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Believe me, I understand.
I’m right there with you.
I truly mean that. Whatever challenges you’re facing, I’m experiencing them too. This year, I’m involved in 25 leagues, not including best ball, which is far too many. Plus, since you can join a Guillotine League at any time (as long as you have one more league member than there are weeks left in the NFL season), I have even more drafts lined up.
So yes, that’s a lot of leagues. I assure you, if something went wrong for you in Week 1, it likely affected at least one of my teams as well. Did you find yourself “using” Christian McCaffrey, only to receive a zero because everyone else on your roster had already played and was locked? I’ve been there. Did you realize Jordan Mason was sitting at the end of your bench, and when you finally put him in your lineup, he helped you pull off a thrilling comeback victory on Monday night? Yep, I’ve done that too.
Was your top tight end (whether it be Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, or any of the others) a dud and cost you a win? How about one of your star wide receivers? Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin, or Amari Cooper were all prominent names that produced disappointingly. Or worse still, what if you lost Puka Nacua for an extended period?
Perhaps you’re feeling optimistic after seeing impressive performances from some mid- to late-round picks like Rhamondre Stevenson, Jerome Ford, or J.K. Dobbins… and even Alexander Mattison and Tank Bigsby had solid outings. Did you end up losing because your stars underperformed? Or because lesser players unexpectedly excelled against you? I’ve been there, done that, and got the t-shirt.
It doesn’t really matter, even if that was the case.
And you know why?
Because it was Week 1. We don’t know anything yet. You may feel like you have all the answers, but the truth is, you don’t. Just one week and one game can bring tremendous changes. I made very few waiver wire moves this week. Partly because I was preoccupied and, well, 25 teams. But also because I really like my rosters, and after just one week, there wasn’t much that needed adjusting.
I’m certain there are much worse scenarios than dropping a late-round sleeper only to see that player picked up and excel for someone else in your league; I just can’t recall many at the moment.
In Week 1 of 2023, rookie running back De’Von Achane was a healthy scratch. Rachaad White had a mere 6% target share and scored under 7.0 points. Tank Dell (despite my preseason enthusiasm for him) played just 46% of snaps and managed only 6.4 points.
Oh, and don’t forget that in Week 1 of 2023
In contrast to last year’s Week 1, where star players failed to make an impact, several lesser-known players made headlines and ignited excitement on the waiver wire. For instance, Mac Jones emerged as QB2 during that week, racking up 24.1 fantasy points. Chargers running back Joshua Kelley rushed for 91 yards and scored a touchdown on just 13 carries, finishing as RB12. Tony Pollard scored two touchdowns, totaling 22.2 fantasy points, and secured the RB5 position. Darnell Mooney contributed 15.3 fantasy points, placing him among the top 20 wide receivers. Moreover, tight end Hayden Hurst garnered 15.1 fantasy points, ending Week 1 as the TE2 in fantasy football.
However, this early success did not last. Mac Jones would subsequently score fewer than 14 fantasy points in nine out of the next ten games before being replaced by Bailey Zappe in Week 13. Despite starting the following three games due to Austin Ekeler’s injury and participating in all 17 games, Joshua Kelley finished the season as RB64, averaging only 4.4 points per game. Pollard managed to score just four more touchdowns over the next 16 games, settling as RB24 in points per game from Week 2 onwards. Mooney, likewise, only had one additional game with double-digit fantasy points, concluding the season as WR86 in points per game.
Indeed.
It’s just one week.
More importantly, it’s the opening week.
I’m not suggesting you dismiss everything that occurs in Week 1. Certain events truly do indicate future trends. For instance, last year in Week 1, rookie Puka Nacua, drafted in the fifth round, caught 10 passes for 119 yards on 15 targets, landing him a spot among the top 10 wide receivers. He later broke the NFL record for receptions and receiving yards by a rookie. Mike Evans, previously overlooked by numerous drafters, scored a touchdown against the Vikings and ultimately finished with 13 touchdowns—his third time accomplishing this feat in four seasons. It marked his tenth consecutive season with over 1,000 receiving yards. Similarly, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards in Week 1, leading the league with a total of 4,624 passing yards by the season’s end.
