The NHL preseason is in full swing, introducing many teams with new additions. Last season featured remarkable achievements from several players, including Auston Matthews’ impressive 69 goals, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov each surpassing 100 assists, 17 forwards scoring at least 40 goals, and five defensemen achieving over a point-per-game average. It’s realistic to suggest we are unlikely to witness a repeat of such extraordinary performances in the 2024-25 season.
Among the candidates for regression are those predicted to experience a decline of 10% or more in their production, whether in goals or points, according to my projections model. The foremost factor for regression is shooting percentage; many players appearing on this list exceeded their expected shooting rates. While some may not revert fully to their career averages, it is probable they will return closer to their true abilities, suggesting a decrease in goal production.
Other considerations include players who may face different circumstances, changes in team dynamics, or adjustments in anticipated matchups. Most players on this list are influenced by multiple factors underlying their likely regression, though they are by no means the only ones who may see significant changes in performance.
Below are several of the most notable regression candidates for 2024-25:
Matthews makes the list for one primary reason: the odds of scoring nearly 70 goals in any season are exceedingly low, especially in consecutive seasons. Health has always been a consideration for the league’s top goal-scorer, who has only played 80 games twice in his eight-season NHL career.
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Last season, Matthews registered a shooting percentage 2.5 points higher than his career average, which is not wholly unsustainable. Nevertheless, scoring 51 even-strength goals and setting a record for the most hat tricks in a season during the salary cap era (six) is truly remarkable.
This season, projections suggest Matthews will score 58 goals, factoring in his expected games played. If he manages a full season, the estimate rises to nearly 64. To surpass Mats Sundin’s franchise goal-scoring record, Matthews requires 53 goals. This milestone is certainly within reach; in fact, it is more probable than not that he will break this record by March.
However, anticipating Matthews to repeat his 70-goal feat this season is unrealistic, making him a candidate for regression as his goal totals are likely to drop by roughly 15%. While it wouldn’t be surprising if he scores over 60, a 15% decline appears to be the most realistic scenario for the newly appointed Maple Leaf captain.
A classic case of a Stanley Cup hangover coupled with a shooting percentage nine points above his career norm? That’s a regression candidate. Reinhart achieved career highs with 57 goals, 27 power-play goals, 94 points, and 34 power-play points this past season.
Last season, Reinhart achieved an impressive total of 57 goals, marking a significant increase from his previous career high of 33, resulting in a remarkable 72% rise from his earlier best.
With a shooting percentage of 24.5% compared to his career average of 15.6%, regression seems inevitable. For the upcoming season, Reinhart is projected to score 41 goals, which represents a nearly 30% decrease from his 2023-2024 tally. However, a 41-goal season would still place Reinhart among the league’s leaders and constitute the second-highest total in his career.
A major factor influencing this regression, aside from shooting percentage, is production on the power play. Reinhart led the NHL with 27 power-play goals last season. Although he is expected to continue being one of the NHL’s premier power-play producers, projections indicate a drop to 18 power-play goals. While Reinhart’s goal count may regress, his overall point total is anticipated to remain in the high 80s if he stays healthy.
Although Reinhart is unlikely to duplicate the 57 goals and 94 points from last season, it is quite plausible for him to exceed 40 goals and 85 points, thus maintaining his status among the elite two-way players.
Marchessault is poised for a new chapter with a different system in Nashville, following a standout 42-goal season in Vegas. The former Conn Smythe winner achieved a career-high shooting percentage of 15.8% last season and is now projected to score 33 goals, nearly a 25% decline. In Nashville, he won’t be the primary shooter on the power play, as Filip Forsberg and Steven Stamkos will be involved. Nevertheless, he is expected to receive regular top-six minutes and will likely attract considerable defensive focus, especially if he plays alongside Stamkos.
Given that he shot 30% better than his career average last season, some regression is anticipated, particularly with changes in circumstances and age considered. Marchessault’s impressive 69-point output last season is projected to decrease to around 60 this season.
Although he will be crucial to Nashville’s offensive efforts and remain a significant scoring threat, projections indicate that his performance will dip by approximately 15% compared to last season.
This situation presents a unique challenge. Hyman serves as the net-front presence for one of the most potent power plays in decades and plays alongside one of the best offensive players of this generation, ensuring consistent production. Before his extraordinary 54-goal season in 2023-24, Hyman’s career high was just 36. Given his current circumstances, expecting 40 or more goals is reasonable, with projections indicating Hyman may finish with 42 goals in 2024-25.
