Today, we have a guest post from one of the most passionate Golden Knights fans in Vegas and arguably the top poker player in the fanbase (although, in the one tournament we competed in together, I managed to outlast him. It was for charity, and I bought back in six times, but that detail can remain undisclosed).
Daniel Negreanu shares his insights on what might have been during the NHL Draft over the first five seasons of the Vegas Golden Knights. With the advantage of hindsight, Daniel assesses VGK’s selections and compares them to the ideal choices available at that time, revealing not only what VGK might have overlooked but also highlighting how impressively Dallas has excelled in their drafting.
First and foremost, this analysis does not serve as a critique of the front office; the NHL entry draft is inherently unpredictable. It’s common to see players selected in the second and third rounds rise from obscurity to become NHL stars.
That said, it is always an intriguing exercise to speculate on what could have occurred if a team were formed with the absolute best available players at the time of each pick. Goalies are particularly difficult to evaluate, often leading to them being picked lower; thus, hindsight can unfairly impact perceptions of those selections. Additionally, we are not considering team needs, as franchises frequently opt for players to address specific positions rather than piling up talent in an already-filled role, a situation that VGK has not encountered during its brief history.
2017
(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
VGK: #6 Cody Glass
Ideal Pick: #8 Casey Middelstadt
Cody Glass is working to find his footing in Pittsburgh, likely in a third-line capacity, whereas Middlestadt has delivered back-to-back seasons nearing 60 points and is thriving in Colorado.
VGK: #13 Nick Suzuki
Ideal Pick: #20 Robert Thomas
This selection is not a failure; Suzuki plays a significant role in the Canadiens’ rebuild and has maintained an impressive streak, missing no games over the past three seasons while increasing his point totals each year, finishing with 77 last season. Robert Thomas has slightly edged him offensively, registering 86 points last year, surpassing his previous career-high of 77.
VGK: #15 Erik Brannstrom
Ideal Pick: #26 Jake Oettinger
Brannstrom, still only 24, is not yet deemed a lost cause. As a smaller player, his breakout year—typically occurring around the 400-game mark—remains a couple of seasons away. However, thus far, he has struggled to play a significant role. He has transitioned to Colorado but will need injuries to others in order to receive the kind of ice time necessary for improvement. In contrast, Oettinger has defied the odds as a young goalie, achieving an impressive career GAA of 2.50 and a .913 SV% since his rookie season.
VGK: #34 Nick Hague
Ideal Pick: #39 Jason Robertson
Had Jason Robertson not still been available, Hague would likely have been seen as the top pick at #34. Another player with exceptional size, he remains over 100 games away from reaching his 400-game breakout season. Although he hasn’t yet put up prolific point totals, he has solidified the third defensive pair, providing VGK with valuable depth on the blue line.
VGK: #62 Jake Leschyshyn
Ideal Pick: #63 Fabian Zetterlund
Zetterlund scored 24 goals and totaled 44 points on a struggling Sharks team last year. His -34 rating may largely stem from the team’s overall performance, and he possesses potential that Leschyshyn might not have. If Zetterlund manages to secure his place in the lineup, he could showcase considerable upside.
In the NHL, it seems he will more likely find himself in a fourth-line role. At the age of 25, he played just one game with the Rangers last season.
Honorable mentions from this draft include a couple of fourth-round treasures:
#111 Jeremy Swayman
#121 Drake Batherson
2018
This draft was undeniably poor. While it featured top talents like Dahlin, Svechnikov, B. Tkachuk, Q. Hughes, and Bouchard, it also included disappointments such as Kotkaniemi, Zadina, A. Boqvist, and Kravtsov within the top 10. The scarcity of genuine NHL players was evident beyond the first round, contributing to the draft’s lackluster reputation.
VGK: #61 Ivan Morozov
Ideal Choice: #61 Ivan Morozov
One could argue for Jordan Harris or a few goalies with potential, but given Morozov’s performance in the KHL this past season, I believe this gamble remains the best option. Players who achieve point-per-game status in the KHL are rare, and at 24, Morozov recorded 38 points in 37 games last year.
