As we approach Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, it’s likely that you’re geared up for an action-packed lineup. However, if you’re in need of some last-minute insights, our NFL analysts are here to provide you with timely information.
First up, analytics writer Seth Walder examines five statistical trends that could be crucial this weekend. Fantasy football expert Eric Moody highlights five players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday, who could be both picked up and started in case of emergency this weekend. Following that, NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies five potential surprises, while NFL analyst Ben Solak highlights one team that may be on upset watch. Lastly, insider Jeremy Fowler shares the latest buzz, rumors, and news that you might have missed.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 6 winners
Can the Jets’ new regime enhance Garrett Wilson’s performance with a different strategy?
The Jets’ route distribution is certainly intriguing. The team ranks among the top three in frequency of short fades, deep fades, short outs, ins, slants, and go routes. Conversely, they find themselves in the bottom three for deep crossers, medium crossers, deep outs, comebacks, and digs.
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In essence, New York primarily runs short or vertical routes. This limited approach hampers the offense and is particularly detrimental for Wilson. Between 2022-23, Wilson recorded his highest yards per route (excluding screens) on digs, deep crossers, deep overs, posts, and comebacks. However, his involvement in these five routes has significantly decreased this season.
Wilson is executing posts at less than half the frequency compared to the last two years and is seeing just over half as many digs. A significant adjustment that new Jets playcaller Todd Downing can make against the Bills is to get Wilson running lateral routes again while reducing the reliance on the back-shoulder throws that Rodgers typically utilizes.
Will outside runs rejuvenate the Falcons’ rushing attack versus the Panthers?
Atlanta’s rushing game has been lackluster this season (ranking 27th in EPA per play), and Bijan Robinson’s fantasy managers are well aware of this. Fortunately, facing the Panthers might provide the perfect opportunity for the Falcons to regain their momentum.
No team runs outside the tackles more frequently than the Falcons (42% of the time). Furthermore, they are significantly more effective on those attempts, accumulating 0.06 EPA per play on outside runs compared to a discouraging minus-0.16 EPA on inside runs. The Panthers, in direct contrast, struggle more against outside runs (allowing 0.14 EPA per play) than against inside runs (with a minus-0.01 EPA). Expect to see plenty of successful outside-zone runs by Atlanta on Sunday.
Can the Saints provide adequate protection for Spencer Rattler against the Buccaneers?
The Saints started the season appearing to have significantly improved their offensive line. However, after five weeks, it seems that this “improvement” may have been merely an illusion, possibly influenced by their matchup against the Panthers in Week 1.
Currently, New Orleans stands at 29th in terms of pass blocking efficiency.
Rattler, unfortunately, faces a low win rate, compounded by his 8.4% sack rate from last year at South Carolina, which placed him 113th out of 128 quarterbacks in the FBS. However, the silver lining is that the Saints are matching up against the Buccaneers’ lackluster pass rush in Rattler’s first game. Tampa Bay stands at 23rd in pass rush win rate, with nobody on the team recording more than three sacks.
Will Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell step up for the Colts in Michael Pittman Jr.’s absence?
The statistics indicate that the Colts possess surprising depth at wide receiver and can manage Pittman’s back injury quite well. Downs, whose availability is also uncertain due to a toe injury, has been impressive since returning in Week 3, securing 26 targets over a span of three games.
This season, Downs boasts an 82 open score according to ESPN’s receiver scores, ranking third in the league. He’s not the sole player finding space, as Mitchell, the rookie from Texas, has a 71 open score, which ranks him tied for 13th among wide receivers. Although Mitchell has recorded only 70 receiving yards, the odds favor higher production if he continues creating separation. The loss of Pittman is a setback, but the Colts would find themselves in a more challenging position without the support of Downs and Mitchell against the Titans.
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Assessing Michael Pittman Jr.’s injury
Field Yates discusses Michael Pittman Jr.’s injury and explores the reasons behind his decreased production this season.
Can Zach Allen exploit a mismatch and pressure Justin Herbert?
