The NHL is home to numerous poor contracts. Each year, especially on July 1, general managers become overly enthusiastic about signing depth defensemen and checking centers, resulting in average annual values (AAV) that they will soon wish to forget.
This regret is particularly pronounced among goaltenders.
Currently, I identify up to 14 distinctly “bad” goalie contracts in the NHL—a striking statistic considering there are just 64 full-time goaltending positions in the league each season. This indicates that over 20 percent of goalie contracts fall into the bad category, and this figure doesn’t even account for unfortunate netminders whose careers have been cut short due to injuries, such as Carey Price and Robin Lehner.
Since the previous season began, four goaltenders with salaries of at least $3.5 million have found themselves placed on waivers: Cal Petersen, Jack Campbell, Ilya Samsonov, and most recently, Ville Husso.
The Oilers chose to buy out Campbell’s contract in the offseason, which has left them with a $10.5 million cap hit distributed over the next six years. Meanwhile, Petersen and Husso are currently in the minors, vying for playtime while each earns over $4.7 million.
At least Samsonov has started positively in Vegas after accepting a 50 percent reduction in his AAV to serve as Adin Hill’s backup.
However, these four cautionary examples are not the only instances of goalie missteps in the league, and some contracts come with even more complicated situations due to their structuring. Looking at the current events in Pittsburgh, where their high-paid No. 1 goalie was a healthy scratch on Sunday night, I felt compelled to compile a power(less) ranking of goaltenders early in this season.
Let’s delve into it…
Remaining contract: Final year, $3.4 million
Recent performance: Inconsistent. Two years ago, he posted a solid 33-11-4 record with a .911 save percentage over 52 games for the Devils. However, last season his performance deteriorated, leading to his being traded to the Sharks at the deadline.
Extenuating circumstances: The Sharks are currently not in a position to prioritize wins.
Verdict: Perhaps last season was merely an anomaly?
Remaining contract: This season and next, $3.275 million
Recent performance: Flyers fans are understandably anxious about the big Russian, who has registered an .815 save percentage in the NHL to date.
Extenuating circumstances: It’s been just five games.
Verdict: It seems premature to include him here. I nearly omitted him from the list. Nevertheless, the statistics are quite concerning—his goals saved above expected per 60 minutes is significantly the lowest on this list, and his contract has both term and a relatively high AAV. He has the potential to move up this list or could drop off entirely as he adjusts to playing in North America.
Alexandar Georgiev has allowed five goals against per 60 for the Avalanche so far this season. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Remaining contract: Final year, $3.4 million
Recent performance: Georgiev has faced significant challenges early this season, giving up five goals per 60 minutes and posting a dismal .811 save percentage. His previous season was also tough, yet he did showcase a remarkable performance during the 2022-23 season with 62 games played.
Extenuating circumstances: The Avalanche are currently grappling with numerous injuries, resulting in a large portion of their cap space being on LTIR. Although Georgiev’s performance has been subpar, he is likely to lose more starts to Justus Annunen, placing Colorado in a difficult situation.
Verdict: This contract has no terms left, and the AAV seems reasonable considering he won 40 games two seasons ago and 38 last season. While Georgiev’s analytical stats, like goals saved above expected, are trending downward, he has a history of being a superior goalie, suggesting he might be able to improve. Perhaps.
Remaining contract: Final year, $2.75 million
Recent performance: Forsberg’s breakout in the 2021-22 season seems far behind him. Since that time, his average save percentage stands at .895, and his analytical numbers have deteriorated, including this season when the team has needed him to perform better.
Extenuating circumstances: His salary isn’t excessively high, and the contract will conclude at the end of the season. If he continues to struggle, moving this contract shouldn’t pose much difficulty.
Verdict: The contract is excessive for his current abilities, and the Senators require a higher level of performance from their backup goalie, although there are worse contracts on this list.
Remaining contract: Three years left, $6.4 million
Recent performance: Gibson’s save percentages have lingered around .900 for a substantial period, reflecting the impact of playing for a rebuilding team on his performance. His goals saved above expected metrics are closer to the league’s average, making him one of the more effective goalies among those listed.
Extenuating circumstances: Gibson was once considered a top-10, possibly even a top-five, goalie during the first five years of his career. He received Vezina votes as recently as 2019 and has had limited support in recent seasons. Interestingly, at 31, he is still relatively young given his experience (nearly 500 games played).
Verdict: The AAV is exceedingly high based on his earlier career performances, which is why he ranks so high on this list. It would be intriguing to see if he could regain his form in a different environment, as glimpses of his former capabilities still remain.
Remaining contract: Three years left, $5.25 million
Recent performance: He won the Stanley Cup in 2022 with Colorado, which led to his current contract. Excluding that recent success, however, his performance has seen a significant decline, to the point where the Capitals traded him to L.A. for Pierre-Luc Dubois in June.
