This offseason presents an ideal opportunity for teams seeking bolstering their starting rotation.
A wealth of coveted free agents, particularly starting pitchers, are on the market, further amplified by the recent announcement that Japan’s top pitcher will be posted. But how do these talented arms stack up against each other?
To determine this, we turned to our esteemed panel of MLB.com experts for a final 2024 edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, exclusively focusing on free agents.
Here is a glimpse at their assessment, listing each pitcher alongside their projected 2024 team:
1. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Burnes presents an intriguing case. His consistent dominance is undeniable: four straight All-Star selections and a near-certainty for a fifth consecutive top-10 Cy Young finish, including his 2021 triumph. The 30-year-old has consistently thrown over 190 innings with an ERA+ exceeding 125 for three consecutive seasons. However, concerns arise as his strikeout and whiff rates have significantly declined from their elite peaks in 2021-22. This past season, Burnes’ 23.1% K rate ranked only 29th among 58 qualified pitchers. This potential dip in performance might deter some teams from committing to a long-term deal, but Burnes’ proven effectiveness secures his position atop this class.
2. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines (NPB)
Why will Sasaki generate fervent interest from MLB teams once his posting window opens? Imagine the bidding war for a talent like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes suddenly being available to any bidder. At 23 years old, Sasaki is only seven months older than Skenes and possesses equally elite power stuff. Like Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is subject to international bonus pool money restrictions, meaning signing him will come with relatively minimal financial commitment. Certainly, risks exist, particularly regarding health and durability, but Sasaki’s potential surpasses anyone else available this offseason, barring Juan Soto.
3. Blake Snell, Giants
Snell’s initial foray into free agency proved less than successful. Despite claiming his second Cy Young Award in 2023, the left-hander lingered on the market until mid-March, ultimately signing with the Giants on a one-year deal with a player option for 2025. Expect Snell to fare better this time around after exercising his opt-out clause. While his late start last season initially appeared to hinder him, Snell became virtually untouchable over the final three months, posting a 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP across 14 starts, including a no-hitter on August 2nd against Cincinnati. Opponents hit a meager .123/.211/.171 against him during this remarkable stretch. Snell will inevitably face questions regarding his durability and high walk rates, but at his peak, he’s as dominant as any pitcher in the game.
4. Max Fried, Braves
Consider this stat: Among the 67 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings over the past five seasons, Fried boasts the best ERA+ (151), significantly surpassing Burnes and Zack Wheeler (141). Of course, Fried ranks only 25th in innings pitched and 34th in strikeout rate among that group, which perhaps explains his placement outside the top three on this list. Fried has never overwhelmed hitters with velocity or generated a high number of strikeouts. However, when it comes to suppressing runs, he’s consistently excelled…
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1. Spencer Strider, Braves
Strider has quickly climbed to prominence in MLB thanks to his exceptional performance on the mound. He possesses a lethal fastball that routinely hits triple digits, coupled with an arsenal of devastating off-speed pitches. Though small in stature and lacking overpowering velocity, he excels at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball within the park. His dominance is undeniable, making him a top target for teams seeking to bolster their rotations.
2. Shohei Ohtani, Angels/Free Agent
Ohtani is undeniably a unique talent who transcends the conventional definition of a player. His extraordinary two-way abilities – excelling both as a pitcher and hitter – are unparalleled in modern baseball. As a pitcher, he throws with remarkable velocity and precision, anchoring his arsenal with an electrifying fastball. Conversely, at the plate, Ohtani displays exceptional hitting prowess, consistently launching home runs and driving in runs. His impending free agency promises to ignite a fierce bidding war among MLB clubs eager to secure his services.
3. Justin Verlander, Mets/Free Agent
Verlander has cemented his legacy as one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Throughout his illustrious career, he has consistently demonstrated exceptional command, devastating off-speed pitches, and an ability to thrive in high-pressure situations. Even at 40 years old, he remains a dominant force on the mound, showcasing remarkable durability and resilience. In pursuit of another World Series title, Verlander will likely seek out a contender willing to offer him a lucrative contract.
4. Max Fried, Braves
Fried is often overshadowed by his talented teammates but he continuously performs at an elite level despite remaining low-key. Since establishing himself as a mainstay in the Braves’ starting rotation, Fried has been remarkably consistent. He manages to avoid difficult contact with impressive regularity and excels at keeping the ball within the ballpark.
5. Jack Flaherty, Dodgers
Flaherty, like Fried, hails from Harvard-Westlake High School in Southern California but unlike Fried, consistency has not been his hallmark. During the Dodgers’ successful 2024 campaign, he displayed two brilliant playoff starts, followed by two disastrous performances, and one that fell somewhere in between—a pattern representative of his career arc. Despite possessing undeniable talent, Flaherty has battled through injuries and inconsistency since entering the majors. However, despite this history, there’s hope for him. At 29 years old (as of October), he’s still relatively young, has enjoyed relative health over the past two seasons, and showed promise in 2024. While Flaherty presents a risk due to his unpredictable nature, his upside is attractive enough to warrant significant interest on the free agent market.
6. Sean Manaea, Mets
As recently as mid-June, Manaea’s prospects for a prominent role in this offseason’s free agency seemed unlikely. Coming off a couple of uninspiring seasons with the Padres and Giants, he had a 4.30 ERA across his first 12 outings for New York. Yet, from that point onwards, Manaea transformed his season. He posted a remarkable 9-3 record with a 3.05 ERA, accumulating more than a strikeout per inning over his final 20 starts. He credited this resurgence to newfound confidence and guidance from team personnel. This late-season surge has propelled him back into the spotlight of free agency.
7. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers/Free Agent
Eovaldi is a reliable arm with a potent fastball that touches triple digits and an array of effective secondary pitches. While he may not light up the stat sheet, he consistently delivers quality starts and thrives in high-leverage situations. He has demonstrated the ability to maintain a low ERA while racking up strikeouts, making him a valuable asset for any contender.
8. Chris Sale, Red Sox/Free Agent
Sale’s free agency presents a fascinating dilemma for potential suitors: his undeniable peak dominance versus his recent injury concerns. When healthy and firing on all cylinders, he’s among the most ferocious pitchers in the league. However, injuries have hampered his consistency over the past few seasons. If Sale can prove his health, he’ll undoubtedly find a team willing to take a chance, knowing that he remains capable of regaining his All-Star caliber form.
9. Kodai Senga, Mets/Free Agent
Senga has quickly made a name for himself in the MLB with his electrifying fastball and repertoire of intriguing breaking balls. His ability to consistently generate swings and misses makes him an instant fan favorite and a highly desirable target for teams looking to bolster their rotations.
10. Shane Bieber, Guardians
Whoever lands Bieber will have acquired a pitcher who consistently performs at an elite level while maintaining exceptional durability. Bieber’s consistent performance speaks volumes about his talent and work ethic.
Righty is still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he had in April. This introduces some uncertainty but also a chance to sign a top-tier pitcher for the short term. Bieber was one of MLB’s best starters from 2019 to 2022, winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. After a less impressive 2023 season, he performed exceptionally well at the start of this past season before suffering a torn UCL. If Bieber recovers fully, he has the potential to rejoin the market as a clear-cut ace in a year or two.
Others receiving votes: Luis Severino, Tomoyuki Sugano, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Jose Quintana
Voters: David Adler, Chris Begley, Brett Blueweiss, Jason Catania, Scott Chiusano, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Bryan Horowitz, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Brian Murphy, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, David Venn, Zac Vierra, Tom Vourtsis, Andy Werle
