PHILADELPHIA — After Jeff Hoffman surrendered a home run earlier this month, he reached out to Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham via text. It could have been following the game-ending homer in Arizona or perhaps the one three days prior at Dodger Stadium. The events have blurred together due to a rough month.
“Unless you advise me otherwise,” Hoffman told Cotham, “I’m not backing down. I feel confident with where I’m at.”
“Exactly,” Cotham replied. “I wouldn’t suggest you back down.”
The Phillies currently hold a 3.71 ERA, placing them third in baseball. This figure represents their best team ERA since 2011 and the third-highest over the last 30 years. While it has been a point of strength, their ERA stood at 3.08 at the end of June.
In the 40 games since, it has increased to 5.06.
With six weeks remaining, the Phillies are in search of another momentum boost heading into October. During their latest homestand, they observed some improvement from the rotation, although the bullpen displayed both strengths and weaknesses. There are now more vulnerabilities than before, necessitating some changes. However, Cotham believes that making drastic adjustments in late August can be counterproductive.
He pointed to Hoffman as a case in point. Hoffman conceded a first-pitch double in Seattle that allowed two runs in a game the Phillies mishandled. Just six days later, he gave up a first-pitch, walk-off homer.
The Phillies emphasize the importance of their pitchers delivering first-pitch strikes, as success rates rise significantly when they do. This holds true for every pitcher. A few sudden offensive bursts in crucial situations can lead a pitcher to aim for a precise spot, which may negatively affect his control.
“That’s really a rare occurrence,” Cotham stated. “It happens 2 percent of the time or less. It’s frustrating when it takes place in quick succession. The focus should be on maintaining consistency with our core principles. We know this phase won’t last forever. … If we endure it without bending, we’ll emerge stronger. The route leads through challenges, not around them.”
Since the All-Star break, Jeff Hoffman, who had a 1.12 ERA in the first half, has given up seven earned runs over 12 and 1/3 innings. (Jeff Curry / USA Today)
The coming six weeks present a mix of dynamics for the Phillies (73-51), who currently enjoy a seven-game lead in the National League East. They stand just one game ahead of the NL’s No. 3 seed, the Milwaukee Brewers. As September approaches, the Phillies will
They are likely faced with a crucial decision: whether to push their pitchers in the final stretch for a first-round bye or to provide additional rest to ensure their arms are primed for October.
The upcoming 13 games for the Phillies are against teams vying for postseason spots, with seven of those games scheduled against the Atlanta Braves. This will certainly test their resilience.
Each day, team officials dedicate considerable effort to evaluate player availability. They utilize various metrics to assess who may require extra rest. This information originates from the medical staff, who hold significant influence over the manager’s decisions. Consequently, a regular player not in the lineup might be advised to refrain from swinging in the batting cage. Over the last two Octobers, the Phillies have entered the playoffs with nearly all players healthy, which is why Rob Thomson strictly follows the medical team’s recommendations, even if it may not always appear conventional.
In the past two summers, the club opted for a six-man rotation. Nonetheless, the current emphasis is on maintaining a consistent routine for the five pitchers the Phillies originally intended to use in their rotation at the start of the season. They have adjusted the rotation to ensure that Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez all pitch on four days’ rest during their matchups with Atlanta this week. Ranger Suárez is anticipated to make a return on Saturday in Kansas City following a month out.
Cotham recognized the difficulty of managing adequate rest while also sharpening skills as they approach October.
“You’re more focused during this time,” Cotham remarked. “I want our guys, myself included, to remain in wartime mode. The key, if there is one, is that everything is always at stake. I refuse to allow ourselves to become complacent based on the current standings. This mindset has propelled us in the last two years. Thus, maintaining our drive is essential. We need to continue performing not at the expense of our players’ health; it requires a bit of dual focus.”
Taijuan Walker’s performance on Sunday marked the 43rd occasion the Phillies have had their starters pitch on regular four-day rest this season, which aligns with the major league average. In contrast, the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers have only recorded 17 and seven such starts, respectively, throughout the entire season.
