Our series previewing the upcoming season will commence in a few weeks, and we will provide you with each team’s projected point total, their chances of clinching the Stanley Cup, and numerous details in between.
However, for those eager to place bets, a few weeks might seem too long. Fear not, as we have prepared the best betting options based on our projections. These bets have performed well over the last two seasons (2022, 2023), yielding back-to-back Presidents’ Trophy wins. Let’s aim for similar fortune this year.
While we will not be revealing specific projections and probabilities for each team, we will highlight which teams represent solid betting opportunities based on their current odds.
Betting responsibly is crucial; only wager what you are comfortable losing, especially with futures bets, which lock your funds for the entire season. The essence of successful betting lies in bankroll management: stake a small percentage based on perceived advantages while avoiding the temptation to use money set aside for other purposes. For futures betting, I typically allocate a percentage of my bankroll exclusively for this purpose, creating a designated “futures bankroll.” This could range from 10 percent to 25 percent — the goal is to ensure you don’t tie up too much capital, particularly if you’re also betting on games throughout the season.
This year’s recommended bets fall into two categories: point totals and playoff outcomes, alongside futures (division, conference, and Cup props). I’ve included a stake size reflecting a percentage of our total futures bankroll so that the total equals 100 percent if you were to place all the bets. For context, an eight percent stake is substantial; however, if you’ve allocated 25 percent of your total bankroll for futures, it effectively makes it a two-percent stake.
Point Totals and Playoffs
Detroit Red Wings
UNDER 90.5 points, -120 (Stake: 7.5 percent)
NO playoffs, -162 (7 percent)
This season, the Red Wings are my primary fade. A total of 90.5 points seems overly generous for a team that was fortunate to reach 91 points last season. They ranked seventh worst in expected goals percentage but managed to survive mainly due to exceptional shooting. Additionally, they allowed the second most chances on the penalty kill, albeit supported by unsustainably strong goaltending.
These issues might be overlooked if the team were relatively young (which they are not), had made significant offseason improvements (which they did not), or could expect declines from competing teams (which appears unlikely). Unless Simon Edvinsson proves to be an immediate game-changer, envisioning a playoff route for the Red Wings this season — or even repeating last year’s total of 91 points — seems implausible.
Vancouver Canucks
OVER 97.5 points, -111 (7 percent)
It is intriguing that the market is willing to overlook Detroit’s misleading season yet is not as forgiving towards Vancouver. While it’s true that the Canucks posted a high PDO that might regress, 97.5 points represents a significant drop from last year’s 109 points.
What sets Vancouver apart is the presence of genuine shooting and goaltending talent that justifies optimism. The team features real superstars capable of impacting games positively,
Surprising many last year, the team achieved 92 points, but I remain skeptical about their ability to replicate that performance.
St. Louis had a mediocre penalty kill last season and ranked among the bottom three in five-on-five expected goals, even worse than the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets. Additionally, their power play was quite poor. Without an unexpected resurgence from Jordan Binnington, the Blues’ situation could have been considerably more challenging last year.
This summer, the Blues made some intriguing moves that could potentially alter their trajectory. However, it feels more like last season was an anomaly rather than a sign of sustained success.
New York Islanders
OVER 91.5 points, -113 (4.5 percent)
YES playoffs, +100 (4.5 percent)
No, the world hasn’t changed drastically. The Islanders are still a team worth placing bets on, according to The Model that fans from the Islanders love to critique.
The model is bolstered by an underrated core that includes Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson, and Ilya Sorokin. The notable rise of Dobson last season is significant, as it raises the immediate ceiling for this team and moves them away from the downward trend they faced two years ago.
While I don’t view the Islanders as top contenders, they should be a much more reliable playoff bet than the odds reflect, especially considering Detroit’s total is inexplicably just one point lower. There’s a lot to appreciate about Long Island, particularly with the addition of Anthony Duclair and a few beneficial subtractions. Furthermore, they now have a new-ish coach, Patrick Roy, who is notably not Lane Lambert.