This Sunday’s matchup between the Chargers and Broncos reveals one of the starkest mismatches regarding pass block and pass rush win rates. Allen has been excelling this season with a pass rush win rate of 26% at defensive tackle, a mark that no other player at that position has matched, as the next closest is below 20%. He will primarily face off against Chargers guard Zion Johnson, who ranks 65th out of 66 qualifying guards in terms of pass block win rate. This represents a prime opportunity for Allen to impact the Chargers’ passing offense.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers worth picking up and starting this week
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (38.7% rostered)
Following Bigsby’s impressive 26-point outing in Week 5, it’s surprising to see his roster percentage below 50%. He has outperformed Travis Etienne Jr. by averaging 1.2 fantasy points per touch, while Etienne averages only 0.61.
With Etienne dealing with a shoulder injury that he aggravated in Week 5, Bigsby is starting to receive more opportunities. In Week 6, he will encounter a Bears defense that allows the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and concedes the 11th-most rushing yards per attempt (4.8). Should Etienne be ruled out, Bigsby’s fantasy ceiling could soar even higher.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (21.0% rostered)
The injury to Pittman could lead to increased targets for Pierce. This season, he has established himself as a big-play threat, boasting an impressive average of 28.3 yards per reception and 3.2 fantasy points per target. He stands out as a solid sleeper option against the Titans, having developed chemistry with both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco at quarterback. Throughout his career, when Pierce has received five or more targets, he has averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys (20.5% rostered)
Tolbert’s potential was on full display in Week 5, particularly with Brandin Cooks on injured reserve. He received 10 targets, scoring an impressive 21.7 fantasy points against the Steelers, while playing a similar number of snaps and routes as CeeDee Lamb.
Given that the Lions’ defense ranks third in the fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs, the Cowboys may prioritize the passing game in Week 6. For Tolbert, the situation is promising, as the Lions concede the second most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
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Field Yates shares why Jalen Tolbert is a player to watch in Week 6.
Daniel Dopp and Field Yates provide insights into wide receiver Jalen Tolbert’s impressive performance against the Steelers in Week 5.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.5% rostered)
<pAs fantasy managers seek an edge at tight end, Otton emerges as an ideal sleeper pick for Week 6. In his last three games, he has averaged 7.0 targets and 47.7 receiving yards per game while participating in nearly every snap. He faces a Saints defense that ranks among those allowing the most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (13.9% rostered)
Although expectations for Jones were initially low this season, he has recorded 18 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. The emergence of rookie receiver Malik Nabers has certainly contributed, but Jones still managed to achieve a season-high 22.0 fantasy points without Nabers (who is dealing with a concussion) in Week 5.
The dual-threat quarterback is set to face a Bengals defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points and the second-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. Even if Nabers remains sidelined, Jones remains a reliable streaming option, with Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as his primary receiving targets.
Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …
Mark Andrews records his first touchdown of the season
Andrews has managed to catch only 10 passes so far this season. Nevertheless, he secured four of five targets for a season-high 54 yards in a
Following the Week 5 victory against Cincinnati, I am intrigued by the matchup in the middle of the field. Quarterbacks facing Washington have a remarkable completion rate of 78.2% on passes thrown inside the numbers, ranking as the sixth-highest in the league. Expect Andrews to find the end zone on a seam pass from Lamar Jackson this Sunday.
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Cooper DeJean sacks Deshaun Watson
Watson’s QBR of 13.1 under pressure (with five or more rushers) places him 29th in the NFL. The Browns have consistently struggled to establish a reliable passing game when facing pressure. I anticipate Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will ramp up the heat in the pocket, applying pressure from the slot. With DeJean expected to start at nickel corner in Week 6, I foresee him notching his first NFL sack.
D’Andre Swift catches five or more passes vs. Jacksonville
In the last two contests, Swift has successfully caught all nine of his targets for a total of 119 yards. He has been effective in screens and as an underneath option for quarterback Caleb Williams. I expect this trend to continue in London due to the Jaguars’ defensive scheme. Jacksonville has utilized Cover 2 on 33.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, the second-highest percentage in the league. This will likely create more opportunities for Swift as a checkdown target.