Thus, some performances from Week 1 can indeed forecast the season’s trajectory. If you’ve followed my opinions this preseason, you know I have high hopes for Rashee Rice this year. Week 1 reinforced that belief for me. Additionally, Jameson Williams’ usage and snap count hint at a significantly larger and more fantasy-friendly role this season. Although I don’t anticipate him accumulating over 33 touches for 178 total yards each week, Joe Mixon’s Week 1 performance does not appear to be merely a fluke.
So, I’m not advocating for you to disregard all of Week 1’s performances. However, I urge you not to overreact. Avoid panicking or making hasty decisions you might come to regret. There is an abundance of football still to be played. A LOT. I would argue that it takes about four weeks of play to truly assess your team’s potential this season. THEN, it’s appropriate to begin either worrying or celebrating, as there will be a more substantial sample size.
In the meantime, resist the urge to chase after this year’s versions of Joshua Kelley and Hayden Hurst. Don’t freak out about your star players who underperformed; instead, let’s concentrate on Week 2. You have a game to win.
Here we go.
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Merci, comme toujours, à mon producteur Damian Dabrowski pour son aide à divers moments de cette chronique. Voici donc :
Quarterbacks que j’adore pour la Semaine 2
Jayden Daniels contre New York Giants
Le futur quarterback gagnant du Super Bowl et potentiel Hall of Famer Jayden Daniels figure sur la liste des coups de cœur de cette semaine, non seulement parce qu’il est le QB de mon équipe favorite, mais aussi parce que, bien qu’il ait eu un début de saison hésitant sur le plan NFL, il a brillé du côté fantasy. Daniels a réalisé 16 courses lors“`html
Richardson at Green Bay
Anthony Richardson has now participated in three complete games during his NFL career and has achieved over 20 fantasy points in each one. (Checks notes). Indeed, that’s impressive. Each game included over 40 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. In Week 1, he was responsible for 33% of the Colts’ red zone rushes and 25% of their goal-line attempts. Additionally, he recorded a 16.4 average depth of target (aDOT) in that week, with deep passes constituting 32% of his attempts. Therefore, the conclusion is that Anthony Richardson will either bulldoze through defenses or make deep throws. It’s as if he was engineered specifically to generate fantasy points. I expect him to produce significantly in Week 2 against a Packers defense that allowed two touchdowns from deep passes in their opening game while starting Malik Willis; this setup suggests the Colts will frequently reclaim possession and likely be in advantageous field positions. Richardson ranks as my QB6.
Justin Fields at Denver
So yes, I have a preference for running quarterbacks this week. And in life. I’m enthusiastic about life. Occasionally, bacon too. But primarily, it’s about those scrambling quarterbacks. Except Malik Willis. Anyway, back to Fields. In Week 1, Justin Fields carried the ball 14 times, including handling 44% of Pittsburgh’s red zone rushing attempts. This is significant because, in Fields’ 17 career games where he rushed 10 times or more, he averages 21.5 fantasy points per game. Given that the Broncos allowed a 34-yard rushing touchdown to Geno Smith in Week 1, I anticipate Fields will find opportunities to run in this matchup. I have Fields positioned as my QB9 for Week 2. Also, keep an eye on Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation leading up to kickoff just in case Russell Wilson is active. Actually, Russell will likely wear his uniform even if he’s inactive again due to his odd tendencies. So, I should clarify: monitor the situation in case Russell Wilson starts.