Last season, the Islanders reached the playoffs and secured 94 points despite their best player, Sorokin, having a subpar year. Expect a rebound in performance and anticipate the Islanders finishing with more than 92 points this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
OVER 101.5 points, -125 (6 percent)
It’s noteworthy to observe how the market is undervaluing the Leafs. Though last year marked a low point for the current core, they still managed to record 102 points. There are numerous reasons to believe this year’s lineup can deliver even more.
The core four players remain unchanged, which while disappointing to some, is Toronto’s greatest advantage. Although the supporting cast could improve, using Ryan Reaves less frequently could already signify progress. Regardless, it’s a continuation from a group that ranked second in the league in scoring last season.
We know the Leafs have the offensive capability. The focus should now be on restoring their defensive strength, which would enhance optimism heading into the upcoming season. I was skeptical of the Leafs last year partly due to the many defensive sacrifices made for offensive gain. This year, however, they’ve addressed those issues, particularly with the addition of Chris Tanev to the blue line. His presence significantly strengthens the top four defensemen over the previous roster.
Moreover, the Leafs should enhance their goaltending this year. They had the 24th-best save percentage last season, but I believe Anthony Stolarz represents a considerable upgrade over Ilya Samsonov — and Joseph Woll could emerge as a surprising full-time starter.
The Leafs remain an elite team and deserve to be rated significantly higher than their current odds reflect.
<b
berg. He’s an unexpectedly effective shutdown player who might just be what Edmonton requires in its top four.
After bringing Kris Knoblauch on board, the Oilers became nearly unbeatable last season. I anticipate similar success in the upcoming season.
Montreal Canadiens
OVER 75.5 points, -120 (4.5 percent)
The Canadiens are a team on the rise, having added Patrik Laine to an increasingly talented roster. It’s difficult not to be optimistic about their chances of surpassing 75.5 points, a mark they exceeded last season.
The team’s core continues to improve, with Juraj Slafkovsky’s development throughout the season being particularly noteworthy. They will also welcome back Kirby Dach, who suffered an injury that sidelined him for nearly all of last season, in addition to acquiring the dynamic Lane Hutson for their defense. The Canadiens are on an upward trajectory, and this seems like the year they’ll demonstrate it.
Utah HC
OVER 87.5 points, -125 (4.5 percent)
YES playoffs, +164 (2 percent)
If you’re looking for a playoff dark horse, Utah at +164 presents significant value, as I view them as closer to a 50-50 shot. Although Utah is currently not seen as one of the top eight teams in the West, the newly relocated franchise is just on the brink, with little formidable competition trailing them.
The signings of Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino, and Ian Cole have considerably bolstered the team’s defense, which was a major vulnerability last season. This revamped blue line should effectively get the puck to a forward group that is often underrated and boasts some of the best depth in the league.
This roster is packed with young talent, and I believe they are primed to compete this season.
Carolina Hurricanes
OVER 101.5 points, -104 (3.5 percent)
The Hurricanes have consistently maintained a pace above 110 points for four consecutive seasons—thus, a total of 101.5 points feels like a gift.
Even though Carolina lost several key players this offseason, they managed to replace that talent adequately, either from within the organization or through new acquisitions. They remain an elite defensive team that will be challenging to score against, particularly with the continuing development of Pyotr Kochetkov in goal.
Carolina continues to be a reliable bet for a top position in the league until proven otherwise.
Washington Capitals
NO playoffs, -220 (3.5 percent)
This is a rather straightforward bet, but oddsmakers often underestimate certainty at the extremes of the playoff race. Although it’s typically unwise to tie up betting money for months for a return of less than 30 percent on your investment—value remains value.
I assessed the plays mentioned here at -250, yet I also spotted some advantages on several teams that are quite close to “lock” status. Though there’s no such thing as a guarantee, if you find a sportsbook willing to parlay playoff picks, there might be a compelling combination to make. I favor Edmonton, Vancouver, Dallas, Florida, Toronto, the Rangers, and Carolina to make the playoffs, while predicting Calgary and Philadelphia will miss out.
Returning to Washington; while I appreciate the Capitals’ efforts to remain competitive this season, I favor several other teams in the East significantly more. My estimation for this is closer to -438, making -220 a relative value.