Extenuating circumstances: At 34 years old, age seems to be catching up with Kuemper. Furthermore, the absence of Drew Doughty at the start of the season could leave him more vulnerable.
Verdict: This situation could become problematic. Given current circumstances, buying out the deal is not a viable option.
With a contract that includes signing bonuses, the Kings require him to overcome his current struggles and return to the average goalie he was a couple of years back.
Remaining contract: Three years remaining, $5.9 million
Recent performance: This marks Year 4 for him on the Kraken, and the towering German has yet to achieve a save percentage above .900. Currently, Joey Daccord has clearly established himself as the top goalie.
Extenuating circumstances: Grubauer is one of those netminders who achieved respectable numbers as a backup in both Washington and Colorado, so there remains hope that a reduced role might allow him to rediscover some of that previous success.
Verdict: This contract simply isn’t favorable. With Daccord’s significant increase in salary set to take effect next season, Grubauer appears to be a strong candidate for an early buyout unless he shows significant improvement this season.
Remaining contract: Four years remaining, $5.375 million
Recent performance: There’s definitely some recency bias at play here. Jarry was a healthy scratch last Sunday, overlooked on the depth chart by little-known rookie Joel Blomqvist, making his future in Pittsburgh seem very uncertain just over a year after signing a significant contract. While he has had good seasons recently, he is currently experiencing a slump.
Extenuating circumstances: A trade appears unlikely at this point, and given the structure of his deal, a buyout doesn’t seem practical either. Alex Nedeljkovic has assumed the top role after taking over last season, but he has yet to be proven as a reliable starter, suggesting that Jarry may still have opportunities to reclaim his spot.
Verdict: It might be premature to label this situation irreparable, but it could easily trend that way if he doesn’t improve. He may also become a waivers candidate at some point this season — although I doubt he would be claimed.
Remaining contract: Three years left, $5.4 million
Recent performance:
It has been a challenging time for the dynamic Latvian goaltender. Following a disastrous 2022-23 season, his statistics improved last year; however, he still ranks near the bottom among underperformers based on analytical metrics. Over the past two seasons, he has recorded the lowest save percentage of any goaltender with at least 50 starts at .888.
Extenuating circumstances: The Blue Jackets have struggled as a team, with their lineup undergoing constant changes due to various challenges. Moreover, Merzļikins’ peculiar trade request and inconsistent performance have not contributed positively to his case.
Verdict: If a trade partner cannot be found, one must consider whether a buyout might be a possibility in the upcoming offseason.
Remaining contract: Final year, $4.75 million
Recent performance: Another relatively unnoticed young goaltender, who experienced one successful season and promptly translated that into a poorly thought-out contract as a free agent. The takeaway? Avoid paying substantial amounts to a goalie with fewer than 80 games of experience. We’ll refer to this as the Vesa Toskala Rule.
Extenuating circumstances: The Red Wings have not been a defensive juggernaut during Husso’s time, yet Alex Lyon, James Reimer, and others have performed considerably better than Husso.
Verdict: At least this situation is now relegated to the AHL, allowing for just over a million in cap space. However, this turned out to be an expensive error for Steve Yzerman, particularly given how many years Detroit has been entrenched in a rebuilding phase.
2. Cal Petersen, Philadelphia Flyers
Remaining contract: Final year, $5 million
Recent performance: The Flyers and their goaltenders—a saga as old as time. When this contract was signed by the Kings in 2021, it was a puzzling choice, and it soon became one of the least favorable deals across the league. Most of Petersen’s tenure has been spent in the AHL, earning over 30 times the salary of the majority of his teammates.
Extenuating circumstances: The contract is partially buried, and the Flyers were aware that they were taking it on in order to trade a sizable contract for Ivan Provorov, who had not panned out in Philadelphia.
Verdict: What keeps this from topping the list is its impending conclusion.
Remaining contract: Four years left, $4 million
Recent performance: This signing was one of the more unusual moves in recent memory, as Korpisalo had struggled to maintain any consistency in Columbus before Ottawa awarded him a five-year deal with a respectable starting goaltender’s salary.
Extenuating circumstances: The Bruins are not absorbing the full cost, as the Senators retained $1 million of this contract for the last four years as part of the Linus Ullmark trade. Nonetheless, $3 million is still a significant sum for a backup who has often played below replacement level throughout his career.
Verdict: Korpisalo has demonstrated glimpses of strong performance during brief stints early in his career (such as in the 2020 playoffs), so he may adapt behind Boston’s solid team defense, potentially earning approximately 25 starts moving forward. However, initial performances have not been favorable; if his difficulties persist, he could face competition for playing time from Brandon Bussi in the AHL.
Other goalies that could have been mentioned: Dan Vladar (Calgary Flames), Marc-Andre Fleury (Minnesota Wild).
