With roughly 80% of the 2024 season completed, we have a clearer picture of how the significant award races may unfold.
The Cy Young races appear to have distinct leaders, with left-handed pitchers Chris Sale (NL) and Tarik Skubal (AL) standing out as the clear frontrunners in their respective leagues. In contrast, the Rookie of the Year contests are still very much in contention, thanks to the influx of young talent. You could argue for several candidates—approximately half a dozen in each league—particularly as the final month of the season will greatly influence the outcome.
However, the discussion surrounding the Most Valuable Player is a different story. Get ready for a ride.
In the American League, the competition seems to be between two players enjoying exceptional seasons: Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. (Interestingly, this list does not include Juan Soto and Gunnar Henderson.) In the National League, this year has been a bit quieter in terms of standout performances, leading to what appears to be a four-way race, which largely depends on how one values individual contributions—plus a strong consideration for a fifth player.
Since minute WAR decimals don’t truly hold significant weight, it can be argued that it’s effectively a tie in both leagues, with Witt and Judge achieving nine-win seasons while Lindor and Ohtani sit at six-win seasons thus far.
This situation, more than any argument for a specific candidate, raises interesting questions. How often do we see such closely contested award races? What implications might this have for the final decisions? And, perhaps most crucially: How much stock should we place in WAR? Many seem to disregard it altogether.
Let’s address the last question first: It’s significant because it influences how voters approach their decisions.
Earlier this month, Dan Szymborski, the developer of the ZiPS projection system, analyzed decades of data to understand how effectively WAR correlates with the actual award winners. As expected, the correlation was relatively weak during baseball’s “golden age,” because while we can now reference WAR totals from 1956 (Mickey Mantle, by a significant amount), it clearly wasn’t a consideration for voters at the time.
This dynamic has shifted since the start of the 21st century.
“If you only consider voting trends since 2000,” Szymborski noted, “suddenly, WAR transforms from an insignificant variable into one of the primary determinants.”
in a voting model,” later adding that “WAR comes out as one of or the most crucial MVP variables today.”
