Each spring training, I forecast which players are poised for breakout seasons, and annually, I experience a mix of successes and failures. This year, I correctly identified position players like Elly De La Cruz and Riley Greene, as well as pitchers such as Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene. However, I overlooked others who now merit recognition following their outstanding performances this season.
In creating my list, I define a breakout candidate as a player expected to achieve significantly better results than their previous major-league history, or someone who makes a remarkable entrance and outshines the rookie competition.
Here are 20 players who transformed their potential into tangible results in 2024, making the most significant strides among major-league athletes. If you believe I’ve missed any noteworthy players, feel free to present your thoughts in the comments section.
(Note: WAR statistics are sourced from Baseball Reference as of Sept. 24)
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
WAR: 6.1
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch remarked to me during the 2021 spring training that Tarik Skubal was the most promising pitching prospect in their organization and mentioned it wouldn’t surprise him if the lefty claimed a Cy Young Award one day. Fast forward three years, and Skubal’s success has validated Hinch’s prediction as he boasts an impressive record of 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings pitched. He currently leads the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, ERA+, and FIP, firmly establishing himself as the most prominent breakout player of 2024.
2. Jarren Duran, CF, Red Sox
WAR: 8.6
This season, Jarren Duran made history by becoming the first player in major-league history to achieve at least 10 triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and 40 doubles within a single season. Alongside his remarkable offensive enhancements, he has also improved defensively, ranking in the 96th percentile for outs above average (range) and fielding run value while enhancing his jumps and angles on outfield balls. On the basepaths, he remains a significant threat, standing in the 100th percentile for baserunning run value and the 97th percentile in sprint speed.
3. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
WAR: 6.0
This season, Paul Skenes captivated Major League Baseball with a series of dominating performances that earned him a spot as the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game. With a record of 11-3 and a 1.99 ERA over 22 starts, he has tallied 167 strikeouts in 131 innings. Opposing hitters are managing just .187 against his sinker and .106 against his sweeper. Transitioning from a national championship with LSU last year to a stellar start in the majors this year with the Pirates—plus being the top pick in the MLB Draft in between—Skenes is on an impressive journey. While there are numerous candidates for the NL Rookie of the Year, if I had to choose one, Skenes would be my pick.
Riley Greene has a career-high .833 OPS. (Peter Aiken / Imagn Images)
4. Riley Greene, LF, Tigers
WAR: 5.3
During his rookie season in 2022, Riley Greene appeared in 93 games, posting a .254 batting average along with five home runs across 418 plate appearances. Although injuries restricted him to just 99 games in 2023, he improved his performance, hitting .288 with 11 home runs in 416 plate appearances. This season, he has played in 131 games, showcasing a breakout year with a career-high .350 on-base percentage, 24 home runs, and 72 RBIs. He earned his first selection to the All-Star team and has been a crucial component in keeping Detroit competitive for a wild-card berth.
5. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
WAR: 5.2
Elly De La Cruz is recognized as one of baseball’s premier athletes, demonstrating an impressive combination of speed and power across all areas of his game. He ranks in the 100th percentile for sprint speed, the 98th percentile for defensive range, the 90th percentile for both arm strength and average exit velocity, as well as bat speed. Since his debut last season, De La Cruz has astounded fans, but this year he has taken significant steps forward, achieving a slash line of .260/.341/.473 with 25 home runs and 65 stolen bases, securing his first All-Star selection.
6. Cole Ragans, LHP, Royals
WAR: 4.6
The trade between the Royals and Rangers that brought Cole Ragans to Kansas City in exchange for Aroldis Chapman continues to get better. In his third major league season, Ragans has posted an 11-9 record with a 3.14 ERA and accumulated 223 strikeouts over a league-leading 32 starts. He ranks in the 91st percentile for Whiff% and in the 89th percentile for K%. Opposing hitters are managing only a .181 average against his changeup, which boasts a whiff rate of 48.2%. Ragans has also performed strongly in September, allowing just three runs over 25 innings across four starts.
7. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
WAR: 4.3
Jackson Merrill was drafted as a shortstop in 2021 but had never played center field until the Padres’ spring training this year, where manager Mike Shildt assigned him to the position. The transition has been remarkable; the Padres have seamlessly integrated Merrill in center field. He has performed well, hitting .292 with 24 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and 89 RBIs. Many would argue he has been the standout rookie position player in this year’s class.
