This offseason presents an excellent opportunity for teams seeking to bolster their starting rotations.
A plethora of highly sought-after free agents are available among starting pitchers, further strengthened by the recent announcement that Japan’s top pitcher will be posted. But how do these talented arms truly compare?
To answer this question definitively, we turned to our MLB.com panel to rank the free agent starting pitchers for one final 2024 edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings.
Here’s a look at the results, with each pitcher listed alongside their projected team for 2024:
1. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Burnes presents a compelling case. Over the past four seasons, he has consistently earned All-Star selections and is on track for his fifth consecutive top-10 Cy Young Award finish, including his victory in 2021. The 30-year-old has delivered over 190 innings with an ERA+ exceeding 125 for three consecutive seasons. However, his strikeout and whiff rates have dipped from their elite peaks in 2021-22. This past season, his 23.1% K rate ranked only 29th among 58 qualified pitchers, potentially raising concerns for teams considering a long-term commitment. Despite this slight decline, Burnes’ proven effectiveness places him atop this class.
2. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines (NPB)
Why will Sasaki be the subject of intense competition among MLB teams once his posting window opens? Imagine a scenario where a star like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes suddenly becomes available for any team to sign. At 23 years old, Sasaki is only seven months older than Skenes and, like the Pirates right-hander, possesses power stuff that ranks among the best. Similar to Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is subject to international bonus pool limitations, meaning any team signing him will do so with minimal financial commitment upfront. While there are inherent risks, especially regarding health and durability, Sasaki’s potential surpasses all others available this offseason, second only to Juan Soto.
3. Blake Snell, Giants
Snell’s initial foray into free agency didn’t yield the desired outcome. Despite capturing his second Cy Young Award in 2023, the left-hander lingered on the market until mid-March before finally signing with the Giants on a one-year deal with a player option for 2025. However, Snell is expected to fare better this time around after exercising his opt-out clause. While his late start in the previous season seemingly hampered him initially, Snell became virtually unhittable over the final three months, posting a 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP across 14 starts. This included a no-hitter on August 2nd against Cincinnati. Opponents managed a meager .123/.211/.171 batting average against him during this dominant stretch. Snell’s durability and high walk rates remain question marks, but at his peak, he rivals anyone in terms of dominance.
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1. Spencer Strider, BravesStrider bursts onto the scene with a dominant 2024 season, establishing himself as one of baseball’s most electrifying pitchers. He achieves this through his remarkable velocity and ability to induce ground balls, consistently keeping opponents off balance.
One key to his success has been avoiding hard contact while maintaining control of the ball within the stadium boundaries.
2. Max Fried, Braves
Even with increased exposure and scrutiny, Fried’s performance remains consistently outstanding. How? He’s masterful at avoiding hard contact and keeping the ball grounded within the ballpark.
3. Gerrit Cole, Yankees
While Cole has been a perennial ace for years, his 2024 season elevates him to another level, solidifying his status as one of the game’s premier talents. The combination of elite velocity, pinpoint command, and an arsenal of swing-and-miss offerings make Cole a nightmare for opposing batters.
4. Shane McClanahan, Rays
Despite facing increased scrutiny and heightened expectations in 2024, McClanahan continues to deliver a dominant performance. His exceptional ability to create weak contact and navigate through lineups with ease makes him a force to be reckoned with. McClanahan has established himself as one of Tampa Bay’s most reliable starters.
5. Jack Flaherty, Dodgers
Like Fried, Flaherty hails from Harvard-Westlake High School in Southern California. However, unlike Fried, consistency hasn’t been his hallmark. Even during the Dodgers’ 2024 World Series run, he had two stellar playoff starts, two disastrous ones, and one in between, reflecting a highly talented pitcher who has battled injuries and fluctuations in both performance and outcomes since entering the major leagues.
The good news for Flaherty—and his next team—is that he’s relatively young for a free agent (just turned 29 in October), has enjoyed mostly healthy seasons for two consecutive years, and was quite effective in 2024. Flaherty looks like one of the riskier options on this list, but the potential rewards should still attract significant interest.
6. Sean Manaea, Mets
Mid-June seemed like Manaea could be overlooked in this free agent class. The 32-year-old lefty, coming off a couple of unremarkable seasons with the Padres and Giants, had a 4.30 ERA through his first 12 outings with the Mets. However, from there on out, he thrived, going 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning over his final 20 starts before making three solid postseason appearances. Notably, Manaea, drawing inspiration from Chris Sale, lowered his release point, with impressive results.
7. Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Following a lengthy rehab from his second Tommy John surgery, Buehler struggled mightily to regain his form in 2024. His numbers were dismal: 16 starts with a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and struggling in his outings. However, he showed flashes of brilliance late in the season, sparking hope for a return to his dominant self.
8. Luis Severino, Yankees
Severino bounces back from a difficult 2023 season with an impressive 2024 campaign. His elite fastball and improved command allow him to stifle opposing hitters and control the flow of games.
9. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays
Gausman continues his upward trajectory, solidifying his place among baseball’s elite pitchers. His signature splitter remains a formidable weapon, and he bolsters his arsenal with improved command of other pitches.
10. Aaron Nola, Phillies
Nola enjoys a consistent year, showcasing the talent that has made him a perennial All-Star contender. His ability to pitch deep into games and limit runs keeps the Phillies in contention throughout the season.
Righty is still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April. This introduces uncertainty but also presents an opportunity to acquire a star-caliber pitcher for a short-term commitment. Bieber was one of MLB’s top starters from 2019-22, clinching the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. Following a relatively disappointing 2023 season, he looked formidable at the start of this past season before suffering a UCL tear. If Bieber returns to his previous form, he could reemerge as a top ace in a year or two.
