The NHL appears to be on the verge of further expansion. Possibly.
This rumor first emerged on the opening day of training camp, as Kevin Weekes indicated, followed by Andy Strickland’s comments about NHL owners convening to discuss the approval for expansion. It seems we may be heading towards an era of 34-36 teams.
While discussions regarding expansion will certainly abound, a crucial concern will be its impact on the quality of gameplay. A primary advantage that typically accompanies expansion is the potential for increased offensive play.
The NHL currently enjoys a robust offensive environment, with an average of 6.22 goals per game recorded last season. Stars in the league are excelling like never before, notching over 60 goals, 100 assists, and surpassing 140 points. These impressive statistics are hard to believe for those who remember the low-scoring days of the dead-puck era or the aftermath of the salary cap’s introduction, yet they enhance the excitement of the league.
Expansion has played a role in this development. When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the league in 2017-18, the average goals per game rose from 5.54 to 5.94. Similarly, the introduction of the Seattle Kraken in 2021-22 saw an increase from 5.88 to 6.28 goals per game. Each instance resulted in a 0.4 goals-per-game boost.
However, this increase is not solely attributable to expansion. Prior to the 2017-18 season, the NHL made significant reductions to goalie equipment size and has since implemented various minor adjustments. Nevertheless, it is notable that scoring rates experienced marked growth during those seasons, which aligns with historical trends in the league.
Between the Original Six era and the expansion phase, where the league increased to 12 teams, offensive output remained relatively stable. Yet, with every following expansion—from 14 to 16 to 18 teams—scoring averaged an increase of just over 0.4 goals per game. Although the first year following the WHA merger did not reflect a significant boost, the escalation from about 7 goals per game in the late ’70s to over 7.5 during the early ’80s is significant. Furthermore, increasing from 21 to 24 teams in the early ’90s temporarily raised the average by 0.34 goals per game, while moving from 26 to 30 teams provided a brief reprieve from the dead-puck era with a 0.24 goals per game increase.
One exception to this trend is the 1993-94 season, during which the addition of two teams coincided with a 0.78 goals-per-game decline. This drop marked the onset of the dead-puck era, likely due to tactical shifts. Despite this downturn, the average annual increase in goals per game during expansion years is about 0.16 goals, translating to around 0.12 goals per game when assessed on a per-team basis.
This phenomenon can be attributed to talent dilution. The introduction of new teams necessitates the creation of 20 additional roster spots, typically filled by replacement-level players, thereby shifting the league’s talent baseline. As a result, star players can stand out even more, while the average player’s effectiveness declines slightly, and new, less skilled players enter the mix. This subtle shift tends to correlate with overall scoring trends.
To quantify this, I analyzed league-wide goals per game against the average per-game value (Net Rating) of every above-average player in any given season. This combined perspective offers insight into the current rate of talent dilution and overall distribution. A higher average indicates a broader spread of talent. For clarity, I will refer to this measure as “talent spread.”
As expected, significant increases in talent spread were observed in both 2017-18 and 2021-22. Additionally, a strong relationship has been evident in each season since 2007-08. Increased goal scoring usually indicates heightened player value, predominantly emanating from the league’s upper echelon. While this conclusion may seem obvious, it proves useful for gauging the impact that potential future expansions—from 34 to 36 teams—could have on overall scoring.
Based on the correlation between scoring and talent spread, we can expect an approximate increase of 0.43 goals per game for every one-goal rise in talent spread. With each pair of teams added to the league, there is a corresponding 20-player shift in the league’s average talent baseline. Applying this to last season’s totals suggests a 0.4 shift in talent spread for a 34-team league and a 0.65 shift for 36 teams.
This indicates that a league of 34 teams might experience an increase to 6.48 goals per game, while 36 teams could see this figure rise to 6.58 goals per game. This represents a positive escalation, bringing the league closer to the ideal scoring range of between 6.5 and 7, which the league maintained from 1990 to 1994. For a team count of 36, the increase results in an additional 0.09 goals per game for each added team—consistent with historical per-team averages following past expansions. It’s fortuitous when the numbers align so well.
While these calculations are simplistic, there’s potential for even larger effects from expansion—similar to the impacts seen with the Golden Knights and Kraken. Conversely, it is also possible that expansion may not influence scoring at all. Throughout hockey history, scoring increases have often precipitated tactical adjustments aimed at curtailing these gains—a trend that may continue with a shift to 36 teams.
Nevertheless, this remains a fascinating thought experiment, especially given the current surge in superstar scoring rates.
Nikita Kucherov’s 144 points last season? That number could have approached 152 with a rise to 6.6 goals per game. Connor McDavid’s 153 points the previous year would have fallen just shy of 160.
Auston Matthews’ 69 goals from last season could have reached closer to 73, while McDavid’s 100 assists would have likely climbed to 106 assists, maintaining a 114-assist pace.
While the statistics these players have already achieved are impressive, they could be even more remarkable with increased scoring—something that past expansions have generally promoted. Star players generating impressive numbers brings excitement and attracts fans to games. Expansion could thus help elevate the league’s current golden era to unprecedented heights.