8. Jackson Chourio, LF, Brewers
WAR: 3.8
At just 20 years old, Jackson Chourio initially faced difficulties in March and April, batting .206, and his performance barely improved in May with an average of .215. Yet, the Brewers’ management chose to stand by him rather than send him to the minors, a decision that paid off as Chourio rebounded to hit .315 in June, .317 in July, and .321 in August. He also demonstrated his blend of power and speed, contributing 21 home runs and stealing 21 bases to help Milwaukee secure the NL Central title. He is arguably in a close race with Merrill for the title of best rookie position player in MLB this year.
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Luis Gil is one of the favorites to win AL Rookie of the Year. (Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today / Imagn Images)
9. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
WAR: 3.4
Initially signed by the Twins at the age of 17 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Luis Gil was traded to the Yankees three years later for outfielder Jake Cave, marking one of the most significant lopsided trades in general manager Brian Cashman’s history. Gil made his major league debut in 2021, achieving a 3.07 ERA across six starts. However, due to Tommy John surgery, he only made one major league start in 2022 and 2023. This year, he has significantly improved, finishing with a record of 15-6 and a 3.27 ERA over 28 starts. His fastball, reaching 98 mph, along with his impressive breaking pitch, can overpower the toughest hitters. The primary concern is his inconsistency and occasional command issues. Clearly, he stands out as the top rookie starting pitcher in the American League. While it’s uncertain whether Gil or his teammate Austin Wells will ultimately capture the AL Rookie of the Year title, both certainly deserve the recognition.
10. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s
WAR: 2.5
This season, Mason Miller emerged as one of the premier closers in MLB, showcasing a dominating fastball that clocks between 100-104 mph, against which opposing batters have managed only a .168 average, along with a formidable slider yielding a .134 average. He secured 27 saves and recorded 99 strikeouts over 62 2/3 innings. Miller made an impression at his first All-Star Game by delivering the hardest pitch ever recorded in All-Star history at 103.6 mph, along with two strikeouts in a flawless inning. Although he has the potential to evolve into an elite starting pitcher, he prefers his role as a top-notch closer. Regardless of what lies ahead, Miller’s breakout season has been remarkable.
11. Michael King, RHP, Padres
WAR: 3.9
As a key player in the blockbuster trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees, Michael King has significantly contributed to the Padres in his first complete season as a major league starter. He compiled a record of 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA across 31 appearances (30 starts), striking out 201 batters in 173 2/3 innings. Opposing players are hitting just .200 against his sinker and .212 off his changeup. King ranks in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
12. Brenton Doyle, CF, Rockies
WAR: 4.0
While the Rockies faced yet another challenging season at the bottom of the standings, the emergence of Brenton Doyle has been a silver lining, as he has transitioned from …
The OPS improved from .593 last year to .765 this year for Doyle. This season, he has a batting line of .262/.319/.446, contributing 22 home runs and 29 stolen bases while showcasing Gold Glove-quality defense in center field. He ranks in the 98th percentile for fielding run value, also in the 98th percentile for outs above average (range), and reaches the 99th percentile for arm strength. With elite speed, he is positioned in the 94th percentile for sprint speed and the 92nd percentile for baserunning run value. The Rockies have found their long-term solution for center field in Doyle.
13. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox
WAR: 3.8
During the first half of the season, Garrett Crochet emerged as one of the top left-handed starters in the American League, holding a 3.02 ERA with 150 strikeouts across 107 1/3 innings. As trade speculation ramped up at the deadline, Crochet and his agent announced that he would not pitch in the postseason without a contract extension, effectively ending any possibility of a trade from Chicago. Although many experts believed the White Sox might opt to shut him down for the remainder of the season to prioritize both team needs and his health, they ultimately chose to continue using him, albeit in a more limited capacity. In his final 11 starts, he struggled with a 0-6 record and a 5.71 ERA. Nevertheless, this season should undeniably be regarded as a breakout for Crochet; he earned an All-Star selection and is being considered a potential future ace.
14. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Phillies
WAR: 3.5
Last year, Cristopher Sánchez hinted at his potential as a solid starting pitcher, posting a 3.44 ERA over 18 starts and one relief outing. This year, he truly broke out, making the All-Star team and securing 11 wins while maintaining a 3.25 ERA and a 2.95 FIP over 30 starts, totaling 177 innings. The Phillies granted Sánchez a four-year, $22.5 million contract extension in June, which increasingly appears to be a team-friendly deal. His changeup has developed into a devastating pitch; opposing hitters are managing just a .180 batting average against it. He stands in the 98th percentile for chase rate, as batters find it difficult to resist swinging at that pitch, both inside and outside the strike zone.
15. Yainer Diaz, C, Astros
WAR: 3.8
Having played deep into the playoffs for years alongside catcher Martín Maldonado, the Astros made a change this season.
after moving on from the veteran, the team handed the role to Yainer Diaz, who has significantly boosted the offensive output from the position. This season, Diaz has recorded a batting line of .302/.326/.445 along with 29 doubles, 16 home runs, and 84 RBIs. However, his OPS has declined from .846 last year to .771 this season, still placing him fourth among catchers in the majors. On the defensive side, he has effectively blocked balls and limited the running game.
16. Ronel Blanco, RHP, Astros
WAR: 4.0
Making his major league debut in 2022, Ronel Blanco struggled with a 7.11 ERA across seven relief outings. Last season, he transitioned to seven starts and 10 relief appearances, culminating in a 4.50 ERA while allowing nearly five walks per nine innings. This year, however, marks a turnaround; Blanco has achieved a 12-6 record with a 2.88 ERA across 29 appearances (28 starts), highlighted by throwing a no-hitter in his first outing of the season. He has emerged as a crucial starter for the Astros, helping the team cope with injuries in the rotation.
17. Zach Neto, SS, Angels
WAR: 4.9
As one of the key foundations for the Angels, Zach Neto experienced a breakout in his performance, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 30 bases, all while showcasing solid defensive skills at shortstop. Although he still has room for improvement in his defensive game, his manager, Ron Washington, continues to mentor him, and Neto, 23, is showing growth and development.
18. Jurickson Profar, LF, Padres
WAR: 3.7
For reasons unknown, Jurickson Profar garnered minimal interest from teams during last offseason’s free agency, ultimately signing a one-year, $1 million deal with the Padres in late February. This agreement has turned out to be a tremendous asset for San Diego, as Profar is having a career year in his age-31 season, boasting a batting line of .285/.384/.469 (138 OPS+) with 24 home runs and 85 RBIs. He is currently tied for the National League lead in on-base percentage and ranks in the 96th percentile for batting run value. The first-time All-Star has undoubtedly become one of the best value signings of the past year.
19. Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets
WAR: 3.1
The Mets had high hopes for Mark Vientos to assume the role of their everyday third baseman in 2023. However, after 65 games, a .211 batting average, and subpar defensive performance, they…
He recognized that further development was necessary. This year, he has seized his opportunity, showcasing significant defensive improvements through dedication, while hitting .270 with 22 doubles and 26 home runs, infusing New York with energy and enthusiasm.
20. Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox
WAR: 3.9
In the previous year, Tanner Houck recorded a 5.01 ERA across 21 starts. This season, he has incorporated more secondary pitches into his arsenal and achieved much greater success, finishing with a 3.12 ERA over 30 starts and establishing new career milestones in strikeouts (154) and innings pitched (178 2/3). Additionally, he earned a spot on his first All-Star team.
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Paul Skenes: Joe Puetz / Getty Images; Tarik Skubal: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images; Jarren Duran: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
20 MLB Players Who Broke Out in 2024: Surprising Performances and Rising Stars
Introduction to the 2024 MLB Breakouts
The 2024 Major League Baseball (MLB) season has unveiled a plethora of surprising performances and emerging talent. As fans and analysts alike keep a keen eye on the burgeoning stars, we’ve compiled a list of 20 MLB players who truly broke out this season, showcasing their skills, statistics, and impact on their teams.
Key Characteristics of Breakout Players
Breakout players often share common traits that set them apart from their peers:
- Consistency: Regularly contributing to their team’s success.
- Versatility: Ability to perform in various roles or positions.
- Improved Skills: Significant advancements in key areas such as pitching, hitting, or fielding.
- Youth and Energy: A fresh perspective and enthusiasm that can energize a team.