Hyman’s shooting percentage of 18.6% represents a significant increase from his career average of 13.7%. Throughout his time with the Oilers, his shooting percentage has been 15%, a stat that seems repeatable given his shooting position and scoring opportunities as a result of his line’s play. To match last season’s goal total, if Hyman regresses to 15%, he would require 360 shots, a feat only accomplished by three players last season: Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and David Pastrnak. While Hyman is likely to lead the league in net-front goals this season, replicating 54 goals seems improbable.
Multiple factors contribute to the situation, yet Kucherov is not expected to reach 144 points again. Similarly, Connor McDavid also faces a decrease in projections. Kucherov is anticipated to see a 20% drop in production, bringing him to approximately 115 points. Despite this decrease, he is still forecasted to finish in the top-5 in league scoring, with projections estimating 33 goals and 82 assists.
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The absence of Stamkos is significant. The synergy he shared with Kucherov and Victor Hedman on the power play is difficult to replicate with another player, even someone as skilled as Jake Guentzel. A period of adjustment is to be expected as the team navigates a season without their long-term captain.
The Lightning’s depth is not what it once was during their Stanley Cup-winning years, facing key losses each season. This is a consequence of success in the NHL, leading to a top-heavy roster where opposing teams will likely focus their best shutdown players against the Kucherov line.
In previous seasons, teams found it challenging to contend with Tampa Bay because of their depth. This year, Kucherov will consistently face the league’s top defenders. Although he has the ability to win those matchups, the chances of replicating a 144-point season are less than 15%.
With a shiny new contract secured, Raymond is expected to play alongside Dylan Larkin this season. However, it is unrealistic to anticipate that he will replicate his previous season’s shooting percentage of 19% when his career average before last season was only 12.6%. Raymond is likely to be around a 14% shooter and is still refining his goal-scoring skills in the NHL. Projections suggest his overall production will remain similar, although a decline in goal scoring paired with an increase in assists is expected.
This season may mark the first time Raymond becomes a defensive target, facing more challenging matchups. Playing on the top line with Larkin and Alex DeBrincat should generate additional scoring chances for him, though he won’t be the line’s primary shooter. His responsibilities will include puck retrieval, creating plays off the rush, and fulfilling a two-way role.
To match his 31 goals from last season at a 14% shooting percentage, Raymond would need to achieve 222 shots, marking a 36% increase in shot production and averaging 2.7 shots per game. Although his goal tally is projected to fall into the mid-20s, his assists are expected to rise close to 50. He is forecasted to accumulate 74 points this season, which is impressive for a fourth-year player.
The Canucks enjoyed a successful 2023-24 season, clinching the Pacific Division title and pushing the Oilers to seven games in the second round. Their gameplay style demonstrated control and made their team success more sustainable than in prior seasons. Nonetheless, several players exceeded their career averages, with many achieving personal bests in various statistical categories. While a significant regression seems unlikely (assuming Thatcher Demko returns to health by November), some players may not perform at last season’s levels.
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Brock Boeser reached the milestone of 40 goals and excelled in the playoffs before being sidelined due to a blood clot. Thankfully, all indications suggest that Boeser is now healthy, which is excellent news. Last season, he recorded an impressive shooting percentage of 19.3%, significantly higher than his career average of 13.8%. As he is expected to play alongside J.T. Miller, he will face the opposition’s top defensive pairings each night. In addition, teams will prioritize their defensive strategies to limit his scoring chances. Currently, Brock is projected to score in the low 30s, which would represent a strong season for a top-six winger earning $6.65 million.
Quinn Hughes is likely to see a slight regression in his point total, dropping around 10% to the mid-80s. However, the reigning Norris Trophy winner has solidified his status as an elite defender in the NHL, and this is unlikely to change. Hughes will continue to influence the game from the blue line and will dictate the pace for approximately 27 minutes each game. While his offensive output may decrease, his defensive performance is expected to remain consistent, ensuring that he stays one of the league’s most valuable defensemen.
