for the team’s performance and roster stability.
- Learning Experience: Elway views this mistake as a crucial learning point in his GM career, emphasizing the need for thorough evaluation and intuition in drafting quarterbacks.
Benefits of Strong Quarterback Play
Elway’s reflections indicate that securing a strong quarterback is vital for a team’s success. Here are some benefits of having a top-tier quarterback:
- Consistency: A reliable quarterback can provide stability for the team year after year.
- Leadership: Great quarterbacks often inspire their teammates, fostering a winning culture.
- Fan Engagement: Star quarterbacks attract fan interest and can lead to increased ticket sales and merchandise revenue.
Case Studies: Teams with Strong Quarterbacks
Analyzing teams that have enjoyed success with top quarterbacks sheds light on their importance:
- New England Patriots: Tom Brady’s leadership and skills translated into six Super Bowl victories.
- Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers has consistently kept the Packers competitive, leading them to a Super Bowl win in 2010.
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes has transformed the Chiefs into perennial contenders, resulting in a Super Bowl championship in 2020.
First-Hand Experience: Elway’s Quarterback Journey
As a Hall of Fame quarterback, Elway knows the importance of the position better than most. His own journey included:
- Overcoming Adversity: Early in his career, Elway faced criticism but managed to develop into a two-time Super Bowl champion.
- Mentoring Young Players: Elway has often emphasized the importance of supporting and mentoring young quarterbacks to foster their development.
- Evaluating Talent: His own playing experience gives him a unique perspective on what qualities to look for in a successful quarterback.
Practical Tips for NFL Scouts and GMs
Based on Elway’s experiences and current trends in the NFL, here are some practical tips for scouting and drafting quarterbacks:
- Focus on Game Film: Analyze not just statistics but also game footage to understand a player’s decision-making and execution under pressure.
- Prioritize Character: Assess a player’s character and work ethic during interviews to ensure they fit into the team culture.
- Evaluate Athleticism: Look for dual-threat capabilities, which can add depth to a quarterback’s skill set and enhance the offense.
The Future for the Denver Broncos
Looking ahead, the Denver Broncos face challenges regarding their quarterback situation. With Elway stepping down from his GM role, the future will depend on the new management’s ability to learn from past mistakes, such as the decision to pass on Josh Allen. This reflection serves as a reminder of the importance of strategic planning and foresight in the NFL.
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