Vegas Golden Knights
UNDER 99.5 points, -115 (3.5 percent)
I’m uncertain if enough people realize just how compromised Vegas’s winger situation is heading into the season. Beyond Mark Stone—who has averaged just 45 games over the last three seasons—the Golden Knights feature Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Dorofeyev, Alex Holtz, Brendan Brisson, Victor Olofsson, Brett Howden, and Keegan Kolesar. It’s possible that no other team has a weaker group in the league.
They might address this by moving any of their surplus centers to wing positions, and their defense remains rich in talent as well. However, all in all, there
There are considerably more gaps in the lineup compared to previous years. A total of 99.5 points indicates that Vegas is a relatively safe bet for the playoffs, but the Golden Knights appear vulnerable at this moment. (For reference, my model estimates that the odds of the Golden Knights missing the playoffs sit at +221, which could present a valuable opportunity depending on your book’s pricing).
Winnipeg Jets
OVER 94.5 points, -120 (2 percent)
YES playoffs, -172 (2.5 percent)
While I am not particularly fond of the Jets’ roster, they still boast one of the top goalies in Connor Hellebuyck. Even if the rest of the team is average, it shouldn’t affect their playoff chances too severely—Winnipeg should remain a playoff contender. I believe they are a more reliable bet than their current odds suggest.
Philadelphia Flyers
UNDER 85.5 points, -106 (2.5 percent)
The Flyers were a pleasant surprise last season; however, even with Matvei Michkov joining the team, it’s hard to view them as highly competitive. Many circumstances worked in favor of a roster that lacks significant talent last season, so I anticipate a market correction this year.
Futures
Edmonton Oilers
Division, +115 (3 percent)
Conference, +400 (1 percent)
Stanley Cup, +850 (1 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +700 (1.5 percent)
The Oilers are considered the team to beat this season, and across the board, their odds seem undervalued for this status.
Especially in the division, only the Canucks seem like a true threat in the Pacific. The +115 line does not adequately reflect their potential.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Division, +290 (3 percent)
Conference, +650 (1 percent)
Stanley Cup, +1500 (0.5 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +1100 (1.5 percent)
The Leafs are favored in the Atlantic Division—at least, they should be based on the model. The Panthers have lost significant talent on their blue line, the Bruins are aging, and the Lightning still have major depth issues in their offense. Toronto may not be flawless, but on paper, they currently appear to be the best team in the Atlantic.
Consequently, there is value in each future bet here, with a division win being the most enticing. After placing second or third in the Atlantic for every season of the Core Four era, it’s time for this “regular season” team to finally claim something in the regular season as well.
Vancouver Canucks
Division, +460 (1 percent)
Conference, +1100 (0.5 percent)
Stanley Cup, +2300 (0.5 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +2500 (0.5 percent)
Despite potential regression, the Canucks are poised to remain a competitive team next season. Although they may not be the divisional favorite, I see their combined chances with the Oilers as nearing 90 percent, partly because I don’t view the Golden Knights as much of a threat this year. The duo is being priced around 74 percent instead.
Additionally, it seems that the Canucks are being undervalued too significantly in other betting markets. The fact that 13 teams rank above them in Stanley Cup odds is astonishing to me. They have a realistic chance of being a top five team this season.
Carolina Hurricanes
Division, +270 (1.5 percent)
Conference, +650 (0.5 percent)
The Devils are receiving plenty of recognition this offseason, while the Rangers defeated a stronger version of the Hurricanes in last year’s playoffs. This positions the Hurricanes as the third team in the Metropolitan Division. Considering their recent regular-season performance, their core, pipeline, and system, I believe this ranking is insufficient. I maintain that the path to success in the Metro goes through Carolina.
Dallas Stars
Division, +230 (1.5 percent)
Oddsmakers are slightly favoring Colorado in the Central Division. I believe the Stars deserve that recognition instead and feel quite strongly about their potential.
(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
2023-2024 NHL Season Betting Preview: Top Point Totals and Futures to Consider
Understanding NHL Betting Basics
Before diving into the specifics of point totals and futures, it’s essential to understand the core aspects of NHL betting. Here are the primary types of bets you can place:
- Moneyline Bets: A straightforward bet on which team will win the game.