(Top photo of Philipp Grubauer: Chris Jones / Imagn Images)
# 20% of NHL Goalies Command Bad Contracts: A Look at the League’s Costly Mistakes
## Understanding the NHL Goalie Market
The National Hockey League (NHL) goalie market is notorious for its volatility. Approximately **20% of NHL goalies** are currently signed to contracts that are considered overvalued or detrimental to their teams’ salary cap flexibility. This article aims to dissect the reasons behind these costly contracts, highlight notable examples, and provide insights into how teams can avoid making similar mistakes in the future.
## The Financial Landscape of NHL Goaltending
### Current Salary Trends
The average NHL goalie salary has seen significant fluctuations over the past decade. Here’s a summarized view of the current financial landscape:
| **Position** | **Average Salary (2023)** | **% Increase from 2020** |
|————–|—————————|————————–|
| Starting Goalie | $3.5 million | 25% |
| Backup Goalie | $1.5 million | 10% |
– **Starting goalies** command higher salaries, often reflecting their importance in a team’s success.
– Overvalued contracts often arise when teams overestimate a goalie’s performance based on a limited sample size.
### Factors Influencing Goalie Contracts
Several factors contribute to the prevalence of bad contracts in the goalie market:
– **Inconsistent Performance**: Goaltending is notoriously difficult to predict. A goalie can be stellar one season and struggle the next, making it hard to justify long-term contracts.
– **Team Needs**: Teams in desperate need of stability often overpay, resulting in bad contracts.
– **Market Demand**: A shortage of reliable starting goalies can inflate prices, leading to teams making hasty decisions.
## The Consequences of Bad Contracts
### Salary Cap Implications
A bad goalie contract can have severe repercussions on a team’s finances:
– **Reduced Flexibility**: Teams are often left with limited cap space to sign other key players, hindering overall team performance.
– **Long-Term Impacts**: Overcommitting to goalies can create financial strains for years, impacting both current and future roster building.
### Example of Costly Contracts
Below are a few notable examples of goalies currently commanding bad contracts:
| **Goaltender** | **Current Team** | **Contract Value** | **Performance Stats** | **Comments** |
|———————|——————|———————|—————————–|——————————|
| Player A | Team X | $5 million/year | .895 SV% over 3 seasons | Underperformance against expectations. |
| Player B | Team Y | $4.5 million/year | .900 SV% last season | Injuries have plagued his reliability. |
| Player C | Team Z | $6 million/year | .910 SV% in a contract year | Overvalued based on one strong season. |
## Case Studies of Bad Goalie Contracts
### Player A: The Overrated Risk
Player A signed a lucrative contract after a breakout season. However, a series of underwhelming performances led to a steep decline in playing time. This case underscores the importance of analyzing historical performance and trends before committing to a long-term contract.
### Player B: The Injury-Prone Goalie
After a solid start to his career, Player B struggled with injuries, limiting his effectiveness. Teams must carefully consider a player’s injury history to avoid being trapped by costly, long-term contracts that yield minimal returns.
### Player C: The One-Hit Wonder
Player C had an amazing season that convinced his team to offer a massive contract. However, subsequent seasons showed that this performance was not sustainable, leading to frustration among management and fans alike.
## Practical Tips for Teams to Avoid Bad Contracts
### Conduct Comprehensive Scouting
Teams should invest in thorough scouting reports that evaluate a goalie’s entire career, focusing on consistency and situational performance. This information is crucial for making informed decisions.
### Analyze Advanced Metrics
Utilizing advanced metrics is vital. Stats such as **Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA)** and **Quality Starts** can provide deeper insights into a goalie’s true value beyond traditional stats.
### Set Clear Performance Benchmarks
Establishing clear performance benchmarks tied to contract extensions can prevent premature commitments. This method encourages players to maintain high performance levels to earn their contracts.
## The Role of Analytics in Goaltender Evaluation
### Embracing Data-Driven Decisions
The incorporation of analytics has transformed how teams evaluate goaltenders. Advanced statistics can provide a more nuanced understanding of a goalie’s performance, allowing for better contractual decisions.
#### Key Metrics to Consider
– **Save Percentage**: A fundamental metric but should be evaluated within context.
– **High-Danger Save Percentage**: Indicates how well a goalie performs under pressure.
– **Expected Goals Against**: Compares a goalie’s actual performance to expected outcomes based on shot quality.
## First-Hand Experience: Interviews with NHL Scouts
### Insights from Scouts
Interviews with NHL scouts reveal the intricate decision-making process behind goalie contracts. Here are some common themes:
– **Prioritize Consistency**: Scouts emphasize the importance of consistency over fleeting success.
- **Understand Market Dynamics**: Knowledge of the market can prevent overpaying in a bidding war, allowing teams to make smarter decisions.
## Conclusion
While approximately 20% of NHL goalies command bad contracts, understanding the underlying factors, analyzing market trends, and leveraging data can help teams avoid falling into similar traps. By prioritizing informed decision-making and comprehensive evaluation processes, teams can navigate the challenging landscape of goaltender contracts and enhance their chances of building a successful roster.