Nonetheless, there are reasonable arguments suggesting that expansion may not benefit the league’s overall health. There are also numerous alternative methods to boost scoring. However, for a league seeking to penetrate more American markets and secure additional revenue through substantial expansion fees, the anticipated increase in scoring represents a favorable side effect.
Want more goals? Adding more teams may just provide the solution.
(Photo of Auston Matthews scoring a goal against Ilya Sorokin: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Scoring on the Rise: How NHL Expansion Could Ignite Goal-Scoring Frenzy
Understanding NHL Expansion
The National Hockey League (NHL) has seen a significant increase in teams over the past few decades. The addition of new franchises not only shifts the dynamics of the league but also impacts the overall style of play.
### What is NHL Expansion?
NHL expansion refers to the process through which new teams are added to the league. This can involve relocating an existing franchise or introducing a completely new team. Recent expansions, such as the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017 and the Seattle Kraken in 2021, have revitalized interest in hockey across different regions.
### Key Factors Driving Expansion
– **Market Growth**: The NHL is targeting cities with strong sports markets.
– **Increased Revenue**: New franchises bring in substantial franchise fees and boost local economies.
– **Fan Engagement**: Expansion teams create buzz and attract new fans.
Impact on Goal Scoring
With the introduction of new teams, we often see a shift in play style, roster composition, and ultimately, scoring dynamics. Here are several ways NHL expansion could ignite a goal-scoring frenzy.
### 1. Talent Redistribution
The expansion draft allows new teams to select players from existing rosters, which can lead to the redistribution of talented goal scorers.
#### Example of Talent Redistribution:
| Team | Notable Players Lost |
|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | Marc-Andre Fleury, James Neal |
| Seattle Kraken | Jordan Eberle, Vitek Vanecek |
### 2. Increased Competition
As new teams enter the league, the competition level rises. This heightened competition often leads to more aggressive offensive strategies, resulting in more goals.
### 3. Younger Rosters
Expansion teams often prioritize younger players to build for the future. These players typically have high offensive potential, leading to an uptick in scoring.
### 4. Shifted Defensive Strategies
With the influx of new teams, defensive strategies may take time to adjust. This transitional period can lead to more scoring opportunities, as players and coaches work to find their footing.
Benefits of Higher Goal Scoring
Increased goal scoring can have a multitude of benefits for the NHL and its fanbase, including:
– **Entertainment Value**: Fans enjoy high-scoring games filled with excitement and action.
– **Increased Fan Engagement**: More goals can lead to more highlights, boosting social media engagement and viewership.
– **Revenue Growth**: Higher scoring leads to thrilling games that can attract more spectators and increase merchandise sales.
Practical Tips for Fans and Players
Whether you’re a player aiming to improve your scoring or a fan looking to enhance your viewing experience, here are some practical tips:
### For Players
– **Focus on Skills Development**: Improve your shooting, passing, and skating skills during practice.
– **Study Opposing Goalies**: Analyze their tendencies to find scoring opportunities.
– **Increase Your Hockey IQ**: Understand positioning and read the game better to anticipate play.
### For Fans
– **Watch Games Live**: Experience the energy of high-scoring games in person.
– **Engage on Social Media**: Share highlights and analysis, fostering discussions about the game.
– **Join a Fantasy League**: Engage with player statistics and follow your favorite scorers closely.
Case Studies: Teams That Thrived After Expansion
To illustrate the potential impact of expansion on goal scoring, let’s explore two teams that have made significant strides in this area.
### Vegas Golden Knights
Upon entering the NHL in 2017, the Golden Knights had an exceptional inaugural season, reaching the Stanley Cup Finals while ranking among the top teams in scoring.
– **Key Players**: Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson emerged as prolific scorers.
– **Offensive Strategy**: Their fast-paced, aggressive play style contributed to their goal-scoring success.
### Seattle Kraken
In their first season (2021-2022), the Kraken faced challenges but showed potential for growth, particularly in scoring.
– **Emerging Stars**: Jared McCann became a key player, showing great offensive skill.
– **Future Outlook**: With a strong draft and player development plan, the Kraken could become a scoring powerhouse.
First-Hand Experience: A Fan’s Perspective
As a dedicated NHL fan, witnessing the impact of expansion firsthand has been exhilarating. The introduction of the Golden Knights brought a fresh competitive spirit to the league. Their inaugural season not only redefined playoff expectations but also sparked discussions around scoring strategies.
Fans often express that watching games with high scoring is thrilling. The buzz in the arena, the energy from the crowd, and the moments of sheer joy when the puck hits the back of the net create unforgettable experiences.
### Engaging with the Game
Attending games and participating in fantasy leagues allows fans to connect deeply with the league. Following the rise of scoring can lead to conversations about player performance and team dynamics, enriching the overall experience.
Conclusion: The Future of Scoring in the NHL
The ongoing NHL expansion strategy is set to shape the league significantly. With a focus on scoring, new teams will not only increase competition but also bring fresh talent and excitement to the game. As fans, players, and analysts alike, embracing this evolution can lead to a thrilling future for hockey.
