The 2024 NFL season has already presented numerous surprises, with the Minnesota Vikings keeping pace with the Kansas City Chiefs by achieving a flawless 5-0 record, while the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North despite a dynamic comeback from Joe Burrow. Often, it appears that there is no such thing as a “safe bet” on the NFL calendar each week, but we are here to help you anticipate what lies ahead.
We have gathered the finest picks and gambling insights from CBSSports.com and SportsLine into a single resource, allowing you to access expert recommendations against the spread from our CBS Sports analysts, alongside additional features for each game. These include insights from top SportsLine experts, the SportsLine Projection Model, staff best bets, survivor picks, and much more. Ready to dive in? Let’s get started.
All NFL odds derived from SportsLine consensus odds.
Jaguars at Bears
Time: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Jaguars -1, O/U 46.5
SportsLine’s Projection Model runs 10,000 simulations for each NFL game, and its top-rated picks have yielded up to $7,900 for $100 players since its establishment. For Week 6, the model forecasts a 25-21 victory for the Bears, who manage to secure a straight-up win in almost 60% of simulations. The Jaguars recently secured their first win of the season, yet their defensive struggles have been apparent. For the complete SportsLine projection for this matchup and additional Week 6 picks, click here.
Cardinals at Packers
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Packers -4.5, O/U 47.5
This season has seen Arizona emerge as an exciting team, showcasing an impressive pace in their scoring. While Kyler Murray didn’t make a significant impact following his 50+ yard run against San Francisco, I anticipate he will be more effective in this matchup, especially with Trey McBride serving as a prominent target. The Packers have demonstrated offensive sharpness throughout the season and are likely to exploit explosive opportunities with Jordan Love regaining full health. Jayden Reed has been outstanding, and there’s nowhere for Dontayvion Wicks to go but up! Expect big points ahead.
CBS Sports senior writer Will Brinson is backing the Over in this matchup. To view the rest of his best bets and predictions for Week 6, click here.
Colts at Titans
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (Paramount+)
Open: Colts -2, O/U 45
SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein utilizes a comprehensive network of Vegas sources alongside an analytical perspective he developed while working for Pro Football Focus to predict each week’s NFL games. Since 2022, his weekly Vegas contest selections have achieved a record of 84-57-3 (59.6%). Hartstein is particularly confident in the Titans’ ability to cover against the Colts: “During the final 42 plays of their defeat to Jacksonville, the Colts surrendered 419 yards, averaging nearly 10 yards per play. This is the perfect opportunity for a Titans offense that continues to back Will Levis,” he stated to SportsLine. For his complete analysis and prediction, click here.
Texans at Patriots
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Texans -4.5, O/U 42.5
“Drake Maye is set to start for the struggling Patriots, but interestingly, rookie quarterbacks have achieved success by covering and winning in their last seven starts. Furthermore, 7-point underdogs have impressively recorded a 7-2 straight-up record this season, marking the best performance by such underdogs over a five-week period since 1970. To provide context, 7-plus point underdogs posted a 15-50 record in 2023. While the Patriots lack a solid offensive line and Pro Bowl-caliber skill players, the Texans recently lost Nico Collins for four games, and Joe Mixon along with three starting offensive linemen did not practice on Wednesday. New England is likely to keep it close.”
CBS Sports writer Jordan Dajani believes Houston will secure a “W,” but not by a wide margin. His complete analysis, along with additional Week 6 best bets, can be found here.
Buccaneers at Saints
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Saints -1, O/U 42
“The Saints are in a challenging situation. Besides Derek Carr’s injury concerns, New Orleans is gearing up for an important divisional clash against a Buccaneers team that is benefiting from a mini-bye after playing last Thursday. Baker Mayfield has been delivering high-caliber performances this season and stands at 9-2 ATS as the Bucs’ starting quarterback on the road. The extra rest and the disappointment of narrowly losing an overtime match to Atlanta in Week 5 should provide Tampa Bay the motivation needed to secure a win on the road.”
CBS Sports writer Tyler Sullivan is backing Tampa Bay in this matchup. For his complete Week 6 analysis, including best bets and picks for all critical matchups, click here.