Others receiving votes: A major factor in Arizona’s collapse after a 14-point lead against the Bills in their opener was their pass defense. The Cardinals surrendered 10.1 yards per attempt and the third-highest passer rating in Week 1. This is promising for Matthew Stafford in a game projected with one of the highest totals in Week 2 at 47.5. … In a playoff loss at Detroit last season, Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns. He returns to Detroit after the Lions allowed the second-most passing yards in Week 1. The Bucs-Lions matchup also boasts the highest game total of the week at 51.5. By the way, Detroit is just a 2-hour and 40-minute drive from Cleveland. I mention this for any Browns fans considering making the trip to encourage Baker Mayfield to come back to Cleveland. … In Week 1, Washington allowed 29.7 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield, and dating back to last season, eight of the last nine quarterbacks facing Washington have scored at least 17.5 fantasy points. If there’s any week for Daniel Jones to bounce back, it’s this one.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s positional rankings for Week 2
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The Eagles will face off against Jordan Love, who struggled in Week 1 with a completion percentage of only 50%. Additionally, this game will be broadcast on Monday Night Football, a format that has historically posed challenges for Cousins. To put things into perspective, over his last seven Monday night appearances, Cousins has averaged a mere 13.2 fantasy points per game (PPG). Although the season is still unfolding, I need to observe some improvement from Cousins and the Falcons’ passing attack before I can confidently suggest starting him. As of now, I have him ranked as QB21 for Week 2.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Cleveland
Ranked just above Cousins at QB20, Trevor Lawrence faces a challenging matchup. In their last game against Dallas, Cleveland allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt and kept Dak Prescott’s completion percentage below 60%. Additionally, Lawrence’s usage is concerning; Jacksonville was 26th in pass rate during Week 1. The disarray within Cleveland’s offense leads me to believe they won’t score extensively in a 1 p.m. ET game under Jacksonville’s heat, reducing the offensive workload for the Jaguars. Expect to see plenty of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, which indicates that, given a game total of just 41.5, Lawrence won’t find many opportunities for a fruitful fantasy outing in Week 2.
Running Backs I Love in Week 2
Kyren Williams at Arizona
In Week 1, Kyren Williams achieved a remarkable 91% snap rate, handling 21 of 23 RB touches for the Rams. (Ronnie Rivers and Blake Corum both contributed, but none matched his volume.) It’s hard to imagine Sean McVay not leveraging Williams significantly in this matchup, especially considering his impressive history against the Cardinals. Last season, he averaged 30.1 PPG against them, accumulating over 20 touches and 150 scrimmage yards in both encounters. With the Rams boasting a top 10 implied team total this week, I’m anticipating another standout performance from Williams against an Arizona team that allowed 130 rushing yards last week. He ranks as my RB3 for Week 2.
Isiah Pacheco vs. Cincinnati
Including the playoffs, Isiah Pacheco has scored in each of his last eight games when Jerrick McKinnon is absent. In the season opener, Pacheco registered an 80% snap rate, his highest in 2023, while commanding 85% of Kansas City’s RB touches. Pacheco is clearly the lead back in what appears to be the NFL’s top offense, which earns him a spot on my Love List. Furthermore, he faces a favorable matchup in Week 2. The Chiefs have one of the highest implied team totals of the week, and Pacheco is set to take on a Cincinnati defense that recently surrendered 126 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to Rhamondre Stevenson. This occurred without the Bengals needing to contend with Jacoby Brissett’s passing, making it easier for Kansas City to exploit weaknesses. With Patrick Mahomes orchestrating the offense and the threat of players like Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce, Pacheco will likely encounter many favorable running lanes. He is my RB8.