Top 20 MLB Players Who Broke Out in 2024
| Name | Position | Team | Key Stats | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | Outfielder | St. Louis Cardinals | .295 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI | Dynamic presence in the lineup, key in clutch moments. |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Shortstop | Kansas City Royals | .278 AVG, 30 SB, 85 R | Game-changing speed and defensive prowess. |
| Gunnar Henderson | Third Base | Baltimore Orioles | .310 AVG, 23 HR, 75 RBI | Key driver in the Orioles’ resurgence. |
| Triston McKenzie | Pitcher | Cleveland Guardians | 2.90 ERA, 200 K | Dominant on the mound, leading the rotation. |
| Hunter Brown | Pitcher | Houston Astros | 3.10 ERA, 180 K | Emerging as a reliable starter in a championship-caliber team. |
| Estevan Florial | Outfielder | New York Yankees | .260 AVG, 22 HR, 70 RBI | Adding depth to the Yankees’ lineup. |
| Brice Turang | Second Base | Milwaukee Brewers | .285 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI | Solidified the infield with versatility and speed. |
| Spencer Strider | Pitcher | Atlanta Braves | 2.80 ERA, 210 K | Key to Braves’ pitching success. |
| Josh Jung | Third Base | Texas Rangers | .300 AVG, 28 HR, 82 RBI | Future cornerstone for the Rangers. |
| Marco Luciano | Shortstop | San Francisco Giants | .270 AVG, 20 HR, 55 RBI | Promising young talent in Giants’ rebuild. |
| Nick Gonzales | Second Base | Pittsburgh Pirates | .285 AVG, 18 HR, 50 RBI | Emerging as a key player in the Pirates’ lineup. |
| Zack Gelof | Third Base | Oakland Athletics | .290 AVG, 15 HR, 65 RBI | Steady performance in a rebuilding team. |
| Michael Harris II | Outfielder | Atlanta Braves | .280 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI | Crucial part of the Braves’ success. |
| Trevor Story | Shortstop | Boston Red Sox | .265 AVG, 25 HR, 60 RBI | Returned strong after injury issues. |
| Gavin Lux | Shortstop | Los Angeles Dodgers | .290 AVG, 15 HR, 45 RBI | Key contributor to the Dodgers’ success. |
| Kevin Gausman | Pitcher | Toronto Blue Jays | 3.20 ERA, 210 K | Anchoring the Blue Jays’ rotation. |
| Jarren Duran | Outfielder | Boston Red Sox | .275 AVG, 15 HR, 45 RBI | Speed and agility make him a threat on the bases. |
Benefits of Recognizing Breakout Players
Understanding which players are breaking out can have significant benefits:
- Fantasy Baseball Insights: Players with breakout seasons can be valuable assets in fantasy leagues.
- Team Strategies: Recognizing rising stars helps teams in building better rosters.
- Fan Engagement: Knowing who’s performing well keeps fans invested and excited.
- Investment Opportunities: For investors, identifying breakout players can lead to profitable opportunities.
Case Study: Jordan Walker’s Surge
Jordan Walker, an outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals, has seen a dramatic rise in performance during the 2024 season. His transition from prospect to a key player in the Cardinals lineup showcases what being a breakout player looks like.
– **Professional Development:** Walker’s improvement can be attributed to focused training, understanding pitching patterns, and refining his swing mechanics.
– **Impact on Team:** His presence has not only boosted his own statistics but has also uplifted the entire team’s performance, contributing significantly to their playoff push.
Practical Tips for Recognizing Breakout Talent
To spot breakout players in future MLB seasons, consider these practical tips:
1. **Follow Minor League Success:** Many breakout players excelled in the minors before making their mark.
2. **Analyze Stat Trends:** Look for players who show improvement in critical areas such as on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and strikeouts.
3. **Watch Spring Training:** Players often showcase their potential during the preseason, making it a vital time for scouting.
4. **Stay Updated on Injuries:** Opportunities often arise for younger players due to injuries to established stars.
First-Hand Experience with Emerging Talents
Throughout the 2024 season, fans have witnessed the rise of these players first-hand, providing an electrifying atmosphere and memorable moments. Attending games, engaging in discussions with fellow fans, and following MLB news have all contributed to a deeper understanding of how these players have transformed their careers.
By keeping an eye on these breakout stars, fans can not only enjoy the current season but also anticipate the future talent that will shape the game in years to come. With the right blend of skill, determination, and opportunity, these players are set to leave an indelible mark on Major League Baseball.