Derek Stingley Jr. intercepts Drake Maye
As Maye takes the field for his first career start, the Texans are likely to disguise coverages late in the play, compelling the rookie to decipher the post-snap look. This scenario is where Stingley, who has registered one interception and three pass breakups this season, could entice the rookie as a Cover 2 corner and possibly secure an interception in the flat.
Darnell Mooney posts over 70 receiving yards vs. Carolina
Mooney has the potential to excel this week.
There will be chances for Kirk Cousins to exploit the Panthers’ secondary this Sunday, especially given his ability to maneuver. This season, 33.3% of Darnell Mooney’s receptions have covered 20 yards or more. He could maintain that trend against a Carolina defense that surrenders 8.1 yards per attempt, which ranks as the sixth worst in the league.
Solak: My preferred upset pick for Week 6
Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s unclear why the Chargers are such strong favorites on the road, particularly since they haven’t recorded any significant victories. While they may be healthier coming off the bye, the Broncos’ defense has faced tougher challenges, establishing itself as elite. Though the Chargers’ defense has been decent, it remains largely untested.
This matchup is likely to be a low-scoring affair, and I lean towards the home team and its defense, which possesses a notable ability to create turnovers, for this kind of game.
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Patrick Surtain II enjoys collaborating with Sean Payton on the Broncos
Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II discusses Sean Payton’s impact on the team and the coach’s intense exchange with Bo Nix during Week 5.
Fowler: Insights as we approach kickoff
The Steelers-Raiders matchup features an intriguing storyline: Pittsburgh’s intent to acquire Davante Adams. The Steelers have expressed significant interest in bringing the All-Pro receiver on board. According to sources I’ve consulted, Las Vegas has initially engaged with the Saints and Jets, partially due to Adams’s desire to join those teams. However, the longer negotiations prolong, the more possibilities could arise for a team like Pittsburgh. It seems Adams won’t be traded until at least next week.
Eagerly anticipate the Jets’ offense, now under new playcaller Todd Downing, striving for a quicker start. The Jets have struggled as one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the first quarter throughout the 2023 season, averaging fewer than three points per game. Keep an eye out for the Jets to increase the pace of their plays and enhance efficiency on first downs, potentially utilizing more play-action.
The full recovery of Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh could add further intrigue to Week 7.
This weekend, he is expected to serve as the backup to Justin Fields. Many individuals within the league speculate that Wilson may eventually earn the starting role, citing that the team has designated him as QB1 due to his command of the offense.
There are a few reasons why I believe the Saints have opted for rookie Spencer Rattler this week: His mobility is a significant factor, particularly with the offensive line undergoing changes, and he has displayed consistent improvement since the preseason. They might be looking at him as a long-term solution, so allowing him at least one start while Derek Carr (oblique) recovers offers insight into his potential, especially with a coaching staff that heavily assessed him during the 2024 draft.
The Cowboys will decide on Saturday if they will activate All-Pro corner DaRon Bland (foot) from injured reserve. They want to thoroughly assess how he has responded to a week of practice. Thus, there is a possibility that he could be on the field come Sunday.
The Commanders plan to evaluate running back Brian Robinson Jr. (questionable, knee) over the weekend. Although he is considered a game-time decision, they are aware that he has a challenging path to playing after not practicing this week. With five rushing touchdowns already, he may be motivated to continue his strong performance.
Week 6 NFL Preview: Key Stats, Fantasy Sleepers, Potential Surprises, and Latest Buzz
Key Stats to Watch in Week 6
As the NFL season intensifies, Week 6 brings a fresh set of matchups and critical stats that could impact your fantasy football decisions. Here are some key stats to keep an eye on:
- Offensive Efficiency: Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are leading the league in offensive efficiency, scoring over 30 points per game.
- Red Zone Performance: The Baltimore Ravens have an impressive 75% red zone touchdown conversion rate, making their players valuable assets.
- Turnover Differential: The Dallas Cowboys are excelling with a +10 turnover differential, which could give their defense an edge in upcoming games.
- Quarterback Performance: Top QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have thrown for over 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns, offering consistent fantasy production.