- Point Spread Bets: Betting on the margin of victory.
- Over/Under Bets: Wagering on whether the total score will go over or under a specified number.
- Futures Bets: Long-term bets on outcomes like the Stanley Cup winner or individual player awards.
Key Factors Influencing the 2023-2024 NHL Season
Several factors will influence NHL team performances in the 2023-2024 season. Keep these in mind when considering your bets:
1. Roster Changes
– Trades and free agency signings can significantly impact a team’s performance. Look for teams that have bolstered their rosters with star players.
– Injuries in critical positions can derail a team’s season before it even begins.
2. Coaching Changes
– A new coach can bring a fresh strategy and renewed energy to a team. Consider how coaching changes could affect team dynamics and performance.
3. Previous Season Performance
– Analyze how teams finished the previous season. Strong finishes often translate to momentum heading into the new season.
4. Player Performance and Statistics
– Keep an eye on individual player performances from the last season. Key players who consistently perform can heavily influence their team’s success.
Top Point Totals to Consider
When betting on point totals for the 2023-2024 NHL season, consider the following teams that are well-positioned to exceed expectations:
| Team | Projected Point Total | Key Players |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 105 | Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 102 | Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov |
| Boston Bruins | 102 | David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 103 | Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 100 | Jack Eichel, Mark Stone |
Futures Bets to Keep an Eye On
Futures betting is an excellent way to lock in value at the start of the season. Here are some futures markets and teams to consider:
Stanley Cup Winner
– **Colorado Avalanche**: With their solid roster and recent playoff success, they are favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
– **Tampa Bay Lightning**: A seasoned team with a history of championship runs.
– **Carolina Hurricanes**: Emerging as a strong contender with a young core.
Hart Trophy Winner (MVP)
– **Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)**: Always a top contender due to his point-scoring ability.
– **Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)**: A consistent performer who can light the lamp frequently.
– **Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)**: A dynamic player who influences games.
Calder Trophy Winner (Rookie of the Year)
– **Mason McTavish (Anaheim Ducks)**: Expected to make a significant impact as a rookie.
– **Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken)**: A promising talent that could shine in his sophomore season.
- **Shane Wright (Seattle Kraken)**: Highly touted rookie with a lot of upside.
Betting Strategies and Tips
To maximize your betting success in the NHL, consider the following strategies:
- Do Your Homework: Research team stats, player statistics, and trends before placing a bet.
- Follow Expert Analysis: Use insights from professional analysts and betting forums to gain different perspectives.
- Shop for Lines: Different sportsbooks may offer varying odds; take the time to find the best value.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses and know when to walk away.
- Watch for Injuries: Being aware of player injuries can provide opportunities for betting against the spread or total scores.
Case Studies: Successful Betting From Previous Seasons
Examining past betting trends can offer valuable insights. Here are some noteworthy case studies from the previous seasons:
Case Study 1: The Rise of the Florida Panthers
- In the 2021-2022 season, the Florida Panthers had an impressive run, exceeding expectations and clinching the President’s Trophy. Betters who recognized their momentum early in the season saw significant returns.
Case Study 2: Colorado Avalanche’s Championship Run
– The Avalanche’s victory in the 2021-2022 playoffs led many savvy betters to place futures on them before the playoffs began, reaping rewards as they progressed through the rounds.
First-Hand Experience: Betting During the NHL Season
As someone who has actively engaged in NHL betting, I’ve found that following the season closely is crucial. Here’s what I’ve learned:
– **Live Betting Advantage**: Watching games live allows you to gauge team momentum and make more informed decisions on live betting opportunities.
– **Trends Matter**: Keep track of which teams are on winning streaks or have a solid home/away record; these can heavily influence upcoming matches.
– **Player Prop Bets**: Betting on individual player performance can yield excellent odds, especially for star players in high-stakes games.
By incorporating these strategies and insights into your betting approach for the 2023-2024 NHL season, you can enhance your chances of making informed wagers that yield positive results. Happy betting!