Josh Jacobs vs. Indianapolis
Malik Willis has started three NFL games previously, averaging just 16.3 passing attempts in those outings. Consequently, the Packers won’t be“`html
He received 86% of the team’s carries for running backs, and his target share of 16.7% was the highest on the team. The Jets recently surrendered 147 rushing yards to Jordan Mason and now must prepare for Tony Pollard in a short week. In Tennessee’s opening game, Pollard recorded 19 touches and a 14.8% target share. In Week 1, JK Dobbins accounted for 52% of the Chargers’ running back carries. While 52% is not an overwhelming share unless we’re discussing presidential elections (hashtag: topical!), it is noteworthy that, per NexGenStats, Dobbins achieved a 50% success rate on his carries, compared to a mere 18% for Gus Edwards. Dobbins is likely to continue gaining more opportunities in this offense, and his 12% target share in Week 1 only heightens optimism regarding his fantasy potential. Expect Dobbins to have another strong performance this week against a Carolina defense that allowed 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns to running backs in their opener. The Raiders are 8.5-point underdogs to the Ravens, which suggests they will likely adopt a pass-heavy strategy in Week 2. This makes Alexander Mattison, who participated in 73% of Vegas’ passing plays in Week 1 and had an 18.8% target share, the more favorable choice among Raiders’ backs. Moreover, Mattison out-snapped Zamir White, 59% to 39%.
Running Backs I Dislike in Week 2
Ezekiel Elliott vs. New Orleans
Admittedly, it felt odd to include New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott on the Hate List last season. However, it feels more fitting to place Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott on this list now. In Week 1, Elliott narrowly out-touched Rico Dowdle (12-9) and played just three more snaps than him. Additionally, Elliott recorded a low target share of 6.5% and was on the field for only 43% of third downs. For Zeke, volume is crucial. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Elliott has had only two games in which he scored 12 or more fantasy points while receiving fewer than 15 touches. Adding to this, the Saints restricted Panthers backs to just 2.9 YPC last week, which leads me to rank Elliott outside my top 30 running backs for Week 2.
Javonte Williams vs. Pittsburgh
In Denver’s season opener, Javonte Williams was only involved in 32% of the Broncos’ rushing attempts. His usage in the passing game was limited to a target share of merely 4.8%, compared to 12% for Jaleel McLaughlin. Now, Williams faces a challenging matchup against a Steelers defense in a game where the Broncos are tied for the second-lowest implied team total of the week. Consequently, Williams ranks at No. 33 for me among running backs in Week 2.
Zamir White at Baltimore
The rationale behind supporting Alexander Mattison essentially serves as the reasoning against Zamir White. The Raiders are expected to be trailing against Baltimore, and White participated in only 24% of the Raiders’ passing plays during Week 1, in stark contrast to Mattison’s 73%. Additionally, the Raiders are among the teams with the lowest implied total for Week 2. Could the Raiders manage“`html
He scored only 3.3 fantasy points, just two points shy of the total combined score of all Bengals WRs in Week 1. This signifies that he continued from where he left off in 2023. Since Week 12 of the previous season, Rice has ranked as WR7 in points per game (18.3). In five out of his last seven games, he has achieved seven or more receptions, while securing a target share of 25% in six of those seven games. Last week, Rice demonstrated that by simply having the ball in his hands, he can make significant plays, averaging 10.4 yards after contact per reception. Thus, you should place Rice in your WR1 slot and allow him to excel. He ranks among my top 10 wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel at Minnesota
During San Francisco’s victory in Week 1 on Monday Night Football, Deebo Samuel accounted for a team-high 31% of the target share, in addition to 21% of the team’s rushing attempts, which included three in the red zone and one at the goal line. With an impressive performance of 18.7 points, Samuel has now scored over 18 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. These statistics indicate that Deebo is a must-start WR1 in fantasy, albeit with one caveat: the 49ers might decide to limit his usage arbitrarily. Early indications suggest that the 2024 49ers could disrupt our fantasy seasons intentionally. Consider this: throughout the fantasy draft season, they kept us in suspense regarding Brandon Aiyuk’s status, leaving us uncertain about his draft position (and that of players like George Pickens). Then, in Week 1—on a Monday night, no less!—they unexpectedly made the consensus 1.1 pick inactive. Do the 49ers harbor animosity toward us? It seems so. Yet, my fondness for Deebo Samuel remains strong this week.
Chris Godwin at Detroit
Chris Godwin kicked off the season by leading the Buccaneers with a target share of 26.7%, successfully catching all eight of his targets. That’s quite impressive. This week, he is up against a Detroit team that allowed the highest number of fantasy points to wide receivers in Week 1, along with permitting the most receptions and the third-most yards to the slot. Given that Godwin excels in the slot like a grandmother on a bus trip to Atlantic City, this matchup for Week 2 looks promising. Consequently, I rank Godwin as my WR15.