Browns at Eagles
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (<a href="https://www.fubo.tv/welcome/leagues/191277?irad=356362&irmp=416484&shared
try for free
Open: Eagles -3, O/U 46.5
As Week 6 approaches, SportsLine’s Projection Model boasts an impressive record of 10-2 on its top-rated NFL picks this season. When determining the safest picks for survivor pools this weekend, the model surprisingly advises against selecting the Eagles, despite Philadelphia being the week’s biggest favorite. The Eagles permitted a season-high 33 points in their previous game, whereas Cleveland has unexpectedly performed well in the red zone. Although projections indicate a greater than 60% chance of a Philadelphia victory in numerous simulations, the model opts to conserve the Eagles for another week. For a comprehensive analysis of the best survivor pool options, check out the details over at SportsLine.
Commanders at Ravens
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Ravens -6.5, O/U 49.5
“I want to acknowledge the achievements of the Commanders – Jayden Daniels has been impressive, and Washington seems to have found its franchise quarterback – but I remain somewhat skeptical. Their four victories have come against teams with a combined record of 6-14. They haven’t defeated any team with a winning record, and their defense has shown significant inconsistency. … I can’t go against the Ravens, especially considering Lamar Jackson’s track record against NFC teams. His career record stands at 21-1 versus the NFC, which includes a streak of nine consecutive wins.”
CBS Sports columnist John Breech appreciates Washington’s progress but is firmly backing Baltimore to put an end to the Commanders’ momentum. You can find all his Week 6 predictions right here.
Chargers at Broncos
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chargers -2.5, O/U 42.5
Utilizing state-of-the-art artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, SportsLine’s Data Science team has developed AI Predictions and AI Ratings to forecast every matchup this season. For Week 6, the AI PickBot predicts that the Broncos will cover as 3-point home underdogs against the Chargers. Justin Herbert continues to recover from a sprained right ankle he sustained during a loss to the Chiefs and may have limited mobility this week following a bye. This scenario is challenging against a Denver defense that ranks second in points allowed and third in yards allowed. For the complete list of AI-enhanced picks, check right here.
Steelers at Raiders
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (<a href="https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/nfl-on-cbs/?ftag=PPM-22-10
click here)
Open: Steelers -1, O/U 43.5
“Aidan O’Connell takes over as the starting quarterback from Gardner Minshew, who was benched last week. O’Connell will be challenged by a strong Pittsburgh defense. In response, the Steelers will field Justin Fields, who is eager to deliver a solid performance to silence his critics and quell the comparisons to Russell Wilson. I believe Fields will outperform O’Connell, securing the victory for the Raiders.”
According to CBS Sports senior columnist Pete Prisco, the idea that Antonio Pierce’s recent quarterback changes will lead to a significant turnaround for Las Vegas is not convincing. You can find all of Prisco’s predictions for Week 6 right here.
Lions at Cowboys
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -3, O/U 50.5
“Dallas required a last-second touchdown to defeat a struggling Steelers offense on Sunday night. This week, the Cowboys will face a more proficient opponent in the Lions, who will enter AT&T Stadium as road favorites. Under Dan Campbell’s leadership, the Lions have achieved a 6-2 ATS record when favored on the road. In contrast, the Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games. It’s also important to mention that Detroit will have a rest advantage, having come off a bye week. The Lions boast a 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games following a bye.”
CBS Sports writer Tyler Sullivan believes all signs indicate a convincing win for Detroit. You can view all his Week 6 selections and top betting recommendations right here.
Falcons at Panthers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Falcons -3, O/U 42.5
The Projection Model at SportsLine has consistently ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for four of the past six years with its straight-up NFL picks, outperforming over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em participants four times during that period. For Week 6, the model indicates that the Falcons are likely to cover the spread against the Panthers well over 50% of the time, establishing Atlanta as one of the strongest bets this weekend. Discover SportsLine’s complete analysis of suggested picks right here.
Bengals at Giants
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Bengals -5.5, O/U 44
R.J. White, managing editor of Fantasy and gambling for CBS Sports, has successfully placed bets in the prestigious Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest on two occasions. He is also well-informed about the Giants, amassing a 52-27 (+2176) record on his last 79 picks involving New York. Will he…
Will Daniel Jones and his team be able to create challenges for the defensively struggling Bengals during prime time? You can read his comprehensive analysis and prediction for this matchup here at SportsLine.
