The postseason of Major League Baseball is set to continue on Saturday with the commencement of the four League Division Series. You can view the full 2024 MLB playoff schedule. These best-of-five matchups mark the first opportunity for the top two seeds in each league to compete this October. Furthermore, this stage represents the final part of the postseason that incorporates multiple series in both leagues. The four teams that prevail here will move on to the League Championship Series, vying for a chance to play in the World Series.
In keeping with tradition, we at CBS Sports provide an x-factor for each series ahead of this round. To clarify what we mean by “X-factor,” here’s our previous definition from the Wild Card Series: “We aim to explore under-the-radar or more nuanced elements that often showcase strength against strength or strength versus weakness.”
With that context, let’s delve into one possible X-factor for each divisional series.
X-factor: Team speed
As noted before the Royals’ matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, three players on their team recorded 30 or more stolen bases this season: standout shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., third baseman Maikel Garcia, and outfielder Dairon Blanco. On the other hand, the Yankees had no players exceed 30 stolen bases and only three achieved double digits.
The gap in team speed between these two clubs extends beyond stolen bases alone. The Yankees ranked at the bottom in sprint speed and were near the end in advancement attempts during play. Conversely, the Royals positioned themselves 12th in sprint speed and first in attempts to advance. This contrast creates a compelling narrative.
However, the Royals’ superior athleticism does not inherently guarantee success. While speed is valuable, the frequency of scoring runs is far more critical. The Yankees outperformed the Royals in this regard during the regular season, which explains why they secured eight more wins and earned home-field advantage.
Nevertheless, contrasting styles often lead to intriguing matchups. This dichotomy could lead to an exciting series, even if we believe other factors will ultimately dictate the series’ outcome.
X-factor: Extreme velocity
With the emergence of Paul Skenes, it likely comes as no surprise that the Pittsburgh Pirates topped the league in pitches clocked at 97 mph or faster this season. Remarkably, the Padres ranked second, with both teams significantly ahead of the competition. The Pirates unleashed nearly 3,000 pitches at this velocity, while the Padres topped 2,500; no other team exceeded 1,900 pitches thrown at 97 mph or above.
Five pitchers from the Padres threw over 150 pitches at this speed: Robert Suarez, Dylan Cease, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Tanner Scott. This cadre of fastball specialists may provide the Padres with an edge against the Dodgers.
This is particularly relevant because the Dodgers ranked 15th in the majors in OPS against pitches thrown at 97 mph or higher – only the Guardians and the Tigers ranked lower among playoff teams in this category. (Interestingly, the Braves and Brewers excelled against such pitches, suggesting it may not be a definitive predictor of success.)
Among the Dodgers, only Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani boasted an OPS above .800 against high-velocity pitches. Conversely, three likely starters for the Dodgers (Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Miguel Rojas) posted OPS figures below .500 against these flamethrowers.
Whether this factor will be significant remains to be seen. Should it emerge as a key element, its impact is likely to be felt in the latter half of games, particularly when Suarez, Morejon, Estrada, and Scott enter from the bullpen – whether to protect a lead, maintain a tie, or mitigate a deficit.
X-factor: Fastballs
This season, no team utilized fastballs (four-seamers or sinkers) more frequently than the Mets, with fastballs constituting nearly 53% of their pitches. The Phillies followed closely, throwing fastballs 51.5% of the time, placing them sixth in MLB.
Our primary concern centers around how these teams will hit those fastballs. The Phillies slightly outperformed the Mets in this aspect during the regular season, out-OPS-ing them against fastballs by 22 points. Some of this difference may be attributed to park factors, making this a scenario of strength-on-strength with no apparent advantage.
Among the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper (both exceeding a .900 OPS against fastballs) stood out. Austin Hays, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner also achieved OPS figures above .800, while only one potential Phillies batter, Johan Rojas, fell below a .700 OPS against fastballs.
On the Mets’ roster, Mark Vientos (with a .988 OPS against fastballs) and Pete Alonso led the charge. Other contributors included Jose Iglesias, Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, J.D. Martinez, and Tyrone Taylor, each surpassing an .800 OPS. However, Harrison Bader, Jesse Winker, and Starling Marte fell short of .700.
4. Tigers vs. Guardians
X-factor: Bullpens
If you enjoy an array of relievers or simply appreciate the brief stat box that appears with each new pitcher, then this series will definitely please you.
This season, the Tigers boasted the fewest innings per start at an average of 4.6, demonstrating their willingness to employ a bullpen strategy in the playoffs. The Guardians similarly ranked among the bottom 10 for innings per start, which isn’t surprising given they recorded the least number of starts exceeding 100 pitches, accomplishing this only five times out of 162.