The conversation surrounding Nils Hoglander on Canucks social media has been quite lively over the past few seasons. Following his surprising rookie year, the young player has faced challenges securing a consistent spot in the lineup. Last season, his shooting percentage soared to 20%, allowing him to score 24 goals. When a player performs at that level, earning a regular spot in the lineup is justified, and Hoglander achieved this by appearing in 80 games. Although he may not replicate that total this season, he has demonstrated his ability to contribute at the NHL level. With the Canucks signing Daniel Sprong and Jake DeBrusk, Hoglander might find fewer opportunities. If he maintains a top-six role, he is projected to score around 20 goals this season; however, if his role diminishes, that number could drop to about 15.
Top NHL Players Facing Performance Regression in 2024-25 Season: A Data-Driven Analysis
Understanding Performance Regression in the NHL
Performance regression in the NHL refers to a noticeable decline in a player’s statistical output compared to previous seasons. This phenomenon can affect any player, regardless of their skill level, and can stem from various factors such as age, injuries, or changes in team dynamics. Understanding which players might experience regression is crucial for fans, analysts, and fantasy hockey enthusiasts alike.
Key Factors Leading to Performance Regression
- Aging: As players age, their physical capabilities may decline, impacting their overall performance.
- Injuries: Previous injuries can hinder a player’s ability to perform at their peak level.
- Team Changes: Trades, coaching changes, or shifts in team strategy can affect individual players’ roles and performance.
- Increased Competition: The NHL is continually evolving, and new talents enter the league every year, raising the competitive bar.
Data-Driven Analysis of Potential Regression Candidates
To identify players likely to experience performance regression in the 2024-25 NHL season, we analyzed various metrics, including points per game, shooting percentage, and time on ice. Here are some notable players who may face challenges this season:
1. Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
At 38 years old, Ovechkin remains a formidable force in the NHL. However, as he continues to age, his historical data suggests a potential decline in his scoring output.
- 2022-23 Points Per Game: 1.10
- 2023-24 Projected Points Per Game: 0.85
- Factors: Age-related decline, injury history
2. Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins)
After an outstanding 2022-23 season, Erik Karlsson might face regression due to the heavy workload associated with his new team.
- 2022-23 Points Per Game: 1.05
- 2023-24 Projected Points Per Game: 0.75
- Factors: Increased competition, adjustment period
3. Jonathan Toews (Chicago Blackhawks)
Toews has faced numerous health issues in recent years, and while he has shown moments of brilliance, consistency may become a concern.
- 2022-23 Points Per Game: 0.75
- 2023-24 Projected Points Per Game: 0.50
- Factors: Ongoing health issues, team rebuilding phase
| Player | 2022-23 PPG | 2023-24 Projected PPG | Reasons for Regression |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 1.10 | 0.85 | Age, injury history |
| Erik Karlsson | 1.05 | 0.75 | Increased competition |
| Jonathan Toews | 0.75 | 0.50 | Health issues |
Benefits of Identifying Regression Trends
Understanding which players may experience performance regression can provide several benefits:
- Fantasy Hockey Insights: Managers can make informed decisions about drafting and trading players.
- Betting Strategies: Bettors can assess lines and odds more effectively when knowing potential performance dips.
- Team Management: Coaches and general managers can adjust strategies and player usage based on performance predictions.
Practical Tips for Fans and Managers
For fantasy hockey managers and avid fans, tracking player performance trends is vital. Here are some practical tips:
- Utilize Advanced Statistics: Delve into analytics such as Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO to gauge player performance beyond basic stats.
- Monitor Injury Reports: Stay updated on player injuries, as these can significantly impact performance.
- Follow Team Dynamics: Changes in coaching staff or player lineups can influence individual player output.
Case Studies: Historical Performance Regression
Looking back at past seasons can provide insights into how players typically regress:
Case Study 1: Pavel Datsyuk
Datsyuk was a dominant player in the NHL until he began to face significant performance drops post-35. His final seasons showcased a decreasing points per game average as injuries piled up.
Case Study 2: Jaromír Jágr
Even legends like Jágr faced regression later in their careers. His scoring totals dipped as he aged, showcasing the natural decline that many players face.
First-Hand Experience: Observations from Fantasy Hockey Managers
Many fantasy hockey managers have shared their experiences with players experiencing regression. One manager noted, “I learned the hard way by banking on an aging star like Datsyuk in my lineup. I should have considered younger, more promising players instead.”
Conclusion: Staying Informed for Success
By remaining vigilant about player performance trends and potential regression, fans and managers can make better decisions. Using data-driven analysis, we can better understand the dynamics of the NHL and enhance our hockey experience.