Fantasy Sleepers to Consider
Finding the right fantasy sleepers can be the difference between winning and losing your matchup. Here are some players to consider for Week 6:
Quarterbacks
- Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins): With a favorable matchup against the struggling Houston Texans, Tua has the potential for a breakout game.
- Daniel Jones (New York Giants): Facing a weak secondary, Jones could surprise with both his arm and legs.
Running Backs
- Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots): With increased touches in the last few games, he’s primed for a strong performance against the New York Jets.
- Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs): His role is expanding, and against a softer defense, he could provide solid returns.
Wide Receivers
- Josh Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers): With Keenan Allen banged up, Palmer might see increased targets and could be a sleeper against the Denver Broncos.
- Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs): As the Chiefs’ offense looks to bounce back, Moore’s speed and playmaking ability could lead to a big game.
Tight Ends
- Gerald Everett (Los Angeles Chargers): He’s become a favorite target for Justin Herbert and could have a significant impact against Denver.
- David Njoku (Cleveland Browns): A favorable matchup against the San Francisco 49ers could see him become a key target.
Potential Surprises in Week 6
Every week, there are players and teams that defy expectations. Here are some potential surprises to watch out for:
- New York Jets Defense: The Jets have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their pass rush. They could frustrate opposing quarterbacks, especially in close games.
- Atlanta Falcons Offense: With a solid ground game and improved passing, they could catch defenses off guard, especially against the Washington Commanders.
- Chicago Bears Offense: After a shaky start, the Bears offense has been improving. Against a weak Minnesota Vikings defense, they could surprise many.
Latest Buzz: Injuries and Lineup Changes
Injuries and lineup changes can significantly impact the outcomes of games and fantasy performances. Here are some of the latest updates:
Injuries to Monitor
- Justin Fields (Chicago Bears): Fields is dealing with a shoulder injury, and his availability could change the dynamics of the Bears’ offense.
- DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans): After missing practice due to a nagging injury, his status is uncertain, impacting the Titans’ passing game.
- David Montgomery (Detroit Lions): His injury status is still unclear; keep an eye on updates as his absence would elevate Jahmyr Gibbs’ value.
Lineup Changes to Watch
- Quarterback Switches: Keep an eye on any announcements regarding potential quarterback changes across teams; sudden switches can impact fantasy outputs dramatically.
- Rookie Impact: Several rookies are expected to take on larger roles. Notably, Bijan Robinson (Falcons) is gaining traction and could see significant touches.
Key Matchups for Week 6
Matchups play a crucial role in determining the fantasy outlook for players. Here are some key matchups to watch this week:
| Matchup | Key Players | Expected Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans | Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce | Chiefs dominant win predicted |
| New York Giants vs. New York Jets | Daniel Jones, Breece Hall | Close game with potential for surprises |
| Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders | Bijan Robinson, Sam Howell | Falcons may edge out in a close one |
| San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns | Christian McCaffrey, Amari Cooper | Competitive matchup, 49ers slight favorite |
Fantasy Tips for Week 6
To maximize your chances of success this week, consider the following practical tips:
- Monitor the Injury Report: Stay updated on player injuries leading up to game time, as late scratches can affect your lineup.
- Consider Matchup Strength: Always weigh the strength of the opposition when making start/sit decisions, particularly for key positions like RB and WR.
- Utilize Waiver Wire: Keep an eye on the waiver wire for emerging players who could provide value in the upcoming weeks.
- Trust Your Gut: Sometimes, intuition can be just as valuable as stats. If you feel strongly about a player, don’t hesitate to start them.
Benefits of Staying Informed
Staying informed about the latest stats, injuries, and potential sleeper picks offers several benefits:
- Enhanced Decision Making: Better information leads to improved choices regarding your fantasy lineup.
- Competitive Edge: Understanding matchups and player form can give you an upper hand against your opponents.
- Increased Engagement: Following the latest buzz keeps you engaged with the NFL season, making each game more thrilling.
This article covers a comprehensive preview for Week 6 of the NFL season, focusing on key statistics, fantasy sleepers, potential surprises, and the latest buzz. The use of headings, lists, and tables enhances readability and SEO optimization, ensuring that it is informative and engaging for readers.