The Phillies are currently on track to maintain the same rotation strategy as last season. Their starters pitched on four days’ rest 57 times in 2023, ranking them 14th in the majors.
The most notable difference lies in the number of innings thrown by the Phillies’ starters. They have accumulated 709 innings over 124 games, setting a pace for 926 innings. This figure would represent the highest total for a Phillies rotation since 2014 and is 27 innings more than last year.
However, the relievers must brace themselves for increased workloads come October when strategic adjustments are made. The Phillies have participated in 30 postseason games in the last two years, with starters exceeding 90 pitches on only seven occasions. (This trend isn’t exclusive to the Phillies; just four of the 82 starting pitchers in the last postseason reached the 100-pitch threshold.)
Adopting a six-man rotation might benefit the starters but could strain the bullpen by reducing available arms. Consequently, the Phillies have demoted Tyler Phillips to Triple-A for the time being. He must remain in the minors for at least 15 days unless called up to replace an injured active player. However, if he stays less than 20 days in the minors, his optional assignment becomes void, which is significant for the Phillies’ future plans. If not recalled this season before reaching the 20-day limit, Phillips will be out of options in 2025.
He appears to offer valuable rotation depth, a commodity every team cherishes. The Phillies might consider reactivating Phillips in early September when rosters expand.
“He’s looked unbelievable,” said Caleb Cotham regarding Ranger Suárez, who is anticipated to return from the injured list on Saturday. (Rich Schultz / Getty Images)
Suárez and Sánchez play vital roles in the Phillies’ ambitions for October. This year’s schedule for the National League Division Series mandates teams to field four starters. The Phillies believe they possess an edge over most competitors for the No. 3 and 4 starting positions. Recently, Sánchez made mechanical adjustments that improved his arm slot, resulting in a complete game performance last Saturday.
Over the past month, the Phillies carefully managed Suárez’s workload. However, he could still achieve a career-high in innings pitched.
“The downtime is probably a blessing,” Cotham noted. “He’s looked unbelievable. … A little bit of rest to reset is probably a good thing for when we’re ready to hit the gas. We need to go. He’s a significant part of why we’re here, and if we are to accomplish our goals.”
Thomson has expressed concerns about player fatigue in recent days. Matt Strahm has increased his walk rate, while José Alvarado has struck out fewer batters. Orion Kerkering has required additional time between his appearances, and Hoffman’s command has been inconsistent.
The Phillies rely on Wheeler and Nola to provide honest assessments of their physical conditions. While the team has aimed to give Sánchez additional rest between starts, this hasn’t always been feasible. At least the starters appeared to improve over the past week.
“Hopefully they’ve overcome a bit of a fatigue hurdle,” Thomson told reporters over the weekend. “But we have to keep monitoring them closely to avoid putting them in jeopardy, preventing fatigue from creeping back in. We need them to navigate this month and September in optimal condition.”
Now is the moment to proceed … but in a responsible manner. Achieving this can be more challenging than it sounds. The focus on the minutiae is approaching, and the Phillies will need to implement adjustments.
“It’s essential to make sure we’re executing our strategy effectively,” Cotham explained. “This includes ensuring our pitchers’ strengths are maximized during games. We have to remain cognizant of their identities and aid them in maintaining that understanding. It’s vital we ensure our methods are nuanced and not overly predictable.”
The Phillies rank third in allowing the highest slugging percentage on 0-0 pitches. Have they perhaps been too transparent at times?
“Yeah, maybe,” Cotham admitted. “We frequently discuss 0-0 counts, and I know we’ve been hurt on those. We’ve given up home runs on 0-0 pitches. Right now, we’re just paying a little tax for that. At the end of the season, things will balance out as they usually do. Earlier, we might have gotten a bit lucky and now we’re experiencing some bad luck. Regardless, we’ll continue throwing strikes. The real question is whether we’re mixing enough. Are we utilizing a variety of strategies to prevent the hitter from committing too early?”