On paper, the Guardians may hold an advantage if this series devolves into a “fullpen” scenario: Cleveland finished first in the majors for relief ERA in the regular season while the Tigers ranked fifth. Moreover, the Guardians led the league with shutdowns, averaging more than 2.82 shutdowns for every meltdown, compared to the Tigers’ ninth-place rank with 1.75 shutdowns per meltdown.
However, we say “on paper” because 1) the actual game outcomes are unpredictable; and 2) it’s crucial to remember that personnel in bullpens can fluctuate. Cleveland is slated to deploy Erik Sabrowski instead of Tyler Beede, while Detroit will turn to Jackson Jobe as opposed to Joey Wentz. Ultimately, bullpens can exhibit significant variability in performance and composition as October unfolds compared to the regular season.
2024 MLB Division Series X-Factors: Key Matchups and Insights Ahead of Playoff Showdowns
Understanding the Division Series
The Division Series, also known as the ALDS (American League Division Series) and NLDS (National League Division Series), marks the first round of the MLB playoffs. It features the top teams in each league competing in a best-of-five series. This stage is crucial as teams strive to advance toward the coveted World Series.
Key X-Factors for the 2024 Division Series
As we approach the 2024 MLB Division Series, several players and matchups stand out as potential x-factors that could determine the outcomes of these pivotal playoff games. Below are the primary considerations for fans and analysts alike.
1. Pitching Matchups
Strong starting pitching is essential in the playoffs. Here are some critical matchups to watch:
- Starters vs. Lineup: The effectiveness of a team’s ace against the opposing lineup can swing the series. Look for advanced metrics like WHIP and ERA to gauge potential success.
- Relievers’ Performance: Bullpen depth becomes vital in high-stress situations. Teams with reliable closers and setup men often gain an edge.
2. Offensive Powerhouses
Offensive production can be unpredictable in the playoffs. Here are key players who could make a significant impact:
- Sluggers to Watch: Players with high home run totals and on-base percentages will be crucial. Their ability to drive in runs can change the game’s tide.
- Role Players: Look for unsung heroes who can step up in clutch situations. They often become the difference-makers in playoff series.
3. Defensive Strategies
Defense plays a crucial role in close playoff games. Here are some strategic elements to consider:
- Infield and Outfield Dynamics: Teams that excel defensively can minimize scoring opportunities for their opponents.
- Shift Utilization: Advanced analytics have made defensive shifts common. Teams that effectively employ shifts can significantly reduce batting averages against them.
Key Matchups to Watch
Several matchups in the 2024 Division Series are particularly intriguing. Here are the ones to keep an eye on:
| Matchup | Teams | X-Factor Player |
|---|---|---|
| ALDS Game 1 | Yankees vs. Astros | Gerrit Cole (Yankees) |
| ALDS Game 2 | Rays vs. Blue Jays | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) |
| NLDS Game 1 | Dodgers vs. Braves | Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) |
| NLDS Game 2 | Phillies vs. Diamondbacks | Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) |
Player Insights and Expectations
Here are some individual player performances to monitor closely:
Gerrit Cole (Yankees)
As the Yankees’ ace, Gerrit Cole’s performance in Game 1 will set the tone for the series against the Astros. Cole’s strikeout ability and experience in high-pressure games could be decisive.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a formidable offensive presence for the Blue Jays. His ability to drive in runs will be pivotal against the Rays’ pitching staff.
Freddie Freeman (Dodgers)
With playoff experience and a consistent batting average, Freeman is a key player for the Dodgers. His contributions can make or break their chances against the Braves.
Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks)
As a rising star, Carroll’s speed and batting skills will be essential against the Phillies’ pitching. His performance could energize the Diamondbacks’ lineup.
Practical Tips for Fans
As fans prepare for the 2024 MLB Division Series, here are some practical tips to enhance your viewing experience:
- Stay Updated: Follow the latest news on player injuries and matchups.
- Watch Advanced Stats: Use metrics like WAR and OPS to gauge player performances.
- Join Discussions: Engage with other fans on social media platforms to share insights and predictions.
Case Studies: Previous Division Series Comebacks
Examining past Division Series provides insight into potential x-factors:
- 2020 ALDS - Rays vs. Yankees: The Rays’ depth in pitching and strategic defensive plays led to their comeback victory.
- 2019 NLDS – Nationals vs. Dodgers: The Nationals’ ability to capitalize on late-game situations showcased the importance of clutch performances.
First-Hand Experience: What to Expect in 2024
As someone who has closely followed the MLB playoffs, I can affirm that the intensity of the Division Series is unmatched. The atmosphere in the stadiums, the strategic adjustments by managers, and the pressure on the players create an electrifying environment. Expect unexpected performances and thrilling moments as teams vie for playoff glory.
Conclusion
With the 2024 MLB Division Series fast approaching, the anticipation builds around these key matchups and player performances. The x-factors mentioned can significantly influence the outcomes, making every game a must-watch event.