VGK: #115 Paul Cotter
Ideal Choice: #120 Philip Kurashev
The verdict is still out on this decision, depending on how one evaluates what each player contributes. Cotter has served as a versatile energy player, lacking in points but providing intangibles that Kurashev may not offer. Kurashev found himself playing alongside Connor Bedard last season and managed to score 54 points in 75 games.
2019
VGK: #17 Peyton Krebs
Ideal Choice: #18 Thomas Harley
Similar to Cody Glass, another highly regarded VGK prospect who moved away, Krebs has struggled to carve out a significant role in Buffalo. This season is vital for Krebs; without a position on a scoring line, he is likely to end up as a bottom-six player in the NHL. Conversely, Thomas Harley is an impressive player. At just 23, he scored 15 goals and 47 points last season while often playing second fiddle to Miro Heiskanen in Dallas. It appears that in recent drafts, the Dallas Stars have been strategically outmaneuvering others, stockpiling later-round picks with considerable potential.
VGK: #41 Kaeden Korczak
Ideal Choice: #41 Kaedan Korczak
Korczak is projected to be a strong defensive presence on the blue line, and considering second and third-round alternatives, I don’t see a better option available at this time. The next reasonable comparison would be #68 Zac Jones.
VGK: #79 Pavel Dorofyev
Ideal Choice: #98 Matias Maccelli
I don’t view Dorofyev as a missed opportunity; he may exceed Maccelli’s numbers now that he seems poised to step into a larger role following the exits of Marchessault, Stephenson, and Carrier. While Maccelli has already established himself, there’s significant upside with Dorofyev.
2020
VGK: #29 Brendan Brisson
Ideal Choice: #45 Brock Faber
This isn’t a criticism of Brisson; rather, it acknowledges the LA Kings for selecting Brock Faber at #45. Few anticipated a rookie season with 47 points from him. Brisson gained some NHL experience last season, recording 8 points in 15 games, and with recent departures, he may have the opportunity to earn substantial ice time this season.
VGK: #68 Lukas Cormier
Ideal Choice: #69 Alexander Nikishin
Similar to Brisson, this comparison highlights not only Cormier’s situation but also Carolina’s exceptional find with the 69th pick. Standing 6’3″ and weighing 216 pounds, Nikishin has dominated the KHL, amassing 56 points in 67 games, including 17 goals driven by his powerful shot.
2021
VGK: #30 Zack Dean
Perfect Pick: #47 Logan Stankoven
At #30, Zack Dean came as a bit of a surprise; he is considered a “safe” choice with a low upside, and he is performing as expected. Conversely, Dallas struck gold once again by selecting “The Stank” at #47. The only reason he dropped this low was due to his height, listed at 5′ 8″, but this selection appears to be a major win. He excelled in the AHL, racking up 57 points in 47 games, and when he was called up, he played a crucial role in the Stars’ playoff journey, clearly showing he belongs in the NHL.
The “What if” team features four players from the Dallas Stars:
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson
Logan Stankoven
Thomas Harley
Let’s take a look at some young talents that were available when the Knights made their pick but passed on, alongside two players they truly nailed:
Jason Robertson - Robert Thomas – Drake Batherson
Philip Kurashev – Casey Middlestadt – Logan Stankoven
Mattias Maccelli – Ivan Morozov – Fabian Zetterlund
Thomas Harley – Brock Faber
Alexander Nikishin – Kaeden Korczak
Jake Oettinger
Jeremy Swayman
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Hindsight in the Desert: Evaluating the Golden Knights’ NHL Drafts Over Five Seasons
The Golden Knights’ Draft Strategy: An Overview
Since their inception in 2017, the Vegas Golden Knights have made a significant impact on the NHL landscape. Under the leadership of General Manager Kelly McCrimmon, the franchise has focused on building a competitive team through strategic drafting. Evaluating their draft picks over the last five seasons provides insight into their long-term vision and immediate impact on the ice.
Season-by-Season Breakdown of Draft Picks
2017 NHL Draft: Laying the Foundation
The inaugural draft for the Golden Knights was pivotal. Las Vegas held several valuable picks that would set the tone for future success.
- 1st Round (6th Overall): Cody Glass (C)
- 2nd Round (38th Overall): Nick Suzuki (C)
- 3rd Round (61st Overall): Erik Brannstrom (D)
While Cody Glass showed promise, he has faced challenges with consistency. However, Nick Suzuki emerged as a star with the Montreal Canadiens, highlighting the complexities of drafting.