Mark Andrews vs. Las Vegas
Isaiah Likely finished Week 1 as the top tight end (TE1), while Mark Andrews was placed at TE27. However, I am not ready to declare Likely as Baltimore’s new TE1 just yet. Andrews faced significant double coverage against the Chiefs and has historically struggled against Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses. Nevertheless, he was on the field for 76% of passing plays in Week 1 and ran more routes than Likely. Expect the Ravens to involve him more significantly this week, especially against a Raiders defense that commenced the season by allowing a 75% catch rate to tight ends and an average of 15.3 yards per reception to the position. Will a standout performance from him in Week 2 be sufficient to alleviate my disappointment from Week 1? Unlikely; I shall forever hold a grudge. Regardless, Andrews is my TE4 for a favorable bounce-back in Week 2.
Others receiving votes: Throughout his early NFL career, De“`html
Well above his previous career high of 69%, he also posted an aDOT of 14.1. Out of his nine targets, four were deep shots. I’m not asserting that Jameson is superior to the Sun God; I’m merely suggesting that the Fantasy Gods have already favored us with Jameson Williams as a WR2 or FLEX option. Despite receiving fewer snaps than Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey still led the team with a target share of 28%, including 40% of the team’s red zone targets. With Puka Nacua sidelined, Demarcus Robinson is the ideal replacement. Even while Nacua was starting the game, Robinson maintained a snap rate of 92%, attributed to the Rams employing 11 personnel on all their snaps in Week 1. Robinson concluded the game with seven targets, tying for second on the team behind my favorite, Cooper Kupp (who had about 1,000). Over Robinson’s last five full games in 2023, he averaged 15.4 PPG.
Continuing with the Robinson segment of this column, let’s discuss Wan’Dale Robinson. He stood out as the Giants’ leader with a 31.6% target share in Week 1 and also secured 75% of their red zone targets. (Yes, the Giants actually reached the red zone; there’s footage as evidence.) This week, Robinson faces a Washington squad that allowed the second-most yards to the slot in Week 1. Puka Nacua’s absence frees up a 29% target share, and some of that will likely shift to Colby Parkinson. In Week 1, Parkinson led all tight ends in routes run and achieved an 88% snap rate. During the same week, Dallas gave up the second most yards to tight ends, and with Foster Moreau currently in concussion protocol, Juwan Johnson is expected to receive increased opportunities. Johnson has also managed to score in four of his last five games.
Pass Catchers I Dislike in Week 2
George Pickens at Denver
Once again, Justin Fields is on the Love List for Week 2, primarily due to his ability to run rather than his capacity to effectively stretch the field with his arm. In Week 1, Fields ranked 27th in aDOT (5.6), which poses a problem for a deep threat like George Pickens. Compounding the issue, Pickens is likely to face Patrick Surtain II’s shadow on Sunday, following Surtain’s success in limiting DK Metcalf to merely 29 yards on three receptions. This matchup has the lowest projected total in Week 2, sitting at 36.5 points. I’ve placed Pickens slightly beneath that figure at WR35.
Christian Kirk vs. Cleveland
Since last season, Cleveland has permitted the fourth-fewest yards per game to slot receivers. In Week 1, the Browns also allowed the fifth-lowest catch rate to slot players. As such, they present a tough matchup even for a prime version of Christian Kirk. However, we barely glimpsed Kirk’s potential in Week 1, as his 70% snap rate placed him third among Jacksonville receivers, behind new addition Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. To make matters worse, no Jaguars receiver garnered more than four targets in Week 1, with Jacksonville marking a pass rate of just 26th for the“`html
In football terminology, a deep pass is defined as one that travels a minimum of 15 yards through the air. Comparing this to space exploration, NASA’s success rate for sending a manned spacecraft into orbit and safely returning it to Earth far surpasses Malik Willis’s ability to complete a pass to a teammate who is 15 yards away. This comparison is important to think about, especially if you’re considering whether to start Christian Watson in Week 2. Despite Jordan Love being under center last week, Watson ranked third on the team with a target share of 15.6%. It seems unlikely that his situation will improve with QB2 Willis, whose career passer rating stands at 48.7, with no touchdown passes to his name. This week, I have Watson ranked at WR48.