Bills at Jets
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN), available for streaming on fubo (try for free)
Open: Jets -1.5, O/U 46.5
David Tierney, an expert at SportsLine, boasts a record of 154-124-9 for NFL picks over the past two years, providing a return of $1,586 to $100 bettors (with each bet valued at 1 unit). He has shown impressive performance regarding the Bills, with a record of 41-27-4 (+1162) in his last 72 predictions involving the team. Will the recent coaching changes for the Jets, including the dismissal of Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett’s replacement as offensive play-caller, drive Aaron Rodgers and his teammates to a prime-time victory against their AFC East opponents? You can find his in-depth analysis and prediction here.
Week 6 NFL Betting Preview: Key Matchups and Expert Picks for the 2024 Season
Key Matchups to Watch in Week 6
As we dive into Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, the betting landscape is heating up. Fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating some thrilling matchups that could change the dynamics of the league. Here are the key games to keep an eye on:
1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
This matchup features two of the league’s most explosive offenses. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, boast a high-scoring attack, while the Bills, spearheaded by Josh Allen, can strike quickly. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this a must-watch game.
- Current Line: Chiefs -3
- Total Points: 54.5
2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The 49ers have been a dominant force in the NFC, while the Eagles are looking to maintain their playoff hopes. Expect a strategic battle between both coaches, as they will likely exploit any weaknesses on the opposing defense.
- Current Line: 49ers -2.5
- Total Points: 48.0
3. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins are riding high after a spectacular start to the season, but divisional games can be unpredictable. The Jets will be looking to upset their rivals at home, making this a key matchup for both teams in the AFC East.
- Current Line: Dolphins -6
- Total Points: 47.5
Expert Picks and Betting Strategies
With the matchups set, here are some expert picks and betting strategies to help you navigate your betting options for Week 6:
Betting on the Chiefs vs. Bills
Given the offensive firepower on both sides, betting the over might be a wise choice. Look for both teams to exploit defensive weaknesses, leading to a high-scoring affair.
- Pick: Bet on Over 54.5 points.
- Expert Tip: Consider placing a small wager on Mahomes to throw for over 300 yards.
Analyzing the 49ers vs. Eagles
This game could be a close one, and with San Francisco’s defense performing exceptionally, consider betting on them to cover the spread.
- Pick: Bet on 49ers -2.5.
- Expert Tip: Watch for the injury report, as key players could sway the betting line dynamically.
Dolphins vs. Jets Insights
The Dolphins have shown consistency, but divisional rivalries can be tricky. A bet on the Jets to cover the spread could be valuable, particularly if they play at home with a chip on their shoulder.
- Pick: Bet on Jets +6.
- Expert Tip: Look for the total points to be low; consider betting the under if the weather is bad.
Betting Trends and Data Insights
Understanding trends can help give you an edge in NFL betting. Here are some trends to consider for Week 6:
Team | Last 5 Games | Covers Spread | Over/Under Record |
---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | 4-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Buffalo Bills | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
San Francisco 49ers | 5-0 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 4-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Miami Dolphins | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
New York Jets | 2-3 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
Benefits of Advanced Statistics in Betting
When it comes to NFL betting, utilizing advanced statistics can provide a significant advantage. Here are some benefits:
- Predictive Analytics: Advanced stats can help forecast future performances based on historical data.
- Market Value: Understanding statistical trends allows bettors to identify value bets that the public might overlook.
- Player Performance Insights: Analyzing individual player metrics can aid in prop betting, such as touchdowns or yardage.
Case Studies: Successful Betting Strategies
Examining past betting strategies can help refine your approach. Here are two case studies from previous seasons:
Case Study 1: The “Home Underdog” Strategy
In the 2022 season, betting on home underdogs produced a 62% success rate. Bettors who focused on teams with strong home-field advantages often found value in spreads.
Case Study 2: Quarterback Performance Metrics
During the 2023 season, bettors who monitored quarterback completion percentages and passer ratings were able to capitalize on favorable odds. Betting against the spread based on these metrics proved profitable, especially in matchups against strong defenses.
Practical Tips for NFL Betting
To enhance your betting strategy in Week 6, consider these practical tips:
- Stay Informed: Regularly check injury reports as they can significantly impact game outcomes and betting lines.
- Line Shopping: Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bets.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for betting each week and stick to it to ensure long-term success.
Conclusion
By analyzing key matchups, utilizing expert picks, and understanding betting trends, you can position yourself for a successful Week 6 in the NFL. Stay informed, trust your research, and enjoy the excitement that this season brings!