2018 NHL Draft: Building the Core
In the 2018 draft, the Golden Knights continued to focus on high-potential players to bolster their core.
- 1st Round (13th Overall): Jacob Brana (RW)
- 2nd Round (34th Overall): Nicolas Hague (D)
- 3rd Round (66th Overall): Lucas Elvenes (LW)
Nicolas Hague has become a reliable defenseman for the Knights, proving the value of the Knights’ scouting department.
2019 NHL Draft: Aiming for Depth
The 2019 draft focused on creating depth throughout the lineup.
- 1st Round (17th Overall): Peyton Krebs (C)
- 3rd Round (91st Overall): Matyas Kvich (D)
- 4th Round (122nd Overall): Ivan Morozov (RW)
Peyton Krebs has shown flashes of brilliance and continues to develop into a key player for the Knights.
2020 NHL Draft: Strategic Moves
In 2020, the Knights made strategic decisions to address specific needs.
- 1st Round (29th Overall): Jack Dugan (LW)
- 2nd Round (61st Overall): Lukas Parik (G)
- 3rd Round (73rd Overall): Layton Ahac (D)
Jack Dugan has since made notable contributions, showcasing the Golden Knights’ commitment to fostering talent.
2021 NHL Draft: Fresh Talent
The 2021 draft was crucial for the Knights looking to enhance their roster depth and future prospects.
- 1st Round (30th Overall): Zach Dean (C)
- 2nd Round (No. 62): Daniil Chayka (D)
- 3rd Round (No. 98): Carter Dineen (D)
Zach Dean’s selection illustrates the Knights’ focus on skillful centers, a priority in modern hockey dynamics.
Evaluating Draft Success: Key Metrics
To gauge the effectiveness of the Golden Knights’ drafts, several metrics should be considered:
- Player Development: How well have drafted players transitioned into the NHL?
- Impact on Team Performance: Have the drafted players contributed significantly to the team’s success?
- Trade Value: Can the drafted players be leveraged in trades for established stars?
Benefits of a Strong Draft Class
An impactful draft class can provide various benefits to an NHL team, including:
- Cost-Effective Talent: Drafted players typically come at a lower salary compared to free agents, allowing teams to allocate resources elsewhere.
- Long-Term Success: A solid draft foundation helps ensure sustained success, providing a pipeline of talent to replace aging veterans.
- Fan Engagement: Homegrown talent often resonates with fans, fostering a strong community connection.
Case Studies: Standout Draft Picks
Cody Glass: Promise and Challenges
Cody Glass, the Golden Knights’ first-ever draft pick, showcased immense talent early in his career. However, injuries and inconsistency led to his trade to the Nashville Predators. His journey serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of player development.
Nicolas Hague: Defensive Rock
Nicolas Hague has emerged as a staple on the Golden Knights’ blue line. His ability to log significant minutes and contribute offensively has made him a crucial component of the team’s success.
First-Hand Experience: The Fan Perspective
As a fan attending games since the Knights’ inaugural season, it’s been fascinating to witness the evolution of the team through their draft selections. The excitement of seeing young talent develop into key players has made the experience even more rewarding. Players like Peyton Krebs and Nicolas Hague have not only contributed on the ice but have also become fan favorites, creating a sense of community and pride among the fanbase.
Future Outlook: What Lies Ahead for the Golden Knights?
Looking forward, the Golden Knights must continue to refine their draft strategy. With an ever-competitive landscape in the NHL, focusing on scouting, player development, and strategic picks will be vital for maintaining their position as playoff contenders.
Conclusion
As the Golden Knights reflect on their first five years in the NHL, evaluating their draft classes offers valuable insights into the team’s philosophy and future direction. With a commitment to developing homegrown talent and addressing team needs through the draft, the Knights are poised to continue their quest for the Stanley Cup.
| Year | 1st Round Pick | Notable Players | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Cody Glass | Nick Suzuki | C |
| 2018 | Jacob Brana | Nicolas Hague | RW |
| 2019 | Peyton Krebs | Matyas Kvich | C |
| 2020 | Jack Dugan | Lukas Parik | LW |
| 2021 | Zach Dean | Daniil Chayka | C |
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