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Lessons: Don’t Overreact and Look Ahead to Week 2
Understanding the Importance of Week 1 Performance
Week 1 in fantasy football is often filled with excitement, anticipation, and sometimes, dread. The performances of players can lead to immediate reactions—whether it’s the urge to trade a struggling star or to overvalue a breakout player. Understanding the context of these performances is crucial to making informed decisions for the upcoming week.
Key Takeaways from Week 1
- Performance Variability: Remember, Week 1 is just one game. Player performances can be influenced by numerous factors including match-up difficulties, injuries, and coaching strategies.
- Don’t Overreact: It’s easy to panic after one week. Resist the temptation to overhaul your roster based on limited data.
- Identify Trends: Look for patterns rather than isolated performances. A player’s usage in Week 1 can provide insight into their role moving forward.
- Matchups Matter: Some teams may face tougher defenses in Week 1, skewing performance metrics. Analyze the schedule before making drastic changes.
Case Studies: Players to Monitor
| Player | Week 1 Performance | Outlook for Week 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback A | 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT | Facing a weaker secondary; potential bounce back. |
| Running Back B | 30 yards, 1 TD | Low usage, but facing a defense that struggles against the run. |
| Wide Receiver C | 5 receptions, 120 yards | High target volume indicates stable production. |
| Tight End D | 1 reception, 5 yards | Low involvement; monitor for better matchups. |
Practical Tips for Navigating Week 2
As you prepare for Week 2, consider the following tips to enhance your fantasy football strategy:
- Evaluate Your Roster: Assess each player’s role within your team. If a player wasn’t heavily utilized in Week 1, explore potential trade opportunities or free agent pickups.
- Stay Informed: Follow news and updates regarding player injuries and team strategies. Knowledge is power in fantasy football.
- Adjust Your Expectations: Some players may take time to find their rhythm. Patience is key; don’t be quick to dismiss a player’s potential.
Benefits of Thoughtful Roster Management
- Long-Term Success: By resisting the urge to overreact, you set yourself up for sustained success throughout the season.
- Informed Decisions: A deeper understanding of your players’ situations leads to better lineup decisions and trades.
- Reduced Stress: Maintaining a calm approach can help reduce the emotional toll that fantasy football can sometimes take.
Looking Ahead: Week 2 Matchup Analysis
Analyzing matchups is critical for setting your lineups. Below are some key matchups to consider for Week 2:
Quarterback Matchups
- QB1 vs. Defense X: QB1 had a rough start but faces a defense that allowed the most passing yards in Week 1.
- QB2 vs. Defense Y: QB2 showed promise with a high completion rate; however, Defense Y is known for their strong pass rush.
Running Back Matchups
- RB1 vs. Defense Z: RB1 had a slow start but may see increased volume against a defense with a weak run game.
- RB2 vs. Defense A: RB2 was underutilized, but a favorable matchup could lead to increased touches.
First-Hand Experience: The Importance of Patience
As a seasoned fantasy football player, I’ve often witnessed the effects of week-to-week overreactions. In one of my leagues, I panicked after one of my star receivers underperformed in Week 1. I considered trading him, but after evaluating the matchup and his target share, I decided to hold onto him. In Week 2, he bounced back with a stellar performance, reinforcing the value of patience.
Final Thoughts on Week 1 and Beyond
Don’t let the highs and lows of Week 1 dictate your fantasy football strategy. Remain analytical, keep an eye on matchups, and trust your research. The season is long, and your approach can significantly impact your success.
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