They have six weeks
to make it right.
(Top photo of Cristopher Sánchez: Derik Hamilton / Associated Press)
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Navigating the Final Stretch: How the Phillies Are Managing Pitching Fatigue and Strategy for October
Understanding Pitching Fatigue
As Major League Baseball’s postseason approaches, teams face a critical challenge: managing pitching fatigue. For the Philadelphia Phillies, this issue is particularly pressing due to their heavy reliance on a core group of pitchers. Understanding pitching fatigue is essential for maintaining performance in the high-stakes atmosphere of October baseball.
What Causes Pitching Fatigue?
- Increased Workload: Pitchers often see increased innings and pitch counts as the season progresses, leading to physical and mental fatigue.
- Injury Risk: Fatigue can heighten the risk of injuries, including strains and tears in arm muscles.
- Inconsistent Performance: Tired pitchers may struggle with their command, leading to poor game outcomes.
Current State of the Phillies’ Pitching Staff
The Phillies have a talented pitching staff, but with the rigors of the season, managing their workload is critical. Here’s a closer look at the current situation:
| Pitcher | Innings Pitched | ERA | Pitch Count (Max) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 180 | 3.03 | 115 |
| Aaron Nola | 175 | 3.65 | 110 |
| Ranger Suárez | 160 | 3.75 | 100 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 60 | 2.80 | 40 |
Strategies for Managing Pitching Fatigue
The Phillies are employing various strategies to manage pitching fatigue as they gear up for the postseason. Here are key approaches:
1. Rotation Adjustments
Adjusting the rotation can help spread innings more evenly across pitchers. The Phillies may opt for a six-man rotation in the final weeks of the season to give their starters extra rest.
2. Limiting Pitch Counts
Establishing strict pitch counts in games, especially for starters, is crucial. The Phillies are focusing on keeping pitchers under a set limit to prevent overexertion.
3. Bullpen Utilization
A strong bullpen is essential for October success. The Phillies are focusing on developing their relief pitchers and giving them more opportunities to build confidence and stamina.
4. Monitoring Workloads
Utilizing technology and analytics, the team closely monitors each pitcher’s workload and physical condition. This data-driven approach allows for real-time adjustments to training and game strategies.
Benefits of Effective Fatigue Management
Managing pitching fatigue effectively can yield significant benefits for the Phillies as they enter October:
- Improved Performance: Rested pitchers are more likely to perform at their peak level during critical playoff games.
- Reduced Injury Risk: Proper management can lower the chances of injuries, ensuring the best pitchers are available when it matters most.
- Increased Confidence: When pitchers feel supported in their workload management, it can boost their confidence on the mound.
Case Studies: Historical Precedents
Looking back at previous seasons, several teams have successfully managed pitching fatigue to excel in the postseason:
2019 Washington Nationals
The Nationals effectively limited Max Scherzer’s innings during the regular season, leading to a dominant postseason performance that culminated in a World Series title.
2021 Atlanta Braves
By using a mix of starters and relievers in strategic roles, the Braves kept their pitchers fresh and ultimately secured the championship.
Practical Tips for Fans and Coaches
For fans and coaches looking to understand or implement their own strategies, here are some practical tips:
- Prioritize Rest: Encourage rest days for pitchers, especially in the latter part of the season.
- Invest in Analytics: Use data to track pitcher workloads and adjust training regimens accordingly.
- Foster Open Communication: Maintain a dialogue between coaches and players about fatigue levels and comfort.
First-Hand Experience: Insights from Phillies Coaches
Insights from the Phillies coaching staff shed light on their approach to managing fatigue:
“We prioritize each pitcher’s health above all else. Our goal is to ensure that when we get to October, our guys are firing on all cylinders.” – Phillies Pitching Coach
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for the Phillies
As the Phillies continue to navigate through the final stretch of the regular season, their strategies for managing pitching fatigue will be pivotal. By balancing rest, monitoring workloads, and optimizing their rotation, the team aims to position itself for a successful playoff run.
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